Author: David Mckee

Did somebody screw the pooch at Penn Entertainment? It appears to have flubbed its ESPN Bet launch, judging by its 4Q23 numbers, which were an interactive bath in red ink. J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff called them “much (much) larger … than what we were expecting … We think investors were bracing for a wide range of Interactive losses, but the magnitude of the absolute dollar value is, we think, surprising.” He had anticipated a loss of $180 million (the Wall Stree consensus was $151 million) and Penn came in -$334 million. Wow. We knew ESPN Bet-related promos had been—well, the word “generous” is inadequate. But we never anticipated this. And when you’ve lost Greff you’ve lost Wall Street.

Perplexity was the mood of J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff when confronted with MGM Resorts International‘s 4Q23 numbers, as “there were lots of moving parts.” Cash flow came in 1% higher than expected and Las Vegas Strip-derived cash flow of $864 million was way above Greff’s $794 million forecast. However, he discounted $50 million of that due to high hold percentages in table games (read: players were exceptionally unlucky). Macao generated cash flow of $262 million where Greff had expected $236 million. And regional cash flow—$233 million—well undershot Greff’s anticipated $264 million, J.P. Morgan having admittedly underestimated the hit MGM Grand Detroit would take from last autumn’s strike. Greff’s price target edged up two dollars to $54/share, a conservative move.

Thanks in part to a boost from the Las Vegas Grand Prix, high-end Wynn Resorts was able to “squash forecasts,” according to an impressed Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank. His price target on WYNN stock leapt from $124/share to $132 on the strength of a 4Q23 that surpassed Wall Street‘s expectations. (J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff added $5 to his $113/share price target.) Wynn Resorts brought in fourth-quarter cash flow of $632 million, $69 million more than Street analysts anticipated. Wynn’s Macao assets outperformed, with the older ones achieving 74% of pre-Covid cash-flow volume: “We believe this is likely to put to rest some of the structural concerns around the Peninsula in general.” The company’s Chinese flotilla also maintained its share (14.5%) of the mass market.

Fourth-quarter results from the far-flung empire of Las Vegas Sands were lauded by J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff as “solid.” He wrote that they “should be viewed favorably in relation to recently subdued investors’ expectations and China-macro-concern-driven awful investor sentiment.” Looking ahead to this year and the next, he projected continued mass-market-propelled growth for Sands in both Macao and especially Singapore (which is really driving the bus right now), where Sands enjoys a duopoly.