Author: David Mckee

Although only 41% of all precincts have reported, it’s clear that both tribal and private-sector gaming suffered a stunning defeat in California last night. Both the tribes’ Proposition 26 and Big Gaming’s Proposition 27 are losing—and by wider margins than expected. 70% of Californians voted “no” on Prop 26 and 83% nixed Prop 27. The only clear winners in this scenario are the Golden State’s card rooms, which surely would have been litigated out of existence had Prop 26 passed (due to some fine print in the ballot measure).

Prop 27’s backers are now spinning that this was just a dry run for 2024. Before anybody files another ballot initiative, we urge both sides to come to the table and try to hammer out their differences. This would include A) tribal-private partnerships, B) a lower cost of entry, unlike Prop 27’s minimum of $10 million, C) a reasonable tax rate such as Prop 26’s 10% and D) no more dissembling about what your proposition is about, like ending homelessness. It’s about sports betting—and voters saw clear through you. Oh, and ixnay the hundreds of millions of dollars in attack ads; it’s a surefire path to defeat.

In other news …

Continue reading Election Special: Gaming, tribes lose big

“It’s kind of fun to do the impossible,” said Walt Disney. For the leadership of DraftKings, “the impossible” would include finding a path to near-term profitability. DKNG reported 3Q22 numbers late last week and J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff called the projected, year-end negative return on investment “worse than expected.” And it gets more adverse next year, when DraftKings is expected to return [sic] $110 million more negative ROI than Wall Street anticipated. “This is disappointing as this outlook follows recent 3Q22 earnings commentary from DKNG’s OSB/Digital competitors … who have talked up an accelerated path to profitability and suggests that DKNG is lagging peers on a path to positive EBITDA generation.” Oh sure, DraftKings might produce a positive ROI … in 14 months or maybe break even in 2024. But the company continues to get less bang for its buck, in terms of revenue and market share than (privately held) rival Fan Duel.

Continue reading DraftKings tumbles big-time; Big Gaming bets on red

In the end, all that talk of Caesars Entertainment selling a Las Vegas Strip asset was just a sham. The company probably couldn’t find any takers for the Flamingo at CEO Tom Reeg‘s preposterous asking price (ditto his equally preposterous conditions for vending Planet Hollywood). Reeg’s explanation was “We ran into a market where the cash flow of the asset continued to increase and the ability of buyers to raise financing made it a very easy decision for us to keep.” Never mind that his decision blows a $1 billion-$2.5 billion hole in the strategy to pay down the company’s groaning $13.3 billion debt load. (If there is a recession, God forbid, Caesars will be in a boatload of trouble.) In the end, nobody was going to pay $2.5 billion for the Flamingo and even Planet Ho would be a heavy lift at that price.

Continue reading Caesars Strip-tease; Slot flea swatted; Biden targets resort fees

Do Station Casinos execs really want to double their footprint in seven years? Yesterday they reported flat 3Q22 revenues of $414.5 million, all but $3 million of which were Vegas-derived, unwittingly highlighting the company’s exposure to a single market. Company leadership promised better times ahead—and soon. CFO Stephen Cootey spun the disappointing first blush by pointing out that, on a same-store basis, it was the best third quarter in the company’s history. Although foot traffic was flat with 2Q22, Cootey said spending trends are strong, with F&B recording its best third quarter ever. While pledging not to look into his crystal ball, CEO Frank Fertitta III said, “We don’t see anything that would suggest that it will be any different than it has been historically, other than the last third quarter, when we had a bunch of stimulus money in the economy that may have made things a little harder to read.” In other words, comparisons to to 3Q21 don’t count.

Continue reading Station accentuates positives; Wynn gets richer, Adelson poorer

Bad economy? Not if you’re Boyd Gaming. The regional giant significantly improved third-quarter income, from $843 million in 3Q21 to $877 million this year. Said CEO Keith Smith, “Continuing into October, customer spending has been very consistent with the trends we’ve seen throughout this year. While there are clearly headwinds in the economy, we haven’t seen any meaningful change in our customers’ behavior.” Rated play was up 5%, compensating for a faling-off of unrated, stimulus-driven spending. Hotel revenue was also up 5% and occupancies up 6%, those rooms being filled with what Smith characterized as high-value guests (10% higher gaming win). Food and beverage was a revenue geyser, jumping 11% and nowhere was business better than in Sin City’s Downtown, where earnings leapt 17.5% to $49.5 million, driven by the reopening of Main Street Station and by the return of business from Hawaii, a Boyd mainstay.

Continue reading Bullish for Boyd; Abbott does Texas two-step; D.C. remorse