Author: David Mckee

Forgive me if I get personal for a moment. Yesterday, in a fit of depression brought on by an impending medical procedure, I mentioned “life-threatening surgery.” Well, the surgical procedures for which I was scheduled (which involved removal of a vertebra, and the insertion of many rods and screws) is life-threatening but no longer imminent. After an agonizing risk/benefit analysis, I concluded that the former outweighed the latter and the status quo could be maintained for another six months or year, or maybe more. (The prospect of having my neck largely immobilized for life weighed heavily against the surgery.) From this I have drawn a few lessons …

While tourists were more open-handed than ever, cash flow among Las Vegas locals may be drying up, as win/day fell 11% from September. By contrast, the same metric from the Las Vegas Strip was +6%. Further tipping the scales against locals-oriented casinos was the fact that Oct. 31 fell on a Sunday, meaning that two days of weekend slot revenue will be sloughed into November, per ancient Nevada accounting quirk. No need for crying towels: Locals still shed 3% more than in 2019. Slot win was up 2% on 11% more coin-in. That paled in comparison to the Strip, though, up a whopping 30%. Strip slot revenue of $368 million rose 21% on 26% more coin-in (and lower hold) while non-baccarat table win was 26% higher on 49% greater wagering. But the number that gladdened casino executives’ hearts the most was the amazing, 63% rise in baccarat win ($91 million)—even before international players have returned in earnest—despite 13% less wagering. Overall, Strip casinos won $702 million.

Floridians, we hope you enjoyed sports betting for all of the three weeks in which it was legal in the Sunshine State. Why? Because last night a federal judge struck down the Seminole Tribe‘s new compact with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Basically, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland screwed up and approved a compact that violates the terms of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. (Still unresolved is the state constitutionality of the compact, which is dubious at best.) District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich threw out the Biden administration’s daffy interpretation that gambling in cyberspace is happening on “tribal lands” so long as that’s where the servers are located, a line of reasoning the court dismissed as “fiction.”

Wrote Friedrich, “over a dozen provisions in IGRA regulate gaming on ‘Indian lands,’ and none regulate gaming in another location. Indeed, if there were any doubt on the issue, the Supreme Court has emphasized that ‘[e]verything—literally everything—in IGRA affords tools … to regulate gaming on Indian lands, and nowhere else.’” Chastising Haaland, the judge continued, “The Secretary must reject compacts that violate IGRA’s terms.” As gaming law expert Daniel Wallach said, “The avalanche of legal authority was on the side of invalidating online sports betting. She recognized the obvious—that a customer located in Jacksonville or Key West or Pensacola is not on Indian land when they initiate the wager.” He added that “the state of Florida and the Seminole Tribe were operating in a state of delusion.” (You can place tribal sports bets in Michigan, Arizona and Connecticut … but only if you’re on Native American land at the time.)

Cumulative Internet gambling and sports betting revenues racked up $134 million last month, the vast majority going to i-gaming, some $110 million. Sports books essentially gave away the store, with 81% of revenues going right back out the door in promotions (and this was a decrease from September). BetMGM dominated i-gaming with $41.5 million, followed by DraftKings ($20 million), FanDuel ($17.5 million), BetRivers ($7 million), Golden Nugget Online ($5 million) and Barstool Sports ($4.5 million). There are quite a few other operators in the Wolverine State but their grosses rarely add up to beans. As for sports betting, handle was an impressive $463 million but erstwhile favorite son BetMGM was only third with 22% market share, lagging FanDuel (27%) and DraftKings (26%). Fighting for scraps were Barstool (9%) and Caesars Sportsbook (8%), leaving precious little for anybody else.

When the bets were paid off, it was a decisive win for FanDuel, which netted $10 million to BetMGM’s $7.5 million and DraftKings’ $3 million. Caesars was the only other operator to break the $1 million threshold. Among those making little or nothing (and perhaps overdue to reconsider their Michigan presence) were Golden Nugget, BetRivers, Parx, Four Winds and WynnBet.

New Jersey giveth, New Jersey taketh away. The priority of the Lege’s lame-duck session will not be ending smoking in Atlantic City casinos but something much nearer and dearer to casino executives’ hearts: Revising the PILOT (Payment In Lieu of Taxes) program. This is the brainchild of outgoing state Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D), prompting one wag to comment, “Perhaps he hopes to get a job at a casino so he can have a third pension.” The big, juicy incentive to get Big Gaming to go along is the exemption of sports betting and i-gaming from PILOT revenue calculations, a big gimme.

The casinos’ compliance will be needed in some cases because their PILOT fees will be going way up, usually if they have been engaged in capex reinvestment. We frown upon this because it creates a fiscal disincentive to improve one’s property (slumlords like Donald Trump, in his Boardwalk days, would have loved it). For instance, Borgata would slide down from $29 million due this year to $23 million in 2025. By contrast, Hard Rock Atlantic City would be walloped with a 100% increase from $8 million to $16 million.