Author: David Mckee

Las Vegas Strip room rates continue to demonstrate sustained strength through October and, get this, midweek traffic is driving the bus. Overall, weekday prices are up 22% versus 17% on weekends. MGM Resorts International is the pace car, +24% midweek and up 10% on the weekend for the Oct. 24-30 period. Caesars Entertainment is up 17% midweek and 24% on weekends, while Wynncore is surging 23% on weekdays but surprisingly off a point on the weekend. Another surprise is that Venelazzo is, compared to 2019, almost flat midweek, up just 2% but recoups that on the weekend, hopping 40%.

Analyst Joseph Greff and his JP Morgan colleagues recently studied the travel industry and were able to confirm that a recovery is underway but were unable to nail down a consensus for when it would leave the launch pad. Greff’s bottom line was “business travel restarts will occur over the next few quarters with a spike in 1Q22.” A plus for hoteliers: Room rates will drift upward after the pandemic. Not so good: Technological changes (as in virtual meetings) are here to stay. Not coincidentally, travel budgets for 2022 will be lower than expected. Resorts World Las Vegas can rejoice in the news that Hilton Hotels “was the clear favorite to gain share post-pandemic, surprising to us given the lopsidedness of the results.”

Casinos on the Las Vegas Strip grossed $626 million last month, 20% better than August 2019. Statewide, the jump was 22% to $1.65 billion but the real overachievers were locals casinos, leaping 41% (to $250 million) with a little help from end-of-July slot revenues that were literally dumped into the early August grosses. Locals also demonstrated more resilience, down just 3% from an epic July, whereas the Strip slipped 21% month/month. Strip slot win was $358 million, a 38% vault on 26% more coin-in (plus tighter hold). Table game win—$259 million—was relatively static, up a point, on 4% higher wagering. Subtract baccarat and it looked better, 7% more win on 12% larger betting. Not that baccarat was bad: Win was down 7% and play was 8% lower, pretty good when you consider the game’s high volatility.

Reflecting the irrational exuberance surrounding the Las Vegas Strip, it’s a done deal at The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas. The $3.9 billion resort’s physical assets sold for $4 billion, albeit to a cloudy “group of buyers that includes a Blackstone real estate investment trust.” So there may be some jiggery-pokery at work here. The big news was that MGM Resorts International was unable to resist the dangled bait that was the Cosmo’s operating company, paying a hefty $1.6 billion and change, plus $200 million in annual rent for the plum. Our sources say Cosmo cash flow is about two-thirds of pre-pandemic levels so either MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle is taking a big gamble or an infusion of M Life is just what the doctor ordered. Regardless, Blackstone is making out like a bandit on a property it bought for $1.7 billion back in 2014, as in $4.1 billion in windfall profits. It also reduces its exposure in its #1 market, Sin City.

Among those paying Blackstone far more than the Cosmo is worth is investment firm Stonepeak, as well as Panda Express founders Andrew and Peggy Cherng. The real winner in all this may Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg, who can ask several kings’ ransom for whichever Strip asset he chooses to put on the sell block next year (right now it’s looking like Bally’s Las Vegas). Hornbuckle and CFO Jonathan Halkyard claimed the Cosmo would expand MGM’s customer base but it’s hard to believe it isn’t the other way around. Regardless, they had to justify the megabucks they poured into a non-core asset. University of Nevada-Las Vegas boffin Amanda Bellarmino defended the splurge, saying, “The acquisition could help MGM to target younger travelers by acquiring this successful and attractive property.” (Wasn’t that what Park MGM was supposed to do?) Unlike predecessor Deutsche Bank, Blackstone knew how to run the Cosmo and the $500 million capex it put into the old gal clearly paid dividends.

Continuing JP Morgan‘s march through Las Vegas, senior analyst Joseph Greff met with Boyd Gaming CEO Keith Smith and CFO Josh Hirsberg. They seemed pleased, on the whole, marveling and the resilience of their customers, whose play was “amazingly consistent” no matter how many Covid-related mandates you throw at them. Downtown, they conceded was somewhat more of a challenge, given the lack of Hawaiian players. Spend per visitor, however, is above 2019 levels “which management attributed to a healthy consumer backdrop and a higher value customer coming through the doors.” This is some cooling-off in the regional markets, although Las Vegas locals and drive-in players remain stalwart. Boyd has even ceased marketing to low-value customers, what with Baby Boomers returning … albeit not yet at previous magnitude.

Management said it’s have trouble filling jobs, “noting that the shortage is somewhat limiting the amenities that can be offered.” That, in turn, is inhibiting revenue growth. Currently Boyd is at 60% of workforce strength compared to two years ago and “Surprisingly, the expiration of unemployment insurance/stimulus in some states has not resulted in people coming back to work.” Boyd is improving its profit margins by savaging marketing spending and relying less on full-time employees. (And they wonder why they’re having problems re-staffing.) Dark Eastside Cannery will remain so until January, possibly March. After all, it’s redundant to Sam’s Town next door, where business is “strong, but not overdone to level where additional capacity is needed.” A final bit of good news is that Boyd has gotten its leverage down to 3X equity or thereabouts, another sign of a company that rarely strays from sound business fundamentals.