Posted on 1 Comment

Gaming stocks rejiggered; Smoke blown at AGA

No, we don’t mean the Reddit/GameStop scandal, which has everyone from Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) up in arms. Instead, we’re looking at a downgrade of revenue estimates for a slew of projections by JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, who adds that “[We] prefer to buy on pullbacks, generally.” So it’s not exactly bad news. Noting a rise in Covid-19 infections and corresponding “impact of casino restrictions on regional gaming visitation and spend,” Greff trimmed his estimates and rethought his price target for a who’s-who of regional gaming: Churchill Downs, Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, Golden Entertainment, Penn National Gaming, Station Casinos and Scientific Gaming. While lowering his forecast for 1Q21, Greff said 2Q21 would be “modestly better.” This doesn’t jib with the optimistic picture painted yesterday by American Gaming Association President Bill Miller, whose advocacy body does its own revenue tracking.

Greff elaborated that “vaccination hopes (which we share theoretically) allow for a more pronounced and sustainable consumer spend recovery starting in the 3Q21; we also know what marketing and staffing changes have been made—some of which are permanent—and have conviction that forward-year margins should be decently higher than pre-COVID-19 levels.” He added that gaming had been bolstered through a soft brick-and-mortar period by gains in sports betting and Internet play. He stuck with his price target for Station ($31/share) and added two bucks to his Boyd goal (to $54). The reasons have been well-rehearsed in this space, so we’ll skip them for now. He really likes Caesars, upping his target $6 to $89/share, noting that its William Hill purchase and i-gaming strategy are firming up nicely. “Additionally, CZR is attractively positioned for the return of the 55+ customer base to its casinos (we think this gains momentum along with vaccine distribution). During this period of COVID-19 related lockdowns/limited discretionary spend, many 55+ Caesars Rewards members have benefitted from increased savings and record-high home values and stock prices.”

Continue reading Gaming stocks rejiggered; Smoke blown at AGA
Posted on 3 Comments

Las Vegas recovery: A definite maybe; Woe at Sands

First, the bad news. Las Vegas emerged from a December that was just plain awful, as discretionary income continues to dry up. Las Vegas Strip win plummeted 51% to $292 million. Statewide, gambling revenue toppled 35.5% for $684 million, an even poorer showing than we expected. The closest thing to a bright spot was the play of Las Vegas locals, who left ‘only’ 17% less year/year in the slots and on the tables. Heck, it would have been worse had November not ended on a weekend, thereby carrying some late-month income into December when the slots were tallied. This occurred at the same time that various amen corners are saying the future’s so bright we’re going to need sunglasses. Perhaps so, but the December numbers give us an idea of how far we have to go to get back to ‘normal.’

Looser hold didn’t help Strip casinos, whose slot winnings fell 55% on 43% less coin-in. Table-game win ($141 million) fell 46% on 44% less wagering. It’s worse than it looks because the Strip had a relatively good month at baccarat, winning 16% less despite 50% lower play. Not even Circa could save Downtown, off 28% to $45.5 million, whilst North Las Vegas slipped 34% to $19 million. The Boulder Strip stumbled 24.5% to $62 million, Laughlin dipped 19.5% to $26.5 million and miscellaneous Clark County was down 6% to $100.5 million. Utahns came to the rescue of Mesquite, flat at $11 million. Upstate, things looked slightly better. Reno slid 16% to $44 million and volatile Lake Tahoe was relatively mild, down 14% to $15.5 million. Wendover was off 10% to $16 million. Maybe that last-minute Trump administration economic-diversification won’t be so bad for Wendover Will after all. And with that we draw the curtain on a year that Nevadans would heartily prefer to forget.

Continue reading Las Vegas recovery: A definite maybe; Woe at Sands
Posted on 1 Comment

Quote of the Day

“If you have this amenity and there’s sports betting at the card rooms, you might add 250 jobs and the secondary effect of those jobs. We have over 2,200 employees in the state. They’re great-paying jobs with an average salary above $75,000. They’re able to support their families, and they’re needed in this state.”—Maverick Gaming owner Eric Persson on ending tribal exclusivity to offer sports betting in Washington State.

Posted on 2 Comments

Profile in cowardice; Sheldon Adelson’s ghost

We were sure this was a story from The Onion or the Babylon Bee but, no, it’s really a thing. Rodney Baker has resigned as CEO of Great Canadian Gaming Corp. after bringing disgrace upon it with a vaccination caper that made international headlines. He and his Russian trophy wife Ekaterina (young enough to be his daughter) flew to Yukon then—allegedly—chartered a private plan to the remote town of Beaver Creek. Once there, Baker, who makes $10.5 million a year, and his princess passed themselves off as employees of a local motel (allegedly) in order to qualify for high-priority Covid-19 vaccinations. Once they got what they wanted, they decided to skip town ASAP. Being afflicted with stupidity as well as an overweening sense of entitlement, they made the mistake of asking for a ride to the airport. Red flags went up and pretty soon the Mounties were on the case … and they always get their man.

It would be great to see Canadian authorities throw the book at these two freeloaders but it’s a light book: $1,150 in fines (already levied) and an optional six months in the clink, which seems highly unlikely. Needless to say, public outrage is running high. “We are deeply concerned by the actions of individuals who put our Elders and vulnerable people at risk to jump the line for selfish purposes,” remarked White River First Nation Chief Angela Demit. “Effectively what they did was they put our community and our isolation team at risk,” added Yukon Community Services Minister John Streicker. “I’m pretty angry at the whole thing.” Great Canadian did not comment on Baker’s precipitate departure but perhaps we should give the last word to Mrs. Baker, whose public posture earlier in the pandemic was, “I stay home to be part of the solution. Everyone, stay home. It’s the right thing to do.” Right then, wrong now.

Continue reading Profile in cowardice; Sheldon Adelson’s ghost
Posted on 1 Comment

Life after Adelson; Super Bowl odds revealed

Taking a business-as-usual approach, Las Vegas Sands reported 4Q20 earnings and JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wasn’t blown away, writing that “we, like most investors, see the quarter and any outlook commentary offering little in the way of positive developments for Macau … given recent COVID-19 infection spikes in China and ensuing tightened control over tourist visa issuance for mainlanders to visit Macau.” Given the rampant nature of Coronavirus, Greff foresees but a “modest” boost from Chinese New Year. Mass-market tables and slots were down 64% year/year and VIP win fell 76%. Still, that’s a big improvement from 3Q20, when business was negligible. Greff pegs 3Q21 as the time Macao will come back. He recommended buying Macao-centric stocks, citing Melco Resorts & Entertainment, as well as “fatigue” about the pace of Macao’s comeback and that they are “under-owned in general.”

Continue reading Life after Adelson; Super Bowl odds revealed
Posted on 3 Comments

Louisiana doldrums; Philadelphia Live sparkles

Does reporting bad news get tedious? You bet! But it comes with the turf. Louisiana casino winnings declined 23% last month, in keeping with the national average. Penn National Gaming casinos got off easiest, slipping 11%, while Boyd Gaming ones tumbled 25% and Caesars Entertainment plunged 38%. The latter wasn’t helped by the continued closure of Isle Grand Palais, a hurricane victim. The statewide gross was $162 million. Capacity limits (50%) and reductions in gaming positions (-75%) remain severe, though a larger economic malaise appears to be in play.

Baton Rouge got off by far the easiest, down 7%, led by L’Auberge Baton Rouge (pictured) with $12.5 million, a 1% gain. Casino Rouge was 11.5% off the pace at $4 million, while ancient Belle of Baton Rouge deservedly plummeted 44% to $1 million. In Lake Charles, market share was best defended by Golden Nugget, grossing $24 million and down 8%. L’Auberge Lake Charles slid 19.5% to $23 million and Delta Downs shed 18% to $12 million. New Orleans suffered the most of any market, with Harrah’s New Orleans emaciated 37.5% to $16.5 million. Runner-up was Boomtown New Orleans, down 14.5% to $8 million, while Treasure Chest notched $6 million, a 28% spill, and Fair Grounds racino eked out $2.5 million, a 33% dive. Amelia Belle scraped up $2 million, down 32.5%.

Continue reading Louisiana doldrums; Philadelphia Live sparkles
Posted on 1 Comment

Adelson rolling in grave; Police blotter

It’s a good thing Sheldon Adelson didn’t live to see this. The First Circuit Court of Appeals quashed a 2019 reinterpretation of the Federal Wire Act by the Justice Department, one that broadly applied it to Internet gambling. The federal court agreed with a New Hampshire one that the Office of Legal Counsel had erred and that the Wire Act only applies to interstate sports betting. The case had been brought by the New Hampshire Lottery “We find the plaintiffs’ claims are justiciable and that the Wire Act applies only to interstate wire communication related to sports events or contests,” sayeth the court. Unless the Joseph Biden administration pursues this to the Supreme Court (highly unlikely), Eric Holder‘s narrow, 2011 interpretation of the Act will stand. In other words, the First Circuit has driven a stake through the heart of the anti-Internet-gaming movement, or what’s left of it.

Were Adelson still around and the First Circuit had upheld the 2019 revision, he wound have found himself in an awkward position. Earlier this week, ace reporter James Rutherford revealed that Las Vegas Sands “was in discussions with potential partners to enter the sports betting business, a move that would take the company down the internet gambling path which Adelson so vehemently opposed.” That would make Adelson even more of a pious fraud than he already was on the Internet issue. It’s a disservice to Sands shareholders that the company has missed the online-sports-betting boat, although it’s in no position to capitalize i-gaming, not after having quit Pennsylvania.

Continue reading Adelson rolling in grave; Police blotter
Posted on Leave a comment

The Strip plays Capitol Hill

It was like the good old days of the Las Vegas Strip were back in full flower at President Biden’s inauguration. It featured two Strip headliners-in-limbo, Lady Gaga and Jennifer Lopez, as well as former headliner Garth Brooks, crossing party lines to deliver a moving “Amazing Grace.” Her Ladyship’s very personal rendition of “The Star-Spangled Banner” got the proceedings off to a rousing start and every performer gave hope of better times ahead for Sin City.

Continue reading The Strip plays Capitol Hill
Posted on 3 Comments

Icahn saves Trump Dump; Disaster in Pennsylvania

Carl Icahn‘s abusive-codependent attachment to Trump Plaza knows no ends. In his latest gambit, the magnate has kiboshed the implosion of the ramshackle ex-casino that had been slated for sometime in February, by dint of obtaining a cease-and-desist order. Instead, dismantling of the crumbling relic will continue at a stately pace, with plans for the site still unknown. At least Icahn, who has repeatedly embarrassed Atlantic City, showed some grace this time. He short-circuited Mayor Marty Small‘s auction of the demolition rights by matching the leading bid—$175,000—and donating it to the Boys & Girls Clubs of Atlantic City. Our sincere thanks for that, Uncle Carl. “From the beginning, we thought the auction and any other related spectacle presented a safety risk, and we were always clear we did not want to participate in any way,” said an Icahn mouthpiece. Opined The Press of Atlantic City, “We hope this happy ending opens the way for redevelopment of the Plaza site for the benefit of all.” We hope so too.

Continue reading Icahn saves Trump Dump; Disaster in Pennsylvania