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No Time to Panic!

I recently entered a local casino shortly after 4 a.m. and swiped my card at the kiosk. On the screen read words to the effect of “Unable to Access Your Card at This Time!” I swiped at an adjacent kiosk and received the same message.

This could mean several things. One possibility was that the casino was doing daily maintenance — such as, for example, calculating multipliers from the previous day. This happens sometime “early” in the morning. Maybe 2 a.m. Maybe 3 a.m. Maybe 4 a.m. Depends on the casino. This was the most benign thing that could happen. I hoped this was the explanation.

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Ace versus JT in 9-5 Super Double Bonus

To get the most out of the January Promotion of the Month at South Point, you need to play $8,000 in coin-in, four days a week. For every $2,000 coin-in played, you get a virtual spin. In the past, this virtual spin has averaged more than $12, which adds 0.60% to the return. Since this is normally a slot club worth 0.30%, for four days a week you get triple points for the first $8,000 coin-in. (This would be equivalent to 9x points at casinos that offer a 0.10% slot club).

Playing $8,000 coin-in a day is an impossible amount for nickel single-line players, and no-big-deal to $5 and higher players. The question is:  What games do they have that combine a decent return and enough coin-in per play that it won’t take you all day to do it?

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How Would You Do It?

On the videopoker.com forum, a player recently wrote about coming across a quarter Five Play Super Times Play machine that consistently had a 5x multiplier. Every hand. He milked it for 45 minutes or so for almost $4,000 and left — happy to get away undetected. 

Let’s say, however, that you want to milk the machine as long as it lasts. How would you go about doing it? 

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Multiple Drawing Entries

There are many casinos with promotions where the player can earn extra drawing tickets during certain periods, such as 5x tickets during 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. on Fridays, or perhaps 10x tickets all day Tuesday. 

To the player, whether 5x drawing tickets is worth more or less than 2x points depends on the value of each. You can usually figure out exactly how much 2x points is worth and it will always be an estimate of how much 5x drawing tickets is worth. 

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Dealing with Money

I recently received an email from a slot director with whom I’m friendly. It read: 

I’ve had a number of customers ask me what banks in Las Vegas are gambler friendly, meaning they understand how “professional gambler” is an actual profession and as such, banks would be used to multiple deposits, withdrawals etc. in varying amounts and timing.

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Winning a Drawing

I get inspiration for columns from all sorts of places. This was a question sent in to [email protected] for Richard and me to answer on the podcast. I will answer it there the next time we have a “Bob and Richard answer their mail” show (which is usually when we haven’t been able to schedule a guest for that week), but I’ll answer it here first.

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When You’re No Longer Welcome

Let’s assume that your local casino has taken away your player’s card, meaning you can no longer receive most of the benefits from playing there. For the sake of today’s discussion, you are still allowed to play there without a card if you like. Further, assume that you insist on playing with an edge or not at all.

What do you do now?

First, sometimes you can talk your way back into being able to play with the card. Not often. But sometimes. If winning the drawings too many times was the reason for your ouster from the club, for example, perhaps agreeing to not enter certain categories of drawings will be enough. Perhaps agreeing to not play certain machines will work, or not playing on certain point multiplier days. Whatever. Being in the club is better than not being in the club if this option is possible. 

If this is not possible, you need to look closely at whether there are games you ignored before that could be playable at least some of the time. The most likely candidates for this would be progressives. Sometimes a 9/5 Double Double Bonus machine (97.87% at reset) with one or more progressives can be a profitable game to play when the progressives are high enough. Not every day. Certainly not every time you check. But sometimes.

The best book on how to evaluate progressives is Frank Kneeland’s The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives. Some of the information presented in the book is dated, but I don’t know of any better source. If you can find and hook up with other pros playing progressives, perhaps they can show you the ropes. 

In general, you need a bigger bankroll to play progressives than you do playing games with a 4,000-coin royal flush simply because a higher percentage of your return is in the relatively-rare royal flush. You lose much faster between royals than you do at games that start out with a higher return. In addition to the physical bankroll, you need a psychological bankroll to survive at this. Losing streaks will be longer. If you were barely scraping by financially before you got restricted, progressives are likely not a good option for you. 

On the other hand, sometimes progressives get big enough that you’ll have a 2% or larger advantage while playing them. You virtually never get advantages this high playing machines without progressives.

Advantage slots are another possibility. Sometimes it has to do with progressive meters. Sometimes it is a “must hit by” progressive and the meter is very close to the maximum. Sometimes it’s looking for a certain number of a particular kind of symbol, and when you find that condition, the game is beatable. How to recognize the games that are beatable is found on several sites on the Internet. Which of these sites provide the best information is something I can’t share with you simply because this is not an avenue I have pursued. 

There are players being kicked out of casinos for playing advantage slots these days. Since my face is relatively well known as a sharp machine player, I will get extra scrutiny if I play slots. And I expect my welcome will be short-lived. So, I haven’t even gone through the effort of learning which machines to play.

Particularly in Las Vegas, there are a LOT of players seeking out and playing advantage slots — which seriously reduces the likelihood of you coming across a playable game at any particular time. Success requires scouting — and sometimes being in the right place at the right time when someone leaves a machine that is in an advantageous state, but it can be done. In other locales, slot hustlers are less common, and you can do well at this.

Another option is to simply stop visiting this casino and patronize others. If you live in a place where there are a lot of casinos, this is no problem (assuming you haven’t been run off by too many of the other ones as well.) If you live in a place where there aren’t many casinos, this is tougher.

Some high limit players need to resort to playing dollar machines in order to keep playing. They have the bankroll to play higher, but they might not have the welcome or full benefits at the places that have the bigger machines. At a smaller level, some dollar players may need to resort to playing for quarters at other casinos to stay in the game.

Going the other way (meaning formerly playing quarters but being forced to play dollars at another casino in order to have an edge) doesn’t happen as frequently. Comparatively speaking, few quarter players are restricted at casinos. (It absolutely does sometimes happen, however.) If you are forced to move up in stakes, make sure you have the bankroll to do so. You can check bankroll requirements using the Video Poker for Winners software, or Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. The products yield similar results using very different methods of analysis.

Traveling to play is another option. Players in Las Vegas can travel to several locations in California, Northern Nevada, and elsewhere if they are out of places to play at home. I’m not going to tell you to go to the XYZ casino in such-and-such a city simply because publishing the play will likely kill it. These plays are out there, but you’re going to have to scout and network to find them. Players who have developed networks with other winning players will find out about these possibilities much faster than those who are starting from scratch. Traveling takes time and is not cheap. Some players do not have the time, interest, or resources to pursue this avenue.

A final option is to give up video poker and take up bowling — or any other activity you’re interested in. Some people will not be able to find beatable games within their bankroll. When this happens, some tough decisions need to be made. Using the suggestions in this article, however, will sometimes postpone for another day having to make that decision.  

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A Scholarship Offer

In last week’s column, I reprinted a seven-year-old article I wrote about Edward Thorp saying that gambling is a tax on ignorance, which I would amend to being a tax on the ignorant and the lazy.

Soon after I wrote that, John Chang (former long-time manager of the MIT blackjack team) appeared on GWAE and commented that while he agreed that gambling is a tax on the ignorant and the lazy, it also provides a scholarship for the smart and hard-working!

That’s exactly the way I look at gambling, although I accept the words “ignorant” and “lazy” as being relative terms and not absolute.

Simply put, beating a casino is difficult. You need to have some moxie. And even then, you need to spend a lot of time figuring out how to succeed. But that was largely what last week’s article was about. Today let’s talk more about what I mean by a “scholarship.” How do you get it? How do you keep it?

What I mean by scholarship is that if you do it right, the casinos pay you to come in and play intelligently. They do not do this on purpose. Their goal is not to support professional players. But that’s the way it works out.

Casinos do compete with each other and they do offer promotions to attract players. Some of these promotions are beatable. Some of the games are beatable. Play those!

Casino marketing people are not always savvy about doing the math on all promotions. This is a simplified generalization and not always true, but marketing types tend to be creative right-brained people while the ones who can figure out the math for promotions (for casino employees AND players) are left-brained people. When the promotions are developed by the right-brained marketing people, that is the time for you to play!

Casinos basically recycle money from the losing players and give it to the winning players, while keeping a small percentage to cover their own expenses and profit. If the casinos have enough losing players, they can afford to have a few winning players. 

Why knowing this is important is that if you want to win, you have to treat the losing players with respect! They pay for your golden goose! If you go around insulting them because they are playing 8/5 Jacks or Better when there’s 9/6 Jacks or Better a few aisles over, you’re jeopardizing your scholarship! 

(Yes, I know that my teaching others to identify good machines and play well hurts the players who already know how to play, and wish to keep the “secrets” to themselves. Whether anybody likes it or not, this is one of my chosen missions in life and I plan to continue on that mission indefinitely.)

The casino needs to make its profit somewhere. If nobody played the bad games, they would find it wasn’t profitable to offer the good games. If losing players got insulted when they came to the casino, that would take a lot of their pleasure away. It’s already an expensive activity for these players. If it isn’t fun, many will stop donating to your scholarship fund.

One key to keeping your scholarship is to not keep rubbing it into the casino’s face. There are players who keep playing until the casino kicks them out. For players who are comfortable being on the road all the time and always going to new places, that might be an okay procedure. But for those who want the golden goose to keep paying and paying, this is not a good plan. 

This means that if you get significantly ahead, stay away for a while. If you win more than one drawing in a short period of time, don’t enter any more for a few months. This also means, if you’re a winning player, don’t be loud and obnoxious or otherwise a pain in the ass to the casino. They will put up with unpleasant behavior if you’re a loser. But if you’re a winner, this gives them one more reason to kick you out.

Video poker players have an additional edge over other types of advantage gamblers in that we lose most of the time! Royal flushes are relatively rare. The time between royal flushes will usually consist of negative scores. A video poker player who wins every day is largely unknown — unless something fishy is going on. That lets casinos believe that your royal flushes are mainly luck and you’ll give it all back. And it lets losing players have their memory of that one night in 2016 when they hit two royal flushes. These players will return over and over trying to catch magic in a bottle again.