Category: Advice for Players

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The Cost of Tips

In mid-February, Andrew Uyal, a Las Vegas Strip casino pit boss, wrote in his Behind the Curtain column on the www.gamblingwithanedge.com site an article titled Who Actually Cares? It was about tipping. One of the comments made to his article was about my writing, so Uyal forwarded it to me to make sure I saw it. I’m going to address that today.

When Bob discusses how a given game in a given casino has a positive EV, I have never seen him factor in tokes in his highly detailed calculations despite his listing every other conceivable variable involved. It seems to me that giving up even $5 or $10 or more on big wins would have a substantial impact on beating the casino if one only hopes to beat the casino by ~.02%

Do APs refrain from toking, because it’s the only way to maintain a positive EV? If APs do tip when they win, why doesn’t Bob cost tips in his calculus for the EV of the games he plays?

I have written more than a dozen articles through the years about tipping. The Cliff Notes of my views are:

  1. Tipping is a personal matter. Everybody must decide for himself.
  2. I tip less than many other players.
  3. If I’m teaching at a casino, e.g. the South Point now but it has been other places as well over the years, I always tip at least $5 on every hand pay. I do not wish complaints about this to get upstairs which might affect my welcome.
  4. If I’m playing at a 15-machine bar, which abound in Nevada and very occasionally offer very lucrative games/promotions, the only casino employee on sight is the bartender. If the game is lucrative enough, I tip more generously in these situations than I would in a regular casino. (If the game is not that lucrative, I don’t play.) A bartender can easily complain to the boss if I’m “winning all the time.” If he is well-tipped, he has an incentive to keep his mouth shut in this regard.

So, without expanding on the Cliff Notes too much, let me see if I can find something new to say. The letter-writer to Andrew Uyal believes that video poker players only have a 0.02% advantage. Believe me, if that were the size of the advantage, I wouldn’t be playing. I need a significantly larger advantage than that.

To show how this is not nearly enough, I used Video Poker for Winners and looked at NSU Deuces Wild (returning 99.728%) and assumed a slot club of 0.3%. This gives the player a 100.028 game, which is actually quite a bit more than the 0.020% edge posited. A dollar single-line player needs a bankroll of more than $1 million to have a 99% chance of not going broke in the long run. I’ve never heard of a dollar player having anywhere near this size of gambling bankroll. Those of us who do have larger bankrolls typically play for larger stakes than dollar single line.

In his column, Andrew Uyal addresses tips from the point of view of table games. In table games, the dealer and the player are face-to-face all-day long. A good dealer can enhance the gambling experience. In places where “when to shuffle” is a dealer-decision, a well-timed tip can sometimes get you one more hand. But unless you’re betting $100 or more, a $5 tip will almost always be cost-ineffective, and anything less than that could be perceived as an insult.

In video poker, you rarely interact with the floor people except in the case of a W2G. The floor people bring you the money. Period. I’m nice to these people. I learn their names over time. But I don’t see normal jackpots as a tip-worthy event.

An exception to this would be a high-value promotion where there are LOTS of W2Gs hitting all the time. Then tipping makes sense because if the floor people have to decide who to take care of first, it’s human nature to help the tokers first.  Since time is money on these types of plays, “sharing the wealth” a bit is smart gambling.

So yes, video poker APs tend to tip less than recreational players. With that said, there will always be APs who honestly believe that toking well is simply a cost of doing business and that minimum wage floor people need the money more than a player who can afford to play $50 a hand or more.

I understand that point of view. I also understand the point of view that when you lose $10,000, floor people never offer to share your losses with you. It’s a one-way street. They only want to share your wins.

Both points of view make sense to some degree. You’ll have to balance them for yourself.

Finally, in most cases I tip zero, which is why I don’t explicitly list the cost of tips in my calculations.

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Apples and Oranges

I’ve written before how I sometimes play at various Dotty’s outlets. My usual pattern is to play about $100,000 coin-in each time I go.

In January, I received an offer from Dotty’s that was the first ever of its kind, in my experience anyway. They sent me a two-night stay at either the Hoover Dam Lodge or Laughlin River Lodge. The offer included $1,100 in free play and $150 in resort credit.

The Hoover Dam Lodge is about 25 miles away from where we live. I told Bonnie that for $1,100 I planned on going.  If she wanted to go too, after we paid for dinner, she could spend the rest of the resort credit in the gift shop. She decided she had time to do this.

I assumed that the games and promotions would be the same at HDL as they were at regular Dotty’s outlets. Based on this assumption (which turned out to be correct), my plan was to invest $150,000 – $200,000 coin-in on the play. Dotty’s was making this offer in the hopes of generating additional play and, if I ever want to receive another offer like that, I had better play. Nobody told me to play that much. It’s just the amount that “felt right,” given the parameters of the offer.

I ended up losing $4,800 on the play. If you count the free play earned, future mailers, promotional entries earned, my loss was reduced to maybe $4,100, meaning the promotion cost me $3,000 (minus the hotel room night, dinner, and two blouses and set of earrings that Bonnie brought home.)

I told someone about this and they told me that I was confused about how to play these promotions. I was told that if they send you $1,100 the basic rule is stop before you lose it all. Maybe lose $1,000 and keep $100. Maybe donate $900 and keep $200. Something like that. I was told it is just plain idiotic to get such a generous offer and give it all back and then some.

Apples and oranges.

Remember, Dotty’s has games that I would play anyway that week even without receiving the extra $1,100. My daily scores are sometimes plus and sometimes minus, depending on the luck factor on that particular day. I took $10,000 with me and was willing to spend all of that plus the $1,100 they gave me. There have been days at Dotty’s that I’ve lost that much. There have been days I’ve won more than that. I truly have no idea of what my score will be “this time.”

The $1,100 was, basically, a gift to my bankroll, both short term and long term. It changed my short-term bankroll (i.e. cash on hand) from $10,000 to $11,100 and my long-term bankroll (however much it is) was increased by the same amount. This gift was given to me as a reward for past play and as an incentive to get me to play more on this particular trip.

Once that money becomes part of my bankroll, it has no more special significance. The number is entered on my daily log and then I go from there.

I actually could have stiffed the Hoover Dam Lodge. Because of a glitch in their player tracking system on the day I got there, I received $1,100 in cash and a gift card for $150. Bonnie and I could have eaten, gone to the gift shop, and then gone home immediately. I’m sure some people have done that, but not me.

Monthly mailers are a part of the Dotty’s system. Any month my play drops down, my future mailers are affected as well. I had no reason to expect this offer would be treated any differently. Collect money without playing and your future offers decrease. Many players have learned this the hard way.

If I had to do it over again, I would have played it exactly the same way. Except on the do-over, I’d have hit a royal flush!

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Am I Healthy Enough?

In December, the M Resort had a promotion involving W2Gs. Simply put, every W2G you earned from December 1 – December 29 gave you a “drawing ticket.” For each drawing ticket you earned through those 29 days, if you also received another one on December 30, you received a bonus of $150 in free play. In addition to being able to earn as many of these $150 bonuses as you could, there were drawings based on those tickets.

 A W2G promotion is basically geared towards high limit players. Lower-stakes players don’t earn very many of these documents — and the best lower-stakes machines were excluded anyway. There were still some high limit machines where I believed it made sense to play this promotion. So, by December 29, I had received a few dozen W2Gs. These would be worth a lot more if I could earn the same number of W2Gs on Saturday, December 30.

Unfortunately, beginning Tuesday, December 26, I began coming down with a cold, or maybe something worse. Beginning that day, I began scarfing down mega-doses of Vitamin C, drank a lot of water, and slept a lot. Even a pint of chicken broth every day along with DayQuil. I’m not positive such a regimen works, but I was optimistic.

By Friday, December 29, I was probably 75% of the way back to being healthy. Staying away on Friday and Saturday would have cost me a significant amount in EV. This was not a close decision for me. I was healthy enough.  Was I still contagious? Probably not. I certainly told people I wasn’t. But I couldn’t be sure. I participated in their drawings on Friday (they forgot to call my name) and played heavily beginning at 1 a.m. Saturday (which was still December 29 casino-day wise).  Beginning at 4 a.m., when the casino day became December 30, I continued playing heavily so as to match the number of W2Gs I had already earned.

Enough about me and this promotion specifically. (I did okay. Not great. Nothing to brag or complain about.) But what if I had been only 50% of the way back to being healthy? Or 25%? Or 10%? Or 0% for that matter? And it isn’t just me, of course. It’s hundreds of players in each casino who are making this type of decision independently. Players who might be too sick to go to work, but definitely aren’t too sick to go to the casino.

You should always assume that many people in the casino aren’t completely healthy, but during this time of year especially, there are players in every casino who are infectious. Don’t even dream about not washing your hands regularly. Whatever your health regimen — flu shots, exercise, getting enough sleep, eating as best you can — it is especially important now. New Year’s resolutions generally don’t work very well, but now is a good time to make some anyway.

I don’t have any new advice in this column, but just another reminder to “be safe out there.”

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What’s Going On?

On a recent videopoker.com forum post in mid-December, one member, “George,” posted the following. It was in a thread that at the time was discussing players offering advice to players who sit next to them:

For the last few weeks, I’ve been hitting one particular promo spread among a few casinos. I’m going to guess well over 100 hours since Thanksgiving.
Never once, not a single time could I even tell you what game the person next to me was playing. Not if they played it well, just what they were playing.

George is a local Las Vegas player who I think plays quarters. I’m going to assume he plays at that level in the commentary that follows.  

I know George a little and I believe that he is seriously attempting to win at video poker. I have no knowledge of his actual scores, but I know he studies and attempts to play the best games using appropriate strategies. He pays attention to promotions and in this particular example believes he has found an edge.

I don’t know with certainty the particular promotion George has been playing. But I certainly know about believing a casino-promotion offering is so good that I’ve gone in and hit it almost every day until it’s over. I’ve had that experience more than 100 times in the past 23 years. I know well the tunnel vision that can result from this — where nothing and nobody else matters.

I’ve come to the conclusion that for me personally, such tunnel vision is expensive. Being at least minimally aware of my surroundings is important. Let’s look at why, to me at least. As they say, your mileage may vary.

  1. I’m going to assume that George’s tunnel vision included totally ignoring other players to the point of incivility. That may well not have been true with this particular player, but it is with some. One reason I’m using the fake name “George” is that it allows me more artistic license. If the real George wishes to identify himself in the comments on gamblingwithanedge.com and say I’ve pegged him wrong, he is welcome to do so. But this article is meant to be about a behavior of many players rather than one player in particular.

 

  1. I believe you need to be generally aware of your surroundings — including other players. This would include, at a minimum, a nod or a “hello.” It’s fine if you don’t want to talk to anybody, but basic manners make the world go ‘round. Even if you sit down next to a “chatty Cathy,” it’s not that hard to say you really need to concentrate and can’t talk and play at the same time.

There will be times when you accidentally leave your jacket on your chair or leave uncashed credits on your machine. Your odds are much better at getting those things back if there’s at least a basic level of friendliness.

There will be times that the machine you want is busy. If you have some sort of positive relationship, even a minor one, it’s easier to get the current occupant to agree to give you the machine when he is done. Your reputation follows you around. Players will respond better to a “Quiet George” than they will to a “Grumpy George.”

 

  1. A more important reason for at least being aware of other players around you is that they are often your best source of casino information. Even if you’re the most knowledgeable guy around, nobody knows everything. However good this current promotion is, it’s possible there is a better one somewhere else. Or a good one coming up that requires you to do some preparation (such as get a player’s card in another casino or perhaps learn a new game). It can be very cost effective to share information with a limited number of other players who play in approximately the same casinos at roughly the same stakes as you do.

 

You don’t want to share information with everybody. It’s wise to have some secrets. But to figure out with which players are worth sharing, you need to evaluate them. That evaluation includes which games they play, when they play, and how competently they play.

As a quarter player, if the person next to you is playing nickels, you can basically ignore them as a person with whom to share information. In most casino locations, nickel pay schedules are so bad that anybody willing to play them is almost always clueless. That player’s goal is to gamble as inexpensively as possible and he doesn’t have the knowledge to recognize that in most environments, he’ll lose less playing the best quarter games than playing most nickel games.

If your neighbor is playing quarters, you need to look at the game he is playing. On most multi-game machines there are a variety of games. If the player is not playing one of the top two or three games, again he can be ignored — assuming you’re a player who wishes to win. Winning may or may not be possible on the best pay schedule or two. It is virtually never possible on lesser pay schedules.

If this player is playing on a game you’re unfamiliar with, you should take note of what it is — perhaps 8/5 Super Double Double Bonus. When you go home, it’s easy to check out how much this game returns. It’s possible that it is a better game that what you are already playing.

You need to eventually evaluate this player’s play. On occasion, glance over and watch a hand or two. It won’t take long to conclude whether the player is basically competent or not.

If you identify the player as playing the right game and playing it competently, this person is at least a potential ‘friend’ with whom to share information. If you identify the player as not ‘up to par,’ that’s useful too.

Over time, you’ll get to know a number of potential allies. Depending on your personality and preferences, some will be a better fit than others. To see if they’re interested, share something you know (e.g. “Have you heard of the new policy at Sam’s Town about xxxx”). If they seem interested, share this information with them and see what comes in return. Some people are very good at taking all the knowledge you’re willing to share and sharing nothing in return. You don’t need friends like that.

This is a lengthy process, but to me it is very valuable.

George is enough of a “regular” at several casinos that others know him. If he is at least minimally friendly, he’ll have a number of unofficial allies. If he totally ignores everybody, he’ll have a much harder time in casinos. If he wants people with whom to share information, he’ll have some basis for making an intelligent decision about whom to trust.

This isn’t rocket science and everybody’s style is a bit different. But to be so absorbed in your game that you see nothing around you is not a good idea.

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If That’s Random, You Can Bite Me!

This column is inspired by an email I received about 20 years ago, when TITO tickets weren’t found everywhere. I don’t have the email in front of me, but I remember the gist of it and certainly the line that I’m using as a title. For the rest, I’m using some artistic license that I believe is fairly close to the original.

Dear Mr. Dancer:

Life is so unfair!

I was playing quarter 9/6 Jacks or Better at my local casino. With the 0.67% cash slot club, it’s mildly positive. The lady next to me, let’s call her “Lucky Lucy,” was playing 9/5 Double Double Bonus, a game that you say is so bad that it should be avoided.

Anyway, Lucky Lucy was dealt AAAA2 for a $500 hand pay. Three hands later LL got 22223. The 800 quarters started to spill into her tray, but the hopper went dry before she got the whole $200. So, they came and filled up the machine. About 10 hands later, LL nailed a $1,000 royal flush!

I’m playing the so-called good game and losing my ass! In less than 20 hands, which took more than 20 minutes because she needed so much servicing from the casino staff, on a terrible game, she was ahead $1,700. I’m starting to believe that pay schedules mean squat. You’re either lucky or you’re not!

And random – smandom! If you think this was a random result you can bite me!

Frustrated Fred

 

Dear FF:

Yes, I think it was a random result, but I respectfully decline your culinary invitation.

LL had an extremely lucky run that she’ll be talking about for the rest of her life! Thirty years from now, she’ll be saying, “Let me tell you about that time back in 1996 when . . . .“  She was playing a less-than-98% game that normally eats her lunch. There will be ugly stretches where that game pays less than 90% over a few thousand hands — as well as very occasional times where she wins big. Even including the “never-in-my-wildest-dreams” session you just described, she’ll be a big loser on this game over time.

Could it happen that she quits forever and ends up a net winner on that terrible game after such a wonderful run? Theoretically, I suppose, but it usually doesn’t work that way. What is more likely is that she’ll come back as soon as possible to see if she can capture lightning in a bottle one more time. And the most likely result is that she is going to lose — because that’s the nature of that game.

You, on the other hand, are playing a dull little game where, over time, you’re going to lose almost a half percent, which is more than offset by the generous slot club. There will be days you win and more days you lose, but over time it will come pretty close to the half percent it’s supposed to (assuming you play well) and you’ll be a net winner after collecting your slot club benefits.

What “random” means in this case is that the results mimic those of a freshly shuffled fair deck. Sometimes you’re randomly dealt four aces and a kicker (one time in 216,580, if you’re counting). Unusual? Yes. It certainly doesn’t happen every day or even every year to a given player. But it happens. It happened to LL while you were sitting next to her and she got $500. It’ll happen to you just as often, maybe next time will be a year or three down the road, but you’ll only get $31.25. At times like that, it’s hard to see that receiving an extra $1.25 for every time you end up with two pair pays off better in the long run. But it does! If you want to complain about playing the wrong game when such a nice hand is dealt, you won’t be the first one to do so! Many video poker players complain a lot!

“Random” includes lots of results that are surprising because they happened TODAY. It never happens that you play 1,000 hands and get the exactly predicted number of every hand. It can’t happen because some hands have cycles much longer than 1,000 hands. It’s going to take about 40 of those 1,000-hand cycles to receive a royal, and 650 of those cycles to be dealt a royal. But dealt royals happen randomly — once every 649,740 hands on average. Keep playing and you’ll occasionally be dealt a royal. It happens. Randomly!

Good video poker players have come to believe that over time, the results end up where they should. Over millions of hands, you’ll end up with approximately the correct number of royals, straight flushes, 3-of-a-kinds, etc. If you’re playing where you have the advantage, you’re very likely to be ahead after millions of hands. If you’re behind after millions of hands, it most likely is because you were playing games where you did not have the advantage.

Can I guarantee this? No. Of course not. Depending on how big your edge is and how many hands you’ve played, you might be an 80% favorite to be ahead, or a 90% favorite, or a 99.993% favorite, or whatever. You will never be a 100% favorite to be ahead, but we don’t live our lives with 100% guarantees. (You can’t 100% guarantee that you’ll be alive a week from now, for example.)

But you can BET you’ll be ahead, and really that’s what we’re doing when we gamble. It can be a very, very smart bet to make, even if we can’t be positive that we’ll always win.

But even though I can’t guarantee I’ll win over the next however-many years, I 100% believe I’ll do very well and am betting considerable amounts that it’s true.

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Whose Responsibility Is It?

For the November 16 Gambling with an Edge podcast, Richard and I welcomed David Clary, author of the book Gangsters to Governors: The New Bosses of Gambling in America. That podcast speaks for itself and I’m not covering here what we talked about on the podcast.

The last chapter of the book, called “Double or Nothing,” discussed something we didn’t talk about — problem gambling. It’s a real thing. While exact numbers are elusive, millions of Americans suffer from it.

In many jurisdictions, casinos and government agencies chip in to provide some help to these gamblers. There are a number of “self-exclusion” programs in various states that sometimes are more-or-less effective in keeping some of these people out of casinos. A strong case could be made that more needs to be done.

With some players for whom gambling is not a problem, it’s easy to conclude that having a problem is simply a self-control issue. Like, if you have a gambling problem, just stay out of casinos. Like, alcoholics should just stop drinking. And obese people should just show restraint at the dinner table. And tobacco addicts should just plain stop smoking. It’s like, “I don’t have a problem with this and you shouldn’t either!”

I personally don’t believe anything of the sort described in the preceding paragraph. I believe these are real problems with real pain and costs associated with them. What it’s caused by, I don’t know. Bottom line, though, is that I’m not at all certain what to do about it.

I regularly write things like, “If the pay schedule combined with the slot club and promotions isn’t good enough, don’t play.” I know that’s a key part of success at video poker. Players who don’t follow that advice basically have no chance of being a long-term winner. I think this is considerably different from, “If you have a problem with gambling, just stay out of casinos,” but it’s easy to envision disagreement on how different the two phrases are.

My writings assume that people CAN refrain from playing. But I also assume that very few problem gamblers read my scribblings. I have no idea how valid this assumption is, but surely some problem gamblers occasionally read my works.

Every reputable and conscientious how-to-gamble-effectively writer faces this dilemma. How do you provide information to players who can benefit from it without simultaneously giving problem gamblers false hope? If I knew the answer to that, I’d do it. But I just don’t know.

I am NOT planning on stopping my writing. Whatever your opinion on the matter is, I believe I help more people than I harm. I do not believe that the problem would be cured or even lessened if I stopped writing.

I do donate to Gambler’s Anonymous. Is that the best place to give? I don’t know. How much I give is none of your business. I’m not giving out of guilt. I do not feel guilty for being a video poker teacher. But it bothers me that in at least a few cases, my writings have ended up being harmful rather than helpful.

Most people who read my columns are players in the video poker community. While I’m more famous in that community than most of my readers are, the “how-to-deal-with-this-issue” problem is not mine alone.

You may turn a blind eye to this problem or you can try to do something about it. You’re going to have to decide for yourself. The only thing that is certain to me is that the problem isn’t going to magically disappear just by ignoring it.

I know this column is a bit of a downer, but sometimes the real world is like that. Sometimes it’s important to shine a spotlight on problems and, for me, this is the day to do it for this particular problem.

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You’re Upsetting Our Players

In 1999, I started communicating with “Richard,” the marketing director of the Laughlin Flamingo hotel. (Today the same property is called the Aquarius, and it may change names again because the parent company is in the process of changing owners.) Richard knew my name because I wrote columns for Strictly Slots and Casino Player, both of which were distributed for free in that casino.

He wanted to use my “fame,” such as it was, to draw in customers, but he didn’t really want me to teach his players how to beat him. Was there any middle ground?

I suggested he hold a video poker tournament, giving away whatever amount he wanted, and I could teach a class on “How to Succeed in a Video Poker Tournament.” His players would get real value because tournament play definitely has some skill elements to it (in addition to a considerable amount of luck) and most of the lessons for tournament play don’t translate into regular casino play. We reached a deal for me to host two events over the next year.

The only tournament software they had was for Jacks or Better.  An unusual choice for a video poker tournament, but I could adjust my class accordingly.

One of the major points in tournament strategy is that on the last hand, if you aren’t “in the money,” you should go for broke. If a tournament had 250 entrants and paid out 50 places, then being in 51st place was tied with 250th place. Zero is zero. This is very different from casino play, where 51st place might represent a profit of $100 and 250th place might be a loss of $500. These aren’t the same at all.

Players are used to the concept that a higher score is better than a lower score, but this is only true in tournaments if you’re above the “bubble.” If you’re below the bubble, all scores are equal.

Since it was a Jacks or Better tournament, the example hand I used was being dealt AAAAT on the last hand where you weren’t already in the money. Assuming 125 coins (the payout for four aces in this game) wouldn’t be enough to move you into pay dirt, you should throw away three of the aces and just hold the suited AT. Your only chance was to get a royal flush. You didn’t have a big chance — actually 1-in-16,215, but a small chance was better than no chance at all.

If this were the more standard Double Double Bonus tournament, I would have picked a different hand. Four aces pay at least 800 credits, maybe 2,000, and just that score would usually be enough to move you into the money.

The following year I received a call from “Cheryl” who was Richard’s assistant. She said Richard was busy, but she was asked to call and see if they could get me to Laughlin again for two more events. But there would have to be a few changes in the contract.

First, they wanted to lower my fee by $100 each time. Since I had already prepared my notes, it would be easier on me and that should be reflected in the price. I told Cheryl that I wasn’t crazy about this change. At that same time, there was a casino in Las Vegas that was giving away the store (I didn’t tell her this was the MGM Grand).  To induce me to come down to Laughlin for two days at a time would take more money, not less. But what was the other change you were talking about? Maybe that would offset the money.

She told me there were complaints from some of the seniors that I was telling them to throw away four aces! They didn’t get such a good hand very often and they just KNEW this couldn’t be right. Since the complaints went through her, it would be making her life easier if I never told them to throw away four aces.

I asked her if she understood the context behind sometimes throwing away the aces. She didn’t. She didn’t care. She never gambled anyway so she paid no attention to somebody else’s silly ideas about gambling. She really only cared about getting fewer complaints from the players.

I asked her if Richard knew about the changes she was requesting. She said no, but she was sure he would be proud of her for reducing the costs and not making the players angry.

I told her “No thanks,” but if they wished to increase my fee and allow me to teach the class as I saw fit, she knew how to get in touch with me. She never did.

I never taught there again, but as I recall things worked out pretty well for me at the MGM Grand.

 

Author’s Note:  The next semester of classes at the South Point will begin Tuesday January 9. The original schedule of classes on bobdancer.com accidentally said Sunday January 7. The schedule has been repaired, but I want to make sure everybody has gotten the word.

Should anyone be worried about the classes upsetting them, I promise that this semester I will never tell you to throw away four aces!

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Understanding a Flow Chart in Super Double Bonus

Super Double Bonus is a version of Double Bonus where four jacks, queens, and kings earn 600 coins instead of 250 and the straight flush returns 400 instead of 250. The best-paying version, which returns 45 for the full house and 25 for the flush, returns 99.695% when played well. When combined with a decent slot club and/or set of promotions, this can be a profitable game to play when you find it.

One of the trickiest parts of the strategy is when you are dealt an ace of one suit and a “JT” of another. Depending on the other two cards, sometimes you hold the “JT”, sometimes you hold the ace by itself, and sometimes you hold AJ.

For me to learn this, I created a flow chart which I believe is 100% accurate in this area of the strategy chart — although it presumes you know that a 4-card open-ended straight and a 3-card straight flush with one high card and two insides are both more valuable than the options presented in the flow chart. It follows relatively simple logic — but even relatively simple logic requires more concentration and study than some of my readers wish to endure.

What I thought I’d do is to present my flow chart, give you some sample hands to play, and let you see how you do. Afterwards, I’ll go through the flow chart more slowly and maybe it will be easier to understand.

And if you’re not in the mood for the logic of 9-5 SDB, it’s okay with me if you always play “JT” when you come to these hands. You won’t be giving up a whole lot. For some folks, making these kinds of distinctions cause their heads to hurt. If that’s you, take this column off and come back next week.

A versus “JT”:

 

Is there a flush penalty to the “JT”?

If no, play “JT”  — end

If yes, continue

 

Is the flush penalty to the “JT” a 2-6 and the fifth card suited with the A?

If yes, is it an 8 or 9?

If yes, play AJ — end

If no, play “JT” — end

If no, continue

 

Is the flush penalty to the ”JT” a 2-5 and the fifth card an 8 or 9?

If yes, play A — end

If no, play “JT” — end

 

Is the flush penalty to the ”JT” a 6 and the fifth card a 7, 8 or 9?

If yes, play A — end

If no, play “JT” — end

 

Using the above logic, play these hands:

  1. A♠ J♥ T♥ 2♠ 5♠
  2. A♠ J♥ T♥ 9♠ 7♦
  3. A♠ J♥ T♥ 9♠ 8♥
  4. A♠ J♥ T♥ 3♣ 7♥
  5. A♠ J♥ T♥ 9♣ 5♥
  6. A♠ J♥ T♥ 7♣ 6♥
  7. A♠ J♥ T♥ 7♣ 5♥
  8. A♠ J♥ T♥ 8♣ 2♥
  9. A♠ J♥ T♥ 8♠ 2♥
  10. A♠ J♥ T♥ 7♠ 6♥

Here are the answers. If you easily got them all correct, you don’t need to read any further:

  1. A♠ 2♠ 5♠
  2. J♥ T♥
  3. J♥ T♥ 9♠ 8♥
  4. J♥ T♥ 7♥
  5. A♠
  6. A♠
  7. J♥ T♥
  8. A♠
  9. A♠ J♥
  10. J♥ T♥

If you missed one or more of the above problems, the following explanations may help:

 

Is there a flush penalty to the “JT”?

If no, play “JT”  — end

If yes, continue

This rule is the easiest. Just look for a card suited with the “JT”. If you don’t find one, then “JT” is the play — unless, of course, some higher-ranking combination is in the hand.

 

Is the flush penalty to the “JT” a 2-6 and the fifth card suited with the A?

If yes, is it an 8 or 9?

If yes, play AJ — end

If no, play “JT” — end

If no, continue

We only get to this rule if there is a flush penalty to the “JT” and also a flush penalty to the A. Also, this is the only time we can hold AJ.  Notice that the flush penalty to the J cannot be a 7 or higher as that would make it a higher-ranking 3-card straight flush or 3-card royal flush. Also note that this says that if there is a flush penalty to the A, but it is not an 8 or 9, we hold the “JT”.

 

Is the flush penalty to the ”JT” a 2-5 and the fifth card an 8 or 9?

If yes, play A — end

If no, play “JT” — end

By the time we get here, there is no flush penalty to the ace.

 

Is the flush penalty to the ”JT” a 6 and the fifth card a 7, 8 or 9?

If yes, play A — end

If no, play “JT” — end

By the time we get here, there is no flush penalty to the ace. The only difference in the last two rules is when the fifth card is a 7. If the flush penalty to the J is a 6 (meaning it is not a straight penalty to the A), we hold the A by itself. If the flush penalty to the J is a 2-5 (which are all straight penalties to the A), we hold the J.

 

Do the notes in green help you any? If so, welcome to them.

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Be Careful What You Wish For  

Say you’re playing 9/6 Jacks or Better and are dealt a hand like A♦ K♣ J♦ T♦ 3♦. The best play, of course, is AJT3. Many players hold the inferior AJT. As I see it, players make the lesser play for one of two reasons:

  1. They simply do not know that AJT3 is worth 3.7¢ more than AJT for the 5-coin dollar player — given that the fifth card dealt was an off-suit king. Holding the flush kicker is a rather advanced play and many players aren’t students of the game. Or maybe they go back and forth between games without understanding the differences between them and make more-or-less the same plays for all games.

 

  1. They know AJT3 is better and they just don’t care. They really love to get royals and 3.7¢ isn’t that big of a cost for a chance to get such an exciting hand.

 

Today I want to address that second group of players, namely the ones who are willing to pay an extra premium in order to get the royal flush. My position is that for most players, this is a costlier move than they realize.

When I spoke of that 3.7¢ difference in value between the two plays, the math included a 1-in-1,081 chance of getting a $4,000 royal flush. The trouble is that the $4,000 royal flush for most people isn’t worth $4,000.

First of all, there’s tipping. When they bring you your money, they usually provide you with 39 $100 bills and five twenties. You’re not required to tip, but many players give away one or more of their twenties to the casino staff. If you’re generous enough to give away all five twenties, you have increased the difference between holding AJT and AJT3 from 3.7¢ to 12.9¢. If you got the best hand available holding AJT3, namely a $30 flush, no casino employee would be there holding his/her hand out expecting a share of it.

Second, and far more importantly, there’s a W2G that comes along with that $4,000. If you’re playing in Mississippi, the state takes away $120 — with no chance of getting it back. Louisiana takes $240, and you can get some or all of that back by filing a Louisiana state income tax form. If you fill out the form yourself, it takes an hour or more and you may not do it correctly. If you hire a tax professional to do it, it can cost more than the $240 you’re hoping to get back. There are a few other states with similar policies. If you shrug off that extra $240 every 1-in-1081 times it occurs when you draw two cards to AJT, that increases the difference in EV between the two plays by an extra 22.2¢.

Possibly different from the state where you’re playing, the state where you reside has tax rules too. Some states let you deduct your gambling losses from your gambling winnings. Some don’t. Some states have a state income tax on gambling winnings. Some don’t. Professional gamblers have different rules than non-professionals. If you itemize your W2Gs, it reduces other benefits you can claim.

I’m not a tax expert by any means, but I can safely say that there are significant costs to getting a $4,000 royal flush for many players.

The third reason royal flushes can be “bad news” is that casinos get excited if you get too many of them. Not so much for $4,000 royals perhaps, but if you play for larger stakes, $20,000 or higher royal flushes end up with you being discussed by casino management. Although exactly how many royals you hit is largely luck, being lucky can get you kicked out. Nobody has everbbeen kicked out for hitting too many flushes.

If players correctly understood the factors discussed today, even on a hand like A♣ 6♥ J♣ T♣ 3♣, where AJT is superior to AJT3 by 5.1¢, these players would intentionally and intelligently go for the flush — simply because ending up with the royal has so many additional costs.

(I understand that the two hands presented today look virtually the same to many players and they cannot see why the correct play is different. That’s a discussion for another day.)

Playing for quarters or less makes you immune from these considerations at most casinos. Some casinos, however, do make a $1,000 jackpot a hand-pay situation. If that’s the case where you play, some of your immunity disappears.

Taking slightly the worst of it to go for a jackpot that creates a financial burden strikes me as similar to paying money to buy heroin. Heroin ends up destroying an individual and to pay money to do this boggles the mind. Most healthy people are disciplined enough to stay away from heroin. Few gamblers are disciplined enough to be willing to pay a small premium in order to stay away from royal flushes.

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How Important is Having Fun?

I like my life. And my life includes (currently) maybe 40 hours a month playing video poker. In the good old days, there were long periods where I averaged 200+ hours of video poker each month.

That said, while video poker is not unpleasant at all to me, I do not do it because it’s fun. I do not consider it a hobby. I consider it a profession. It’s how I support myself and family.

There are many things I put up with:  sore back after long hours, sometimes smoky environments (although I’ve cut out playing at casinos where this is really bad, no matter how high the EV), distance in time and energy to get there, security issues, needing to be present according to “their schedule” rather than mine in order to get the right play, forced interactions with certain people with whom I’d rather not interact, my wife insisting I pick up the latest “casino crap” even though we have absolutely no use for whatever it is, eating at restaurants because they are “free” rather than because we enjoy them, etc.

I put up with these things because, overall, the profession is lucrative and the lifestyle it provides is pleasant. But my idea of “fun” would not include these things.

I call my writing career interesting. I call my radio career fun. I call the “big fish in a small pond” aspect to my life usually enjoyable (although it does make me a target for many). We enjoy cruising. We enjoy dancing at fancy dinner parties. We take advantage of going to shows. Some casino locations (Lake Tahoe, New Orleans, and Cherokee come to mind) are a lot of fun to visit after I’ve done my playing in the casino. At times, we have access to better restaurants than we would frequent if we had to pay retail. These goodies are a direct benefit from playing video poker.

Hosts and other casino employees are trained to say, “It’s not whether you win or lose but rather whether or not you have fun,” and it makes sense for them to be doing this. Most players are not successful at the game and if the casinos can convince players that gambling is fun and losing is all right, then the casinos will prosper more.

Many people buy the slogan in the preceding paragraph, and it actually makes sense that they do. People need to justify to themselves that what they spend their time and money on is “okay.” So, they convince themselves that playing is fun. And if that’s the way it is for you, that’s fine.

When I lived in a location without machines, I moved to Las Vegas. There are some casino locations where there isn’t anything playable if your choice is between playing and winning or not playing. (There are not nearly as many of these locations as people believe. There are MANY ways to win in a casino if you have the skills and do the scouting.) But if I couldn’t find games to beat, I simply wouldn’t go into a casino.

On cruise ships, I “never” visit the casino. (Well, there have been promotions where I got $100 in cash or $125 in slot machine play if I ran it through once, so I took the slot play and ran it through once on 7-5 Bonus or worse. But after I played the minimum to qualify for the bonus, I was out of there.)

I’m in casinos looking for profit, not fun. I see gambling as a means to support myself. I understand the swings, and I certainly don’t win every time (or even every year), but if the overall result over a period of three or four years is negative, I’ll quit. I’ll do something else. It just makes no sense for me to throw good money after bad.

Even though I don’t go to a casino specifically because it’s fun, while I’m there I try to enjoy myself. I joke or chat with friends and casino employees. I look to find humor and pleasantness in the things I’m doing — whether it is in the casino or not.