Category: Advice for Players

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You’re Not Ready Yet

Immediately after one of my classes at the South Point, a man, “Joe,” came up to me and asked if I would mentor him in becoming a professional video poker player. He told me he had plenty of bankroll and wanted to turbocharge his learning process. He had heard that I would do private consulting for $250 an hour with a two-hour minimum and that did not present a problem for him.

I had another engagement after class, so we scheduled a lunch date for the near future. Although I have food comps at casinos, I preferred having the conversation at a local Applebee’s where the chances of being overheard by other players was far less. I don’t pay retail for food in Vegas very often, but this was one of those times.

In the time before I met with Joe, I tried to figure out what kind of person I would be willing to mentor. Assuming he had the bankroll, I figured the main criteria were:

a. His personality was acceptable to me. This isn’t a particularly high bar to cross, but there are a few people I just don’t enjoy hanging out with. I didn’t want a long-term relationship with somebody like that.

b. He was smart enough. Video poker is applied math. Not everybody is capable of learning it at a high level.

c. He had some history of success at the game and could study on his own. When I’m consulting with somebody two hours at a time, I don’t really care how good they are when they come to me. I’ll spend the two hours doing my best to improve their skill and knowledge level. But a mentoring relationship is a longer-term affair and spending dozens of hours while moving somebody from beginner to intermediate isn’t how I want to spend my time.

Okay. After Joe and I ordered lunch, I asked him where he lived and how he got his bankroll. I had spoken to Joe a few times previously and he passed the personality test, such as it is. He had sent me a number of emails over the past few years with questions and/or suggestions for the Gambling with an Edge radio show. These emails led me to believe he was smart enough to succeed at this.

Joe told me he was 49 years old, lived on the East Coast, and had recently inherited more than $2 million. He planned to retire from the Air Force Reserve in a few months and was looking at how he wanted to spend the rest of his life.

Joe had listened to a number of the radio shows and it really sounded like I enjoyed my life more than he enjoyed his. Plus, he had read my Million Dollar Video Poker autobiography and was fascinated with the life of a gambler. He decided he wanted to invest a portion of his inheritance, maybe $200,000, to see if he had the aptitude to maybe be the next Bob Dancer.

I asked him how many of the Winner’s Guides he had closely studied. He told me he had purchased a set but had yet to open them up. I asked him how much time he had spent with a computer program such as Video Poker for Winners. He told me he hadn’t purchased a copy of that yet but it was next on his list.

I told him he wasn’t ready for mentoring yet. In the next six months, I suggested he learn two games at the professional level — perhaps Jacks or Better and NSU Deuces Wild. Using the Winner’s Guides and the software, this wasn’t such a formidable task. But neither was it a trivial one.

Then, I wanted him to spend at least two weeks straight in Las Vegas or another casino city gambling 30 hours a week. At the end of that, if he still wanted me to mentor him, he knew how to get in touch with me. I would give him a test on the two games, and if he knew the games at a high level, we could revisit the mentoring idea.

Joe was in love with the idea of being a gambler, but he hadn’t had any actual experience. It’s hard work to get to the professional level at one game — let alone two. Playing 60 hours will turn out to be a boring experience for many people.

Video poker is a grind-it-out affair. It’s one thing to be fascinated by what appears to be a glamorous life. It’s another thing entirely to go through the process of getting good at some games and then successfully playing those games for 60 hours without going totally bonkers.

Can Joe do this?

I don’t know. If he can’t, he was never going to be a success at gambling anyway. If he can master two games and still be interested in being mentored after some real-life experience, then at least he will be going into this with his eyes wide open rather than looking through the rose-colored glasses he seems to be wearing today.

On one of our radio shows, Richard Munchkin told us that he periodically gets these kinds of requests from people wishing to learn blackjack. Richard tells them to learn basic strategy completely for four different games — i.e. with or without standing on soft 17 and with or without the ability to double after splitting. Once they know all four of these basic strategies, come back and see him again.

Richard tells me he’s never had somebody come back to him with these four strategies memorized.

I guess Richard’s experience influenced how I dealt with Joe. The task I gave Joe is more difficult than learning four basic strategies — each of which is more than 90% identical with the others. Jacks or Better and Deuces Wild are games very different from each other.

Still, if Joe passes this test, he’ll be a worthy student and I won’t mind at all working with him.

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Is it Wrong?

I’m glad my articles are now posted on the GamblingWithAnEdge.com website. That provides a forum and often people take the time to respond to what I’ve said — or to comment on other responses.

A while ago somebody posted there, “Is it wrong to see someone drop money and you don’t tell them?” I want to tackle that one today.

My answer today is probably different than it was twenty-four years ago. Twenty-four years ago, I was brand new to Las Vegas and had moved to town with $6,000 in cash. My car was in decent repair. I wasn’t broke — but I was one or two unfortunate incidents away from being broke. I was playing blackjack with a girlfriend-partner, and that $6,000 had to cover bankroll AND living expenses.

At that time, I would probably have kept my mouth shut, waited until the person who dropped the money had stepped away, picked up the money, and left the area. This exact scenario didn’t happen to me, but similar-enough situations occurred that I’m pretty sure that’s what I would have done. I REALLY was in survival mode. Not literally, but psychologically. Since I hadn’t caused the person to drop the money, I wouldn’t have felt I was stealing the money. I could have slept at night.

Today I’m in a different situation in life. When I see people drop something, I normally speak up — basically by reflex. It’s usually not money which is dropped, of course, but sometimes it is. Today, the pleasure I get from an “extra” $100 is usually less than the grief felt by the person who lost it.

Even when I was barely getting by, there would be situations where I would speak up. Such as:  If a mother was struggling with three young children and one of the kids caused her to drop some money — even if I was in a survival mode, I would have spoken up. Whatever her financial status, a mother with three young kids is having a difficult time and I wouldn’t want to make it any more difficult. Keeping the money would forever have me worrying about, “What if she was getting medicine for one of the kids and that was the only money she had?” Best to play it straight and not have those worries.

Picking up money that has been inadvertently left behind has lots of analogs in a casino. You see credits left on machines. You see multipliers left on Ultimate X machines. You see players leave “must hit by $500” machines when the meter is at $498. Sometimes you know who left these things and sometimes you don’t. Collecting credits left on the machine may be against the law in some jurisdictions (usually you won’t be caught), but often there’s no law telling you what you must do. Often, you’re free to make your own judgments and decisions.

Is there a moral difference to what my actions should be based on whether I was poor or I was rich? Probably not, but the world sure looks different depending on whether things are going your way or not.

I like living in a world where random acts of kindness are not all that unusual. And to have that world exist requires that I do my share. So, I do.

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Not What I Thought I Knew

I enjoy reading. I read both fiction and non-fiction — on a wide variety of subjects. Periodically I look at “Best Books of xxxx” lists to see if anything looks interesting. One such list included the novel Mata Hari’s Last Dance by Michelle Moran.

I vaguely remembered learning decades ago that Mata Hari was a seductress and a spy in World War I — but I didn’t know anything else about her. So, I ordered a copy from the library, figuring that if I couldn’t get into it in a few chapters, I didn’t have to finish it.

Mata Hari, the stage name of a Dutch woman named Margaretha Zelle MacLeod, was a dancer who, beginning in 1905, didn’t mind baring herself at a time when others didn’t do that. She also took several lovers over the years. To keep the mystique going, she regularly fabricated tales — especially to the press. Any novelist trying to get to the truth — and trusting contemporary accounts — was going to have to make some educated guesses as to the actual facts. In the end, nobody can be sure what the whole truth is — simply because there will always be conflicting accounts.

By the time the war started, Mata Hari was nearing 40 years of age and her career was eclipsed by imitators who were younger and better dancers. She made some mistakes and the French believed (probably erroneously) that she was a German spy.  They executed her in late 1917. Whatever spying she did was amateurish at best. The novel presents her circumstances as tragic — although it was clear that she was unwittingly her own worst enemy at times.

Plus, since that’s the only book I’ve read about Mata Hari, most of my “knowledge” comes from that particular book and that author’s point of view. I’m assuming the book was fairly accurate (as historical fiction goes), but I don’t have a depth of knowledge to know for sure.

Although I enjoyed the novel and reading about an era I didn’t know much about, let’s bring this discussion to gambling.

Many video poker players only “know” either what they’ve heard from somebody else or they “know” things about which they’ve made some semi-educated guesses and stuck with. While it may be intuitively “obvious” to some that from K♠ K♥ 7♣ 7♦ 3♠ you hold the kings and not two pair, that play is usually incorrect. From K♥ T♥ 3♥ 7♣ 4♦, it may seem trivial that the best play is to hold exactly two cards (and it is sometimes), but there are games where holding no cards is better, other games where holding one card is the best, and still others where three cards is superior number to hold.

I am somebody who accepts that for most players most of the time, choosing the play with maximum expected value is the way to go. Virtually all long-term successful players use these strategies. There are theoreticians who devise special strategies which have different goals than max-EV, but I’ve never used such a strategy and do not intend to.

How do you figure out what the best max-EV strategy is? Simple. Use a computer program that provides you that information instantly. I sell such a program (Video Poker for Winners) but there are others on the market as well.

The computer program will tell you how to play one hand at a time. That’s fine, but there are 2.6 million different hands — or slightly more than 130,000 if you treat all suits as being equal. That is, if you consider 7♣ 7♦ A♦ 9♦ 4♦ to be “essentially identical” to 7♥ 7♠ A♠ 9♠ 4♠, then you’ve cut the possible number of hands to learn by a factor of about 20. Surprisingly to most novices, 7♥ 7♠ A♠ 9♠ 3♠ is considered to be a totally separate hand than the previous ones.

Exactly how to simplify these things into a usable strategy is a discussion we’ll leave for another day. Modern software products do this for you — some better than others. Various authors have done the heavy lifting for you and present usable strategies — and again, some better than others.

I teach classes for those who prefer to learn by listening rather than figuring things out by themselves. (Author’s note: The next semester of free video poker classes at the South Point will begin at noon Wednesday, January 25, at the South Point in the Silverado Lounge. See bobdancer.com for the complete class schedule.)

Back to the question of “how do I know this is the right way to go?” Short answer is: (drum roll please) I don’t!

I do, however, believe I’m going about this the right way. And I’m betting many tens of millions of dollars a year on this belief. So, the question is:  Why am I so confident?

  1. I’ve been doing this for more than 20 years with a great deal of success. That isn’t a guarantee that I’m right. Luck plays a part in all results. Still, long term success tends to build your confidence.
  2. A lot of really smart players do it the same way. Bob Nersesian regularly says that the smartest people he knows are professional gamblers. I agree. And most smart, successful video poker players I know are using techniques similar to those I use.
  3. I have many contacts among casino executives, game manufacturers, gaming lawyers, game designers, mathematicians, and whole bunches of successful gamblers in other disciplines. I’m a sponge for new knowledge. I’m always tweaking what I do. You don’t get good in a vacuum. The more you talk to people in other somewhat related disciplines, the better you understand how things work.
  4. Other smart gamblers accept me as an expert in video poker. If I was way off base, someone knowledgeable would have probably said why. And I probably would have listened. I do read authors I disagree with. I can often gain something from what they say. Nobody has a monopoly on intelligent strategy and it pays to keep an open mind.
  5. Going through the process of putting your thoughts into words and letting any and everybody challenge them has a way of making you a lot sharper. People do find errors in my writing sometimes. I am far more grateful that I get to learn something new than I am embarrassed at being found imperfect. I accepted decades ago that I can’t walk on water.
  6. I’ve been reading and studying gaming strategies for many decades. Bright people tend to get good at what they spend their time doing.

Put this all together and I’m confident in what I say about video poker. I am far less confident in what really happened to Mata Hari, although I know more about her situation than I did a month ago. I likely won’t read another biography of her ever — but who knows? While I enjoyed the novel, becoming a history-professor type of expert on her is not in my plans.

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How Bad Is It to Be Greedy?

I assume you know what it means to be greedy. If I’m right about this assumption, then you’re ahead of me. I’m very confused by what the word means.

I Googled “What is greed?” It came back with the Oxford Dictionary definition, “intense and selfish desire for something, especially wealth, power, or food.” It mentioned that greed was one of the seven deadly sins. And it also quotes Gordon Gekko, the Michael Douglas character in the movie Wall Street who said “Greed is good!”

Still not clear.  When does a desire become intense? I remember back in college that sometimes friends and I would go out seeking pleasant short-term feminine companionship. I would call those desires intense and selfish. Back then, fifty years ago, there was kind of a “boys will be boys” mentality about “cruising for babes.” Today it is considered to be far more predatory than it was then. There are a lot of names you could have called our behavior back then, but I never considered “greedy” to be one of them.

If a student athlete wants to be good enough to someday be drafted into the National Football League, he might undertake the following: he begins his workouts every day at 6 a.m.; he spends hours each week studying game film to improve his own skills and figure out the tendencies of whoever is going to be his college opponent next week; he avoids drugs; he’s the last one to leave practice every day. It’s fair to call this athlete very intense. Although he loves the game, the potential million dollar benefits are certainly a part of working that hard. He may well be looking forward to buying his mother a house, but most of his thoughts about using this money are personal and selfish.

I would call the behavior in the preceding paragraph appropriate actions for somebody with a plan. Laudable behavior. Give that kid a standing ovation for working so hard. The actions, though, meet the Oxford Dictionary definition of “greed” namely “intense and selfish desire for something, especially wealth, power, or food.” I think it’s far better to praise this young man for trying to make something of himself than it is to castigate him for the sin of greed.

I have heard the term greed used in at least four separate gambling contexts recently. Perhaps you didn’t hear of these particular instances, but I’m confident you’ve heard of similar ones.

The first was on a video poker bulletin board where somebody posted a picture of a $1,500 jackpot on a quarter Triple Double Bonus Ultimate X game with the note, “Unfortunately the greed took over and I kept playing and ended up with only $700. I hate when that happens!”

The second followed a story about another Las Vegas casino planning on charging for parking. This comment by a player who was unhappy with the casino’s decision started off with “Greed! Greed! Greed!”

The third was a comment from a quarter player who was mad at all the five dollar players for being greedy and winning all the drawings.

The fourth was about a player who hit three royal flushes in two weeks at a casino after which the casino kicked him out. The comment from another player was, “Serves him right for being so greedy!”

These examples do not follow the Oxford Dictionary definition.  The first case resulted from normal swings in a game with sky-high variance. If the swings went up, the person would have felt intelligent, skillful, and proud. When the swings went down, the player blamed greed. To me, it’s a case of the player either not understanding the normal swings of the game or being a bad loser.

In the second and third example, we have somebody else taking actions that cause our lives to be a little more expensive. Since they did it to us, then they are greedy! I see the world as a bunch of moving parts where each person is trying to do what’s best for himself. I do not expect anybody else to roll over and play dead in order for me to succeed. If they block me going to the left, I go to the right. As our outgoing first lady said recently, “If they go low, we go high.” I do not see this as greed on their part. Or on my part for adjusting to what they are doing.

In the fourth example, the player was greedy because he hit three royals? I don’t know anybody who knows for sure when he’s going to hit his next royal, let alone his next three. Royals happen in their own good time. It is possible you’re going to hit three royals tomorrow. It’s possible it’s going to be months and months before you hit that many.

The player who hits three royal flushes in a short period of time is fortunate. But greedy? Like he did it on purpose just to spite the casino? I might well have some unkind words about a slot director who thinks getting royals quickly is a sign of great skill, but calling the player greedy? I don’t get it.

What would I call greedy? Well, if there was only so much food for, say, four people, then taking more than a fourth of it before others have had a chance to eat would be greedy. If some food was left over at the end, then that’s fair game. Or perhaps two roommates were both trying to get ready to go and they had a deal that 15 minutes in the bathroom at a time was all you got. Someone who took more than that is greedy, in my opinion.

What these examples have in common is that there’s a fixed amount of something and sharing is the name of the game. In this context, greed is refusing to share. In a game situation, where players compete against each other, refusing to share is often the sensible thing to do.

If you think of the world as a closed system and everybody from all lands are brothers, then you can come up with some sense of greed. In this context, you’ll see “green” philosophies, which basically try to save the environment for everybody. Within that context, people who refuse to save the environment are greedy.

But you’re not going to get universal agreement on this. I can easily support a “take nothing but pictures, leave nothing but footprints” philosophy when visiting a national forest. Whether we should shut down a lumber industry to save an endangered species of owl is a topic of spirited emotions on both sides.

If you cannot or will not see the world as a closed system and you believe it is “every man for himself,” then greed isn’t well defined, at least to me. Or perhaps, Gordon Gekko’s “Greed is good!” makes sense. I do not see the world that way, but I’ll be damned if I can figure out exactly where the lines of demarcation go.

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Another Matter of Perspective

Recently I wrote a column about me growing up gambling-wise at the Cavendish West, which was a gin and backgammon club in the West Hollywood part of greater Los Angeles. If you didn’t read it the first time, it may be found here.

I mentioned that I lost my bankroll and had to get a job — and I didn’t like it. I received this sarcastic response.

” . . . I had to go out and get a job to support myself. It was awful.” Really? What was awful, not being top dog, or having to work for a living? I can dig it, having to support myself and a family really is a drag!

First of all, as Richard says every week on the radio show, we welcome your comments. This particular comment, intentionally or not, brought up some subjects I don’t often write about, so thank you for giving me an idea for another column!

There are not many people who can make it as a professional gambler. For most players, gambling reality is that the house always wins.

If you are bright enough and have studied hard enough and have developed the other habits necessary to succeed at this obscure “profession,” there is a sense of pride about being able to do something that most people can’t.

I don’t believe this type of pride is unique to being a gambler. I believe most people believe they are better at something than are most other people. It could be that you are good enough to play in the National Football League, or have won the blue ribbon for best marinara sauce three years in a row at the county fair, or have never taken a sick day off, or all three of your kids graduated, or . . . something. And whatever this something is that makes you unique, you’re proud of it.

Sometimes it turns out that reality teaches you that you aren’t as good as you thought you were — or perhaps you once were. The football guy loses his job to a younger, stronger player; somebody figures out a more popular recipe for the sauce; you develop a tumor and need to take several sick days off. Something. Whatever it was that you were proud of — that was part of the core of what made you unique — is no longer there.

Coming to grips with this lack of uniqueness isn’t pleasant.

Having somebody who was never in the NFL sneer at you and say it’s no big deal not to be at that level anymore is somebody who simply doesn’t understand. There is a brotherhood among players that just doesn’t exist with non-players. Being forced to give that up sucks. Although I can’t speak from experience about being in the NFL, there is definitely a camaraderie among successful gamblers and I’d rather be on the inside looking out than the outside looking in.

Sometimes when this happens, you see the player work very, very hard to regain his abilities to play at that top level. Occasionally the player makes it back to the league, but eventually Father Time always wins. Sometimes the player shifts positions or becomes a coach to stay in the game.  More often the player tries for a while to make it back and then eventually gives up that dream as unattainable.

In my case, I was able to make it back — sort of. With a great deal of work, my backgammon skills improved — but not enough to support myself against the really good players. I learned blackjack and became proficient enough to make money there — although I was kicked out of enough places that I finally gave up that career.

Eventually I found my niche in video poker. My fame, such as it is, is due more to being a writer and teacher than being a player.  Inarguably, many of my player skills have been honed by helping others learn the game.  The majority of my wealth, however, comes from being a player. I’m almost 70 years old and eventually Father Time is going to win this contest too. The house doesn’t always win, but Father Time does.

I’ve never questioned that I needed to make a living rather than have things handed to me. In Frank Sinatra’s “I Did It My Way,” he’s proud that he got to succeed under his own terms. That’s the way I feel as well.

It’s not a feeling that I’m better than others. It’s a feeling that eventually I was able to find the right small pond where I could be a big fish. It was neither a short nor an easy journey. Perhaps it’s better described as a feeling of relief than a feeling of pride.

For my readers, I wish they can each find their own small pond where they can be a big fish. It’s a good feeling.

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Wrong Conclusion

A square-dancing friend, Sal, was telling me how happy he was that he finally learned to play Full Pay Deuces Wild. He had studied the Winner’s Guide, practiced on Video Poker for Winners, and in the last two months had averaged about $30 per hour in profit on about 5-6 hours of play per week on the quarter game. He had pictures of three $1,000 royals on his cell phone that he wanted to show and have me admire.

Using this source of extra income, he had made a commitment to move his girlfriend, Betty, to Vegas from out-of-state. “I can finally afford it,” Sal told me. “I never realized I had what it takes to be a successful gambler.”

“Hold on,” I told him. “Full Pay Deuces Wild is worth somewhere in the range of $6-$10 per hour, depending on how fast you play and the benefits the casino gives you. There will be periods where your results exceed this for relatively short periods of time and there will be months in a row where you lose, lose, lose.”

“You’ve been going through what we call positive variance for the past few months,” I told Sal. “It won’t last. Guaranteed. It’s even possible you haven’t learned the game sufficiently well to be a favorite at all. Or maybe only a $2 an hour favorite.

“Having a two-month winning streak is no indication of whether you are playing competently or not. On a hand like W W 7♠ 6♥ 8♠, where the W (for wild card) indicates a deuce, good players hold WW78. Had somebody just held the deuces, he might have scored despite the 1-in-360 odds against him and ended up with four deuces this particular time. That would have been profitable in the short run, but over time that play is a costly one. There are numerous examples in this game where the wrong hold can work this time, so just looking at results over the short run gives you the wrong conclusion.

“If you need the extra $150 or so per week to bring your girlfriend to town and have her stay here, you better find an additional source of income, tell her not to come, or let her know that she’s going to have to pitch in financially to make this work.

“Plus, you need a bankroll of probably $4,000 or preferably more on hand just to cover the swings of this game. This is not money you need for rent, food, or anything else. This is money AFTER you’ve paid off all your credit card, any expenses related to her move, and all other debt.  It’s just a reserve because the negative variance times are definitely coming.”

Sal sighed and said that talking to me today had been a real downer. He preferred to think positively and the negative picture I presented was not pleasant at all.

I shrugged. “I’d rather tell you what I think is the truth rather than to paint a rosy picture that won’t come to fruition. I experienced what they call Gambler’s Ruin almost 35 years ago, It was no fun. And now you’re a senior citizen, it’ll be even harder to recoup if it happens to you.”

They were starting another dance and Sal left to find a partner. During the next break between dances he came back to me.

“Betty doesn’t even think gambling is a good idea. I haven’t told her yet that gambling is what allowed me to pay for her ticket.”

“You aren’t going to like my response,” I told Sal, “but if you go out and spend the money right away whenever you hit a royal flush, you will never accumulate the necessary bankroll. There will be times when you go to the casino for 5-6 hours and come back and have to tell Betty you lost $400 or more. That’s merely going to reinforce her general attitude that gambling is bad news. She probably won’t believe that you’re playing a game where you actually have the advantage.”

“So what should I do?” he asked. “You make it sound like it’s going to be a disaster.”

“I can’t make the decisions for you,” I told him. “I’ve never met Betty. I don’t know how flexible she is about staying with you if you continue to gamble. I don’t know how employable either one of you are or how good you are at getting by. I don’t know what your habits are and how expensive they are. All I do know is that if you are expecting Full Pay Deuces Wild for quarters to continue to generate $30 per hour, it simply won’t happen.”

“I guess Betty and I are going to have a long phone call tonight and discuss things” Sal told me.

That’s probably a good start.

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Losing Perspective

As I mentioned last week, Bonnie and I recently cruised the Mexican Riviera. One purpose of the trip was so that Bonnie could rest. She had a fall not so long ago, straining some muscles and tendons in her back, and the doctors have said the best thing for her is to rest and to take Motrin for the pain — preferably the kind in gel caps which dissolve at a slower rate.

While we were in Mazatlán, the second of our two ports of call, on our way back to the ship Bonnie remembered that she was a little low on Motrin. No problem. They had a pharmacy in the port area. Prices would probably be a little higher than in downtown Mazatlán, and a little lower than on the ship.

The kind she wanted cost $3 and were packaged in a box about the size of a pack of cigarettes. We paid, placed her medicine in a black bag, and left.

Five minutes later, while still in the port area, Bonnie asked, “Where’s my Motrin?” It was gone. She hadn’t given it to me, but I still checked all my pockets and my backpack anyway, just in case. It was nowhere around.

Bonnie was really upset. I tried to calm her by reminding her it was only $3 and we could easily go back and buy another package. “This is mildly unfortunate,” I reminded her, “but it’s not a big deal. If you ran out of Motrin in the middle of the night and needed it, a visit to the casino doctor at that hour might cost $100 and it would have been worth it! An extra few dollars now isn’t worth ruining an otherwise nice vacation.”

I didn’t remind her that the stress from worrying wouldn’t help her healing process anyway. Had I mentioned this to Bonnie at that particular moment, she would have likely gotten even more upset — and this time her anger might have been directed at me.

So we went back and bought another pack. As we left the pharmacy, Bonnie wanted to retrace her steps one more time seeing if we could find the black bag.

As it happened, one of the security guards on the way back to the ship asked what she was looking for and sure enough, he had her pills and gave them to her. I tried to tip him a dollar and he waved it off.

This was quite remarkable to us. From about 2010 to 2013, cruise ships refused to stop at this city because of the crimes against tourists. For the health of the city, you now see lots and lots of armed military guards all over the city. We had taken the bare minimum of cash with us and left watches and jewelry locked up on the ship. We were not expecting to run into a Good Samaritan — and were pleasantly surprised when we did.

Now the issue was what to do with the extra box of medicine? I didn’t know the policy of the pharmacy about returns, but I suggested keeping it. “You’ll use it eventually,” I told her, “and even if you can get it back home for maybe $1.50 when you buy in quantity, it’s not worth the hassle of trying to talk them into something that may or may not be against their policy.”

Something else happened that could be called similar, but I see a difference. Our cruise was courtesy of Penn National — or more specifically M Resort. Included on our package was $50 credit for food or beverage only (thank you very much!)

Early in the cruise I went to the front desk and asked them a hypothetical. If I charged a $40 bottle of wine, with a forced 18% gratuity of $7.20 and that was my only charge, would the voucher pick up $40 and I was responsible for the gratuity, or would the voucher pick up the whole $47.20? I could live with it either way but I’ve had enough experience with different ways casinos handle such things that I wanted to check up front. I was told the voucher would cover the entire $47.20.

Armed with this information, I ordered a $42 bottle of wine, which comes out to $49.56 with gratuity. (Okay. It was a $15 bottle of wine at Lee’s Discount Liquor Store, but cruise ship prices are inflated a bit.) When our final bill was delivered to our stateroom at 4:00 a.m. on the morning of departure, the $49.56 charge was still there. So I went to the front desk with my voucher and everything was handled eventually, although it did require speaking to two different people. Had I not gone to the desk, who knows if the charge would have come off?

Bonnie asked me what the difference was between me going to the front desk and “fighting” for the $49.56 and her being upset about the “lost” $3 worth of Motrin?

To me the difference was that I wasn’t upset or out of control. It was a simple matter of checking — and then doing whatever was appropriate. I intentionally set my alarm a half hour early on the last day to leave time for this “if necessary.” (There were two other items I wanted to verify on the bill — but they were done appropriately.) I didn’t see this as a major problem. Just a matter of something that needed to be tended to.

Let’s switch to gambling. We all have imperfect things happen to us from time to time. Maybe we accidentally played a few hands on a worse pay schedule than we intended to. Maybe all four of the “good machines” we thought were best to play were full and we needed to play second-best or go home. Maybe the machine ran out of tickets just as we got there and we had to “waste” five minutes until it was fixed. Whatever.

There are people who can shrug that off and there are others who get really upset. Years ago, we had an expression, “Don’t sweat the small sh*t,” although the folks who used that expression often had marijuana to help them through it. (Bonnie has never used marijuana in her life and hasn’t thought it a good idea for anyone else to use it either.  Recently, however, she has considered trying the medical variety for her back pain. I’m always a bit amused when people who say “never” end up in a personal circumstance that turns that “never” into “maybe.” It’s more amusing, of course, when it happens to somebody else rather than ourselves.)

Getting angry at little things causes undue stress, including high blood pressure and various other real medical problems. Finding ways to not do that makes your life longer and more pleasant. Exercise helps. Yoga, meditation, and other techniques work. For some, religion and/or some type of self-help process also is useful.

In the casino — and out.

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More Information is Required

In my “Waiting for Wednesday” blog a few weeks ago, found here. I was addressing the idea of scheduling when to play. One reader named Steve responded by quoting me first and then stating his “correction.” He wrote: “For me, that includes remembering that chasing every good promotion takes a backseat to doing what Bonnie wants to do. At least some of the time.” “SOME” of the time? For me, “Happy wife, happy life” is at least “MOST” of the time 🙂

Okay, Steve, you are now Bonnie’s new best friend and she sends her regards. And while I don’t disagree with what you said, there are some nuances worth discussing.
In my family, Bonnie isn’t a player — and she knows how I make my living. She knows I play at, among other places, South Point, M, and Dotty’s. She knows they run promotions and I do most of my play during certain promotions.

What she doesn’t know is how valuable the promotions are compared to each other and how flexible the promotions are. If she wants to know how much coin-in I plan to play at South Point in any particular month, I’ll tell her. But usually she doesn’t ask.

For example, I want to play $xxx at Dotty’s during the month to keep mailers and other benefits coming. For certain reasons, I play weekly rather than all at once and since the maximum benefits come after midnight and before noon, it doesn’t matter too much when I do that play subject to those constraints.

Conversely, if I play for the Silverton’s seniors’ drawing, that play MUST be done on Monday’s between 2 a.m. and 4 p.m. and prizes (if any) must be picked up between 4 p.m. on Monday and 4 p.m. on Tuesday.

I rank each promotion on a 1-5 scale, where 1 means it’s okay to skip it entirely and 5 means “I don’t care if your daughter is coming to visit — I’m playing! If you want to take her out to dinner, I’ll get a comp, but I’m not going to eat with you.”

Bonnie trusts my ranking system. If I tell her a promotion is a number 5, she works around that. (If Bonnie or I had a medical emergency, for example, that could definitely trump a number 5. But under normal circumstances, when I declare that a promotion is a number 5, I get my way.) Could I abuse the system and usually get my way? Yeah, probably, but the “happy wife, happy life” motto Steve cited is a good one to keep in mind.

We use the same sort of system near the end of the month when we decide which food coupons we’re going to use — and which ones we’re going to let go. Bonnie has a huge vote in these discussions, but it’s my job to keep track of the offers so I can explain her options.

As I write this I’m on a cruise ship. We use a variation of the same system on deciding when and where to eat, or who gets to use the bathroom first.

There have been occasions where Bonnie has said she really wants to go to a particular square dance event and can I please have some flexibility in my ranking system. When she says this, she usually gets her way. Had she said this about the night of the “mistake” 12x promotion at the Silverton which I wrote about recently, she would not have prevailed. That promotion was worth more than $5,000 in EV and would have been worth more to me than yielding on that particular night.

To be sure, I would have “bargained” with her, saying something like “I really, really can’t do that on Thursday, but what can we do on Wednesday or Friday to make up for it?”

We are both trying to make this relationship work — so almost always we can come up with something that is acceptable to both of us. Winning in casinos is the name of that game. Winning (or getting my way) at home — not so much.

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It Takes More Than a Book

In addition to where my blogs usually appear, starting a few months ago they also have been found at www.gamblingwithanedge.com. This is a site created by the folks at The Las Vegas Advisor and groups together podcasts from the radio show and blogs from a number of successful gamblers.

One feature of that site is it’s a handy place to post your own comments for or against anything written. Today’s blog was inspired by comment written about one of my recent blogs. It wasn’t an unfriendly comment. It wasn’t a personal attack of any sort. It was likely intended as gentle teasing. But nonetheless I disagree strongly with what was written.

The blog in question was dated October 25, 2016 and part of it referred to an incident where I “instructed” my ex-wife Shirley on my way of gambling. More than one reader responded with how they have taught spouses how to gamble.

One reader posed the following:  My wife and I have been married for 44 years. She has just started to play VP. Instead of me teaching her I just gave her a copy of Bob’s book on how to win at JoB…….if she loses there is only one person (other than herself) to blame……sorry Bob.

Thanks for plugging my Winner’s Guide (actually co-written with Liam W. Daily). If I personally were trying to learn a game and someone had already created that kind of a book, it would definitely be part of my learning process. I use all sorts of sources to help myself get better at things.

With that said, tossing someone a Winner’s Guide and telling them they’re now on their own is a lousy way to teach them how to play a winning game.

Why? Because people learn in different ways. Some people learn by reading. Some learn by listening. Some learn by doing and being corrected. Some people are A students and very proficient at comprehending what they read, but more people aren’t.

A Winner’s Guide make a lot more sense if you also are using computer software along with it. I personally use Video Poker for Winners, WinPoker, and Wolf Video Poker to assist me. For learning a new game they all work, and each has small  advantages the others don’t.

Even with a computer and a book, most players can’t tell you when Q♠ T♠ 8♠ is more valuable than a 4-card inside straight with three high cards in the same hand. Studying at that level by themselves is beyond what most players can or will do. A personal tutor (assuming that’s what you call an accomplished player who has already learned the game well) can explain this easily enough, but it will often take several repetitions before the new student has it mastered. And then a few weeks or months later, a review will often be required. And then later, another review.This kind of information doesn’t stick firmly in the minds of many.

Perhaps more fundamentally, even though the Jacks or Better Winner’s Guide can help teach you how to play each hand correctly, it won’t turn you into a winning player. Although there are some exceptions in a few places, the best common version of the game returns 99.54% before including the slot club and other benefits. That means the house has an edge of 0.46% if you can play perfectly — and it takes a while to learn how to play perfectly.

The concepts of free play, mailers, promotions, comps, and other goodies won’t be learned from the Winner’s Guides. These concepts are every bit as important as how to play the hands correctly, and are arguably more difficult to learn.

Plus, they keep changing. Very few slot clubs are the same today as they were three years ago. Similar, yes. Identical, no. And knowing where those differences lie can make or break you.

Although my blogs sometimes address these subjects, I may be talking about casinos and/or stakes which you don’t play. For “local” (to the student) information, that student is going to need local tutoring.

Does every reader of my blog need to be a tutor? No, of course not. But thinking that you’ve done a good job teaching by giving the student a book, even a good book, is fooling yourself. It takes a lot more than a book.

And if you become a teacher to help somebody else, you will become a better player in the process.

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Preparing for Drawings

Last week’s article (found here) discussed the process of getting ready to play for extended hours at “unusual” times. While writing it, I needed to decide whether getting ready for drawings was going to be part of that same article or a later one. It now should be obvious what my decision was.

Drawings are an important part of my success at video poker. Although there are differences between 1099s and W2Gs, it basically doesn’t matter to me if I can find games with an extra $30,000 a year in EV in a universe with no drawings or play in my current universe and receive an extra $30,000 in EV from drawings.

There have been years when the drawings I entered had a much higher EV. That varies from year to year depending on how much casinos are giving away and to whom they are giving it — and whether I’m welcome to play. A few years ago, the Palms would give away $20,000 a week in drawings; they kept drawing until all prizes were given away; and they had relatively high denomination machines where I could earn lots of drawing entries. So, I won my share there. The last two years, they reduced the prizes to $10,000 a week, made it “must claim by midnight” so there was a LOT of “breakage,” (meaning the money wasn’t given away because it wasn’t claimed), and, among other things, the machines I played were declared ineligible for promotions. Plus, they gave away 20 free drawing entries a day Monday thru Friday to anyone who swiped. My drawings EV at the Palms became close enough to $0 that I quit showing up for them. (The Palms changed ownership effective October 1 of this year. I have no idea what their drawings will be like in the future. I have been severely restricted at Station Casinos for several years, as have many hundreds of other players, and so those of us who played at the Palms under the old ownership will need to find another place to play.)

The first rule for drawings is: “Read the rules.” Completely and carefully. Every time. Pay attention to such things as:

  1. How are tickets earned? Only during certain hours? Are certain machines excluded? Do some machines (especially slots) earn more tickets?
  2. Is there a limit on tickets? If it’s a low limit, I might not be interested, but you may be. I do not wish to compete with “everybody.” I want to compete where my willingness to play more and bigger gives me an advantage.
  3. Are the tickets virtual or do you have to fill them out? I generally prefer virtual tickets as it is no fun at all to fill out 2,000 tickets. If you enter a large number of tickets into the drum, people who don’t have that many aren’t happy about it. And that can create problems.
  4. Does anybody get tickets for free? For me, this is often a showstopper, but it doesn’t have to be. At the Silverton senior drawings on Monday, every senior who swipes gets one ticket, while players who play can earn several hundred. Yes, someone who has only one ticket wins some of the time, but overall, you can play enough to still have good chances.
  5. Do I have to activate my entries? If so, when? How? There are two main reasons for this. First, if a casino is going to keep drawing tickets until they have the advertised number of winners, they want people called to be there. Otherwise it can take all night for the drawing to take place. Second, if a casino can get you there two hours before the drawing, often that creates extra play — which is why the casinos hold drawings in the first place.
  6. Do I have to be there to win? If not, how long do I have to claim any prize won? This can affect what else I can do that evening. If three casinos have drawings at 7 p.m. but they are all “must claim before midnight,” I can participate in all three.
  7. Can I win more than one prize? Usually the answer to this is “No,” but it doesn’t have to be. One player winning six times in a 10-winner drawing causes both management and other players to get upset. So even if it’s allowed, it’s often a good idea not to play for it more than once.
  8. Are there periods of time where I can win multiple entries — perhaps 2x, 5x, 10x? This is a way to give players additional value without costing the casino anything! Once the casino has promised to give away the money, it doesn’t much care who wins. But if they can offer a ticket multiplier on, say, Tuesday, which is otherwise their slowest day of the week, players will come in and hammer the machines on that day.

It’s not part of the rules, but I also want to know what other promotions the casino is running during the same period of time I’m earning tickets. If I can “double dip” and earn drawing entries at the same time I’m getting triple points, or possibly earn tickets for both a senior drawing and a regular drawing, so much the better. If my play moves me to a higher tier level, and I believe the extra tier benefits have real value to me, that’s a bonus.

Another important aspect, although not part of the rules, is knowing what machines are available in this casino. If the machines + normal slot club + promotions + drawing + mailer isn’t more than 100%, I’m not playing. To be sure, some of these things need to be estimated.

You want to know whether the casino will enforce the rules. There have been times where casinos say you must have your tickets in the drum by 8 p.m. but they still accept tickets until 8:10 — or maybe cut it off by 7:50. Or maybe have a rule against folding tickets and yet draw a winning ticket that looks like an accordion. It takes time to learn these things.

You might have noticed that everything is figured in terms of EV — Expected Value. Although this is difficult (if not impossible) to figure exactly, it is still very important. Whether you are actually called at a particular drawing or not is relatively unimportant. How often you get called over the course of a year or three is much more important. I’ll address this aspect more in a subsequent column.