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Michigan sports betting, i-gaming surge; AGA chases renegade slots

Say what you like about Michigan, it’s giving New Jersey and Pennsylvania a literal run for their money in Internet gambling. Win/day is just over $3 million, close behind the Keystone State’s $3.15 million and challenging the Garden State’s $3.65 million. Sports betting handle last month was $359.5 million, which (before promotional outlays) translates into $32 million in revenue, a figure dwarfed by $95 million in i-gaming win. Market leader in handle was FanDuel/MotorCity Casino with 30% ($107 million), followed by BetMGM‘s 26% ($92.5 million), DraftKings‘ 21% ($76.5 million) and—losing a bit of ground—Barstool Sports‘ 11% ($39.5 million). Others showing up on the radar were PointsBet/Lac Vieux Desert Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians ($14 million), William Hill/Grand Traverse Bay Band of Ottawa & Chippewa Indians ($11 million), FoxBet/Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians ($7 million), BetRivers/Little River Band of the Ottawa Indians ($5 million), Twin Spires/Hannahville Indian Community ($3 million) and WynnBet/Sault Ste. Marie Tribe of Chippewa Indians ($2 million).

As for win, it broke in BetMGM’s favor ($9 million), with FanDuel posting $8 million, DraftKings $6 million and Barstool $5 million. Of the also-rans only PointsBet and William Hill cracked the $1 million mark. Said one analyst, “The top three have separated themselves from the pack, but BetMGM has differentiated itself in generating heavy action while preserving its win with less in promotions.”

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Atlantic City disappoints, Internet gambling doesn’t

We’re going to have revise our prediction that Atlantic City would recover from Covid-19 faster than Las Vegas. Not at the rate things are going. March casino win was down 17% from 2019, coming in at $185 million. The Caesars Entertainment threesome slid 29%, with slot win down 29% and table win -26%. That’s far worse than citywide averages, which saw slot win -17% and tables -16%. Borgata‘s $46.5 million, while more than enough to lead the market, was 22% off from 2019’s halcyon days. We already knew Hard Rock Atlantic City had a good month, as President Joe Lupo took a press-release victory lap even before the revenue numbers were released. It grossed $31 million, a 25% leap over 2019. Ocean Casino Resort vaulted 33% to $20 million. The next closest thing to a ‘good’ number was Resorts Atlantic City‘s 19% dip to $12 million. Thanks to Hard Rock and Ocean, that -17% overall declivity looks a lot better than it was. Bally’s Atlantic City slid 33% to $10 million and Golden Nugget plunged 38.5% to $11 million. Caesars Atlantic City shed 23% to $18 million, Harrah’s Resort fell 33% to $18 million and Tropicana Atlantic City slid 30% to $19 million.

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Pennsylvania booms and busts, Massachusetts lags

Casino revenues were $270.5 million last month in Pennsylvania, down 22% from March 2019, another exception to the wave of recovery sweeping the country. Slots accounted for $199 million, tables for $71.5 million. Casinos were held to 50% of capacity, moving to 75% this month. King of the terrestrial casinos was Parx, far and away the leader with $53 million, only 6% down. Philadelphia Live may have done ‘only’ $20 million but solidified its hold on second place in the greater Philly market. Rivers Philadelphia was just under $20 million but down 28%, Harrah’s Philadelphia grossed $16.5 million, a 34% tumble and Valley Forge Casino Resort notched $10.5 million, a 19% slippage. In other major markets, Wind Creek Bethlehem won $34 million, a 33% falloff, Rivers Pittsburgh did $27.5 million, down 23% and Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs dipped 14% to $18.5 million. Mount Airy defended its market share best, off 4.5% to $15.5 million.

Elsewhere, Presque Isle Downs fell 21.5% to $10 million, The Meadows racino tumbled 37% to $15 million, Hollywood Penn National slipped 17% to $20 million, and Live Pittsburgh grossed $8 million (no comparison available). Oh, and little Lady Luck Nemacolin slid 26.5% to $2 million.

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Missouri booms; Trop sale a steal of a deal

After a hiccup in Indiana, gaming revenues continued to march (pun unintended) upward from 2019 levels, which were pretty darn robust. Missouri gained 6% for a gross of $176.5 million, “one of the best months ever” according to JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff. Slots represented $155 million of the haul. “Similar to other March regional [gross gaming revenue] reports, results for the month reflect a nice positive inflection given lower infection and higher vaccination rates. Moreover, impressive results don’t include significant rebound in the core 55+ customer, which we expect to follow in the coming months,” wrote Greff. Lumiere Place (pictured) continues to turn around, up 8% to $17 million, good news for Caesars Entertainment. Also feeling the love was Boyd Gaming, up 12.5% to $28 million at Ameristar St. Charles. Not having such a good time of it was Penn National Gaming, flopping 23.5% at Hollywood St. Louis ($17.5 million), while River City was down 9% but bettered Hollywood with $19 million.

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Trop flipped; Arizona, Maryland join sports-betting club

The Gaming & Leisure Properties Inc. regime at Tropicana Las Vegas was (as planned) a short-lived one. GLPI just announced that it has flipped the Trop to Bally’s Corp., which evidently couldn’t wait one minute longer to get onto the Las Vegas Strip. For an unspecified “value” of the property, Bally’s gets the casino and pays $22.5 million in “incremental rent.” Not done yet, Bally’s sold the real estate of its Black Hawk, Colorado casino and that of Jumer’s Casino Rock Island for a combined $150 million. That’s a neat trick for Bally’s, considering that its purchase of Jumer’s (a real turkey) hasn’t closed yet. Sell something you don’t own? That’s clever. We wonder what Illinois regulators will think of this three-card monte. The Black Hawk and Rock Island casinos will be consolidated into a GLPI master lease that includes Bally’s rentals of Tropicana Evansville and Dover Downs. “Recall, last year, early on it the pandemic, GLPI received the Trop from PENN … last year in exchange for 2020 rent credits (since used and expired). We look at today’s news as a creative way for GLPI to extract long-term value from last year’s deal with PENN (which is no longer the OpCo nor has any economic/equity interest in the Trop),” wrote JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff. As for Bally’s, it may need a stout dose of Geritol, as it is making a habit of buying casinos with tired blood in their veins.

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It’s DraftKings’ world, we just live in it; Musk tunnel panned

While Coronavirus and the ensuing shut-ins were very good for DraftKings by virtually every metric, CEO Jason Robins says the fun is just beginning. He told the Boston Globe that the pandemic has ratified his business model, which presumed the widespread acceptance of i-gaming. The stock market has also been good to DKNG, which is riding a market capitalization of $24 billion. It’s a reward for those who bought into Robins’ strategy, which was predicated on patience, prioritizing expansion over profits. Indeed, DraftKings lost $855 million last year and could be a billion in the red this year. However, DraftKings has secured a monopoly in two states (New Hampshire and Oregon) and appears juiced into a duopoly in another (New York State). Although daily fantasy sports, DraftKings’ early signature business, has taken a back seat to real-life sports betting, the DFS experience built valuable brand equity. PlayUSA analyst Dustin Gouker calls the DraftKings and FanDuel customer wellsprings “better than a regular casino’s database.”

It didn’t hurt that DraftKings was well-suited for its employees to work offsite as Covid-19 surged. “We adjusted faster than I would have thought to the working environment talking to each other over computer screens, and I think we’ll adjust to whatever comes next,” Robins told the Globe. However, he has to catch FanDuel in the OSB sphere. FanDuel posted $645 million over the last three years compared to DraftKings’ $501 million. And Robins isn’t laughing off new-is competition from Big Gaming. However, DraftKings may have to temper its brash advertising approach. “There’s always got to be a tieback to responsible gaming, and not an oversaturation of advertising and marketing and being in too many people’s faces,” industry consultant Sara Slane told the paper. Ironically, DraftKings remains a prophet (if not profit) without honor in its home state. Sports betting is still illegal in Massachusetts and the Lege is getting nowhere fast on the issue.

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Vegas hears wedding bells; Sahara upscales; Mega-Jottings

All-important Baby Boomer customers are ‘trickling‘ back to Las Vegas, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. That’s the latest positive augury for Sin City. Better still, the destination-wedding biz is “bursting,” per Forbes, and what place is more synonymous with a getaway nuptial than Vegas? Almost 50% of couples surveyed who were planning to tie the knot in 2020 are now looking at either renewing their vows this year or at least holding the receptions they couldn’t last year. Throw in family and college reunions, and all the arrows are trending upward. At the risk of stating the obvious, “Wedding parties can drive a lot of business to hotels and resorts, including booking ballroom or outdoor event space, having food and beverage offered throughout the celebration, which often takes place over a couple of days, and of course the room reservations for the wedding party and guests.”

4Q20 hotel business was at only at 56.5% of pre-Coronavirus levels but, two rounds of stimulus later, those numbers are certain to be burgeoning. Even business travel is looking better, expected to rise 21% this year. Of course, conferences and trade shows require a considerable outlay, and the shift to virtual meetings will not entirely recede. Business travelers aren’t expecting a return to normal until 2022 or ’23, maybe never. We’ve seen this in Las Vegas, where Las Vegas Strip hotel rates are rebounding dramatically on weekends (along with occupancy levels) but continue to languish midweek. Still, if you’re in a REIT, as much of the gaming industry now is, it’s a good time for you. Writes economist Calvin Schnure, “Lodging/resort REITs have fully recovered their losses from the early months of the pandemic, and the improvements in the fundamentals for leisure and business travel are encouraging for future gains as the economy—and the wedding business—gets back to normal.”

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Illinois improves but Ohio sets record; Is Cuomo on crack?

Criticizing Illinois‘ casino performance is usually like tripping a dwarf: much too easy. But the Land of Lincoln posted some surprising results last month. Yes, it out performed March 2020 (+122%) but we’re comparing a full month of business with the onset of the Great Shutdown. Measured, apples to apples, against March 2019, Illinois was only -16% and that’s with casinos currently operating at 50% capacity. Think what they could do if completely full. One casino posted standout results, Harrah’s Metropolis, gaining 86% to $5.5 million. Best of the rest was (you guessed it) Rivers Casino Des Plaines, down 11.5% to $38 million. Harrah’s Joliet slipped 13% to $14 million and Grand Victoria (above) was 13.5% down to $12.5 million.

Others were less fortunate. Empress Joliet tumbled 31% to $7.5 million, Hollywood Aurora slid 25.5% to $8 million and Argosy Belle was down 31.5% to $3 million. Maybe a rebrand to Bally’s will help Casino Rock Island. Something needs to, as it toppled 44% to $4 million. Par-A-Dice shed 19.5% to finish at $6 million, while Casino Queen ceded 23.5% to $7 million. The total statewide gross was $1o6 million, not great but a good deal better than what we’ve seen in quite a while.

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“In a word, messy”

That’s how JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff described the online sports-betting bill enacted by the New York State Lege. The latter essentially caved to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), giving control of OSB to the state lottery. Instead of the one-operator solution proposed by Cuomo there will be … wait for it … two. Big whoop. Those two casinos will be enabled to host four ‘skins’ on their Internet platforms. So, as we predicted, somebody (maybe a lot of somebodys) are going to be left out in the cold. The ‘Net platform providers will each pay Albany $25 million for a 10-year concession plus an annual levy of $5 million to the host casino “to alleviate the constitutional requirement that sports wagers are placed at casinos.” No tax rate has been announced but both Greff and Credit Suisse‘s Ben Chaiken anticipate it will be steep, probably in the 50% range, another Cuomo object of desire.

The cure may be worse than the disease. Greff, for one, finds himself with more questions than answers. For instance, what’s the difference between a platform provider and an OSB operator (Cuomo tipped his hand here by taking a meeting with DraftKings)? The bill calls for a minimum of four skins but what’s the maximum? Who gets to choose the skins, the state or the private sector? Will Native American tribes be eligible to compete? Will they sue the state and how might this delay the launch? Greff foresees the Empire State going live by the start of NFL season, as the bid process will begin July 1 with a truncated, 30-day RFP period. Regulators, says Chaiken, have five months to decide, which kind of shoots that NFL-kickoff target in the keister. The New York Gaming Commission gets to play King Solomon, depending on how much Cuomo tries to interfere.

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Maryland has best month ever; Rio reopens

Even with capacity restrictions still in place at MGM National Harbor and Horseshoe Baltimore, the Free State enjoyed an epic March with casinos posting an all-time-record $169 million. On March 12, MGM and Horseshoe were bumped up to 50% capacity (from 25%) and restrictions at the state’s four smaller casinos were lifted. (Last year, casinos were closed March 16-June 19.) As usual, MGM was out front with $66.5 million, 6% better than March 2019. It and Maryland Live dominated the market, with 39% and 36%, respectively. Maryland Live gained 9% to $61 million but while Horseshoe Baltimore grew sequentially (up $5.5 million from February), it was still the state’s lone disappointment, down 23% to $20 million. Ocean Downs was up 13% to $7.5 million, Hollywood Perryville vaulted 21% to $9 million and Rocky Gap Resort was up 8.5% to $5.5 million. The leading edge of a trend? We certainly think so. As America goes, so goes Maryland—only more so.

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