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Demand, prices way up on the Strip; Big casino push in Texas

Emboldened by a combination of new, 50% capacity limits in Nevada and $1,400 stimulus checks, visitors poured into Las Vegas and resorts were quick to profiteer, er, monetize the nascent demand. The Strat more than tripled room rates, from $50/night to $179, this at a place that was just breaking even a few months ago. Paris-Las Vegas vaulted from $55/night to $284. The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas was even bolder, charging as much as $610 a night for a room. Prices were described as being “at pre-pandemic levels,” which is manna in the desert to hoteliers. Whether this bounce is sustainable—jobs, jobs, jobs—remains to be seen but if it is, it would mean a Vegas recovery much sooner than we (or the industry) expected. In this return to the Good Old Days, resorts reverted to some of their bad old ways: Bally’s was charging $13 for a bottle of Dos Equis. Really? If there’s one thing that can nip a recovery in the bud it’s price-gouging, although demand for Sin City could be so unabated that customers are willing to suffer anything for it.

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Packer out, Blackstone in at Crown?

Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas owner Blackstone Group threw a lifeline to troubled Crown Resorts, in the form of a $6.2 billion buyout offer. The rope comes with a substantial string attached—Australian regulators must preserve the (sleazy) Crown casino licenses. Without them, Crown isn’t worth that much, it seems. Heck, it’s not worth that much now: Blackstone’s offer was for $9.15/share, which is 20% higher from the pittance where Crown is trading. The company has already lost its Sydney license, and its ones in Melbourne and Perth are under investigation. Blackstone is quite the high roller at the moment, having just plunked down $6 billion for Extended Stay America (in tandem with Starwood Capital Group). In the meantime, Blackstone may not find it so easy to just demand three Australian casino licenses, given the depths of the problems at Crown, which has been found to have facilitated money laundering, among other sins.

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Las Vegas: Are happy days here again?; Sands dibs NYC

As we’ve often said, when the American economy gets the flu (literally, in this case), Las Vegas catches pneumonia. During the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic, unemployment in Vegas levitated to 34%. Today it is a still-unhealthy 10.5%. Nonetheless, the Wall Street Journal paid a visit to Sin City and found a spirit of optimism, whether manifested in full classes at dealer schools or the $6.25 billion paid for Venelazzo. As one dealer-school manager put it, “You have to invest in the idea that Vegas always comes back bigger and better.” As the WSJ noted, Las Vegas may be attempting to diversify economically but it lives or dies with tourism.

“An all-time high of 42.9 million people visited Las Vegas in 2016, and convention attendance reached a record-setting 6.6 million meeting attendees in 2019,” reports the WSJ and while Vegas is recovering perhaps faster than anticipated, the brain trusts with whom reporters spoke don’t expect pre-pandemic numbers to return until sometime in spring 2022 or later. It’s a long climb back from 2020’s perigee of 55% fewer visitors (numbers not seen since 1991) and 43% less Strip gambling revenue, after all. A state budget overly dependent on gaming revenues and entertainment taxes is looking at a recovery not before 2023 at the earliest. Room rates have yet to recover their January 2020 average of $153/night. Hopefully, for the average Las Vegan, the road back will not be as long as after the Great Recession, when inflation-adjusted personal income didn’t return to normal until 2014.

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A.C.: A month to forget; Trump sticks it to Miami

Casino revenue headed 32% south in Atlantic City last month, to $148 million. Those were augmented with $46 million in sports-betting dollars and $94 million from Internet gambling (+80%), so that probably counts as a silver lining to a dark cloud. This Friday’s increase of capacity limits from 35% to 50% is expected to boost casino revenues. February slot winnings were -31.5% and table win -34%. Borgata had a terrible month at the slots, -45%, while its table-game winnings were 36% downward. Quarter-to-date, Borgata is tracking over twice as badly as JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff projected. The Caesars Entertainment threesome fared even worse, down 40%, pretty evenly divided between slots and tables. Harrah’s Resort performed most weakly, falling 43% to $15 million, while Caesars Atlantic City was -37% to $13 million and Tropicana Atlantic City tumbled 38.5% to a Caesars-best $16 million.

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Trop sale teased; Michigan sports betting explosive

Shutterstock: John Patrick Ross

Gaming & Leisure Properties Inc. hosted JP Morgan analysts last week and tried to get them all hot and bothered with talk of a Tropicana Las Vegas sale. It said it felt one would happen sooner, not later, adding that it “feels like it is signing one [non-disclosure agreement] per day.” Before we get our panties wet, let it be known that GLPI then admitted that it’s only “a handful of serious buyers that have capital to effectuate a transaction.” Talk is cheap and so are NDAs, it would appear. The Trop would have to endure yet another market repositioning, whoever buys it and GLPI confesses that a sale will be easier said than done (it “has heard a broad range of prices, it notes the devil is in the details to finalize a deal”). A bigger opportunity would appear to be the eruption of sports betting, which “should help crossover play to table games.” It also makes casino operators more credit-worthy, which GLPI can exploit by purchasing their real estate.

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Waiting to Get Ripped Off

Author’s note: This week’s blog has nothing to do with gambling. I’m hoping you find it interesting anyway. Next week I’ll return with something about video poker.

Bonnie and I live in a quiet neighborhood in Las Vegas. The homes are 30-35 years old and many of the original owners (including Bonnie) still live there. Everybody looks after each other and crime is low.

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Wall Street meets Las Vegas, Part II

Station Casinos dispatched Executive Vice President Rodney Atamian to meet with JP Morgan analysts last week. According to Joseph Greff, he reported, “solid/improving visitation and spend per visit trends.” A possible increase in Nevada casino-capacity limits to 50% should propel that further, one presumes. As with other regional gaming companies, the under-40 crowd is providing the momentum as core Baby Boomers stay on the sidelines. “However, as vaccination trends have improved, this core customer has begun to return as well.” Management doesn’t anticipate promotional wars but expects some upward creep in labor costs. While undecided on the future of the Palms, Station is persuaded that whether by a sale or a reopening under “an improved cost structure/market strategy” it can be successfully monetized, although the potential new market was unspecified. As for its undeveloped real estate, Station noted strong expressions of interest both from industrial developers as well as residential builders. The fates of three closed locals casino remain hazy, however.

As for Station’s archrival, Boyd Gaming, CEO Keith Smith and CFO Josh Hirsberg showed the flag, and teased the 1Q21 numbers by disclosing “strong” January performance with “momentum continuing into February and March.” Visitation and consumer spending are higher, albeit in the 25-to-55 age stratum. Boyd expects older customers to return in 2Q-3Q21. “Of note, BYD has seen a positive uptick in business as stimulus checks get mailed, and thus expects future benefit in the coming weeks.” Indeed. Also, the wider popularity of cashless gaming appears to be increasing the slot manager’s Holy Grail, time on device.

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Vegas’ Dream is TSA’s nightmare; MGM disses Chicago

Part Two of our survey of analyst reports on Vegas-based casino companies will have to wait a day, given a bevy of breaking news. First up, a major setback for the planned Dream Las Vegas on the south Strip. Airlines don’t want it and neither (and perhaps more importantly) does the TSA. Buildings in the immediate vicinity of McCarran International Airport are height-restricted to about 135 feet. $300 million Dream wants to go big: 237 feet. This presented no concern to the Federal Aviation Administration, it should be noted. But the security boffins at the TSA are concerned, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, about “the potential threat of active shooters in the hotel, improvised explosive devices in vehicles and people throwing objects over the airport’s fence.” Given the peril to McCarran fuel storage posed by the fusillade of the Mandalay Bay Massacre, these are not idle worries. The Clark County Planning Commission is leaning the TSA’s way and is also concerned that the proposed height of Dream LV would make it stick out like a sore thumb.

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Wall Street meets Las Vegas, Part I

JP Morgan analysts conducted a pilgrimage to Las Vegas to meet with the top brass of Big Gaming. First up was MGM Resorts International, represented by CEO Bill Hornbuckle, CFO Jonathan Halkyard and BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt. They see positive movement toward Vegas with bookings “continually improving” and with much hope placed on World of Concrete expo coming off in June, which would be a major inflection point where conventions are concerned. Despite “minimal” international traffic, execs think 2019 levels could be achieved a year ahead of schedule, by late this year. Vacation bookings were described as near 2019 levels and “MGM is seeing an uptick in more spring/summer bookings and a shortening booking window.” Airlines are being very cooperative in adding capacity in anticipation of bigger airlifts, while occupancy at MGM properties may be 40% or so midweek but double that on weekends.

Tunica and Biloxi were described as still challenged, but drive-in resorts in Maryland, Ohio and Detroit are “faring well,” according to analyst Joseph Greff. Since the average age of the regional customer is in the early sixties, MGM is looking forward to a return of the risk-avers 55+ demographic. MGM brass thinks the regional properties can notch 80% to 90% of pre-Coronavirus levels if capacity limits continue to lifted over the next three months. Macao was praised with faint damns, January being said to be “broadly break-even” and Chinese New Year “decent.” MGM China is hopeful that the renewal of its concession will be considered this year or next but the government is—surprise!—keeping everyone in the dark. As for BetMGM, management is confident as it sees momentum from 4Q20 being continued early this year. It’s a useful tool for recruiting new players and at a lower cost (always a plus for gaming execs). Migration of sports bettors into i-gaming also looks promising.

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Chicago gets serious; Ohio recovering but Missouri swoons

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D), having received 11 expressions of interest in a megaresort (two of them an exacta by MGM Resorts International and MGM Growth Properties) is ready to issue a request for proposals sometime next month. We’ll then see which of the 11 makes it to the semifinals, as would-be operators finally have to talk turkey. One incentive to do so is that the casino license comes with concessions for slot routes at the Windy City’s two major airports. Also, tax rates have been ratcheted down sufficiently that what was once a 1%-2% potential profit margin now looks more like 20%, best-case scenario. The bare-bones cost of a metro casino, according to one survey commissioned by Lightfoot, is $750 million. However, it was pointed that such comparable facilities as MGM National Harbor ($1.4 billion) and Encore Boston Harbor ($2.6 billion) came with substantially higher price tags, and Chicago leaders want a destination property, not ‘slots in a box.’ Wall Street analysts are projecting seemingly insane amounts of revenue: $833 million in Year One, then $929 million, then $1 billion in the third year. That doesn’t count the two-year temporary casino (with an option for a third year).

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