Category: Advanced Strategy

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Musings About Being an AP

Bob Dancer

I was having dinner with two winning slot/video poker players when one of them, “Al,” asked, “What was the first AP movie you watched?” I knew he said AP to mean “Advantage Player,” but I wasn’t exactly sure what kind of movie he meant? “Do you mean like ‘Rounders?’” This 1998 movie starred Matt Damon and Edward Norton.

That was exactly what Al was talking about, and that particular movie was the first AP movie he saw. I’m almost 35 years older than he is and remember the 1965 Steve McQueen, Edgar G. Robinson movie, “The Cincinnati Kid,” which Al had never heard about. The third player, “Bo,” played pool in his youth and remembered seeing “The Hustler,” the Paul Newman, Jackie Gleason movie that came out in 1961. 

A number of other movies were mentioned, and eventually I mentioned “The Sting,” the 1973 movie starring Paul Newman and Robert Redford. “Absolutely not!” declared Al. “That movie centers around a con, and there are a number of dishonest activities portrayed. Being an AP means you win by your wits without cheating!” 

I wasn’t particularly surprised by Al’s point of view. Al is a deeply religious man who lives his life with integrity. If he thinks an action is even a little bit sketchy, he’ll avoid it. While I don’t agree with all of his decisions, I highly respect them. 

For me, I consider myself an honorable person, but I do take some “shortcuts” along the way. One of the problems with the idea of avoiding cheating is that the definition of cheating is vague. It’s a bit like what Supreme Court Justice Potter wrote in 1964 about a very dissimilar situation, “I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.” Except what you conclude and I conclude can be different. Some matters haven’t been decided by the courts. Sometimes good lawyers can convince the courts that something is legal while the casinos wish it had been decided the other way.

For example: I play many games. While I have most of them mastered, I have many of the “semi-memorized.” On my cell phone, I have a Word document that lists the correct strategies for these games. I sometimes look at this strategy during play. Officially, in Nevada, this just may break the device law, while looking at the same strategy written on a piece of paper does not. This doesn’t make sense to me, but it might be the law. I use the argument, “Casinos aren’t likely to prosecute this,” to give me license to do it. Is this cheating? Not to me, but others disagree. Bob Nersesian, the best-known attorney for player-casino disputes has said if I did this and the casino took action against me, he would refuse to defend me. “The law is clear about this,” he has said. 

Assume a casino allowed its players in the top tier to have one day a month of 5x points, where the player got to choose which day was most convenient for her. Also assume a husband-and-wife team were both members of this tier. On one day a month they’d both play on his card, and on another day that month they’d both play on her card. To me, this is a smart, AP move. It certainly isn’t what the casino intended. Is it actually cheating? Al would probably think so, but I’m not sure. He is an unmarried 40-year-old (he can’t find a woman he likes who is as spiritual as himself, and this is his number one criterion). He’s played right next to me when I’ve hit a jackpot on Bonnie’s card, and he heard me explain the situation to the slot attendant. (Usually it’s no problem, but if a casino tells me not to do that in the future, I obey.) Al has never said a reproving word to me about this and he still considers me a good friend.

Now look at the players who have cards from 30 different players and basically live in that casino, playing with 5x points on a different card every day. To me this is clearly cheating. What’s the exact line between doing it on a spouse’s card and doing it on cards from “business partners?” I can’t tell you, but it’s something I feel strongly about.

Let’s say I have $1,000 in free play to pick up at a casino, but I won’t be in town during the time period the free play is active. I have a trusted friend who would be happy to play quarter video poker for an hour to redeem this in exchange for a $100 fee. Even if the casino has no better than 6/5 Bonus Poker (worth about 96.9%), the cost of playing $1,000 through is only a little more than $30 in expected value which is dwarfed by the size of the bonus. Before discussing whether I would do this or not, also consider a second case where it’s the same situation but this time I have $5 in free play to pick up. Also assume the casino would not be happy if it discovered somebody else was playing on my card.

Morally speaking, it makes no difference whether it’s $1,000 or $5 we’re talking about. It’s breaking the casino’s rules. Al would avoid this in both cases. For $5, though, I’d give that up without a qualm and for $1,000 I’d at least think about it pretty hard. Historically I have sometimes hired people to collect free play for me. Not always, but more than once.

My thoughts on this general subject have evolved over the years. Since I’ve been publishing my thoughts for close to 30 years, someone interested in proving that what I’m saying now conflicts with something I said a number of years ago could find evidence to support his view. I’m more interested in telling it like it is for me now than worrying about always being consistent with every thought I’ve had in the past.

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Should I Ask?

Bob Dancer

I was canvassing a casino looking for slot machines in favorable conditions. From 15 feet away I saw a Wolf Run Eclipse for $15 per pull. The numbers on the meters were high enough according to my guru, but not high enough according to most other sources. This is a good situation for me because most other pros would let the machine be. You can bet there were other slot pros circulating the casino. It’s a fact of life in most casinos these days.

There was a guy I’d never seen before sitting there with exactly $100 in credits. He didn’t have a player’s card inserted. He wasn’t playing the machine, but rather was talking flirtatiously to a young woman seated nearby. 

I tried to read the situation. Had he been dressed like a homeless person I would have concluded that he was trying to “sell” the machine to anyone who asked about it. After all, homeless people don’t play for $15 a hand generally. But he was clean-shaven and dressed nicely. He didn’t look homeless.

The fact that he had exactly $100 in credits indicated to me he had just put in a hundred-dollar bill and hadn’t started to play yet. I didn’t know what to make of the fact that he didn’t have a player’s card inserted. There are a number of possible explanations for that.

For a $15 game, $100 in credits wasn’t much ammunition. I might put in $500 or more before I hit the button the first time. It’s easier for me to keep track of how much money I’ve played if I put in $500 increments. I need this information so I can calculate wins and losses. But not everybody loads a machine before they start to play. Some players put in one bill at a time and only put in another bill when the credits get below the value of one hand.

I didn’t see anybody else hovering around waiting for him to leave. Which was good. Either this “opportunity” hadn’t been noticed by other pros yet, or the ones who had noticed didn’t think it was a good opportunity.

I went to check some nearby machines and returned in five minutes. Nothing had changed. He still had $100 in credits and was enjoying talking to the lady. I left to check some other machines, returning in another five minutes, and, again, nothing had changed.

Right or wrong, I decided to politely ask him if he was planning on playing that machine. I figured that possibly my asking him might be an impetus for him to take the lady for dinner or drinks or something. Or if he wanted to sell it to me, perhaps by suggesting I put in all the money and we split the winnings, I could deal with that. As I’ve written earlier, when that happens, I have no problem reporting him to a slot attendant. Usually, the slot attendant will tell him to either play the machine or get off of it. The fact that he had no players card in could indicate that he wasn’t planning on playing the machine anyway. My goal was to get the machine if it was going to become available soon — but not being rude about it.

 My hoped-for scenarios didn’t happen. He told me, also politely, that he was still planning on playing and the machine next to him was vacant. (Yes it was, but there was nothing playable on it.) I thanked him and moved on,

Twenty minutes later, I circled back, and the machine was vacant. I checked it and one of the minor meter (the one that was most attractive this time) was at reset — meaning that this guy, or somebody else, had played the game until it was no longer positive. Oh well, he found it first. I’ll find another game.

I’ve shared this story with a few of my pro friends. Some would have done the same. Some would have sat down at a nearby machine and just waited until the situation resolved itself. Some would have just walked on and never said a word to the guy. With this diversity of opinions, I’ve concluded that there is not a unique “correct” way to handle the situation — and my way was within acceptable limits.

What do you think?

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Aging in Reno

Bob Dancer

I’ve mentioned previously that Bonnie and I play at the Eldorado in Reno. Although we could drive, it’s easier to fly. One time, when we landed at the Reno airport, we took a shuttle to a casino I’ll call the Alamo rather than taking another shuttle to the Eldorado.

A little more than a month before this incident happened, I played for the first time at the Alamo. My goal was to get mailers at both the Alamo and the Eldorado. If we’re going through the expense of flying, it makes sense to have two or more stops once we get there rather than one. 

Because of this play at the Alamo, I got a mailer with some free play and $100 worth of food. It wasn’t enough free play to justify a separate flight to Reno, but as a brief stop on the way the Eldorado, it was well worth the time it took. It’s possible my future mailers would be larger at the Alamo if I skipped picking up this first offer, but I didn’t figure that out until later.

While the benefits of playing at the Eldorado are sufficient to keep us going back, and the high-end restaurants there are excellent, the midday meal options there leave a lot to be desired. So, we decided to use the entire $100 food comp from the Alamo. We’d eat what we wanted and take the rest “to go.” We carried three bags of food with us when we left.

From the Alamo, we took a Lyft to the Eldorado. We could have taken the Alamo shuttle back to the airport and from there caught the shuttle to the Eldorado. Given the uncertainty of the shuttle schedules, this could have easily taken an hour or more. A $15 dollar, 15-minute Lyft ride seemed to be a good investment. On this particular trip, we brought along one suitcase, one backpack, and a walker. I don’t absolutely “need” the walker, but I tire more easily than I did when I was younger and I’m often glad I have it. 

We went to the Gold Room at the Eldorado, which is what they call their VIP check-in area. Since the door to the Gold Room is heavy and we had our hands full with luggage, I went in alone while Bonnie waited outside “guarding” our stuff. After checking in, I returned. We gathered up our stuff and went to our room.

After a nap, I went down to the casino and played several hours. When I returned to the room after midnight, I discovered my backpack was not in the room. My laptop was in the backpack. The backpack is entirely black and  apparently just didn’t see it when we were gathering up our stuff. With the three bags of food, it seemed like we had our normal amount of luggage. I was exhausted and decided to wait until morning to deal with the problem. If the lost and found had the backpack now, they would have it in the morning. We had left it behind 10 or so hours before and there was no chance it was still where we left it. I didn’t sleep well. While I have my computer backed up, it’s a hassle and I wasn’t looking forward to it.

At 8:30 in the morning, I called the operator and asked to be put through to lost and found. The operator refused. She told me to go to the Caesars.com website and fill out a form. I didn’t want to do that. I played the “hapless senior citizen” card. “I’m 78 years old and not good with computers. Please let me speak to a real person.” The operator refused so I continued, “There is medicine in the backpack and it’s important I know whether it’s lost or not.” While this was an exaggeration, it wasn’t too far off the mark. I have a daily pill regimen, and pills for two days were in the backpack, but skipping these for a few days would not be a disaster. Still, I sensed that emphasizing the medicine might be my best bet to talk to a human. Eventually, the operator relented and transferred me to a security guard in charge of lost and found. 

They indeed had the backpack, including the laptop and everything else, and I was greatly relieved.

There are more and more similar incidents as I age. In the past few years, I’ve misplaced cell phones, keys, driver license, glasses, and departed a few slot machines without taking my TITO ticket with me. I’ve inadvertently left the garage door open when I drove away. Sometimes I’m fortunate and get my possessions back. Sometimes I don’t. While I occasionally lost things when I was younger, it’s happening more frequently as I age.

Bonnie, who is a few years older than me, loses things too. Probably more than I do. We each do our best to help the other, and we’re both glad we have each other to deal with these things, but sometimes it seems like it’s a case of the blind leading the blind.

While I’m still very glad I’m alive, there are more and more of these aggravating situations we need to deal with — at a time when we are less capable of dealing with them than we used to be. Someone suggested that this doesn’t seem fair, but to that a wiser man than me asked, “Compared to what?”

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How Can This Be?

Bob Dancer

In late February, I posted a blog about leaving a machine after hitting a jackpot. My opinion was that, unless the jackpot you hit was a progressive that changed the nature of whether the game was playable or not, I keep playing.

Most responders to the blog agreed with me, but David Miller posted the following: It has been my personal observation that when I hit a large jackpot and continued to play the same machine, I have never increased my winnings by this continuation of play. After 35+ years of playing video poker I can only think of two occasions of observing (and my own play) where another jackpot of any large amount occurred when one continued to play the same machine. My advice: Thank the Lord and take the money and run.

While I thank David for his response, I’m trying to figure out how such an experienced player came up with a conclusion so opposite my own.

David’s term “large jackpot” is somewhat vague. I’m going to arbitrarily define it as 800 coins or larger on a five-coin bet. This would include royals, four aces on many games, four 2s, 3s, and 4s with a kicker on many games, and four deuces on deuces wild games. With that definition, I’ve increased my score after hitting such a jackpot more than 500 times. And many times, I’ve witnessed players sitting near me hit multiple jackpots on the same machine. How can David have so few?

While “David” is a common name and I’ve met many Davids without always knowing a last name, I’m assuming I’ve never met him and I’m also assuming his post is on the level and he believes what he said. So, what I’m saying about him here is speculation. Here are the explanations I’ve come up with:

  1. He may have been thinking of royal flushes only when he said “large jackpot.” There are many fewer data points if you’re only thinking of those jackpots rather than the 800 coins or higher definition I chose. Hitting two royals in the same day is a pretty rare event. While I’ve done it, (more likely of course on multi-line games than single line games), I’ve played a lot more video poker than most others have.
  1. While 35+ years is longer than I’ve been playing, perhaps he doesn’t play very much each year. He could have played one weekend every three years, with three or four hours of video poker play per weekend visit. I’ve probably averaged more than 1,500 hours of play a year for the last 31 years. Even though his 35+ years is greater than my 31, if this supposition is true, I’ve played a lot more than he has.
  1. Possibly David doesn’t remember clearly. I don’t know his age or how good his memory is. Having played 35 years, he must be at least eligible for senior discounts.
  1. When David says something “never” happens, perhaps he isn’t speaking precisely. To me, “never” means never. Maybe to him, he means “rarely” rather than never.
  1. There’s a difference in how professional and recreational players play. When a professional player finds a good play, he can play on the same machine for hours — frequently accompanied by other strong players playing for hours. As a group, there will be jackpots numerous times over the course of a 35+ year career. Even if hitting a jackpot represents the “high water mark of the day” 80% of the time, the other 20% of the time scores will get bigger. Over the course of a long career, 20% of a large number of occurrences is a sizeable number.
  1. The explanation for David’s comments that I believe the most likely, stems from his behavior. Perhaps he changes machines immediately after he hits a jackpot. Since he believes he’s not going to increase his score if he continues to play on the same machine, changing machines for him seems like a smart strategy. If this is the strategy he uses, it’s no wonder he has never increased his score on the same machine after a jackpot simply because he never plays on the same machine after hitting a jackpot.

While I don’t believe in the value of changing machines, it’s not always possible for me anyway. Often the machine I want to play is either a one-of-a-kind or one-of-very-few. If I insist on leaving every time I get a jackpot, there may well not be one of similar EV available. 

If my final guess is the correct one, while David’s statement is true, it isn’t at all relevant to those players who stay on the same machine.

If David wants to respond to my comments here, he’s welcome to do so.

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An Interesting Blackout

Bob Dancer

This is an article about slots rather than video poker. I know this will irritate some of my readers, and if that describes you, perhaps you had better skip this week’s blog. But I know that enough of my readers find “all things casino” interesting enough that they will allow me some grace in selecting my topics. Plus, this week I haven’t learned anything new about video poker and I did learn something new about slots I’m going to share with you.

I was playing Wolf Run Eclipse (WRE) at a Boyd property on a 10x point day. WRE is an IGT persistence slot machine that sometimes gets positive for the player. It has four or five separate meters, depending on the version. One of the meters is the “Grand,” which I have never hit in the thousand or so hours I’ve played this game — so I ignore it. When I started playing this time, the meter read ten thousand dollars and change, and if and when I ever hit it will be very nice, but I don’t pay any attention to it when I try to determine whether the game is worth playing.

The game has three meters that start at 5 free spins (mini, minor, and major) and one that starts at 100 (mega). I have hit the mega three or four times, but I generally ignore that too unless I need a “tiebreaker.” Each meter rises periodically until it is finally hit, in which case the player earns the number of free spins that are on that particular meter.

These progressives aren’t identical. The mini meter gives you one column (out of five) of wilds every spin. The minor meter gives you two such columns. Both the major and the mega give you three such columns.

The mini meter, in addition to being the least valuable, hits more frequently than the minor, which in turn hits more frequently than the major.

I have a formula I use to determine whether or not to play. It has different multipliers for each of the three lower meters. The “strike” numbers are different for different denominations. In most casinos the 1¢ and 2¢ denominations are tighter than the 5¢ and 10¢ of the same game on the same machine.

On the day in question, I was playing 1¢, 800 coins for an $8.00 bet. Had I found the same meter numbers on the game for 10¢ 80 coins or 5¢ 160 coins (both also $8.00), the latter would be better bets because they have a higher return to player (RTP). But this time the 1¢ version had the higher meters, so that’s the one I played.

I shaded my strike number a little for three reasons: 10x points, the mega meter was at 110 rather than the reset value of 100, and while I was going to be playing for the minor, the major was at nine — which is higher the reset value of five. 

As I played, I hit the mini four times and the minor and major continued to rise. By the time I hit the minor (which turned into a W2-g) the mini had risen high enough that it was worth continuing to play. So, I did.

When the mini finally hit, I noted that if it returned $860, I was even for my play at that particular casino for that particular day. This was a score that was definitely possible — probably even likely. 

As it turned out, after all the free spins were spun, the bonus was worth $845 — so I lost $15. I knew I had actually won because I had played for more than a half hour hammering an $8 machine. At 10x points, this generated a lot of points. I don’t count those points as profit until I redeem them, which I didn’t do on this day.

After the $845 was revealed, the machine calls it a “massive win” and starts to add that amount to my existing $700+ in credits. While in the process of this happening, my machine went totally black, along with the adjacent machines on either side. All three were IGT slot machines — and all three were different games. All the other games in the casino that I could see continued to work.

A slot manager came by to look at it. He probably had a message on his computer that told him three machines went dark. I asked him if this was likely to be a long-lasting problem. He said probably not, but the outage wasn’t planned and he wasn’t sure.

I wasn’t in a huge hurry, but I’d been planning on going to dinner. I wanted to retrieve my $1,600 ticket and be on my way. There was no way I was going to leave it behind. I knew the casino didn’t do this on purpose and was willing to give them a little time to fix the problem — but I didn’t want to wait all day.

After about ten minutes, all three machines began to reboot. I expected that when my machine came back on it would continue to add the $845 to my existing credits and I could be on my way.

That’s not what happened. 

When the machine came back on, I still had my $700+ in credits, and the mini bonus began to play again! There were more than 30 free spins. Some were for more than $100 each, and many of the spins turned out to be worth zero. 

As the bonus round played out, I started thinking about what I would do if it turned out to be less than $845? The machine was probably on camera, and they could verify what the bonus had been worth previously. Would they honor that? I also mused what I would do if the bonus round turned out to be worth more than $845? 

Before I worked out all of the ramifications, the bonus round ended, and it was worth exactly the same $845 this time as it was worth last time! I was surprised. 

The slot director came by and asked if everything turned out okay. I told him that it had replayed the bonus round, all 30+ spins, and the result this time turned out exactly the same as it had before the blackout.

He told me this was exactly the result he expected. At the start of the bonus round, he told me, the computer program decides how much this bonus round is worth. Once that number has been decided, it’s just bells and whistles for the bonus round to end up providing that exact number. The player doesn’t know how big the bonus will be until all the spins play out, but the machine knows and figures out a way to get there. 

I think this slot director is correct. I just hadn’t realized it before he said it. The machine has a specific RTP to give out, and it does.

This is very different from the way a video poker machine works. In video poker, the player chooses how to play each hand. Each machine holds more than the designated RTP because video poker players make mistakes. 

But slot players, taken as a whole, don’t make mistakes. They just hit the button and take what they get. The skill in this kind of slot machine is to wait until the meters are high enough before playing. But other players have played this machine to get the meters that high. So, the machine holds as much as it is supposed to — the casino makes money — and the knowledgeable players also make money playing this game.

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Shutting Out the Noise

Bob Dancer

Generally speaking, I prefer to play video poker and slots without interacting with anybody else. To be sure, this is a personal preference and not everyone agrees with me. 

I’ve found that if I’m chatting with somebody while playing video poker, my error rate increases. I never make a lot of mistakes, but the edges we’re playing with these days are so small, even a few mistakes are too many.

I don’t know why, but I can listen to music or spoken words and still play accurately. It’s when I have to engage my brain to form a response to somebody else that it interferes with engaging my brain to play accurately.

I can control whether I initiate conversations with others. It’s harder to control whether others start talking to me.

One device I use to discourage others from talking to me is that I frequently wear a large, over-the-ear, headset while playing. Sometimes I’m listening to music. Sometimes a story or podcast. Often, I’m listening to nothing at all. Someone seeing me wearing my headset generally can’t tell what I’m listening to — if anything.

If someone I know and like sits near me while I’m playing, I’ll typically nod my head in acknowledgement. It’s kind of a, “Hi. How are you doing?” acknowledgement without wanting or expecting an answer. This presents them with an opportunity to say something, if they wish, but not the necessity.

Should someone begin a conversation with me, or I need to interact with casino personnel, I’ll signal them to hold on a second, turn off my headset, and lower it from over my ears to around my neck. Then I’ll speak to them for as long as is appropriate. It almost never devolves into a situation where I continue to play and chat at the same time.

I’m not shy about telling people, accurately, that I need to concentrate when playing video poker. I try to be polite, yet firm. Even though I’ve been playing this game for more 30 years, there are hands I need to think about. If I always played 9/6 Jacks or Better, I know that game cold and probably can chat away with no loss in accuracy. But I play different games at different casinos, and, among other things, need to focus on which game I’m playing now. If I’m chatting with somebody else, I might not recognize a problem hand when it comes along. 

There are a number of players who know me. Over 25 years of teaching video poker classes, more than 100,000 players attended one or more classes. Many of them still frequent casinos and when they recognize me, sometimes they come and say hello. That’s fine. I don’t mind a break of a minute or two. 

There’s another reason for earphones. Many casinos these days pipe the music up to unhealthy levels. Circa, in downtown Las Vegas, is one of them. With good earphones on, the noise level is much lower.

Casinos differ widely in the type of overhead music they provide. While I enjoy classic country music, I have no appreciation for many other types of music. I know other players who have no tolerance for country music at all. The advantage of earphones is that you can replace whatever is “standard” for the place where you are playing to something you prefer more.

I’m in the casino to work and not for entertainment. But if I find I can make my working environment more entertaining and productive at the same time, so much the better.

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An Interesting Case Study

Bob Dancer

Someone told me about a casino, but swore me to secrecy about writing its name, or even the state it is in. If too many strong players knew the details about this casino, the casino couldn’t afford to continue the excellent benefits it now provides — which ruins the play for all players. But I can describe those benefits.

These benefits are for “semi” high rollers — that is, it requires $40,000 coin-in monthly if you’re a slot player, or $80,000 coin-in a month if you’re a video poker player. While these amounts aren’t for everybody, there’s a significant number of players who could play that much if they were profitably motivated. 

For the video poker players, the best game is NSU Deuces Wild. In addition to a 0.05% slot club, along with reasonable comps, if you play the $80,000 coin-in a month you receive $100 in free play, twice a month. This is a slightly positive game — not worth travel expenses unless you lived in that city or had another really good play close by so you could “double dip” when you visited that city. Most players will play lesser games than NSU, and play them badly, so the casino makes out okay even with this promotion.

Slot players, however, receive $1,000 in free play, twice a month, along with a 0.1% slot club and reasonable comps. This is more than a 5% return.

If you know nothing about playing slots with an advantage, this is not a good deal. The slots at this casino return about 91% on average. Playing games with an expected 9% loss to receive 5% in benefits isn’t a winning play.

But what if you knew something about slot machines?

I’m going to describe a hypothetical “Orange Bob” machine. This machine has mini, minor, and major meters that each reset to five spins — and then they rise when you get particular combinations. When the meters are at five, five, and five, the game returns 75%. Nobody with a clue would play it at that level — but there are many clueless players at this and other casinos. 

Whenever the mini, minor, and major meters increase by one unit, the return on the game increases 0.5%, 1%, and 1.5%, respectively. If you come across a game where the meters are at 10, 10, and 10, the worth of the game would be the 75% it started at, an extra 5% because of the rise in the mini, an extra 10% because of the rise in the minor, and an extra 15% because of the rise in the major. This turns it into a game that returns 105% and is well worth playing — especially since if you start playing now, the meters will continue to rise until you hit one or more of them. 

Also, assume that while the exact numbers I cited in the previous paragraph are only known to a few players, there are a lot of players with a general idea. These players have their own “strike points,” when they estimate a game is positive. These players search the casino for such opportunities — so a lot of the time you find a good situation when somebody has just given up on playing a game when it’s positive.

It could be that this player who leaves the machine in a good situation has no idea of what makes the game positive. It could be that this player ran out of money. It could be that this player had to catch a plane and could no longer stick around until the relevant meters went back to reset values.

The game can be played for five different denominations, with five different “number of coins” for each of these denominations. The range is from a $1 total bet to $50. 

Players seeking to play $40,000 coin-in per month will avoid the lower denomination/coins combinations, simply because each time you find the play you might get anywhere from 10 to 500 spins. You won’t find playable situations very often, and if you’re only playing $1 or $2 per spin, you’re not going to come close to reaching your $40,000 coin-in goal.

There are numerous games similar to these Orange Bob games, and if you know about enough of them, you can do all right.

The interesting part about this, that I never considered while playing video poker, is that you can play “on the come.” 

Normally, without the free play, you would wait until the machines (with expected meter rise before you hit it) were higher than 100% before you started to play — assuming you were attempting to play these machines at a profit.

With 5% in benefits, however, you can start to play when the machines (with expected meter rise before you hit it) are at 97% or so. Yes, you’re giving up 3% to the casino, but the casino is giving you 5% to do so. So, it’s not a bad deal.

If you’re looking for 97% or higher games, and most of your competition is looking for 100% or higher games, you’re going to find a lot of opportunities to play. Even with everyone and his brother checking the machines all day long, you’ll find plays because you’re willing to play at lower starting numbers than most of the others do.

I find this an interesting concept.

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Leaving After Hitting a Jackpot

Bob Dancer

A friend of mine, “Sam,” plays advantage slots. He was describing a recent experience on a Buffalo game. There are literally dozens of varieties of Buffalo games — some beatable by knowledgeable players — some not. It’s not my purpose today to discuss which ones are beatable — and how. I understand that this upsets some of my readers who want me to tell them more about beating slots, but that’s not what I want to write about.

One feature of most of these games is that, in addition to the “regular” way of winning, if you’re dealt three gold coins, you get eight free spins. While those spins are being played, you can earn an additional five or eight free spins by being dealt two or three gold coins, respectively. Sometimes you can accumulate 40 or more free spins during this process. 

During these free spins, the wild card symbols get multipliers. Your biggest scores come when you get one or more buffalos in the first column, wild cards with multipliers in the second, third, and fourth columns — and if you’re really lucky, more buffalos in the fifth column. The wild card multipliers work on other symbols in addition to buffalos, but usually it’s the multiplied buffalo symbols that provide the biggest wins.

It was one of these free spin situations that prompted Sam to talk to me. He was playing less than $1.50 per hand and after 56 free spins that started with three gold coins, ended up with an $1,800 jackpot. While other numbers in the game screamed “Play!” to the knowledgeable player, Sam decided to quit. After all, he argued, a jackpot this size is rare on games played for stakes this size. Hitting two or more such jackpots close together is rarer still. So, he decided to lock up his win and quit. 

He asked my opinion on his decision.

I told him I would have continued to play. While these machines return a certain amount over time, “time” is measured in the hundreds of thousands (or more) hands. His recent jackpot has nothing to do with the short-term expectation on the machine. Since the indicators said to play, I would play. I walk all over casinos looking for such opportunities.

Sam also plays video poker. On several occasions, he has hit a royal flush, four aces, or other sizeable jackpot and continued to play. He accepts that in video poker one hand doesn’t influence what is coming next, but somehow, he thinks it’s different in slots.

Video poker is a game of skill, he correctly argues. There is skill in identifying the pay schedule and in playing every single hand. Slots, argues Sam correctly, are largely luck. Although there is skill in determining if various progressives on a slot machine make the game worth playing, and leaving the game after certain things happen, the basic playing of the game requires no skill at all. You hit the button and take what you get.

While most slot pros quit playing a slot machine when one or more progressives on the game are reset, hitting one of these free spin bonus rounds doesn’t count as a progressive being reset. These free play bonus rounds simply give you ammunition to continue playing. 

Sometimes a jackpot is hit during the free spins, and in those cases, you usually should quit playing after the free plays are finished. At a minimum, you should re-evaluate and see if conditions remain ripe for continuing.

I never thought of this as a particularly subtle point, but Sam is a knowledgeable, winning player and he had it wrong. So, I decided that some of my readers could benefit from a discussion.

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Change in Point Structure

Bob Dancer

The ROW casinos, the Caesars Rewards properties in Reno, recently changed their point structure. For some of the machines that contain the loosest video poker, Tier Credits (TCs) and Reward Credits (RCs) are now earned at one point per $20 coin-in versus the former $10 coin-in. Although the ROW consists of the Eldorado, Silver Legacy, and Circus Circus equally, for practical purposes this new rule only affects the Eldorado because that’s where the loosest video poker machines are. 

They did a similar change about two years ago. Many players boycotted these casinos because of the change and after two or three months, the former $10-per-RC system was reinstated. It’s possible this will happen again, I suppose. We’ll see. These casinos seem to struggle to attract players. Tightening the slot club can’t possibly be the way to attract more players.

Although this specific change only affects one property, and most of my readers are not players at this particular location, similar downgrades happen at other casinos all the time. The question becomes: How does a player evaluate whether to continue playing there or not?

The Caesars Rewards system is complicated — and each property has slightly different rules than its sister properties. The difference between RCs and TCs is not quickly grasped by many players. In many cases they are earned at the same rate, but they aren’t the same. RCs may be redeemed for comps, sports bets, or, at a two-for-one rate, free play. TCs can’t be redeemed, but determine whether you are Platinum, Seven Stars, or any of the other tier levels. 

The old $10-per-point system made RCs earned by playing video poker worth 0.1% in comps. Cutting that in half means that they are now worth 0.05% in comps. That’s not a big change. If you normally play $20,000 in coin-in in a day, the $20 in comps you previously earned now becomes worth $10. If you redeemed the RCs for free play, the $10 in free play you used to get now becomes worth $5. Other than being ticked off that it’s not as big as before, that’s not enough of a difference to cause most players to quit playing.

But what about if they had 5x or 10x points? Well, that could be different. This casino used to have Mystery RC multipliers every Monday, with a limit of 30,000 RCs. Whatever multiplier you receive, it will now take twice as much play to earn that limit. Time will tell if that is going to be cut back on this promotion or not. 

There are TC multiplier promotions as well. In addition, there are daily TC bonuses. Players earning 1,000 TCs in a day get a 1,000 TC bonus. Players earning 5,000 TCs in a day get a 10,000 TC bonus. That’s the biggest daily bonus offered. Whereas it used to take $50,000 coin-in in video poker to earn the maximum daily bonus, it now takes $100,000. For most players, this is out of the question.

If you play enough to earn a lot of TCs, for every 250,000 you earn, you receive one Seven Stars Experience Credit. There are a number of things you can redeem these for. The most attractive to me is $450 in free play at properties in Las Vegas or Cherokee. For the same play, Reno video poker players will end up with fewer Seven Stars Experience Credits in 2025 than they earned in 2024.

The basic Seven Stars target of 150,000 is harder to get. I find it valuable. The major benefits are five $100 food credits, one $1,200 travel to any other Caesars property including $500 in resort credit, and a highly discounted 7-day cruise for two on Norwegian Cruise Lines. Most properties have some sort of a daily benefit if you have Seven Stars status. 

These properties all have monthly mailers giving you free play, rooms, and resort credits (which are not the same as Reward Credits.) These are generally based on your average daily theoretical. If $1,000 worth of play gives you the same ADT as it did before (even though it gives you half as many RCs and TCs), then the mailers shouldn’t change. We’ll see.

The bottom line, for me anyway, is not the number of dollars coin-in required to get a RC. It’s the promotions and the mailers. If the promotions and mailers stay the same, I’ll continue to play at the ROW, at least sometimes. If they get slashed as well, I won’t. 

The change in the rate of RC and TC being earned is a much smaller change than reducing the pay schedule by one unit. I’ll put up with NSU Deuces Wild with the lesser rate, but if they cut that game by 0.8% to the pNSU game, I’ll likely stop playing there.

It’s the package of benefits (the game, the slot club, the promotions, the mailers) that matters to me, not the individual components of it. Any reduction in benefits is unwelcome, but small reductions are not necessarily showstoppers.

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I’m Playing the Wrong Game

Bob Dancer

Perhaps 10 years ago, I was playing $10 NSU Deuces Wild alongside “John,” a player I had known for quite a while. He was dealt four aces with a three, and complained bitterly, saying he’s playing the wrong game. He’d been playing $10 Double Double Bonus (DDB) not long before and that hand would have been worth $20,000. Playing NSU, it was worth $200, or maybe $800 if he could pick up a deuce after he threw away the three.

I commented that he’s lucky he wasn’t imagining he was playing Triple Double Bonus (TDB). In that game, he would have missed out on $40,000 instead of the measly $20,000 he missed out on while speculating his payout playing DDB.

He was not amused.

Later he ended up with AKQ of spades alongside two deuces. That was worth $1,250 in this game and wouldn’t have been worth anything had he been playing DDB or TDB. “Maybe the video poker gods are trying to make it up to you,” I teased.

John didn’t enjoy my mocking him, but he took it in stride. We had a relationship in which teasing the other was par for the course.

John was not a professional player. He had basic strategy down pretty well and didn’t bother with the fine points. He often played games returning less than 99% even if he played perfectly, which he didn’t. He owned his own business and even if he lost $50,000 or $100,000 a year gambling, it didn’t make a lot of difference to his lifestyle.

He believed that he was the unluckiest video poker player ever and periodically found evidence to support this belief. If he was playing Hundred Play and drew to three of a kind, he knew connecting on four separate quads was the average result. 

From here, it was a small step to believe he “deserved” four quads and whenever he ended up with three quads or fewer, he felt he was being cheated. Even when he drew five or more quads from this starting position, he felt it was a case of “too little too late.” In his mind, these occasions barely made a dent in his overall “unluckiness.”

These beliefs took the sting out if his losing sessions. After all, in his mind it wasn’t his fault! He was mostly playing correctly, and the machines weren’t cooperating.

While he had attended some of my classes, he didn’t want me correcting him while we were playing. Which was perfectly fine with me. He believed my strategies were developed for people with average luck, or better than average luck. 

He was correct, of course. The strategies I use and sell assume that every unseen card has an equal probability of being drawn next. The strategies also assume that all players have average luck over a long enough time period. We all have lucky days and unlucky days. Just because a person believes he or she is luckier or unluckier than average doesn’t make it so.

Convincing John of this was impossible, of course. His theories allowed him to continue to lose year after year and still believe it wasn’t his fault.

So, our teasing was mostly lighthearted. He always claimed that I was a “luck sack.” I’d counter with “luck favors the prepared.” While neither of us ever convinced the other, we remained friendly for decades.