Category: Advanced Strategy

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Crying Over Spilt Milk

Bob Dancer

The new tax law was signed on July 4, 2025. The gambling provisions have little effect on recreational gamblers but are career-endingly serious for professional gamblers. The Gambling with an Edge podcast with Russell Fox about this new tax law was posted July 16, and you can find it on YouTube or in several other places.

There are several possibilities that this law could be changed before January 1, 2026 — and we won’t know for some time if any of these possibilities will come in.  While Richard Munchkin expressed optimism in the podcast about one of these avenues for changing the law coming to fruition before January 1, I’m less sanguine about it. I’m preparing for my gambling life as I know it to be over in a few months.

For those unaware of how punitive this new law is for professional gamblers, consider two recent years of mine. In both years my W-2Gs added up to about $6 million. I’m playing high denominations games with a small edge. In one year, my gambling score was -$150,000 and in the other, +$200,000. I have non-gambling income as well. I also record my gambling expenses, which I’m entitled to do as I file as a professional gambler.

In the first year, since I lost money gambling, I paid no taxes on the gambling part of my income. In the second year, I paid quite a bit. Nobody likes to pay taxes, certainly including me, but it’s the price we pay to live in this country.

Under the new law, I would only be able to deduce $5.4 million in gambling losses in each year. (W-2Gs are considered proven gambling wins by the IRS and you can deduct up to 90% of them as losses.) That means in both years (one I lost $150,000 and the other I won $200,000), I would owe taxes on $600,000 of phantom income, in addition to the taxes on my other income. Minus 90% of my gambling expenses, of course, but those came nowhere near $600,000.)

It won’t take many of these tax years to wipe me out completely.

Some people manage to avoid paying taxes by simply lying about how much they make. When you get W-2Gs, though, you can’t lie about them. They go to the IRS and your tax return should claim at least the total dollar amount on the W-2Gs as in on the IRS computers, or they will come after you. In the past, it was always safe to add a few hundred thousand dollars to the W-2G total (because they would all be written off), but starting next year, adding $200,000 to this total will increase the amount you have to pay taxes on by $20,000.

Playing single-line quarters and avoiding W-2Gs altogether is not something I’m interested in. I don’t gamble “for fun.” I gamble for profit and the profit you can make playing games this small are smaller than I wish to seek. I know some of my readers take this route, and I’m not putting them down in any respect, but it’s not the life I want for me.

I’m both planning on exploiting the games I find for the last five months of this year, and planning on what I’m going to do with the rest of my life. This second kind of planning is both more difficult and not as far along as my plans for the rest of this year. It may well include stopping writing this blog. Most of the blog-posts here are inspired by something happening in a casino. If I won’t be in casinos, I’ll simply run out of new things to say. I already repeat myself more than some of you like. 

I’ve considered stiffing casinos on my way out the door on December 31, but have decided against it. While the gambling law might not change prior to 2026, there are also possibilities it could change in mid-2026 or later and I want to keep casino doors open to me should that happen. Stopping playing because of the tax law is easy for casino to understand. If they tolerated my action before, they will probably welcome me back. Taking front money and then not playing (so as to maximize my short-term profits on the way out the door) is much harder for casinos to forgive. So, I won’t do it.

One thing I won’t do is to lie around and cry over opportunities lost. I’ve had a longer and more successful gambling career than most, and if it ends in five months, so be it. I’ve saved enough to be set (unless the Doomsday Clock actually strikes twelve, which is definitely possible), so Bonnie and I will make the best of the time we have left together.

And, of course, I will hope the law gets changed soon. If it does, I plan to be ready to go in 2026 right where leave off on in 2025.

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Do Tariffs Affect Winning in the Casino?

Bob Dancer

I rarely write about politics. After all, whatever my political views are, it’s a safe bet that many of you have opposite views. Since part of my business model is to have some of you buy my beat-the-casinos literature, the fewer people I can alienate, the better for me.

Even though tariffs are about as political as it can get these days, what I have to say isn’t particularly political. My subject matter deals with how players take advantage of this situation.

Tariffs, basically, are a tax on imports — intended to protect the home country at the expense of foreign countries. My personal prejudice is that free trade, meaning no tariffs at all, is the better plan, but that’s neither here nor there. It is not my goal to try to convince you that my belief is best.

Consumers and business can adapt to relatively small tariffs if they’re predictable. The problem is uncertainty. If tariffs are announced, and then delayed, and then reinstated at a different rate, and then exceptions are announced, and then the courts make rulings changing the legality of tariffs — and then sometimes overturn those rulings — we have a whole lot of uncertainty. It’s hard for a small business to decide what to order for the Christmas season if that business can’t know what the prices are going to be. 

Casinos, especially the large ones with hotels, have to buy thousands of items of all sorts to supply their needs. Some of those items have been hit with tariffs, which increases their costs the same as any other business.

This is compounded with a shrinking player base. Their customers (including you and me) are facing higher costs due to the tariffs. Many of their bigger customers are small business owners, who are facing an uncertain financial environment. While there are some players who are going to continue to gamble come Hell or high water, many gamblers are cutting back for a while.

Casinos typically react to rising costs and a shrinking player base in one of two completely opposite ways. The first of these is bad for the players and should be avoided, and the second is good for the players and I, for one, am playing more at such casinos.

The first way — bad for the players — is for the casino to tighten everything. Good pay tables are eliminated, mailers cut, and promotions are reduced. The casino is attempting to ride out this economic situation by reducing costs. There are several such casinos in Las Vegas, and I’m reducing or eliminating my play at them.

The second way that casinos deal with this economic situation is to bribe players to come in and play. They do this by having better promotions than they usually do. They reason that they will benefit from extra play as many players are fleeing from the other casinos that are tightening up. There are a few casinos that are doing this. When I find them, I patronize them and attempt to take advantage of their promotions.

This requires more scouting than usual, but for me, so far, once I figured out what to look for, it has been a successful approach. At this point, I’m not identifying the casinos I’m playing at less and the ones I’m playing at more. Maybe later. But once your eyes have been opened to what to look for, it’s not that hard to figure out which casinos have which approach to dealing with this economic situation.

Note: Let’s keep the comments, if any, on ways to beat the casino and away from politics. Whether you are in favor or opposed to Trump and his policies, or believe the courts are helping or hurting the situation, if you post such opinions in this thread, I will delete your post. Whatever your political views, there are other forums where your comments on that are welcome. My blog is not such a forum. Additional note: Since I prepared this blog and before its release date, Congress passed a law greatly penalizing gamblers tax-wise. So greatly that I, for one, am strongly considering giving up gambling at the end of 2025. At the age of 78, I’ll have to figure out what I want to do when I grow up. Richard Munchkin and I are attempting to get our tax guru, Russell Fox, to do a special episode of Gambling with an Edge. Assuming Russell Fox comes on the show, after talking to him I may find a way to continue my profession. We’ll see. As in the previous note, if you comment on this, keep it away from political diatribes. Keep it on the theme of succeeding at gambling.

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Should I Say Anything?

Bob Dancer

The details of today’s incident caused me to wonder whether I should say anything to casino management. If they chose to “fix” the inconsistency it could either go in a way that would slightly benefit or slightly hurt other players. I’ve kept quiet, but I am writing about it. Maybe one or more of you will speak up about it. I’m sure this happens in more places than I know about.

The One Club is the slot club system used by Circa, Golden Gate, and The D, in downtown Las Vegas — all of which are casinos owned by Derek Stevens.  Among other benefits, Bonnie and I each receive $100 in food and beverage twice a month from the One Club. We redeem these comps at 8 East and Saginaw’s Delicatessen inside Circa and Joe Vicari’s Andiamo’s Steakhouse  inside The D. There are other eligible food outlets and numerous bars, but these are the places we frequent.

The idiosyncrasy that prompted this blog post is that the two restaurants at Circa include sales tax of 8.5% or so against our comp balance when we eat there and the one at the D doesn’t. So, we get $100 retail worth of food at The D and only about $92 worth at Circa. And both casinos belong to the same organization.

In many casino restaurants, sales tax disappears when you use a comp or pay with points. Things can vary when the restaurants are not owned by the casino but just rent the space. Some of these don’t accept comps at all, but others, like Ruth’s Chris Steakhouses in various Harrah’s casinos, charge extra if you are using comps.

There are other Joe Vicari restaurants around the country, so I’m guessing Andiamo’s isn’t actually owned by The D. And that’s the place that waives sales tax for compees. I can find no other Saginaw’s Delicatessens or 8 East restaurants on Google, so I’m guessing these are owned by Circa. 

I’ve not met Derek Stevens, the owner of the other casinos involved here, but he has the reputation of being approachable. I believe I could find a way to ask him about his sales tax on comps policy if I tried hard enough. 

But what would happen if I did? One possibility is that he would remove this internal inconsistency by starting to charge sales tax on comped dinners at Andiamo’s — which is a solution that players certainly don’t want.

So, I’ll let things be and remain curious about why things are the way they are. There are a whole lot of situations where I don’t understand things, but I don’t have a mission in life to get to the bottom of everything.

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A Closer Look at the NSU Puzzler

Bob Dancer

Last week my blog consisted of five mini-blogs. Each of these was about something I wanted to say but none was worth an entire column.

The last of these, changing notation slightly, was that you were playing NSU Deuces Wild and were dealt W45K as your first four cards, where the W represents a deuce and bold italics represent the cards that are suited with each other. Last week I called them all spades. It doesn’t really matter, but I’ll keep that true this week because it will simplify the answer. The question was: Of the possible 48 cards remaining in the deck, how many of them make the proper hold for the hand be exactly W45?

After I prepared that blog, but before it was published, I asked the same question to a couple of player-friends. They each had several answers/guesses and didn’t get the correct answer until I suggested they look it up on computer software. Before going on, I’ll be talking about relatively advanced concepts today. If you’re a beginning player, trying to learn advanced concepts before you have mastered the basics can mess up your learning process. You’ve been warned!

First let me give you how to play each of the 48 possible hands, and then I’ll tell you why. The dollar figures on each line tell you how much of an error it would be if you played W45 and you were playing for dollars, five coins at a time.

9 cards — any spade gives you a five-card flush. $10.31

3 cards — any deuce makes the correct play WW45. $15.65

9 cards — any 4, 5, or K gives you 3-of-a-kind. $4.78

15 cards — any non-spade A, 3, 6, 7, or 8 gives you a hand where the solitary deuce is the correct hold because these cards provide a straight penalty and the original K penalty . Between 9 cents and 20 cents, depending on which card we’re talking about

9 cards — any non-spade 9, J, or Q also gives you a correct hold of the deuce by itself because of “Power of the Pack” reasons and the possibility of a wild royal flush. Between 0.6 cents and 1.5 cents, depending on which card we’re talking about.

3 cards — any non-spade T makes the correct hold W45. Better than the solitary deuce by 0.9 cents. So, the correct answer was 3 out of 48 cards.

Now let’s talk about it. For the first three categories: the flush, 3-of-a-kind, and WW45, I’m not going to discuss any further. They should be obvious to all readers of a video poker column.

The next category, any A, 3, 6, 7, or 8 which are all straight penalties to W45, plus the king of spades which is a flush penalty. In Level 4 strategy on both the Dancer Daily strategy card and the Winner’s Guide, it says hold the deuce itself when there is both a flush and straight penalty. 

The next category, any 9, J, or Q, has Power of the Pack considerations. In the Winner’s Guides, we used the term “Pack” to indicate the remaining cards after the first five have been dealt. Here I’m slightly modifying that to indicate the remaining cards after the first four have been dealt.

When you are considering one or more deuces by themselves, the more cards that are already dealt at the extremes of the A3456789TJQKA continuum, the more likely you are to end up with a straight or straight flush with the cards remaining in the pack.

The king itself is the critical card here. For this rule to apply the cards must specifically be KQ, KJ, or K9, with one of them suited with the W45.

The reason why W45K T has a different play than W45K 9 is that the T interferes with wild royal flushes when you hold the deuce by itself. Out of the 178,365 possible draws from that deuce, 192 of them form a wild royal when you are dealt a T and throw it away compared to 236 of them form a wild royal when you are dealt a 9 and throw it away.

As we already mentioned, the flush and straight penalty cards lead to an error of between 9 cents and 20 cents. For some players, that is too small to worry about. I understand. For recreational players, going through the trouble to learn, memorize, and recall this penalty card situation is more trouble than it’s worth. Especially since it’s a relatively rare hand. Still, to me this a MAJOR ERROR, far larger than I’m willing to voluntarily put up with.

The Power of the Pack considerations at the end are all worth less than two cents. Which is why these corrections were listed in the appendix to the Winner’s Guide while the rule including flush and straight penalties was listed in our Level 4 Advanced strategy. 

Even though it’s not always worth a whole lot, I have all of these rules memorized and apply them whenever they arise. Part of this is because I play for larger stakes than $1, five coins at a time. Part of it is because, in spring 2025, coin-in on this game is probably more than 50% of all my gambling activity. And part of it is just my outlook on gambling — if I’m going to do it, I look for every legal edge I can get.

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Something I Had Forgotten

Bob Dancer

In downtown Las Vegas there are three related casinos — Circa, D, and Golden Gate. These properties share the same slot club. Weekly free play from the mailers may be redeemed at any of the properties.

There are shared mixed-game mixed-denomination video poker progressives, mostly at bars, at all three properties — probably more that 200 individual machines. There are separate progressives for 25 cents, 50 cents, $1, $2, and $5 — although the 25-cent denomination is capped at $1,199, which is considerably less than being positive.

Although you have your choice of several games, in terms of return to the player, the best one to play is 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. At reset it is worth 98.5% or so. In early April, I noticed the $2 game at $14,000, which makes it worth 100.2% — plus mailers and other slot club benefits. I decided to go home, practice at the level of $14,500 and come back the next day and start firing.

I knew that last year the LVA Members Reward Coupon Book had coupons for at least two of the three properties where if you play 1,000 points in one 24-hour period, you get $100 in free play. I decided to check to see whether this year’s book had the same. It turns out they did for both Golden Gate and D, but not for Circa. But still, since I was planning to play many hours at this game, I figured that I could redeem both of these coupons. If the progressive went off before I reached the entire $100 in free play, I’d find something else to play.

The next day, the progressive was only at $14,080. I guess nobody figured it was a play yet. But I was there and prepared, so I went to the booth at D and redeemed my coupon. It only took an hour or so to play the 1,000 points, so I went back to the booth and received the free play. This free play was only good at the D rather than all the properties. So, I played off the free play and walked the two blocks to the Golden Gate and repeated the process.

After several hours, I needed to end for the day. The progressive was now at $14,200, but I had to let it go. The next day I was back and the progressive was still live. So, I sat down and started hammering away again. After six or so hours I again had to leave, so I did.

Same thing the next day. Eventually somebody else hit the royal at $15,800 and I was down a couple of thousand dollars — which is what happens when you play progressives and you’re not the one who hits it. No regrets.

When I was reviewing the strategy, I paid most attention to the hands with royal possibilities. Hands where you can’t get a royal, such as 99443, are played the same at all levels of the progressive, but hands like KQJ4 K, where the cards in bold italics are suited with each other, definitely change. At low levels of the progressive, you hold KK. At higher levels you hold KQJ.

Since I knew the 9/6 version of the game perfectly, I just used that strategy most of the time. I knew, for example, that in 9/6, on a hand like an unsuited KQJTT, you hold KQJT but on QJT99 you hold 99. My 8/6 strategy sheet, however, said with QJT99 you should hold QJT9. I wondered if this was an error on my strategy sheet or if this was actually a real difference between the 9/6 and 8/6 versions.

It turned out that my written 8/6 strategy was correct, and with that hand you hold 99 with 9/6 and QJT9 at 8/6. It’s a close play but the extra bit you receive from a 45-coin full house compared to a 40-coin full house is enough to make a difference on the 1-in-98 times you end up with a full house starting from 99.

I’ve played this progressive three or four times in the past, and this strategy change from 9/6 to 8/6 feels like one I would remember. But I didn’t. When I saw it on my 8/6 strategy sheet it seemed completely new to me. Since last time I played it on the $1 machine at $7,600, I just sat down and started to play when I found it. If the QJT99 hand came up that time, I probably misplayed it.

Oh well. My memory isn’t what it used to be, which is why I review before playing. While I am a pretty confident player, I think I’m fortunate that I can recognize my limitations and compensate for them. I know other players who can’t be bothered reviewing strategy because they figure they know everything. 

It sounds almost self-contradictory that I’m proud that I’m humble enough to get help when I need it, but that’s the way it is for me.

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Evaluating a Promotion

Bob Dancer

I received an email from a player who told me of a promotion at a Caesars/Harrah’s/Eldorado property. He wanted to know if it was worth playing, although he didn’t say which exact property it was or even in which state it was located, although the player lived in the southeastern part of the United States so that narrows it down somewhat. It seems like for a particular day, the property was offering 5x Next Day Bounceback (NDB) cash.

More than one property in the Caesars Rewards system has daily NDB. Let’s say you’re playing that promotion on a Monday. At the casino where I’ve played it, if you play at least 100 Tier Credits between 6 a.m. Monday and 5:59 a.m. Tuesday, you’ll receive free play at noon on Tuesday. The free play is generally good for 90 days. These parameters do not have to be the same for other properties.

At most of these casinos, it takes $5 coin-in to earn one Tier Credit (TC) for slots and $10 coin-in to earn one TC at video poker. I’ve been at other properties where, for the loosest video poker, it can take $20, $25, or even $50 to earn one TC. Just staying with the standard $10 per TC at video poker, it’s obvious to those with at least a little bit of mathematical facility that it takes twice as much coin-in at video poker to earn the same number of TCs as it does at slots. Therefore, the percentage return of NDB for video poker is half as much for video poker as it is for slots.

If you would earn, say, $200 in a “normal” NDB day, at the casino where I’ve played, playing on a 2x NDB day gives you that $200, and then when you’ve played that off, gives you another $200. The second $200 expires in seven days, not 90.

Any of these parameters can be different at other properties, but at least this gives you a template of what to look for. If I were considering playing at this 5x NDB day, I would do the following:

  1. I would find out how much “regular” NDB is worth. You can do this by actually playing, keeping track of how many TCs you earn, and then see how much NDB you receive the next day. If you know some other player who has played at that casino when NDB was in effect, perhaps they’ll be willing to share the information with you.
  1. Let’s assume at this casino that the daily NDB returns 0.25% for video poker. A 5x NDB day would then be worth 1.25%. Games like 9/6 DDB and 15-9-4-4-3 Deuces Wild now become slightly positive for competent players. If the regular NDB is 0.50% for video poker, then 5x NDB would be worth 2.50% and several additional games now are worth more than 100% if you play them correctly.
  1. Normal Caesars Rewards benefits remain in effect. That is, Reward Credits (RCs) (generally earned 1-1 along with TCs) may be redeemed for comps, free play, or sports bets. Play enough and you can earn Platinum, Diamond, or Seven Stars status — each with benefit packages. Playing 500 TCs in one day earns you a 500 TC bonus. There are a number of steps topping out at a 10,000 TC bonus for 5,000 or more TCs earned in a day. If you play enough, you may well get offers in the mail with incentives to come back.
  1. I would check to see how long the NDB free play is good. If this is not a casino that I knew I’d be back to before the free play expired, I would stay at least until noon the next day and play off what I’ve earned. Although this will reduce my daily theoretical by 50% for this trip (assuming it will become a two-day trip instead of a one-day trip), generally speaking collecting the NDB I’ve earned is worth more than the reduced theoretical.
  1. I would check the entire floor to see what games are available. If there are only a few “good” machines, I might be there at 4 a.m. for a promotion that starts at 6 a.m. If I had a friend or two who were interested in playing the same machine during the same promo, I might agree on a schedule where all of us got to play our hours over the 24-hour period. I would look for friends who could be depended on to play the hours they agreed to. I would not want someone who, say, would leave early if they got down $1,000 or so. If that happened, whoever had a “shift” after that might well not have a seat available.
  1. If the best game isn’t one I knew how to play, I would learn it. I sell strategy cards and Winner’s Guides for a number of games and the Wizard of Odds website has a video poker strategy calculator that works for several games. Videopoker.com has, for a fee, an online “Pro” game where you can practice and get corrections until you have a game mastered. You can get a monthly subscription or an annual one. The more time you have between knowing which games are available and the day the 5x NDB is in effect, the more time you have to perfect your skills. There will always be players who show up on the day of the promotion and “wing it” without preparation, but that’s not the practice I recommend.
  1. If I were a big player (say, $25 machines or maybe $5 Ten Play) I’d definitely check with Caesars Rewards if there’s a limit on how much I can earn in a day. If the 5x NDB were worth 2%, for example, playing 9/6 Double Double Bonus perfectly is worth about 101% until I reach the daily limit but only about 99% thereafter. That would certainly affect how many hours I wanted to attack the machines.
  1. Assuming profit maximization is my goal, with the NDB, with or without a multiplier, it can be better to play a lesser game EV-wise at higher stakes than a higher game EV-wise at lower stakes. For example, let’s assume for $1 stakes you can play 8-5 Bonus worth 99.17% and for $5 stakes 9/6 DDB, worth 98.98% is available. If you can play $4,000 coin-in per hour on the dollar game and $20,000 coin-in per hour on the $5 game, with most NDB amounts the DDB game has a higher dollar EV. Keep in mind that even though playing DDB has a higher dollar EV, the variance is much higher than that of BP and it’s possible to lose MUCH more than what you’ll get back from NDB. If you have the financial and psychological bankroll for this, go for it! But it’s not my fault if it doesn’t turn out well for you this particular time. As in all gambling, if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen!
  1. There are properties where even with 2% bounce back, there are no games I would consider playing. Since I don’t know which casino we’re talking about, I can’t give a definite recommendation to play. But if I lived relatively close and was going to be available on the day of the 5x event, I’d definitely check it out.
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Musings About Being an AP

Bob Dancer

I was having dinner with two winning slot/video poker players when one of them, “Al,” asked, “What was the first AP movie you watched?” I knew he said AP to mean “Advantage Player,” but I wasn’t exactly sure what kind of movie he meant? “Do you mean like ‘Rounders?’” This 1998 movie starred Matt Damon and Edward Norton.

That was exactly what Al was talking about, and that particular movie was the first AP movie he saw. I’m almost 35 years older than he is and remember the 1965 Steve McQueen, Edgar G. Robinson movie, “The Cincinnati Kid,” which Al had never heard about. The third player, “Bo,” played pool in his youth and remembered seeing “The Hustler,” the Paul Newman, Jackie Gleason movie that came out in 1961. 

A number of other movies were mentioned, and eventually I mentioned “The Sting,” the 1973 movie starring Paul Newman and Robert Redford. “Absolutely not!” declared Al. “That movie centers around a con, and there are a number of dishonest activities portrayed. Being an AP means you win by your wits without cheating!” 

I wasn’t particularly surprised by Al’s point of view. Al is a deeply religious man who lives his life with integrity. If he thinks an action is even a little bit sketchy, he’ll avoid it. While I don’t agree with all of his decisions, I highly respect them. 

For me, I consider myself an honorable person, but I do take some “shortcuts” along the way. One of the problems with the idea of avoiding cheating is that the definition of cheating is vague. It’s a bit like what Supreme Court Justice Potter wrote in 1964 about a very dissimilar situation, “I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.” Except what you conclude and I conclude can be different. Some matters haven’t been decided by the courts. Sometimes good lawyers can convince the courts that something is legal while the casinos wish it had been decided the other way.

For example: I play many games. While I have most of them mastered, I have many of the “semi-memorized.” On my cell phone, I have a Word document that lists the correct strategies for these games. I sometimes look at this strategy during play. Officially, in Nevada, this just may break the device law, while looking at the same strategy written on a piece of paper does not. This doesn’t make sense to me, but it might be the law. I use the argument, “Casinos aren’t likely to prosecute this,” to give me license to do it. Is this cheating? Not to me, but others disagree. Bob Nersesian, the best-known attorney for player-casino disputes has said if I did this and the casino took action against me, he would refuse to defend me. “The law is clear about this,” he has said. 

Assume a casino allowed its players in the top tier to have one day a month of 5x points, where the player got to choose which day was most convenient for her. Also assume a husband-and-wife team were both members of this tier. On one day a month they’d both play on his card, and on another day that month they’d both play on her card. To me, this is a smart, AP move. It certainly isn’t what the casino intended. Is it actually cheating? Al would probably think so, but I’m not sure. He is an unmarried 40-year-old (he can’t find a woman he likes who is as spiritual as himself, and this is his number one criterion). He’s played right next to me when I’ve hit a jackpot on Bonnie’s card, and he heard me explain the situation to the slot attendant. (Usually it’s no problem, but if a casino tells me not to do that in the future, I obey.) Al has never said a reproving word to me about this and he still considers me a good friend.

Now look at the players who have cards from 30 different players and basically live in that casino, playing with 5x points on a different card every day. To me this is clearly cheating. What’s the exact line between doing it on a spouse’s card and doing it on cards from “business partners?” I can’t tell you, but it’s something I feel strongly about.

Let’s say I have $1,000 in free play to pick up at a casino, but I won’t be in town during the time period the free play is active. I have a trusted friend who would be happy to play quarter video poker for an hour to redeem this in exchange for a $100 fee. Even if the casino has no better than 6/5 Bonus Poker (worth about 96.9%), the cost of playing $1,000 through is only a little more than $30 in expected value which is dwarfed by the size of the bonus. Before discussing whether I would do this or not, also consider a second case where it’s the same situation but this time I have $5 in free play to pick up. Also assume the casino would not be happy if it discovered somebody else was playing on my card.

Morally speaking, it makes no difference whether it’s $1,000 or $5 we’re talking about. It’s breaking the casino’s rules. Al would avoid this in both cases. For $5, though, I’d give that up without a qualm and for $1,000 I’d at least think about it pretty hard. Historically I have sometimes hired people to collect free play for me. Not always, but more than once.

My thoughts on this general subject have evolved over the years. Since I’ve been publishing my thoughts for close to 30 years, someone interested in proving that what I’m saying now conflicts with something I said a number of years ago could find evidence to support his view. I’m more interested in telling it like it is for me now than worrying about always being consistent with every thought I’ve had in the past.

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Should I Ask?

Bob Dancer

I was canvassing a casino looking for slot machines in favorable conditions. From 15 feet away I saw a Wolf Run Eclipse for $15 per pull. The numbers on the meters were high enough according to my guru, but not high enough according to most other sources. This is a good situation for me because most other pros would let the machine be. You can bet there were other slot pros circulating the casino. It’s a fact of life in most casinos these days.

There was a guy I’d never seen before sitting there with exactly $100 in credits. He didn’t have a player’s card inserted. He wasn’t playing the machine, but rather was talking flirtatiously to a young woman seated nearby. 

I tried to read the situation. Had he been dressed like a homeless person I would have concluded that he was trying to “sell” the machine to anyone who asked about it. After all, homeless people don’t play for $15 a hand generally. But he was clean-shaven and dressed nicely. He didn’t look homeless.

The fact that he had exactly $100 in credits indicated to me he had just put in a hundred-dollar bill and hadn’t started to play yet. I didn’t know what to make of the fact that he didn’t have a player’s card inserted. There are a number of possible explanations for that.

For a $15 game, $100 in credits wasn’t much ammunition. I might put in $500 or more before I hit the button the first time. It’s easier for me to keep track of how much money I’ve played if I put in $500 increments. I need this information so I can calculate wins and losses. But not everybody loads a machine before they start to play. Some players put in one bill at a time and only put in another bill when the credits get below the value of one hand.

I didn’t see anybody else hovering around waiting for him to leave. Which was good. Either this “opportunity” hadn’t been noticed by other pros yet, or the ones who had noticed didn’t think it was a good opportunity.

I went to check some nearby machines and returned in five minutes. Nothing had changed. He still had $100 in credits and was enjoying talking to the lady. I left to check some other machines, returning in another five minutes, and, again, nothing had changed.

Right or wrong, I decided to politely ask him if he was planning on playing that machine. I figured that possibly my asking him might be an impetus for him to take the lady for dinner or drinks or something. Or if he wanted to sell it to me, perhaps by suggesting I put in all the money and we split the winnings, I could deal with that. As I’ve written earlier, when that happens, I have no problem reporting him to a slot attendant. Usually, the slot attendant will tell him to either play the machine or get off of it. The fact that he had no players card in could indicate that he wasn’t planning on playing the machine anyway. My goal was to get the machine if it was going to become available soon — but not being rude about it.

 My hoped-for scenarios didn’t happen. He told me, also politely, that he was still planning on playing and the machine next to him was vacant. (Yes it was, but there was nothing playable on it.) I thanked him and moved on,

Twenty minutes later, I circled back, and the machine was vacant. I checked it and one of the minor meter (the one that was most attractive this time) was at reset — meaning that this guy, or somebody else, had played the game until it was no longer positive. Oh well, he found it first. I’ll find another game.

I’ve shared this story with a few of my pro friends. Some would have done the same. Some would have sat down at a nearby machine and just waited until the situation resolved itself. Some would have just walked on and never said a word to the guy. With this diversity of opinions, I’ve concluded that there is not a unique “correct” way to handle the situation — and my way was within acceptable limits.

What do you think?

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Aging in Reno

Bob Dancer

I’ve mentioned previously that Bonnie and I play at the Eldorado in Reno. Although we could drive, it’s easier to fly. One time, when we landed at the Reno airport, we took a shuttle to a casino I’ll call the Alamo rather than taking another shuttle to the Eldorado.

A little more than a month before this incident happened, I played for the first time at the Alamo. My goal was to get mailers at both the Alamo and the Eldorado. If we’re going through the expense of flying, it makes sense to have two or more stops once we get there rather than one. 

Because of this play at the Alamo, I got a mailer with some free play and $100 worth of food. It wasn’t enough free play to justify a separate flight to Reno, but as a brief stop on the way the Eldorado, it was well worth the time it took. It’s possible my future mailers would be larger at the Alamo if I skipped picking up this first offer, but I didn’t figure that out until later.

While the benefits of playing at the Eldorado are sufficient to keep us going back, and the high-end restaurants there are excellent, the midday meal options there leave a lot to be desired. So, we decided to use the entire $100 food comp from the Alamo. We’d eat what we wanted and take the rest “to go.” We carried three bags of food with us when we left.

From the Alamo, we took a Lyft to the Eldorado. We could have taken the Alamo shuttle back to the airport and from there caught the shuttle to the Eldorado. Given the uncertainty of the shuttle schedules, this could have easily taken an hour or more. A $15 dollar, 15-minute Lyft ride seemed to be a good investment. On this particular trip, we brought along one suitcase, one backpack, and a walker. I don’t absolutely “need” the walker, but I tire more easily than I did when I was younger and I’m often glad I have it. 

We went to the Gold Room at the Eldorado, which is what they call their VIP check-in area. Since the door to the Gold Room is heavy and we had our hands full with luggage, I went in alone while Bonnie waited outside “guarding” our stuff. After checking in, I returned. We gathered up our stuff and went to our room.

After a nap, I went down to the casino and played several hours. When I returned to the room after midnight, I discovered my backpack was not in the room. My laptop was in the backpack. The backpack is entirely black and  apparently just didn’t see it when we were gathering up our stuff. With the three bags of food, it seemed like we had our normal amount of luggage. I was exhausted and decided to wait until morning to deal with the problem. If the lost and found had the backpack now, they would have it in the morning. We had left it behind 10 or so hours before and there was no chance it was still where we left it. I didn’t sleep well. While I have my computer backed up, it’s a hassle and I wasn’t looking forward to it.

At 8:30 in the morning, I called the operator and asked to be put through to lost and found. The operator refused. She told me to go to the Caesars.com website and fill out a form. I didn’t want to do that. I played the “hapless senior citizen” card. “I’m 78 years old and not good with computers. Please let me speak to a real person.” The operator refused so I continued, “There is medicine in the backpack and it’s important I know whether it’s lost or not.” While this was an exaggeration, it wasn’t too far off the mark. I have a daily pill regimen, and pills for two days were in the backpack, but skipping these for a few days would not be a disaster. Still, I sensed that emphasizing the medicine might be my best bet to talk to a human. Eventually, the operator relented and transferred me to a security guard in charge of lost and found. 

They indeed had the backpack, including the laptop and everything else, and I was greatly relieved.

There are more and more similar incidents as I age. In the past few years, I’ve misplaced cell phones, keys, driver license, glasses, and departed a few slot machines without taking my TITO ticket with me. I’ve inadvertently left the garage door open when I drove away. Sometimes I’m fortunate and get my possessions back. Sometimes I don’t. While I occasionally lost things when I was younger, it’s happening more frequently as I age.

Bonnie, who is a few years older than me, loses things too. Probably more than I do. We each do our best to help the other, and we’re both glad we have each other to deal with these things, but sometimes it seems like it’s a case of the blind leading the blind.

While I’m still very glad I’m alive, there are more and more of these aggravating situations we need to deal with — at a time when we are less capable of dealing with them than we used to be. Someone suggested that this doesn’t seem fair, but to that a wiser man than me asked, “Compared to what?”

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How Can This Be?

Bob Dancer

In late February, I posted a blog about leaving a machine after hitting a jackpot. My opinion was that, unless the jackpot you hit was a progressive that changed the nature of whether the game was playable or not, I keep playing.

Most responders to the blog agreed with me, but David Miller posted the following: It has been my personal observation that when I hit a large jackpot and continued to play the same machine, I have never increased my winnings by this continuation of play. After 35+ years of playing video poker I can only think of two occasions of observing (and my own play) where another jackpot of any large amount occurred when one continued to play the same machine. My advice: Thank the Lord and take the money and run.

While I thank David for his response, I’m trying to figure out how such an experienced player came up with a conclusion so opposite my own.

David’s term “large jackpot” is somewhat vague. I’m going to arbitrarily define it as 800 coins or larger on a five-coin bet. This would include royals, four aces on many games, four 2s, 3s, and 4s with a kicker on many games, and four deuces on deuces wild games. With that definition, I’ve increased my score after hitting such a jackpot more than 500 times. And many times, I’ve witnessed players sitting near me hit multiple jackpots on the same machine. How can David have so few?

While “David” is a common name and I’ve met many Davids without always knowing a last name, I’m assuming I’ve never met him and I’m also assuming his post is on the level and he believes what he said. So, what I’m saying about him here is speculation. Here are the explanations I’ve come up with:

  1. He may have been thinking of royal flushes only when he said “large jackpot.” There are many fewer data points if you’re only thinking of those jackpots rather than the 800 coins or higher definition I chose. Hitting two royals in the same day is a pretty rare event. While I’ve done it, (more likely of course on multi-line games than single line games), I’ve played a lot more video poker than most others have.
  1. While 35+ years is longer than I’ve been playing, perhaps he doesn’t play very much each year. He could have played one weekend every three years, with three or four hours of video poker play per weekend visit. I’ve probably averaged more than 1,500 hours of play a year for the last 31 years. Even though his 35+ years is greater than my 31, if this supposition is true, I’ve played a lot more than he has.
  1. Possibly David doesn’t remember clearly. I don’t know his age or how good his memory is. Having played 35 years, he must be at least eligible for senior discounts.
  1. When David says something “never” happens, perhaps he isn’t speaking precisely. To me, “never” means never. Maybe to him, he means “rarely” rather than never.
  1. There’s a difference in how professional and recreational players play. When a professional player finds a good play, he can play on the same machine for hours — frequently accompanied by other strong players playing for hours. As a group, there will be jackpots numerous times over the course of a 35+ year career. Even if hitting a jackpot represents the “high water mark of the day” 80% of the time, the other 20% of the time scores will get bigger. Over the course of a long career, 20% of a large number of occurrences is a sizeable number.
  1. The explanation for David’s comments that I believe the most likely, stems from his behavior. Perhaps he changes machines immediately after he hits a jackpot. Since he believes he’s not going to increase his score if he continues to play on the same machine, changing machines for him seems like a smart strategy. If this is the strategy he uses, it’s no wonder he has never increased his score on the same machine after a jackpot simply because he never plays on the same machine after hitting a jackpot.

While I don’t believe in the value of changing machines, it’s not always possible for me anyway. Often the machine I want to play is either a one-of-a-kind or one-of-very-few. If I insist on leaving every time I get a jackpot, there may well not be one of similar EV available. 

If my final guess is the correct one, while David’s statement is true, it isn’t at all relevant to those players who stay on the same machine.

If David wants to respond to my comments here, he’s welcome to do so.