Category: Video Poker

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Do You Have What it Takes?

Bonnie and I recently cruised the Mexican Riviera on NCL, courtesy of Penn National — in particular M Resort. We’ve vacationed several times on the same cruise line courtesy of Harrah’s/Caesars, but this time it was from somewhere else.

I packed a lot of M logo shirts — of which I have dozens. Perhaps two or three times per week, M offers free gifts — such as shirts or alcohol, sometimes higher-end stuff. I rarely go down to pick up these gifts. It’s ten miles away; it causes another trip which can lower my mailer; and how much do I need another T-shirt anyway? A few times a year, however, they have a “Warehouse Blowout” event on a Sunday, where they “give away” unclaimed items. Depending on your tier level, you get one, two, or three tickets for free and you can earn another four tickets for play that day. If you do “play up” for extra tickets, you also qualify for a free Sunday lunch buffet — which is a quality meal at this casino.

Once inside, you spend your tickets on whatever you like — keeping in mind that the pickings are pretty slim (leftover alcohol rarely finds its way to these events). Often neither Bonnie nor I can find stuff we can’t live without, so T-shirts and polo shirts (for which you get two shirts for one ticket) are our default. More than once I’ve brought home eight or ten shirts.

On the ship, a senior couple, “Marge” and “Ed,” recognized the shirt I was wearing and told me they lived in Henderson, which is in the greater Vegas area. They played Double Double Bonus and told me the casino they played at, Emerald Island, had the 9/6 version on a 100-coin penny machine — a level at which they were comfortable. “We’re retired, you know, the casino is close to home, and they give us free food.”

“That’s fine,” I told them. “The game is costing you a penny a hand on average, assuming you play well, offset by whatever food they give you. It sounds like low-cost entertainment.”

“What do you mean ‘play well?’” Marge asked. “It’s pretty much common sense.”

“Every hand has a mathematically correct play. Let me ask you some basic ones,” I said. “How would you play A♠ Q♥ J♣ 7♦ 4♣?” I knew the correct choice was QJ, but many DDB players hold just the ace. Occasionally some players without a clue hold AQJ.

“I’d throw them all away,” Marge announced.

Whoa! This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the game is played. I wasn’t sure how to tell her that without insulting her.

“No,” I told her. “That’s not close. Sorry.”

“How do you know?” she asked.

“Computer programs tell you how to play every hand. Over time I’ve learned correct plays,” I told her.

“I’ve never heard of that,” Ed said.

“Do you guys own a PC?” I asked. They did. My computer, with Video Poker for Winners installed, was in my cabin. I was willing to spend a few minutes showing them — but if they hadn’t owned a computer there was no hope that they’d remember enough hints to make a difference.

When we got to my cabin, I let the computer deal hands just to see where they were. I had it set on “Advanced” so the hands were tougher than average. I didn’t do this to be mean — it’s just that they are more interesting. Having the computer ask them if they know how to play Q♥ Q♣ 7♦ 7♠ 7♥ is a waste of their time and mine.

One hand was K♠ Q♥ J♣ 9♣ 7♣. This is not a beginner level hand. Not all players would correctly play KQJ9. Some would hold KQJ and other hold J97. But not Ed and Marge.

“I’d hold king jack,” Ed told me. “Holding queens is always unlucky.”

“And I’d throw them all away,” Marge chimed in.

These were both awful decisions

Next was K♦T♦7♦ 6♠ 3♥. Ed held the KT and Marge held the K. Both wrong, but at least reasonable. They didn’t come close on three of the next five hands we tried.

There are some people who just aren’t smart enough to play intelligent video poker. I concluded I was talking to two of them. I didn’t suggest they buy the Winner’s Guide for the game because I think it would have been incomprehensibly difficult for them.

I did suggest they get the software. I told them that if they practiced a couple of hours a week before they played, and attempted to play like the computer recommended, they would save more than a thousand dollars a year.

Marge was doubtful. “I’ve seen people use strategy cards, including some with your name on them,” she told me. “They don’t do any better than anybody else.”

I asked Marge if she knew for sure how well she and Ed were doing gambling-wise this year. She didn’t. “Keeping records is too much like work. We’re retired, you know.”

I wanted to ask her how she could possibly know that somebody else was doing better or worse than she was if she didn’t even know how well she was doing? Surely, she had no strong knowledge of how the other person was doing either.

But I didn’t. I did tell them that strategy cards worked well if you practiced with them and used them regularly.

I also told her that I’d be teaching beginner DDB at the South Point, probably in January. I invited them and promised it would help them a lot. Although the DDB class is for beginners, they would probably still find it too difficult.

They left with a “we’ll think about it.” (I know what that means! It means I should assume 10-1 odds against them showing up for class.)

Playing video poker intelligently isn’t for everybody. It takes a certain level of the right kind of intelligence. Not everybody has a chance to succeed.

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It Takes More Than a Book

In addition to where my blogs usually appear, starting a few months ago they also have been found at www.gamblingwithanedge.com. This is a site created by the folks at The Las Vegas Advisor and groups together podcasts from the radio show and blogs from a number of successful gamblers.

One feature of that site is it’s a handy place to post your own comments for or against anything written. Today’s blog was inspired by comment written about one of my recent blogs. It wasn’t an unfriendly comment. It wasn’t a personal attack of any sort. It was likely intended as gentle teasing. But nonetheless I disagree strongly with what was written.

The blog in question was dated October 25, 2016 and part of it referred to an incident where I “instructed” my ex-wife Shirley on my way of gambling. More than one reader responded with how they have taught spouses how to gamble.

One reader posed the following:  My wife and I have been married for 44 years. She has just started to play VP. Instead of me teaching her I just gave her a copy of Bob’s book on how to win at JoB…….if she loses there is only one person (other than herself) to blame……sorry Bob.

Thanks for plugging my Winner’s Guide (actually co-written with Liam W. Daily). If I personally were trying to learn a game and someone had already created that kind of a book, it would definitely be part of my learning process. I use all sorts of sources to help myself get better at things.

With that said, tossing someone a Winner’s Guide and telling them they’re now on their own is a lousy way to teach them how to play a winning game.

Why? Because people learn in different ways. Some people learn by reading. Some learn by listening. Some learn by doing and being corrected. Some people are A students and very proficient at comprehending what they read, but more people aren’t.

A Winner’s Guide make a lot more sense if you also are using computer software along with it. I personally use Video Poker for Winners, WinPoker, and Wolf Video Poker to assist me. For learning a new game they all work, and each has small  advantages the others don’t.

Even with a computer and a book, most players can’t tell you when Q♠ T♠ 8♠ is more valuable than a 4-card inside straight with three high cards in the same hand. Studying at that level by themselves is beyond what most players can or will do. A personal tutor (assuming that’s what you call an accomplished player who has already learned the game well) can explain this easily enough, but it will often take several repetitions before the new student has it mastered. And then a few weeks or months later, a review will often be required. And then later, another review.This kind of information doesn’t stick firmly in the minds of many.

Perhaps more fundamentally, even though the Jacks or Better Winner’s Guide can help teach you how to play each hand correctly, it won’t turn you into a winning player. Although there are some exceptions in a few places, the best common version of the game returns 99.54% before including the slot club and other benefits. That means the house has an edge of 0.46% if you can play perfectly — and it takes a while to learn how to play perfectly.

The concepts of free play, mailers, promotions, comps, and other goodies won’t be learned from the Winner’s Guides. These concepts are every bit as important as how to play the hands correctly, and are arguably more difficult to learn.

Plus, they keep changing. Very few slot clubs are the same today as they were three years ago. Similar, yes. Identical, no. And knowing where those differences lie can make or break you.

Although my blogs sometimes address these subjects, I may be talking about casinos and/or stakes which you don’t play. For “local” (to the student) information, that student is going to need local tutoring.

Does every reader of my blog need to be a tutor? No, of course not. But thinking that you’ve done a good job teaching by giving the student a book, even a good book, is fooling yourself. It takes a lot more than a book.

And if you become a teacher to help somebody else, you will become a better player in the process.

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Waiting for Wednesday

Bonnie and I regularly shop at a Sprouts Farmers Market, a grocery chain found in a few Western states. It’s kind of like a health food store — with less expensive produce.

One feature of the stores is that their ads run Wednesday to Wednesday. That generally makes shopping on “Double Ad” Wednesdays the most efficient because you get to take advantage of both last week’s sale prices as well as next week’s.

On a recent Tuesday, I was on my way home from somewhere and realized I would pass by a Sprouts market on the other side of town. I called Bonnie to see if there was anything we needed before the next day — which would be a Wednesday and our usual shopping day.

“No,” Bonnie answered, “but I just saw the new flyer. Starting tomorrow they’ll have yellow peaches for 77¢ a pound.”

“Excellent!” I responded. “I can’t wait for Wednesday!”

Okay. Maybe I exaggerated. I enjoy eating peaches and at good prices I enjoy them even more. But if I didn’t get them, my life would still work pretty well.

(For whatever reason, sometimes when I say things like that I get comments such as, “If Dancer really has a million dollars or two, he wouldn’t care whether peaches cost 77¢ or $7.77 a pound.” To that I answer that getting a couple million is one problem. Keeping a couple million or more is a different problem. People who live frugally have a better chance of getting a large bankroll AND have a better chance of keeping it once they have it.)

Let’s go from here to video poker.

I often plan my plays in advance. For example, as I write this I know that next Saturday beginning at 5 a.m. I’m going to play a certain number of points requiring quite a few hours on a particular machine at the M casino. There are reasons I play that much starting at that time. For this article, we don’t need to go into why I do that. For now, just assume I think it’s a good play. But I prepare my life so that I can be present and alert at that hour. This includes eating properly, exercising, monitoring alcohol intake, and adjusting my sleep time a day or two in advance.

I also played a promotion at South Point in September where I needed to play $1,600 a day on both my card and Bonnie’s every day anytime between midnight and midnight. Some days I get there at 11:30 p.m. and do the “today’s” play — and then after midnight do “tomorrow’s” play. That takes planning. I would NOT be doing that the same day as when I would have to be at M at 5 a.m.  I would be more alert during the M play if I’m sleeping at midnight the night before.

I may, however, do my Friday play at South Point sometime in the middle of the day and show up at 4:30 a.m. Saturday at that casino to do my Saturday points. The casinos are only a few miles apart and it’s efficient to go from one to the other in the same trip, but not if I have to kill four hours between one and the other.

In these cases, I am actually looking forward to the play. “Can’t wait,” so to speak. Part of the “game” is to be alert and be competent on the particular game I’ll be playing. I’m very satisfied with my competency at most games that I play and I don’t need to review them very often. But sometimes it’s a once-every-three-months play on a machine I play nowhere else and I need to spend an hour or more getting ready for it.

Sometimes, looking forward to the play is because of the stakes. Playing for hours at $50 or more per play requires more “getting ready” than playing $1,600 (for each of two people) for an entire session. The latter is done on $2 NSU machines and I’m basically always able to do that no matter how exhausted I am. But playing several hours at $125 a hand is another story altogether. My annual score isn’t going to be affected much by $1,600 coin-in sessions. It could very easily be affected one way or the other by $200,000 or bigger sessions. I want to be at my best at these times.

Another part of the “looking forward to it” is just the juggling of my schedule (which includes keeping Bonnie happy) so that I’m able to do what I want when I need to do it. This juggling is not always a trivial problem, but it’s a key part to being a successful player. A part that isn’t usually listed under “important skills to have in order to be a winning player.”

Often when you’re juggling your schedule you need to come to grips with the fact that you can’t always have it all. For me, that includes remembering that chasing every good promotion takes a backseat to doing what Bonnie wants to do. At least some of the time.

And I can also say that not wanting to wait for peaches to be 77¢ a pound is a lesser thing entirely than not wanting to be unprepared at 5 a.m. on Saturday.

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They Said It – But They Probably Didn’t Mean It

On September 15, I received an email from a host at the Silverton stating that two weeks later, September 29, there was going to be a Diamond Appreciation Party by the pool starting at 5:30. Light hors d’oeuvres, cocktails, and 12x points from 5 p.m. – midnight for those who checked into the party.

For those who aren’t familiar with the Silverton’s slot club, the base club returns 0.30% and the loosest game is 8/5 Bonus which is a 99.2% game. Adding 3.6% (i.e. 12x points) in free play is very juicy. In the past year or so, they have regularly had big point multipliers for slots and have had 2x points for video poker once. Never more than that. Even though they rarely offer point multipliers for video poker, a number of machines in the High Limit room have small stickers on them that say point multipliers aren’t valid there.

But this invitation didn’t say 12x points for “reels only.” It didn’t say anything like “limited to xxx points.” It didn’t say “check at the club for complete details.” It didn’t say “management reserves all rights.” It said 12x points from 5 p.m. to midnight if you check into the party. My guess is that the hosts made up the invitation and aren’t used to dotting all of the i’s and crossing all the t’s.

So, was this worth a play?

I decided to test the waters first. On several occasions I went to the slot club and asked if there were rules published for the party. If so, surely the rules would list the disclaimers. But there were no rules published.

I made it a point to not talk to any host in the two weeks prior to the party. If they told me “reels only,” that would kill the play before it began.

I figured I could play about $200,000 coin-in. My expected loss at 8/5 Bonus was (round numbers) $1,700 offset by $600 in free play if I only got single points. But if I got 12x points, I’d receive an extra $6,600 — making me a $5,500 favorite for 6.5 hours play — assuming I started at 5:30. (There was a final drawing at the South Point that night where your EV if called was $4,250, but it was not guaranteed I’d be called — neither Bonnie nor I were called the first four weeks — so I didn’t even play for that drawing that week.)

I decided to go for it. I had no other plays that night worth $5,500 in EV.

The two best eligible machines were $1 Spin Poker ($45 per play) and $10 single line. I could get more coin-in on the $10 machine, but it would also attract more attention as every four of a kind and higher generated a W2G. I figured to get 10-15 hand-pays — which would definitely get their notice. I’m a well-known player and me hammering that machine for so long would be very atypical. It’s possible they would ask me why I was playing — and I didn’t want to have that conversation. The Spin Poker machines (actually All Star Poker machines where Spin Poker is my game of choice) are frequently busy and my presence there would probably not cause any undue attention.

I also wanted to be first in line for the 5:30 party. If they opened the doors at 5:00, that would give me an extra half hour of play worth another $500 or so to me. They didn’t do that. I also wanted to see if there were any signs up at the check-in saying anything about reels only or some kind of limit. There weren’t.

Bonnie and I were both invited — and we both got to bring a guest. We invited a married couple — who understood that I would probably be playing and not staying for the party. So I got the machine I wanted, created some $1,000 “tickets,” and had Bonnie hold the machine while I took the husband and went to check into the party. He stayed and I went to release the girls — and started to play.

There were some other players who also decided this promotion was too good to pass up and decided to play on the same bank of machines. I don’t know how many players were playing elsewhere in the casino for the promotion. I know at least two well-known players chose to play the Hundred Play machines even though they had a “no multipliers” sticker. I’m guessing most video poker players ASSUMED the casino meant slots only and didn’t realize that some key words were missing.

I ran salty. Playing $200,000, I lost $8,900. Even if I collected the full $7,200 for the 12x points, I’d still be down $1,700. The other players playing Spin Poker more than made up for my shortfall— if they got the points. Oh well. Being on the positive side of variance would have been more fun but anything can happen in the short run. I’d love to find another situation like this someday. My negative result this time wouldn’t slow me down in the least at trying it next time.

At the kiosk, there is a screen which shows the date and time and how many points you’ve played today. I took a picture at 5:30 p.m. and another at 11:58 p.m. — so if it came to a dispute of how much I played when, I’d have the backup. If it ever came to going to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, I wanted to have this evidence. I didn’t think there would be a dispute about “how much and when,” nor did I think it would get to the NGCB in the first place, but you never know. Better to have the evidence and not need it than risk not having it when it could end up being necessary.

Now came the tricky part. Collecting the extra $6,600 in free play. I was pretty sure it wasn’t going to be given to me automatically. I’d have to talk the casino into it. The other players playing Spin Poker were willing to let me have the first shot at collecting the extra points mainly because I’m more experienced at successfully negotiating with casinos. I told them I’d keep them posted.

On other promotions at the Silverton, they sometimes say they need up to 72 hours to put the extra points on the card. Okay. On Sunday evening I went to the slot club booth and asked to speak to the manager. Alicia (possibly not the way she spells her name — I didn’t see her badge) told me the 12x points were for reels only and there was a limit of 60,000 points. I told her that there was nothing published that said anything like that and I asked whether she would like to see the invitation?

Neither agreeing nor disagreeing with my position, she told me adding 2.2 million points to my card was not something she was authorized to do and said she’d email the marketing manager, Diane, who would reach out to me Monday. On Tuesday Diane and I spoke and she told me the decision needed to be made by her boss, Sheila, who wouldn’t be in until Wednesday.

The fact that I lost $8,900 on the play before slot club benefits was, in my opinion, an irrelevant factor insofar as whether or not I should get the extra 2,200,000 points. But I figured it might make a difference to the decision-makers. After all, even if they paid me, they still made money (on me anyway. Not so much on the others.) So I mentioned it. If I had a winning score, I would have kept quiet about it.

There were a number of additional phone calls and some emails, but eventually Sheila called me Friday and told me I would be given all of the points — but it possibly wouldn’t happen before Monday. No problem. Sheila would not discuss the other players with me, and said they’d have to contact her if they wanted their situation to be considered. Okay. I passed that message along.

Overall, I feel the Silverton handled this honorably. They didn’t mean to offer the 12x points to video poker players — but apparently they reread the invitations and decided they should do the right thing. Hat’s off to the Silverton. (If you think casinos always act this way Google “Phil Ivey Borgata”.)

A strange “coincidence” happened after the Diamond Appreciation Party and before it was resolved. The 5¢, 10¢, and 25¢ Hundred Play machines in the High Limit room were downgraded from 8-5 Bonus to 7-5 Bonus. These were by far the most popular machines in the casino — coin-in-wise. (Not so much after the downgrade.)

These machines weren’t eligible for this promotion because they had a “multipliers not valid here” sticker on them, so I didn’t play them. I would have MUCH preferred to play machines where I could “invest” $125 per play than $45 per play so long as I had a 2.8% advantage. I could have still lost of course, but it would have been much less likely and my EV would have been something like $12,000 rather than a mere $5,500.

As mentioned before, some well-known players chose to ignore the stickers and play on those machines anyway and try to talk their way into the points later. They could argue the stickers were small and hard to read (very true) and the lighting in the room was very dim (also true.) Still, the stickers have been there for a year or so. Most video poker players who play enough to be Diamond know about those stickers.

The pay schedules were pulled a few days later. If the casino was burned on the Diamond Appreciation party, it seems to me to be far more sensible to post bigger stickers so there could be no misunderstanding.

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New Video Poker Games at G2E from a Player’s Point of View

At this year’s G2E gaming show, I published a discussion of new video poker games — written for casino managers. You can see that here.

Today’s article is addressed to players — but it assumes you have read the previous article. Any phrasing that is exactly the same in the two articles is listed in italics, so you can skip that part if you’ve read the earlier words.

IGT

  1. Magic Deal Poker

This is a 10-coins-per-line game. It plays like regular video poker, except about 3.8% of the time, on the deal, you receive one, two, or (very rarely) three mystery cards.

In general, I liked this game. It is similar to Dream Card poker, except:

Dream Card has one mystery card whose value is determined BEFORE the draw. You can change the dream card if you don’t like the card selected by the machine.

  1. Magic Deal has one, two, or three mystery cards whose value is determined AFTER the draw. You cannot change such mystery cards, although in no cases did I see a hand where the machine picked a less-than-max-value card.
  2. Dream Card has obnoxious sound effects; fortunately, they’re missing from this game.

Another way to phrase the mystery cards occurring 3.8% of the time is to say that they happen 1-in-26 hands. That means you are paying twice what the hands are worth 25 out of 26 hands — and then hopefully you catch up when the multipliers come.

For players who “test the waters” by playing a few hands to see how things are going, this game will very frequently cause your score to drop like a stone. For players who believe that today’s score matters, this game will cause many of you to go away muttering.

The correct plays when you receive one or more mystery cards aren’t always that obvious. Letting an M stand for a mystery card and assuming you were playing a game just like 9/6 Double Double Bonus (except for the 10-coin per line ante and the occasional mystery card(s)), how would you play this hand: K♠ Q♠ Q♦ M M?

Deuces Wild players who see the mystery cards as basically equivalent to wild cards will hold QQMM, which would be correct in Deuces Wild. This is the wrong play here. KQMM is a much better play. Why is the play in this game different from the way you’d play in Deuces Wild? Because if you draw one of the remaining three royal cards in Deuces Wild, you’ll get paid for a wild royal, frequently worth 125 coins. If you draw one of the same cards in Mystery Card, you’ll get paid for a 4,000-coin natural royal.

  1. Ultimate X Spin Poker

Ultimate X and Spin Poker are both popular games — and this game links them well. It should work. Ultimate X is a 10-coins-per-line game and Spin Poker doesn’t require any additional money to play, so this game also costs 10 coins per line — or 90 coins overall.

Players who try to figure the correct strategy on this game will find it a much different problem than figuring out how to play “regular” Ultimate X. In regular Ultimate X, each of the lines deals with its own 47-card pack of cards — which is the original 52 cards minus the five you were dealt.

In the Spin Poker version, you have one 52-card deck in play. If you draw the A♥, for example, in one of the fifteen spaces, you cannot also draw the same card in another place. Additionally, because of the way the lines in Spin Poker cross each other, you’ll usually get each card drawn in three separate lines (although it will be two lines or five lines in the center column.)

What this means is that the variance in the Spin Poker version of Ultimate X will be significantly higher than it is in the Ten Play version of Ultimate X. Those who play regular Ultimate X know it already has a sky-high variance.

I really dislike it that you can’t play off your multipliers at the end of a session by betting five coins. I know there are players who make their living playing off these multipliers, but as a player who plays the game for hours at a time I find the regular stream of players coming in a checking the multipliers on every game of every machine to be annoying.

  1. Bonus Streak Ultimate X

This is a very difficult game to play at 10-coins-per-line. Instead of the usual multipliers you earn on the next hand in regular Ultimate X, here you earn a stream of multipliers over the next several hands. That is, you might earn a stream of 2x, 3x, 4x, 8x,12x over the next five games. If while playing this stream you receive a paying hand big enough to create additional multipliers (at least 3-of-a-kind in most games) all remaining multipliers on that line go to 12x.

The stream of multipliers created by getting certain hands creates a nightmare for players to analyze. “Regular” Ultimate X is tough enough and the games overhold the par sheet values. This game will be much tougher. And the correct strategy will be very different from that of “regular” Ultimate X. I see this game only being successful for low stakes for recreational players.

This game is very difficult to play correctly. There are many, many different possible combinations of multiplier streams. In addition, low paying hands (usually Jacks or Better and Two Pair in games without wild cards) do NOT earn multipliers. This makes basic strategy on this game very different from that of regular Ultimate X.

  1. Color Match Royals

The premise of the game is that the hand A♣ K♠ Q♣ J♠ T♠ is called a Black Royal, paying 2000 coins, and the hand A♦ K♦ 7♥ 4♥ 2♦ is called a Red Flush, which pays a little less than a regular flush. You also have black and red straight flushes.

Although I don’t know the exact strategy, it appears as though you should go for “color flushes” a high percentage of the time. This makes the game very boring as you are generally trying for a hand worth 20 coins when you have to pay 10 coins to play. If you don’t go for the color flushes, you’re giving up a lot of expected value.

Currently on www.videopoker.com there’s a free tutorial on how to play this game.  It is a simplified strategy, but I know of none better out there.

I do not like this game very much. To me, it doesn’t pass the “fun to play” test.

There are streams talking about this game on vpFREE, wizardofvegas, videopoker.com, and possibly other sites as well. I am not alone in my non-appreciation. Check out those discussions if you want more information.

  1. Super Triple Play Jackpots

Generally, I liked this game — but not the name. This is a form of “Wheel Poker.” Possibly there are some patent or royalty issues I don’t understand, but using “Wheel Poker” in the title would tell players what they are getting.

This game combines Super Triple Play, which is a 6-coin-per-line game where you get higher-than-usual payouts on 4-of-a-kinds (usually, depending on the game), and Wheel Poker, where you also pay an extra coin per line and you get to spin the wheel when you receive a 4-of-a-kind. Adding these games together makes this a 7-coins-per-line game.

The strategy is relatively easy to figure out assuming you have an approximately-correct figure for the average wheel spin.

In the original Wheel Poker, the wheel spin was worth about 430 on average. If I were collecting data while playing, I’d start with that number. I’d collect data on at least a few thousand spins before I came up with my “final answer.”

  1. Flip & Pay Poker

This was my favorite new game in this year’s mix. The game is relatively easy to understand without software, and the idea is different and interesting.

This is a 10-coin-per-line game, where the machine will flip at most one card under the following conditions:

  1. One card will be flipped one rank higher or lower, and always the same suit. That is, the 8♣ will only be flipped to a 9♣ or a 7♣.
  2. This is done with a 52-card deck, so if there is an A♦ 2♦ on the deal, the 2♦ will not flip to an A♦ because there aren’t duplicates in a 52-card deck.
  3. The resulting hand must be two pair or higher for flipping to occur.
  4. The flipped hand must be higher in Expected Value than the unflipped hand.

For example, if you were dealt 5♠ 6♥ 7♣ 8♦ 8♠, one of the 8s will flip to a 9, giving you a dealt straight.

If you don’t like the flipping, you can unflip. Sometimes some of the flips may seem strange. For example, in Triple Double Bonus, assume you are dealt A♣ A♦ 5♠ 6♥ 7♣, the machine will flip to AA557 or AA667 or AA577. Whether the machine flips or not, good players are just going to hold the pair of aces and throw away the other three cards.

Most players will not be sure whether it’s better to be dealt AA667 or AA567, given you’re just going to be holding the aces. The machine likes flipping to two pair (correctly!) but which is better is a mystery to most players and many will unflip.

My only problem with the game is the machine makes the choices and many players will be unsure why choices were made. The rules aren’t all that difficult — but they’re a bit tricky until you get used to them. A player dealt A♦ A♠ A♥ K♠ 5♥ REALLY wants that king to be flipped to an ace and may get angry when it doesn’t happen. If a floor person or shift manager is called over, that person MUST be fluent with the reason the K doesn’t flip to an ace (because the player already has an A♠ and the hand can’t contain two of them).

When I first played the game, I didn’t read the help screens. I tried to figure out the rules for myself. I tried to come up with cases where the smart player would unflip — such as K♦ Q♦ J♦ T♦ 8♠. If the 8 flipped to a 9, giving you a straight, you definitely should want to unflip. You’re going to throw the card away anyway, but you want all four 9s still in the pack rather than just three of them. When I read the rules for flipping, they said cards were only flipped when there was an increase in EV — so that should mean the 8 would not be flipped to a 9. But I’m not sure. That’s a fairly rare hand and nobody in the booth was positively sure how the game was programmed.

Scientific Games

The only other company I saw at the show that offered “ready everywhere now” new video poker games was Scientific Games. What they offered is a very close copy of IGT’s Triple Play series of games on which the patent expired not so long ago.

The Scientific Games version includes Single Hand, Triple Hand, Five Hand, Ten Hand, Twenty-Five Hand, Fifty Hand, and Hundred Hand games on the same machine. Players will figure out quickly that Fifty Hand is basically the same game as Fifty Play. The game titles are the same ones used by IGT, namely Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, Double Double Bonus, etc.

In two of the games, Scientific Games uses a different name than IGT does. It may have been intentional, but both times it struck me as a typographical mistake. They used the name Triple Bonus for a game that IGT calls Triple Double Bonus. Triple Bonus is an older game based on Kings or Better and it’s very different from Triple Double Bonus. Also, Scientific Games has a game called Joker’s Wild rather than Joker Wild.

The pay schedules on the Scientific Games are very similar to the IGT pay schedules, except often the straight flush pays 275 coins rather than 250. This adds about 0.05% to the player and is essentially a type of bribe to induce players to try the Scientific Games version rather than IGT’s.

So far this game hasn’t sold well, so players may never see it.

The game has several features of the latest WMS games (which came out two or three years ago.) WMS has been swallowed up by Scientific Games which is why you see those features here. As I recall, Station Casinos (now Red Rock Resorts) had the Las Vegas locals market monopoly on these games, and Harrah’s (now Caesars) had the national monopoly. These two casino chains never put these machines with good pay schedules so they didn’t take off. Once other casinos saw their results, they didn’t want the games either.

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A Mistake That Didn’t Cost Me

I happen to believe that mistakes cost you — even when they don’t. Say you were playing 9/6 Double Double Bonus for single line dollars, five coins bet, and were dealt 3♦ K♠ K♥ 3♣ 8♦.  Assume you’re knowledgeable enough and disciplined enough to know that holding KK33 is correct — but you were playing fast and only held KK because you saw the high pair but didn’t see two pair.

Further, assume the three cards you draw are 5♠ A♥ 9♣. Holding the kings only you end up with five credits. Had you held the two pair and ended up with the same draw (specifically only the 5♠), you would still end up with five credits. Many people believe this to be a no harm-no foul “non-event.”

I believe it cost you $1.16 in EV which is the difference in EV between holding KK33 and KK.

While it is true that you can’t take EV to the bank, my decisions in video poker (including which games to play, where, and when) all come down to EV. Over time, my actual results and my EV results will be fairly close.

They will never (okay, extremely rarely) be EXACTLY the same, but close enough. If they happened to be exactly the same and I played one more hand, they would usually be different. (If you want actual results and EV results to be identical all of the time, consider playing a change machine. You insert a hundred-dollar bill and get out five twenties. Put one of them back in and receive four fives. Put one of them back in and receive five ones. Then you take all that to the cashier and receive a $100 bill. Repeat. What fun!)

Each misplay I make costs me EV, and over time, those mistakes add up.

In the last week of August, there was a promotion at the Palms where video poker players received either a 2x or 3x multiplier every day. The base slot club returns 0.25%, so this means you would get either 0.50% or 0.75%. They limited the number of bonus points you could get to 80,000, so this meant if you received a 2x multiplier you could play $80,000 coin-in and if you received a 3x multiplier you could play $40,000 coin-in to max out your bonus points.

If this doesn’t make sense, don’t worry about it. Supposedly on October 1, Red Rock Resorts (formerly called Station Casinos) will be taking over and what is now Palms may be called something like Palms Station and be incorporated into the Boarding Pass system.

Since Station Casino has cut me off from receiving benefits long ago, along with several hundred other players, I do not anticipate playing at this casino once it changes ownership. And before October 1, I will convert my remaining Palms Club points to free play so I don’t have to worry about converting them once the casino changes names. If for some reason the conversion to Palms Station doesn’t go through, I can always start earning Palms Club points all over again.

Anyway, the only “decent” Ultimate X games at Palms that offer slot club points are 15-9-4-4-3 Deuces Wild. In the Ten Play version, this game returns 99.44%. With single or double points, a player is “under water” on the game, although that can possibly be made up with drawings, other promotions, and mailers. With triple points, the player has a slight advantage — with the drawings, other promotions, and mailers still on the table.

So I play this game during triple point days and avoid it otherwise. The machines come in 50¢ and $1 denominations, meaning $50 or $100 per 100-coin max bet. You can play it for Triple Play or Five Play with smaller maximum bets, but when you do the EV on the game is only 99.13% or 99.27% respectively. Not for me.

The strategy I use, which I will teach in my September 28 class at South Point, is broken down by the sum of the multipliers active at any one time. The multipliers may be anywhere between 10x and 120x. In the one-deuce section, for example, I recommend one strategy for multiplier sums between 10x and 31x, another strategy between 32x and 53x, a third strategy between 54x and 75x, and a fourth strategy between 76x and 120x.

So there are four different (but similar) strategies in the zero-deuce section and four more for the two-deuce section. In the three-deuce section, there are only two strategies for multipliers below 96x, and six more for those rare cases where it’s above 96x. For four deuces, there is only one strategy no matter what the multiplier sum is. I’m not going to tell you what it is.

In 2016, I’ve only played this game four times because it’s been rare when the conditions are good enough. So I haven’t committed this strategy to memory. It’s tougher than average to memorize and it’s a long time between opportunities, so I practice maybe a half hour before potential play and bring the strategy sheets with me.

The Palms is fewer than 10 miles from my home, so it’s not terribly inconvenient to go in and check whether my multiplier would be 2x (which means I wouldn’t play) or 3x (which means I would.) Every day I had the strategy with me — in case. I would show up slightly after midnight because there would be less competition for the machines at that hour. I’m not the only one who plays this game on 3x point days.

On Monday, August 29, I received a 2x multiplier. Tuesday, August 30, I received a 3x multiplier, and I sat down and played 40,000 points. I ended up a small winner, which was fortunate. Ultimate X has a VERY high variance and on any particular day, your score can be quite a bit ahead or quite a bit behind.

The last three days of the week, I received 2x multipliers each time and didn’t play. But I didn’t know it before I got there. So I practiced a bit, took my strategy with me, and was well rested when I showed up.

My strategy, which is on three sheets of 8½” x 11” paper is carried in a library book. If it takes awhile to be paid (like, for example, on an “in my dreams” hand of a dealt straight flush followed by a dealt royal which would pay $240,000 or $480,000 depending on which denomination I was dreaming about), I’ll read my book. Also, the sheets of copy paper last longer if they are protected by being in a book rather than carried loosely.

The last time I went to check my multiplier, however, I made a mistake. I had two library books checked out and the book I put my strategy in was not the one I ended up taking to the casino. So had the multiplier been 3x (it wasn’t), I wouldn’t have had the strategy with me.

Had I received the correct multiplier, I would have asked the attendant to lock up the machine, gone home to pick up the strategy, and been back within a half hour or so. It would have been a tad inconvenient, but not an EV loss, unless you want to argue that time is money and gas isn’t free and I wouldn’t have a good rejoinder to that. Still, I need to be more careful and wish I hadn’t made this mistake.

If this machine and opportunity is still available after October 1, you’ll have to find out from somebody else. I don’t expect to be welcome there.

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Not Very Well Thought Out

In a recent online blog, Jean Scott wrote how she’d  run a slot club.

Among other things, she said: “I’d never run an unfair promotion, like a slot-point marathon where quarter players are competing with $5 players. People like a promotion where everyone has at least a chance to win.”

If she owned a casino she could run any promotions she wanted. If she ran a casino without owning it, it’s hard to imagine her keeping her job. With suggestions like she put forth here, it’s hard to believe any casinos would seriously consider her suggestions. Let’s look at what her ideas would cover:

  1. Assume a casino executive wants to get more play out of his $5 machines. He believes giving $25,000 away to players for a slot marathon might be a good way to draw in the players he wants. Jean would tell that casino manager not to do it because a 25¢ player wouldn’t have a chance. If I were advising the casino, I might tell him to go ahead — depending on a variety of factors. I’d also advise any 25¢ player who asked for my advice not to bother competing. It’s not smart to bring a knife to a gun fight.

 

  1. Jean advocated doing away with all promotions geared for seniors because players under 50 have no chance to win. Personally I think senior drawings make sense for players and casinos.

 

  1. At the Palms, on certain days of the week, if you play $500 in coin-in you get either a movie ticket or car wash coupon. Jean would do away with these promotions because some people can’t afford to play that much.

 

  1. Caesars Entertainment awards Seven Stars players a free cruise every year. Jean apparently advocated that Caesars stop doing this because it discriminates against players who aren’t Seven Stars.

 

  1. The South Point invites almost 1,000 of their top players to a player appreciation party every year — where you get a nice dinner including an open bar, some chance at door prizes, $500 in free play, and some new electronic something. One year it was a top-of-the-line iPad. One year a Kindle Fire. One year it was a computer tablet. One year it wasn’t electronics but dinner for two at Michael’s, the South Point gourmet restaurant — where ordering $300 in entrees and a $200 bottle of wine — or more — was quite acceptable. I would tell Michael Gaughan that this is a fine gesture and is appreciated by these players. According to her words, Jean would tell him to stop it because it’s unfair. If you can’t invite everybody, you shouldn’t invite anybody.

 

  1. I presume she would do away with VIP check-in and rules that allow VIPs to stand in much shorter lines at the buffet, the cashier, and other places. And VIPs should pay the same resort fees that everybody else does. And while we’re at it, let’s forget about their amenity baskets (not that there’s much in them anymore.)

 

Do I seriously think Jean advocates these things? No. Of course not. It’s what she wrote many years ago in an article she recently found when cleaning her computer files.  She may have meant it long ago, but if actions speak louder than words, she doesn’t mean it now.

Jean used to be a quarter player (weren’t we all!) and probably wrote the first draft of this back in those days. She saw the world through the eyes of a quarter player and believed the casino should go out of its way to take care of quarter players. It was a ridiculously self-centered idea then — and much more so today.

Now she’s accumulated some wealth and knowledge and plays for bigger stakes. Today she takes advantage of senior promotions, free cruises, VIP check-in, and sometimes participates in promotions where she has to play a certain amount to receive certain benefits — which her earlier words said were unfair promotions. If she’s invited to a VIP party she thinks looks interesting, do you really think she’s going to pass it up because other players weren’t invited? If you do, you have a much different opinion of her than I have.

Possibly she was desperate for a column and borrowed an old one without thinking it though. I truly understand sometimes having nothing to write about — and on occasion I have recycled some of my own. But I always try to proof them first and bring them up to date.

In this blog, Jean seemed to lose sight of the fact that casinos are in business to make money. Casino promotions are geared for the benefit of the casinos, not players. Jean seemed to think that casinos should make all promotions for the benefit of players — especially low limit players. Why on earth would casinos want to do that?

Although this was originally written maybe 20 years ago, quarter video poker players today are not particularly valuable to casinos. Casinos make more off of bigger players — and slot players — and so reward them accordingly. Many casinos today reward players based on Average Daily Theoretical — which means the amount a player can be expected to lose playing particular machines.

The ADT on quarter video poker machines is very small. I’m not putting down quarter players, and casinos put out machines for them. But quarter players shouldn’t expect the casino world to revolve around them. And this entire article was geared towards giving the quarter players the best chance to win. Of all the things casinos worry about, that’s pretty far down the list.

Players who want to advise casinos how to operate have to get out of their own narrow perceptions and try to see what motivates casinos. If a player can’t do that, he/she should know the proffered advice is going to be laughed at ignored.

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What Are You Trying to Get?

My niece Jessica, in her late 20s, recently married Blake. They live in Southern California. I asked them beforehand to choose their wedding present from me — either a check or a Vegas weekend. They chose the latter and then asked if it could include some video poker lessons. Sure, no problem.

In mid-August they came to town. I got them a nice hotel room, Penn and Teller tickets, and Bonnie and I took them out to a nice dinner. And, of course, a video poker lesson.

Jessica is NOT a gambler at all, but her new husband has been to Vegas a lot. Jessica wanted a game where she could have fun gambling and not lose more than $5 or $10 an hour. I got them a room at the Palms, where they have three machines that include penny Fifty Play 9/6 Jacks or Better. So long as she played five hands or fewer at a time, it would basically be impossible for her to out-lose her budget.

I used my normal class notes. I was unsure whether they’d be appropriate. Jessica has an engineering degree from an Ivy League school and my beginner Jacks or Better class is geared for people with average IQs. I don’t’ know Blake’s academic background, but I’ve known him for a couple of years and he’s pretty bright.

My classes are typically interactive with me asking questions to all of the students. So I went to their hotel suite, sat between them, and used the PowerPoint presentation on my laptop. I quickly concluded that asking Jessica most of the questions made more sense than switching back and forth, simply because the concepts were foreign to her and Blake was way ahead of her as a player.

One of the problem hands was A♠ K♠ 3♦ 4♦ 5♦ and I asked Jessica whether she should hold the black cards or the red cards? The way the class is set up, the diamonds are included in Rule 8 (3-card straight flush that is either consecutive or contains two high cards) and the spades are included in Rule 9 (two suited high cards). The ground rules of the class say you pick the rule that comes first, so in this case you hold the diamonds. (Note: this was a beginner’s class. Intermediate and Advanced classes have different rules.)

Jessica understood that I wanted her to pick the earlier rule, but then she asked, “What are you trying to get when you hold the diamonds?”

I thought I’d heard every beginner’s question fifty times, but this was a new one — and I’m not sure I gave her an answer that made her happy.

I clicked over to the Video Poker for Winners software and called up this hand by going to ANALYZE àSELECT SPECIFIC CARDS. I entered these five cards and then clicked on ANALYZE THIS HAND. I then clicked on SHOW DETAILS.

On the spreadsheet that showed up, the software said there were 1,081 different combinations of cards you could draw to 3♦ 4♦ 5♦. Of those 1,081 combinations, 941 of them give you no winning score at all, 18 of them give you Jacks or Better (paying 5 coins), 27 of them give you two pair (paying 10), 9 times you get 3-of-a-kind (paying 15), 41 times you get a straight (paying 20), 42 times you get a flush (paying 30), and 3 times you get a straight flush (paying 250). From that starting position, it’s impossible to get a full house, 4-of-a-kind, or royal flush.

To get the Expected Value of holding that combination, you take a weighted average of all those. That is, (5*18 + 10*27 + 15*9 + 20*41 + 42*30 + 3*250)/1081. If it’s been awhile since you studied math, you do all of the multiplication first — and then do the addition — and then the division. If the parentheses weren’t there, it would be a different order. The answer comes out to be 3.0759 (listed in the leftmost column on the spreadsheet), which means on average this hand is worth that many coins. Most players don’t want to do this math at all, which is okay so long as you have the appropriate software available. But you should probably at least know how the numbers are calculated.

I’d LIKE to get a straight flush when I hold 3♦ 4♦ 5♦, simply because that’s the highest-paying end result of what’s possible, but I can’t really say I’m TRYING for it. I’m looking for the combination of cards to hold with the highest EV — which is NOT necessarily the one with the biggest possible prize.

When holding A♠ K♠, there are now 16,215 combinations and the software gives the number of combinations hitting each category — the highest of which is a royal flush for 4,000 coins. But the average is “only” 2.9402 coins. Whether that’s high or low is only relevant in comparison to the EV of other possibilities in the hand. Since 3.0759 is higher than 2.9402, we hold the diamonds. Had the diamonds been 3♦ 4♦ 6♦ instead, with an EV of 2.6688, we would have held the spades.

My answer of “I’m not really trying for anything” didn’t particularly satisfy her the first time she heard it, but if she reads the Winner’s Guide and practices on the software (wedding presents, of course), I’m sure she’ll catch on if she wants to. (I suspect she won’t want to — I couldn’t even talk them into getting and using a player’s card!)

Still, I’m glad she asked the question. I don’t think I’ve heard it before — and now I have a good answer if I hear it again.

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How Much Do You Steal from Casinos?

I sometimes post on the forum at wizardofvegas.com. It’s hosted by Michael Shackleford, the “Wizard of Odds,” who’s a long time friend and former radio show co-host.

Recently someone there started a thread, “Have you ever stolen from your employer?” They included a poll and, early on as I write this, half (3 out of 6) of the responders say they have never stolen from their employers. With a sample size of six, no conclusions can be made. But as the sample size increases, surely the number of people admitting to theft from their employers will increase.

In Dan Ariely’s “The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone — Especially Ourselves,” he makes the case that most people sometimes steal at least minor amounts of stuff. While not all of us are employed, we all frequent casinos (or you’re wasting your time reading my columns). So I thought I’d change the topic to how often we steal from these places.

Defining what is actually stealing isn’t easy — even if we use Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s (used in a significantly different context), “I know it when I see it.” Let’s look at things that may or may not qualify:

  1. Getting a comped room/show/meal and selling it to somebody else. The fact that it is comped means the casino knows it is giving it away and is fine with that. Casinos have policies against selling comps, but that doesn’t make it illegal or immoral. If you give the room/show/meal away to a friend or relative and don’t charge him for it, does that change the “theft or not?” discussion in your mind? What if you were upfront with your host and said your niece was coming and you needed a room for her? To me, this latter situation (which I’ve done recently) is perfectly okay. I’m not sure where the dividing line is, though.
  2. Loading up on toiletries, toilet paper, etc., from your hotel room and taking it home with you. If you’re fine with this, how about extending it to towels? Or bedsheets? Where do you draw the line?
  3. You’re playing blackjack betting two reds (total $10) next to another player betting two greens (total $50) on a stupid 6-5 game. Officially it’s a $25 minimum table but you were grandfathered in because previously it was a $10 table and you can play the lower stakes until you leave. You both get blackjacks and the dealer pays you both $60. Do you immediately speak up and say, “No. You should have only paid me $12?” I wouldn’t speak up (not that I play blackjack anymore — and certainly not on a 6-5 game), but some players would.
  4. You cash in chips at the cage for $175, but somehow the cashier miscounts your chips and gives you $200 instead. Do you return the excess $25? I would, but some players wouldn’t.
  5. Morally, it’s tough to distinguish between the two previous cases. The rule I use (as do many other players) is that if a casino worker will personally be responsible for making up the shortfall, I give the money back. Taking money from somebody who is working for wages is just plain wrong in my opinion. If it will just go into the pot as a casino loss, as in the overpayment on the blackjack table, I’ll keep quiet. I am in the casino to make money after all. But just because I have a rule of thumb to guide my actions doesn’t mean that it’s any the less theft.
  6. I’m married to Bonnie, but used to be married to a woman named Shirley. Let’s say I still have some of Shirley’s old slot club cards and I still use the same mailing address as when I was with her. If Shirley got a “come on back and we’ll give you $200 in free play” offer in the mail and I came in and played off that money, how wrong would that be? For me personally, it isn’t going to happen. I am too well known. Even casinos that allow me to play have some reservations about it, so I’m not going to do anything that could backfire on me. What’s right or wrong shouldn’t depend on the consequences if you’re caught. But it’s probably a factor to most people. Decades ago if this happened, I probably would have gone in and picked up the free play without any qualms whatsoever.
  7. Playing on a spouse’s slot club card is allowed at some places and not at others. Where it’s allowed, I take advantage of it and play on Bonnie’s card. There are players with players’ cards in 50-100 different names. To me this is clearly wrong, but I can see the argument that it’s just a matter of degree.
  8. Is that morally different from entering free football contests (where you need to pick who is going to win) in LOTS of different names and coordinating the picks to eliminate duplicate entries?
  9. I know a guy who found a wallet in the casino. He turned it in to security almost immediately. But since he REALLY had to go to the bathroom at just that moment, he took the wallet with him inside a stall. What he did with the wallet inside that stall, we’ll never know for sure. Makes you wonder, though.
  10. Dealers are sometimes sloppy and expose their hole cards. There are players who specialize in seeking out such dealers and using that information to beat the house. Legally, thanks to the Einbinder case, these players are on solid ground (in Nevada anyway — maybe not so much at Indian casinos). Does the fact that it’s legal have any bearing on whether it’s moral? If players discovered that performing a particular action (perhaps tipping) made the dealers even more readable, is that unspoken collusion a type of stealing?
  11. You’re playing blackjack at casinos that will award you airfare if you lose enough money. You have perfected rat holing, meaning hiding chips on your person surreptitiously so the chips in front of you are a lot less than what you actually have. The pit boss writes down that you lost $6,000 when you actually came out ahead. You do this at six casinos during the trip and turn in printed receipts for the same flight all six times. You even went further. You ordered the tickets at full price — printed off multiple copies of the tickets — and then cancelled those tickets and booked the same flight at half the amount. You got the larger amount reimbursed six times for imaginary losses. Was the line between being clever and immoral ever crossed here? At what point? There will be some who say that’s just business as usual — and others will say the line was not only crossed, it was obliterated.

I could go on, but that’s enough for today. Most of us, myself included, consider ourselves to be moral, law-abiding people. And we all do things from time to time that are difficult or impossible to explain to somebody who takes an opposing point of view. And if somebody disagrees with you, they often take a “holier-than-thou” attitude about it.

I do the best I can and suggest you do the same.

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D T B

Bonnie’s family accepts that I’m a successful gambler. They also believe that the methods and discipline I use to succeed involve far more study than they want to invest — especially since it will never be more than an occasional hobby for any of them. Continue reading D T B