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What Are You Trying to Get?

My niece Jessica, in her late 20s, recently married Blake. They live in Southern California. I asked them beforehand to choose their wedding present from me — either a check or a Vegas weekend. They chose the latter and then asked if it could include some video poker lessons. Sure, no problem.

In mid-August they came to town. I got them a nice hotel room, Penn and Teller tickets, and Bonnie and I took them out to a nice dinner. And, of course, a video poker lesson.

Jessica is NOT a gambler at all, but her new husband has been to Vegas a lot. Jessica wanted a game where she could have fun gambling and not lose more than $5 or $10 an hour. I got them a room at the Palms, where they have three machines that include penny Fifty Play 9/6 Jacks or Better. So long as she played five hands or fewer at a time, it would basically be impossible for her to out-lose her budget.

I used my normal class notes. I was unsure whether they’d be appropriate. Jessica has an engineering degree from an Ivy League school and my beginner Jacks or Better class is geared for people with average IQs. I don’t’ know Blake’s academic background, but I’ve known him for a couple of years and he’s pretty bright.

My classes are typically interactive with me asking questions to all of the students. So I went to their hotel suite, sat between them, and used the PowerPoint presentation on my laptop. I quickly concluded that asking Jessica most of the questions made more sense than switching back and forth, simply because the concepts were foreign to her and Blake was way ahead of her as a player.

One of the problem hands was A♠ K♠ 3♦ 4♦ 5♦ and I asked Jessica whether she should hold the black cards or the red cards? The way the class is set up, the diamonds are included in Rule 8 (3-card straight flush that is either consecutive or contains two high cards) and the spades are included in Rule 9 (two suited high cards). The ground rules of the class say you pick the rule that comes first, so in this case you hold the diamonds. (Note: this was a beginner’s class. Intermediate and Advanced classes have different rules.)

Jessica understood that I wanted her to pick the earlier rule, but then she asked, “What are you trying to get when you hold the diamonds?”

I thought I’d heard every beginner’s question fifty times, but this was a new one — and I’m not sure I gave her an answer that made her happy.

I clicked over to the Video Poker for Winners software and called up this hand by going to ANALYZE àSELECT SPECIFIC CARDS. I entered these five cards and then clicked on ANALYZE THIS HAND. I then clicked on SHOW DETAILS.

On the spreadsheet that showed up, the software said there were 1,081 different combinations of cards you could draw to 3♦ 4♦ 5♦. Of those 1,081 combinations, 941 of them give you no winning score at all, 18 of them give you Jacks or Better (paying 5 coins), 27 of them give you two pair (paying 10), 9 times you get 3-of-a-kind (paying 15), 41 times you get a straight (paying 20), 42 times you get a flush (paying 30), and 3 times you get a straight flush (paying 250). From that starting position, it’s impossible to get a full house, 4-of-a-kind, or royal flush.

To get the Expected Value of holding that combination, you take a weighted average of all those. That is, (5*18 + 10*27 + 15*9 + 20*41 + 42*30 + 3*250)/1081. If it’s been awhile since you studied math, you do all of the multiplication first — and then do the addition — and then the division. If the parentheses weren’t there, it would be a different order. The answer comes out to be 3.0759 (listed in the leftmost column on the spreadsheet), which means on average this hand is worth that many coins. Most players don’t want to do this math at all, which is okay so long as you have the appropriate software available. But you should probably at least know how the numbers are calculated.

I’d LIKE to get a straight flush when I hold 3♦ 4♦ 5♦, simply because that’s the highest-paying end result of what’s possible, but I can’t really say I’m TRYING for it. I’m looking for the combination of cards to hold with the highest EV — which is NOT necessarily the one with the biggest possible prize.

When holding A♠ K♠, there are now 16,215 combinations and the software gives the number of combinations hitting each category — the highest of which is a royal flush for 4,000 coins. But the average is “only” 2.9402 coins. Whether that’s high or low is only relevant in comparison to the EV of other possibilities in the hand. Since 3.0759 is higher than 2.9402, we hold the diamonds. Had the diamonds been 3♦ 4♦ 6♦ instead, with an EV of 2.6688, we would have held the spades.

My answer of “I’m not really trying for anything” didn’t particularly satisfy her the first time she heard it, but if she reads the Winner’s Guide and practices on the software (wedding presents, of course), I’m sure she’ll catch on if she wants to. (I suspect she won’t want to — I couldn’t even talk them into getting and using a player’s card!)

Still, I’m glad she asked the question. I don’t think I’ve heard it before — and now I have a good answer if I hear it again.

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How Much Do You Steal from Casinos?

I sometimes post on the forum at wizardofvegas.com. It’s hosted by Michael Shackleford, the “Wizard of Odds,” who’s a long time friend and former radio show co-host.

Recently someone there started a thread, “Have you ever stolen from your employer?” They included a poll and, early on as I write this, half (3 out of 6) of the responders say they have never stolen from their employers. With a sample size of six, no conclusions can be made. But as the sample size increases, surely the number of people admitting to theft from their employers will increase.

In Dan Ariely’s “The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone — Especially Ourselves,” he makes the case that most people sometimes steal at least minor amounts of stuff. While not all of us are employed, we all frequent casinos (or you’re wasting your time reading my columns). So I thought I’d change the topic to how often we steal from these places.

Defining what is actually stealing isn’t easy — even if we use Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s (used in a significantly different context), “I know it when I see it.” Let’s look at things that may or may not qualify:

  1. Getting a comped room/show/meal and selling it to somebody else. The fact that it is comped means the casino knows it is giving it away and is fine with that. Casinos have policies against selling comps, but that doesn’t make it illegal or immoral. If you give the room/show/meal away to a friend or relative and don’t charge him for it, does that change the “theft or not?” discussion in your mind? What if you were upfront with your host and said your niece was coming and you needed a room for her? To me, this latter situation (which I’ve done recently) is perfectly okay. I’m not sure where the dividing line is, though.
  2. Loading up on toiletries, toilet paper, etc., from your hotel room and taking it home with you. If you’re fine with this, how about extending it to towels? Or bedsheets? Where do you draw the line?
  3. You’re playing blackjack betting two reds (total $10) next to another player betting two greens (total $50) on a stupid 6-5 game. Officially it’s a $25 minimum table but you were grandfathered in because previously it was a $10 table and you can play the lower stakes until you leave. You both get blackjacks and the dealer pays you both $60. Do you immediately speak up and say, “No. You should have only paid me $12?” I wouldn’t speak up (not that I play blackjack anymore — and certainly not on a 6-5 game), but some players would.
  4. You cash in chips at the cage for $175, but somehow the cashier miscounts your chips and gives you $200 instead. Do you return the excess $25? I would, but some players wouldn’t.
  5. Morally, it’s tough to distinguish between the two previous cases. The rule I use (as do many other players) is that if a casino worker will personally be responsible for making up the shortfall, I give the money back. Taking money from somebody who is working for wages is just plain wrong in my opinion. If it will just go into the pot as a casino loss, as in the overpayment on the blackjack table, I’ll keep quiet. I am in the casino to make money after all. But just because I have a rule of thumb to guide my actions doesn’t mean that it’s any the less theft.
  6. I’m married to Bonnie, but used to be married to a woman named Shirley. Let’s say I still have some of Shirley’s old slot club cards and I still use the same mailing address as when I was with her. If Shirley got a “come on back and we’ll give you $200 in free play” offer in the mail and I came in and played off that money, how wrong would that be? For me personally, it isn’t going to happen. I am too well known. Even casinos that allow me to play have some reservations about it, so I’m not going to do anything that could backfire on me. What’s right or wrong shouldn’t depend on the consequences if you’re caught. But it’s probably a factor to most people. Decades ago if this happened, I probably would have gone in and picked up the free play without any qualms whatsoever.
  7. Playing on a spouse’s slot club card is allowed at some places and not at others. Where it’s allowed, I take advantage of it and play on Bonnie’s card. There are players with players’ cards in 50-100 different names. To me this is clearly wrong, but I can see the argument that it’s just a matter of degree.
  8. Is that morally different from entering free football contests (where you need to pick who is going to win) in LOTS of different names and coordinating the picks to eliminate duplicate entries?
  9. I know a guy who found a wallet in the casino. He turned it in to security almost immediately. But since he REALLY had to go to the bathroom at just that moment, he took the wallet with him inside a stall. What he did with the wallet inside that stall, we’ll never know for sure. Makes you wonder, though.
  10. Dealers are sometimes sloppy and expose their hole cards. There are players who specialize in seeking out such dealers and using that information to beat the house. Legally, thanks to the Einbinder case, these players are on solid ground (in Nevada anyway — maybe not so much at Indian casinos). Does the fact that it’s legal have any bearing on whether it’s moral? If players discovered that performing a particular action (perhaps tipping) made the dealers even more readable, is that unspoken collusion a type of stealing?
  11. You’re playing blackjack at casinos that will award you airfare if you lose enough money. You have perfected rat holing, meaning hiding chips on your person surreptitiously so the chips in front of you are a lot less than what you actually have. The pit boss writes down that you lost $6,000 when you actually came out ahead. You do this at six casinos during the trip and turn in printed receipts for the same flight all six times. You even went further. You ordered the tickets at full price — printed off multiple copies of the tickets — and then cancelled those tickets and booked the same flight at half the amount. You got the larger amount reimbursed six times for imaginary losses. Was the line between being clever and immoral ever crossed here? At what point? There will be some who say that’s just business as usual — and others will say the line was not only crossed, it was obliterated.

I could go on, but that’s enough for today. Most of us, myself included, consider ourselves to be moral, law-abiding people. And we all do things from time to time that are difficult or impossible to explain to somebody who takes an opposing point of view. And if somebody disagrees with you, they often take a “holier-than-thou” attitude about it.

I do the best I can and suggest you do the same.

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D T B

Bonnie’s family accepts that I’m a successful gambler. They also believe that the methods and discipline I use to succeed involve far more study than they want to invest — especially since it will never be more than an occasional hobby for any of them. Continue reading D T B

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Lessons from Chip Reese

I was reading Mike Sexton’s new book, Life’s a Gamble, in preparation for interviewing Sexton on the radio. The Sexton interview will be taped before you read this and will be posted here (that link is to the filtered podcast archives) on Thursday, July 28. The book is autobiographical, with lots of anecdotes about Sexton himself and various other players. I already knew many of the stories (I read a LOT about gambling and have interviewed many players over the years), but many more were new to me. All in all, it’s a good read and of interest to any gambler, not just poker players. Continue reading Lessons from Chip Reese

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You Have to Work it Out Yourself

I get dozens of video poker emails a month from people I’ve never met. Often the emails are similar to the following:

“I play Double Double Bonus. From a hand like KK773, I hold the kings and a friend tells me to hold two pair. Which is right?”

I typically answer that it’s correct to hold two pair — and the answer would be easy to obtain using video poker software or by consulting a strategy card or Winner’s Guide. If they wish to get better at video poker, they need to be able to check these things out themselves. Continue reading You Have to Work it Out Yourself

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Is it Guaranteed?

I recently published an article on quitting when you’re ahead which may be found here. The article referred to a particular $100,000 royal flush I hit at Dotty’s and why circumstances at that establishment led me to quit gambling there for a few months after the jackpot. Some of the follow-up comments about the article were, to me, very strange and irrelevant. I wouldn’t call them stupid questions. I would call the questioners uninformed. Continue reading Is it Guaranteed?

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Identifying a Pattern

I planned on playing for six hours at the Palms from shortly after midnight until about 6:00 a.m. on the early morning of Wednesday, April 27. It was a double point day— I also earned points for gift cards, a small amount of value for the weekly drawing, plus my play kept the mailers and other benefits coming. There were only two machines that I wanted to play, both containing $1 Ten Play Deuces Wild Ultimate X, and I expected other players to want the same machines on that day. So I went at hours when other players preferred to sleep. And this time, at least, one machine was available. Continue reading Identifying a Pattern

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Too Good to be True?

Casinos are in the business to make money. They don’t intentionally make mistakes. Still, sometimes mistakes happen that smart players can exploit. You don’t need to be a pro. You just have to be alert and savvy — and find one of these mistakes. It also helps if you have the requisite knowledge and bankroll — but that’s not necessary. If someone brought the following to me and nobody else knew about it, I might well have paid a $1,000 finder’s fee. Continue reading Too Good to be True?

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More Dogs Than Bones

The following story is fictional, but based on real events.

The Gold Mine in Las Vegas was one of many casinos where Jack played. There were two, and only two, “good” machines. These were $5 single line Bonus Deuces machines that returned 99.45%. With the slot club, mailers, and promotions, these machines were playable, in Jack’s opinion. Continue reading More Dogs Than Bones

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Recent Questions I Have Received

In the video poker world, I am somewhat of a public figure. Between the classes, articles, and radio show, lots of people ask me questions all the time. Some of them are in the “none of your damned business” category. And some aren’t. I thought I’d answer a few of them publicly that I haven’t addressed recently. Continue reading Recent Questions I Have Received