Category: Video Poker

I was canvassing a casino looking for slot machines in favorable conditions. From 15 feet away I saw a Wolf Run Eclipse for $15 per pull. The numbers on the meters were high enough according to my guru, but not high enough according to most other sources. This is a good situation for me because most other pros would let the machine be. You can bet there were other slot pros circulating the casino. It’s a fact of life in most casinos these days.

There was a guy I’d never seen before sitting there with exactly $100 in credits. He didn’t have a player’s card inserted. He wasn’t playing the machine, but rather was talking flirtatiously to a young woman seated nearby. 

I tried to read the situation. Had he been dressed like a homeless person I would have concluded that he was trying to “sell” the machine to anyone who asked about it. After all, homeless people don’t play for $15 a hand generally. But he was clean-shaven and dressed nicely. He didn’t look homeless.

The fact that he had exactly $100 in credits indicated to me he had just put in a hundred-dollar bill and hadn’t started to play yet. I didn’t know what to make of the fact that he didn’t have a player’s card inserted. There are a number of possible explanations for that.

For a $15 game, $100 in credits wasn’t much ammunition. I might put in $500 or more before I hit the button the first time. It’s easier for me to keep track of how much money I’ve played if I put in $500 increments. I need this information so I can calculate wins and losses. But not everybody loads a machine before they start to play. Some players put in one bill at a time and only put in another bill when the credits get below the value of one hand.

I didn’t see anybody else hovering around waiting for him to leave. Which was good. Either this “opportunity” hadn’t been noticed by other pros yet, or the ones who had noticed didn’t think it was a good opportunity.

I went to check some nearby machines and returned in five minutes. Nothing had changed. He still had $100 in credits and was enjoying talking to the lady. I left to check some other machines, returning in another five minutes, and, again, nothing had changed.

Right or wrong, I decided to politely ask him if he was planning on playing that machine. I figured that possibly my asking him might be an impetus for him to take the lady for dinner or drinks or something. Or if he wanted to sell it to me, perhaps by suggesting I put in all the money and we split the winnings, I could deal with that. As I’ve written earlier, when that happens, I have no problem reporting him to a slot attendant. Usually, the slot attendant will tell him to either play the machine or get off of it. The fact that he had no players card in could indicate that he wasn’t planning on playing the machine anyway. My goal was to get the machine if it was going to become available soon — but not being rude about it.

 My hoped-for scenarios didn’t happen. He told me, also politely, that he was still planning on playing and the machine next to him was vacant. (Yes it was, but there was nothing playable on it.) I thanked him and moved on,

Twenty minutes later, I circled back, and the machine was vacant. I checked it and one of the minor meter (the one that was most attractive this time) was at reset — meaning that this guy, or somebody else, had played the game until it was no longer positive. Oh well, he found it first. I’ll find another game.

I’ve shared this story with a few of my pro friends. Some would have done the same. Some would have sat down at a nearby machine and just waited until the situation resolved itself. Some would have just walked on and never said a word to the guy. With this diversity of opinions, I’ve concluded that there is not a unique “correct” way to handle the situation — and my way was within acceptable limits.

What do you think?

In late February, I posted a blog about leaving a machine after hitting a jackpot. My opinion was that, unless the jackpot you hit was a progressive that changed the nature of whether the game was playable or not, I keep playing.

Most responders to the blog agreed with me, but David Miller posted the following: It has been my personal observation that when I hit a large jackpot and continued to play the same machine, I have never increased my winnings by this continuation of play. After 35+ years of playing video poker I can only think of two occasions of observing (and my own play) where another jackpot of any large amount occurred when one continued to play the same machine. My advice: Thank the Lord and take the money and run.

While I thank David for his response, I’m trying to figure out how such an experienced player came up with a conclusion so opposite my own.

David’s term “large jackpot” is somewhat vague. I’m going to arbitrarily define it as 800 coins or larger on a five-coin bet. This would include royals, four aces on many games, four 2s, 3s, and 4s with a kicker on many games, and four deuces on deuces wild games. With that definition, I’ve increased my score after hitting such a jackpot more than 500 times. And many times, I’ve witnessed players sitting near me hit multiple jackpots on the same machine. How can David have so few?

While “David” is a common name and I’ve met many Davids without always knowing a last name, I’m assuming I’ve never met him and I’m also assuming his post is on the level and he believes what he said. So, what I’m saying about him here is speculation. Here are the explanations I’ve come up with:

1. He may have been thinking of royal flushes only when he said “large jackpot.” There are many fewer data points if you’re only thinking of those jackpots rather than the 800 coins or higher definition I chose. Hitting two royals in the same day is a pretty rare event. While I’ve done it, (more likely of course on multi-line games than single line games), I’ve played a lot more video poker than most others have.

2. While 35+ years is longer than I’ve been playing, perhaps he doesn’t play very much each year. He could have played one weekend every three years, with three or four hours of video poker play per weekend visit. I’ve probably averaged more than 1,500 hours of play a year for the last 31 years. Even though his 35+ years is greater than my 31, if this supposition is true, I’ve played a lot more than he has.

3. Possibly David doesn’t remember clearly. I don’t know his age or how good his memory is. Having played 35 years, he must be at least eligible for senior discounts.

4. When David says something “never” happens, perhaps he isn’t speaking precisely. To me, “never” means never. Maybe to him, he means “rarely” rather than never.

5. There’s a difference in how professional and recreational players play. When a professional player finds a good play, he can play on the same machine for hours — frequently accompanied by other strong players playing for hours. As a group, there will be jackpots numerous times over the course of a 35+ year career. Even if hitting a jackpot represents the “high water mark of the day” 80% of the time, the other 20% of the time scores will get bigger. Over the course of a long career, 20% of a large number of occurrences is a sizeable number.

6. The explanation for David’s comments that I believe the most likely, stems from his behavior. Perhaps he changes machines immediately after he hits a jackpot. Since he believes he’s not going to increase his score if he continues to play on the same machine, changing machines for him seems like a smart strategy. If this is the strategy he uses, it’s no wonder he has never increased his score on the same machine after a jackpot simply because he never plays on the same machine after hitting a jackpot.

While I don’t believe in the value of changing machines, it’s not always possible for me anyway. Often the machine I want to play is either a one-of-a-kind or one-of-very-few. If I insist on leaving every time I get a jackpot, there may well not be one of similar EV available. 

If my final guess is the correct one, while David’s statement is true, it isn’t at all relevant to those players who stay on the same machine.

If David wants to respond to my comments here, he’s welcome to do so.

Someone told me about a casino, but swore me to secrecy about writing its name, or even the state it is in. If too many strong players knew the details about this casino, the casino couldn’t afford to continue the excellent benefits it now provides — which ruins the play for all players. But I can describe those benefits.

These benefits are for “semi” high rollers — that is, it requires $40,000 coin-in monthly if you’re a slot player, or $80,000 coin-in a month if you’re a video poker player. While these amounts aren’t for everybody, there’s a significant number of players who could play that much if they were profitably motivated. 

For the video poker players, the best game is NSU Deuces Wild. In addition to a 0.05% slot club, along with reasonable comps, if you play the $80,000 coin-in a month you receive $100 in free play, twice a month. This is a slightly positive game — not worth travel expenses unless you lived in that city or had another really good play close by so you could “double dip” when you visited that city. Most players will play lesser games than NSU, and play them badly, so the casino makes out okay even with this promotion.

Slot players, however, receive $1,000 in free play, twice a month, along with a 0.1% slot club and reasonable comps. This is more than a 5% return.

If you know nothing about playing slots with an advantage, this is not a good deal. The slots at this casino return about 91% on average. Playing games with an expected 9% loss to receive 5% in benefits isn’t a winning play.

But what if you knew something about slot machines?

I’m going to describe a hypothetical “Orange Bob” machine. This machine has mini, minor, and major meters that each reset to five spins — and then they rise when you get particular combinations. When the meters are at five, five, and five, the game returns 75%. Nobody with a clue would play it at that level — but there are many clueless players at this and other casinos. 

Whenever the mini, minor, and major meters increase by one unit, the return on the game increases 0.5%, 1%, and 1.5%, respectively. If you come across a game where the meters are at 10, 10, and 10, the worth of the game would be the 75% it started at, an extra 5% because of the rise in the mini, an extra 10% because of the rise in the minor, and an extra 15% because of the rise in the major. This turns it into a game that returns 105% and is well worth playing — especially since if you start playing now, the meters will continue to rise until you hit one or more of them. 

Also, assume that while the exact numbers I cited in the previous paragraph are only known to a few players, there are a lot of players with a general idea. These players have their own “strike points,” when they estimate a game is positive. These players search the casino for such opportunities — so a lot of the time you find a good situation when somebody has just given up on playing a game when it’s positive.

It could be that this player who leaves the machine in a good situation has no idea of what makes the game positive. It could be that this player ran out of money. It could be that this player had to catch a plane and could no longer stick around until the relevant meters went back to reset values.

The game can be played for five different denominations, with five different “number of coins” for each of these denominations. The range is from a $1 total bet to $50. 

Players seeking to play $40,000 coin-in per month will avoid the lower denomination/coins combinations, simply because each time you find the play you might get anywhere from 10 to 500 spins. You won’t find playable situations very often, and if you’re only playing $1 or $2 per spin, you’re not going to come close to reaching your $40,000 coin-in goal.

There are numerous games similar to these Orange Bob games, and if you know about enough of them, you can do all right.

The interesting part about this, that I never considered while playing video poker, is that you can play “on the come.” 

Normally, without the free play, you would wait until the machines (with expected meter rise before you hit it) were higher than 100% before you started to play — assuming you were attempting to play these machines at a profit.

With 5% in benefits, however, you can start to play when the machines (with expected meter rise before you hit it) are at 97% or so. Yes, you’re giving up 3% to the casino, but the casino is giving you 5% to do so. So, it’s not a bad deal.

If you’re looking for 97% or higher games, and most of your competition is looking for 100% or higher games, you’re going to find a lot of opportunities to play. Even with everyone and his brother checking the machines all day long, you’ll find plays because you’re willing to play at lower starting numbers than most of the others do.

I find this an interesting concept.