This column was inspired by the following article: fivethirtyeight.com, although the author of that article shouldn’t be blamed for the direction it inspired me to take.
The fivetirtyeight.com website, one of my favorites, takes a mathematical and statistical approach to analyzing a number of different types of situations. The particular article cited above looked at the case of a child having a seizure 5 minutes before he was supposed to receive an unrelated vaccination from his doctor. The parents in this type of case typically do not see any correlation between the impending vaccination and the seizure. If, however, the child had the seizure 10 minutes later—immediately following the vaccination—many parents would erroneously conclude that the vaccination caused the seizure simply because the injection came first. Continue reading False Conclusions
