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Massachusetts gaming a success; Cuomo gains upper hand in NY

A University of Massachusetts Amherst panel led by respected academic Rachel Volberg has been studying casino gambling in Massachusetts and likes most of what it finds. It concluded that Bay State dollars had been significantly repatriated from neighboring states (the primary goal of legalization) and there was “no negative impact” on the state lottery. Citizens were fleeing the state in smaller numbers, going from 33% of cross-border business in 2013-4 to 16% in 2019. Bay Staters who were gamblers went up by 14% in the same period. 70% of study participants identified themselves as regular gamblers, while 3.5% admitted to being problem gamblers, with another 12.5% identified as at-risk. A fifth of them devolved into problem gambling while most pulled back into recreational gambling. Heavy ad blitzes “precipitated relapse. We can’t prove that but it’s very tantalizing,” said investigator Robert Williams. He added that “there is no ‘silver bullet’ to prevent problem gambling. Rather, a wide array of educational and policy initiatives is needed to address the multifaceted biopsychosocial” causes.

Low-income men were the likeliest to develop disordered-gambling habits, with substance abuse and mental ill-health cited as co-presenting morbidities. “Each problem gambler has a unique array of risk factors,” Williams said. “You need to tackle problem gambling from a multidirectional way as well.” Paradoxically, 9% of self-identified problem gamblers denied anything was wrong. The UMass teams recommendations include a cap on casino advertising, more education on problem gambling and active encouragement of disordered gamblers to seek treatment. Concluded Massachusetts Gaming Commission Chairwoman Cathy Judd-Stein, “There has been no other longitudinal study of gambling behavior of this scale in the United States. It shapes our understanding of gambling behavior in Massachusetts and contributes to the few comparable studies worldwide.” Agreed. Let’s hope it’s the start of a trend. Your turn, Nevada.

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Caesars Saints?; Mattress Mack returns

Don’t like the misshapen circles which now represent Caesars Entertainment? Well, get used to them, especially if you’re a New Orleans Saints fan. The casino giant is dickering with the Mercedes-Benz Superdome for naming rights, although Saints and New Orleans Pelicans Senior Vice President of Communications Greg Bensel grumps that “there is not a signed deal with any company at this time. We continue to have conversations with numerous interested companies.” Yes, but how many of them are as heavily invested in the New Orleans area as Caesars? Its Kate Whiteley demurred that “we have nothing to share beyond our current, valuable relationship with the teams.” There’s also the question of throwing tens of millions (at least $60 million) at naming rights at a time when Caesars casinos are snowballing a reputation as outdated, unkempt properties … something that company itself has obliquely acknowledged. (Former CEO Gary Loveman ran the company into the ground and successor Mark Frissora was mainly tasked with rearranging debt, er, deck chairs on this particular Titanic.)

At present, Harrah’s New Orleans is the subject of a $400 million renovation and expansion, which will culminate in its renaming as Caesars New Orleans. One thing that we like about CEO Tom Reeg is that, unlike Loveman, he’s not shy about deploying the prestigious Caesars brand name, previously reserved for really important destinations like … Windsor, Ontario. The Superdome would be the fourth, casino-affiliated stadium in major league sports, joining Gila River Arena (hockey’s Arizona Coyotes), Mohegan Sun Arena (home of the WNBA‘s Connecticut Sun) and Hard Rock Stadium, venue of the Miami Dolphins. The makeshift home of the Las Vegas AcesMandalay Bay Event Center—doesn’t count. While it might not be the highest and best use of CZR bucks, we see no reason not to have a Caesars Superdome, do you?

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A Very Different Approach

On February 23, my blog addressed the subject of quitting while you’re ahead and other similar strategies that do absolutely nothing to the expected return of a game. I received a number of comments to that blog, including the one I’m going to share with you today: 

“I stop when I’ve won a decent jackpot, usually a four-of-a-kind that kicks out $200 or more. I’m good with winning a $200 hand. $200 will buy a nice evening out with my wife, so really, we both win.”

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Circa picketed; Sundry green shoots in Vegas; Sports book busted

If you cruise by Circa, you’re liable to see members of Teamsters Local 986 walking a picket line on behalf of the ‘Circa Seven,’ a group of unfortunate warehouse workers. The seven were employed by Derek StevensThree Corners company, which services Circa. What caused the Circa Seven to get the axe? According to the Teamsters, it discovered they were pursuing union membership and gave them the chop. “The Circa Seven came to work, informed that their jobs were ‘outsourced’ to [subcontractor] QLI and then fired without warning,” claims Local 986 Secretary-Treasurer Chris Griswold. “It is heartless of this company to displace its own workers during the worst health crisis in a century.” If you agree with the Teamsters, you can make your feelings known online. If you side with Stevens, you of course don’t need to do anything … except maybe cross a picket line.

Room rates on the Las Vegas Strip were tanking this time last year, so maybe improvement is in eye of the beholder but they continue to trend upward. For April 18-24 they’re 28% higher, averaging $129/night, including an encouraging 2% improvement in weekday rates (weekends are up an eye-popping 73%). Mind you, at that time last year the averages were -33% midweek, -56% weekend and -44% overall. Caesars Entertainment is seeing a 23% midweek climb and a 106% improvement on the weekend. Venelazzo leapt 185% weekends and 50% weekdays. Convention-dependent MGM Resorts International saw only a 1% midweek nudge, plus a 70% weekend uptick, while Wynncore tumbled 26% midweek, even on such an easy comparison, and bumped up just 12% on the weekend. Was it too soon for Encore to reopen?

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Coronavirus V: The Blackjack Call

The Blackjack Ball, an annual get-together of professional gamblers, was historically hosted by Max Rubin over New Year’s, when the big card-counting teams would create their own fireworks all over Vegas. It was great fun while it lasted. But New Year’s became a victim of its own success. Vegas is so crowded on holiday weekends that getting a room, a parking spot, or a seat at a blackjack table is almost impossible, and certainly more trouble than it’s worth. And, the big-team model went extinct. The Uston team is no more (though some of its original players are still out there). The Czech team isn’t even a distant memory. The MIT team lives on only in the movies. Do any of the Greeks even play anymore? Hyland’s old gang is mostly doing other stuff. The Holy Rollers are now a decentralized swarm of counting zombies.

With no more counting teams to accommodate, The Blackjack Ball these days is scheduled to avoid the chaos of New Year’s. But the pandemic brought a whole new type of chaos. While the casinos probably would have loved to see a hundred of the world’s top APs (who are mostly 50+ years old) wiped out by a single superspreader event, it was not in the cards for 2021.

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Strip sux but locals steadfast; Virgin LV loses its virginity

Things simply have to get better on the Las Vegas Strip. Not even a Feb. 15 capacity increase saved some casinos from perdition. Let’s hope February represented a bottoming-out of gaming revenues, as tourists starting flocking back this month. Strip gaming win was down a precipitous 41.5% to $348.5 million, led by slot winnings that were 34% down (to $189 million) on 27% less coin-in. Baccarat continues to be a black hole into which casinos plunged 58% on 58.5% less wagering. Players dropped 36% less on the green felt at non-baccarat table games but revenues suffered 43%, as punters bet less and won more. The Strip’s woes can be explained by a 54% falloff in visitation. 1.6 million arriving and departed airline passengers represented a 58% decline, including a measly 8,033 international travelers. Conversely, auto traffic was actually up at the California border by 1.5%. Hotel occupancy was a woeful 42%, depressing revenue per available room by 65% and room rates 26.5% (to $104/night). With no measurable convention business, midweek occupancy was 32% compared to 63% on weekends.

Las Vegas locals casinos were the bright spot, flat at $186 million, quite an accomplishment in a depleted Silver State economy. (Fortunately, employment numbers have been trending positively.) Tighter slots meant only 1% less win despite 6% lower coin-in. Perhaps the infusion of Circa eased Downtown‘s pain. It was only off 7% ($51.5 million), while North Las Vegas slipped 12% ($19 million), the Boulder Strip dipped 2% ($64 million) and Laughlin tumbled 31% ($33 million). Miscellaneous Clark County casinos were up 3.5% ($103 million) and Mesquite climbed 5% ($13 million). Upstate, Reno slid 14% to $50 million but Lake Tahoe leapt 16% to $20.5 million. Utahns shunned Wendover, down 9.5% to $17.5 million.

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Demand, prices way up on the Strip; Big casino push in Texas

Emboldened by a combination of new, 50% capacity limits in Nevada and $1,400 stimulus checks, visitors poured into Las Vegas and resorts were quick to profiteer, er, monetize the nascent demand. The Strat more than tripled room rates, from $50/night to $179, this at a place that was just breaking even a few months ago. Paris-Las Vegas vaulted from $55/night to $284. The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas was even bolder, charging as much as $610 a night for a room. Prices were described as being “at pre-pandemic levels,” which is manna in the desert to hoteliers. Whether this bounce is sustainable—jobs, jobs, jobs—remains to be seen but if it is, it would mean a Vegas recovery much sooner than we (or the industry) expected. In this return to the Good Old Days, resorts reverted to some of their bad old ways: Bally’s was charging $13 for a bottle of Dos Equis. Really? If there’s one thing that can nip a recovery in the bud it’s price-gouging, although demand for Sin City could be so unabated that customers are willing to suffer anything for it.

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Quote of the Day

“Much of what takes place presently seems to be based between the two extremes of corporate image-cleansing and the glorification of victimhood. Moreover, the degree of virtue signaling at these extremes is neither constructive nor pretty to watch. This all needs to change to give the appearance that the problem gambling effort has adult supervision. In short, I think we all need to try harder.”—Richard Schuetz, on the dysfunction of anti-problem-gambling campaigns … and much else.

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Looking at a 50-coin Penalty for the Straight Flush in 10-6 Double Double Bonus

There is a version of 10-6 DDB that pays 200 for the straight flush rather than 250 and that change drops the return from 100.06% to 99.96%. Casinos which have a firm policy of never offering a game returning more than 100% sometimes have this game. I refer to the games as 10-6-50 and 10-6-40, where the 50 and 40 represent the one-coin return for the straight flush.

The strategy for the two games is very similar, of course, but not identical. If I had places where I could play both games, I’d likely use one strategy for both. But I don’t know of any casino with the 10-6-50 game where I want to and am welcome to play, so I concentrate on the 10-6-40 strategy. The Dancer/Daily Winner’s Guide for Double Double Bonus covers the 10-6-50 game completely. Today I’ll just discuss the differences between the two games. All money amounts assume you are playing for dollars, betting five coins at a time.

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Packer out, Blackstone in at Crown?

Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas owner Blackstone Group threw a lifeline to troubled Crown Resorts, in the form of a $6.2 billion buyout offer. The rope comes with a substantial string attached—Australian regulators must preserve the (sleazy) Crown casino licenses. Without them, Crown isn’t worth that much, it seems. Heck, it’s not worth that much now: Blackstone’s offer was for $9.15/share, which is 20% higher from the pittance where Crown is trading. The company has already lost its Sydney license, and its ones in Melbourne and Perth are under investigation. Blackstone is quite the high roller at the moment, having just plunked down $6 billion for Extended Stay America (in tandem with Starwood Capital Group). In the meantime, Blackstone may not find it so easy to just demand three Australian casino licenses, given the depths of the problems at Crown, which has been found to have facilitated money laundering, among other sins.

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