Tag: Bob Dancer

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This Game Tonight

Bob Dancer

The following incident happened while a friend of mine was playing slots, but there’s enough in common to gambling at video poker that I think it’s worth discussing.

“John” was scouting a casino in Las Vegas looking for slot machines in positive conditions. There are many, many slot machines that are sometimes positive — but most of the time, on each of these machines, the house has the advantage. Most players, however, are not aware of when the game is positive or not and simply play the game, quitting whenever they feel like it. Sometimes they quit when the game is positive, and then when the next knowledgeable player comes by, that player typically sits down to play it off. 

John has “strike numbers” on perhaps 20-30 different slot machine titles. That’s nowhere near all or even most of the beatable machines, but still, it’s more than most players know.

He found a game for $25 a play that he thought might be positive. This is a much larger game than usual for slot players. Most players can’t afford to play this game, but the size of the game was not a showstopper to him. He shifted the denomination on the machine so that it showed the $10-per-play game and consulted his notes. The $10-per-play game was nowhere near a positive play at the moment, and other pros seeking games would walk right by. He wanted time to think about this situation without drawing attention to the game.

His notes said that the game was a play when a certain meter was at 15 or higher — and sure enough this meter was at 16. So, it was a play. His notes also said the game is highly volatile. He knew that on a volatile $25 game, he could easily win or lose several thousand dollars. If he played this game in this situation several dozen times, he figured he’d make a sizeable profit. But there was no way to tell at the outset whether this time would be positive or negative.

He had $3,500 on him. He figured that would cover the swings most of the time. He wouldn’t likely run out of money, but if he did there were people he could call. He didn’t like making these calls — partly because that meant others would have the right to call him when they ran out. He trusted himself to run out of money very rarely, but some of the people he called wouldn’t have the same discipline. But if he asked for help, he had to be prepared to give help to others in the future. He didn’t want to open that door.

He actually called me to ask my opinion. John and I respect each other’s knowledge and have helped each other out occasionally. I know him well, know how he handles swings, and I thought he should go for it. I wasn’t in Vegas at the time, and he was, so there was no way I could get money to him if he ended up needing some.

He was just about to start when another pro, “Peter,” approached him and asked if he were going to play the $25 game. John knew Peter vaguely. He’d seen him checking out machines but wasn’t sure how knowledgeable he was.

John said yes. He thought it was a good play and he had the bankroll to play it. Peter said he had the bankroll too, but wasn’t in the mood to risk his daily score on such a volatile play.

Peter, it seems, had been losing recently and was sort of gun shy. He didn’t trust his own judgment, so he didn’t want to play such a big game. He could likely find a sizeable number of smaller games where he could increase his bankroll by dribs and drabs rather than making a big jump one way or the other all at once.

Peter said he had a few thousand dollars on him and suggested they partner up for this one game. John thought about this. It had some positive aspects to it. It essentially guaranteed he wouldn’t run out of money. 

At the same time, John had never done business with Peter before. Was he trustworthy? Who was going to eat the W-2G if there was one? Peter was friendly now, but what if Peter was the one playing when the bonus round hit and denied making a deal? So John passed and played it by himself. Peter wished him luck and left.

As it happened, the bonus round went off rather quickly and John ended up making $900. This was a nice result, but it certainly didn’t have to be that way.

I want to look at Peter’s reaction to this. Peter had actually seen the game first and passed on it. He had the financial bankroll — but not the emotional bankroll — to play the game. So, I believe he was right to pass.

Everybody has his own emotional bankroll. Respecting your bankroll parameters, both financial and emotional, is critical to long term success at gambling. I also think that Peter suggesting they be partners was a move that made sense for him. This would lower the swings and lower the risk. So now it might have been within his comfort zone. 

It couldn’t have been too much of a surprise for Peter that John turned down his offer to partner up. That’s probably the usual result. But you don’t know unless you try. 

All in all, the situation was well played by both men.

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A Variety of Games

Bob Dancer

Today I play different video poker games at different casinos — usually the highest-returning games offered in denominations that interest me. It wasn’t always this way.

In the “good old days,” which for me were the mid-1990s, the best $5 and higher games almost everywhere were 9/6 Jacks or Better. With slot clubs and promotions, this game could be played with an advantage at a dozen or so different casinos in Las Vegas. I learned the game 100% accurately and it was just a matter of putting in the hours, assuming you had the bankroll to survive the swings. Borrowing the title of a Josh Axelrad book that was based on playing blackjack, this was a matter of “Repeat Until Rich.” And I did. And many others did. 

There was some strategy choosing at which casino to play, and when. Casinos offered point multipliers sometimes, or had a promotion where they invited a lot of players in and gave away lots of money over a weekend — usually by a slot tournament or by a drawing — and if you played then, sometimes you got a piece of that money. Not every time, of course, but when you’re already playing a game where you have the edge, these extra “pieces of money” add up. In a typical year, I’d play in maybe 75 events (meaning some weekends I played at two different events), and collected the extra money at 10 or 15 of them. 

Back then, mailer money in Las Vegas was rare, whereas today it’s common. Today, it’s rare when I play 9/6 Jacks or Better. At the five casinos I play the most (limiting the discussion to video poker and not including playing slots, which I also play), I play five different games. Actually, more than five, because at two of the casinos, there is more than one acceptable game. I “rotate” which game I play depending on the monthly promotion.

And the games I play vary in denomination. At one casino, I play dollar single line, meaning $5 per hand. I’d prefer to play larger, but the higher-stakes games at that casino aren’t good enough. And the dollar game, plus slot club, mailers, and promotions, provides me with enough benefits that I keep playing there. 

I’m no longer playing just in Las Vegas. No longer just in Nevada. Although I’ve mentioned some other places I play periodically, and there are some I haven’t mentioned, it’s still a surprise to me that a resident of Las Vegas can find better video poker out of town. Don’t expect me to announce exactly which game I play at which casino. At some of the places I play, the good situation would not last if lots of players were playing it.

Playing a number of games keeps me sharper than playing just one game. Plus, 9/6 Jacks or Better is arguably the simplest game to play well. Every additional game I learn has special one-of-a-kind sorts of situations that I have to master. And when I do master them, sometimes they provide inspiration.

There is also the issue of keeping the games straight in my mind. The combinations that are the toughest to keep straight are the 3-card straight flushes versus two high cards, suited or not. Every game has its own rules and going back and forth between games, it’s easy to get mixed up. It’s also easier for a senior citizen to get mixed up than it was when I was still “in my prime.” 

So I find myself practicing more today than I did before. Just before I go and play a game I haven’t played in a month or more, I’ll spend a few hours mastering it again. I can get so I can play a game 100% perfectly, but it takes regular review to stay at that level for a number of different games simultaneously.

And it is no longer, “Repeat Until Rich.” The available edges are smaller today. Casinos continually become savvier and savvier in what games and promotions they can profitably offer. Casino mistakes are still out there, and I still try to exploit them when I find them, but they aren’t as numerous, as large, and don’t last as long as they did before.

There are still some players who do well, of course, and I am one of those some of the time.  But I believe the number of players who regularly exceeded $100,000 annual profit was higher twenty or twenty-five years ago than it is today. 

Still, I’m out there trying. It’s what I do. It’s what I enjoy. It’s part of what keeps me as intellectually sharp as I can be at my age. Yes, I’ve shifted to also playing slots as well as video poker, but video poker remains my mainstay. And probably will so long as I can find good games — even if those games aren’t the same ones I’m playing today.

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Learning it All

Bob Dancer

I was paid to help somebody learn the strategy for 9/5 Triple Bonus Poker Plus. “Mary” was a person who wanted to learn the minimum and take the strategy with her. Whenever Mary wasn’t sure of how to play a hand, she’d look it up on the strategy sheet.

I suggested this wasn’t such a good way to go about learning this game. There were enough unique hands in this game that you’d never know if it was an unusual play unless you knew the whole strategy. But Mary reminded me that she was paying me by the hour and the customer was always right, so we were going to do it her way.

Today’s lesson dealt with hands starting with an A of one suit and a suited JT of another. Mary wanted to concentrate on just those hands where the final answer was A or JT, but I informed her there were a lot of other possibilities. She allowed me to go over them.

“You hold all trips, which can only be aces, jacks, or tens, given that each hand we’re talking about starts with AJT and there are always exactly five cards in each hand.

“We hold 4-card straight flushes, namely KJT9, QJT9, and QJT8. Whether we hold 3-card straight flushes, KJT and QJT, depends on whether there is another king, queen, or jack in the hand.”

At this point, Mary stopped me and said she thought the lesson was just about A and a suited JT, not all this stuff about royal flush draws and straight flush draws, not to mention 3-of-a-kinds and I seem to be getting into high pairs.

“I am and it is,” I assured her, “but every one of these hands includes AJT. If you don’t want to look at every line of the strategy and use a top-down approach, these are all hands that can arise starting from AJT. Each of the high pairs, AA, KK, QQ, and JJ have different things to be concerned about, and low pairs are not treated all the same either. We haven’t even gotten into most 4-card consecutive straights and 4-card inside straights, nor have we discussed most 3-card straight flushes, which come in four different flavors, each of which is treated differently strategically. You probably should be taking notes. We’re less than halfway through and there are still some tricky hands ahead.”

Mary looked uncertain, not sure she was ready for this. If she pulled the plug on this lesson, so be it. I needed to know all of this because I played the game myself.

“Let’s look at pairs, remembering that we’ve discussed trips, so they are off the table. A pair of aces is better than any other possibility, as are a pair of kings. For a pair of queens, it matters if one is suited with the JT. If so, we’ve already discussed the 3-card straight flushes. If both queens are unsuited with the JT, the pair is better than anything else not discussed so far.

“For a pair of jacks, we now have the possibility of two pair — jacks and tens. This is the only two pair combination we hold with hands included with AJT. Pairs of nines and tens are lower in value than JT9. 

“Now let’s look at the 3-card straight flushes. Six of these include an A and two low cards. These are simple to play. Hold the three cards.

“JT9 is more valuable than any two suited high cards and any 4-card straight in the hand except QJT9.

“JT8 is more valuable than any two suited high cards and any 4-card straight in the hand except JT98. It is lower in value than every pair.

“JT7 is less valuable than two suited high cards and 4-card inside straights with three high cards (i.e., AKJT and AQJT).

“If you have a K in the hand suited with the A, hold AK unless there is a flush penalty to the AK, in which case you hold AKJT. If you have an unsuited K in the hand, hold AKJT.

“A Q in the hand is played identically to a K, with the exception that QJT9 is greater than either AQ or AQJT.

“There are three other hands starting from AJT where you hold neither A nor only JT. From AJT98, the correct play is JT98 and those hands with a 4-card flush (including JT), hold the 4-card flush. From AJT and any low pair, hold the low pair.

“Okay. We’re now ready to discuss the hands you wanted to look at first: AJT with none of the above items in the hand. But as you can see, there are a LOT of other possibilities before we get to this point.

“With AJT without any of the cases already described, first look at penalties to JT. If there is a 9, 8, or flush penalty to JT in the remaining cards, you hold the A by itself, no matter what penalties the ace has.

“If there is a 7 in the hand, hold the A unless there are two flush penalties to the A. In this case, a straight flush penalty to the case counts as a flush penalty.

“If the JT is totally unpenalized, hold the JT if the A has one or more flush or straight flush penalty.

“That’s it. That’s the entire strategy for these hands.”

“So, I’m ready to play now?” Mary asked me.

“Not really. AJT is probably the trickiest combination in this game, but an unsuited AQJ is played differently in this game than any others. Plus, the 100-for-1 return for straight flushes, rather than the more typical 50-for-1 return causes quite a few unusual plays. We can go over those later if you like. I think you’ve had enough for today.” “Finally, something we agree on.”

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Not a Smart Promotion

Bob Dancer

In Nevada, there are a large number of bars/pubs with restricted gaming licenses that permit them to have up to 15 machines. I haven’t counted these pubs, but I believe there are more than 100 of these in Clark County alone, a large chunk of land in the southern part of the state, which includes the two most populous cities — Las Vegas and Henderson.

In 2022 and 2023, a number of these pubs had a promotion where if you bring in a W-2G from any casino, the pub would give you up to 10% of that, usually up to $500. Although each pub had slightly different rules, if you hit a $4,000 jackpot at South Point, for example, you could take that W-2G to places that would give you $100 in free play today, and tomorrow would give you an additional $300.

You had to bring in the W-2G within 24 or 48 hours, sometimes loosely defined. Some of these pubs limited this to once a week. Some once a day. When they found out how slammed they were getting, some limited the promotion to only jackpots earned in to pubs, which for me was no problem because I played at Dotty’s. Sometimes you could cash the same jackpot at two or more pubs.

I’m not sure what the bar managers were thinking. Perhaps it was some version of, “These players will have $4,000 in their hands, and if we can just get them in the door, perhaps they’ll leave a good part of this here.” That must have happened some of the time, of course, but most of the time this was a losing promotion for the house.

Since I play at Dotty’s where you get rewarded for W-2Gs, I can generate as many jackpots as I like. It’s already a positive play at Dotty’s to play $10 9/6 Jacks or Better where I get a W-2G every 400 hands or so. Extra money for a promotion that was already positive is a good thing. My problem was: How do I milk these promotions? I know they’ll eventually stop the promotion or kick me out, because I’m definitely not the kind of customer they are trying to attract. 

When a bar would let you cash a W-2G once a week, I’d limit myself to once every other week. When a bar would let you cash the W-2Gs once a day, I’d never cash more than two in a week, and then I’d take at least a week off. I’d rotate the times I’d show up to all three shifts, so bartenders didn’t know how often I was cashing these. If the bar had several outlets around town, I’d vary where I’d go to pick up the money. 

Usually, the best game was 6-5 Bonus Poker, a horrendous game worth less than 97%. Whenever I came in, I’d play about an hour at quarters. That meant maybe $1,000 through the machines, which cost me $30 in EV. There were slot clubs and bonuses such as wheel spins for certain 4-of-a-kinds, reducing my expected loss to perhaps $10 — which meant a profit of at least $90 because the casino started me with at least $100.

Sometimes I’d come into each place and play for an hour or so without cashing any W-2G. I wanted my record to show that I was a “regular player,” not one who would just show up to cash a W-2G. 

In the earlier example, when I brought in a $4,000 W-2G and received $100 today and $300 put on my card tomorrow, I downloaded the free play as soon as I could. There was no doubt that eventually I was going to be removed from the promotions, and when that did happen, any unclaimed free play might well be forfeited.

I tipped the bartenders at least $5 or $10 each time. I knew the managers would kick me out eventually, but I didn’t want the bartenders suggesting that I be eliminated.

Eventually all of these promotions ended – at least for me. I’m actually surprised they lasted as long as they did, at as many different places as there were. I guess it was a copycat effect where, “That casino is doing it and seems to be getting more business. Maybe we should too!”

I ended up more than $10,000 ahead over all of these properties. Not a lot, and it required driving around some, but there was basically no downside. Yes, I could lose more than $100 in a specific day collecting the money, but over time it was guaranteed I would come out ahead. 

And when establishments are giving away non-trivial amounts of free money, I’m the kind of guy who takes it. And if I learn about another bar with this promotion, count me in!

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Taking What the Casinos Give You

Bob Dancer

Casinos are in the business of making money. In theory, casinos offer games of chance where the odds are in their favor and invite players in to play games that are rigged against them.

Under this theory, there would be no such thing as an advantage gambler. But the theory is greatly simplified — primarily in two areas.

First, some of the games offered are games of skill. You’ve heard of poker, blackjack, and sports betting. There are many more. And skillful players will do better than players without the requisite skill.

Second, casinos make mistakes — of many different types. Many times these mistakes lead to opportunities for players. Today I want to look at types of exploitable mistakes that I’ve discovered over the past 30 years. Many times, I’ve taken advantage of them. Sometimes I passed intentionally. Sometimes I heard about it afterwards. Sometimes I heard about it in plenty of time but didn’t recognize it as the profit-making opportunity it was.

This list is nowhere near exhaustive. Most of these happened in Las Vegas, but I’m sure they happened elsewhere as well.

  1. Game manufacturer providing incorrect information. The example that comes to mind here is Pick’Em Poker. This was a game that was worth 99.95%, but Bally Systems, the creator of the game, published that it was worth 98.8%. The game was popular (99.95% games tend to be that) and casinos kept putting it in for years — thinking they still had a cushion. Eventually, Bally sold the game to IGT, who rebranded it as Pick A Pair. IGT did include the original pay schedule in their offerings, but few casinos wanted a 99.95% game on their floor.
  1. Individual machine mismarked. Texas Casino (before it was Texas Station) had one 10/7 Double Bonus (100.17%) machine what was marked 9/7 (99.11%). While the front of the machine said it would pay 45 credits for a full house, you actually got 50 credits.
  1. Machine “too loose” for the casino floor. In 1995 at the Colorado Belle in Laughlin, the loosest games were dollar 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%), with most of the games quite a bit tighter than that. Two Bally Gamemaker machines were added. These machines included a number of games — including the Bally version of 10/7 Double Bonus which paid 400 coins for a straight flush rather than 250 and was worth 100.55%. The game lasted for a few months before the casino downgraded it.
  1. There are a number of examples where employees were bribed for small benefits. Slot floor people are minimum wage employees. If they’re in charge of handing out something worth $5 to players, which I’ll call scratchers because that’s a common way to do this, players will offer to tip $1 to get another scratcher or two. The casinos keep track of cash, but the scratchers are unmonitored, and employees are instructed when to hand them out. Under these circumstances, fraud and collusion will occur. Far better to design a promotion where this can’t happen.

It’s been more than 25 years since I bribed a casino employee to give me extra scratchers or such. But at the time, I was very tight on money and “needed” the extra. Today I’m not tight on money, but millions of players are. When casinos make it easy for players and employees to cheat, they will.

  1. There are examples where prizes, which are supposed to be chosen randomly, have codes on them which the savvy players can figure out. 

One casino mailed out some “to be scratched off in front of a casino employee” cards, with daily prizes ranging from being worthless to 5x points (which could be worth thousands of dollars to the right player.) If you had a strong light, you could see the prize through the card. It could be a hassle to go back to the same casino every day — but if you know beforehand when it’s really worth it, you make trips at the correct time. In the case of midnight-to-midnight 5x points, you arrange your whole schedule around being there at midnight when it starts.

Another casino let you pull scratchers out of a bowl. You then scratched off at the booth to reveal your prize. On the back of the cards, however, was a number which told the savvy player what was on the card. A code ending in 55 might signify $5 in free play and a code of 82 might signify $100 in free play. Some booth employees realized what was going on, and held the bowl at the player’s eye level, telling the player to draw one without looking at it. Some players, of course, drew more than one, scanned them all, and apologized as they kept the best one.

  1. Point multipliers are the bread and butter of many video poker professionals. To know how good this is, you must know how much single points are worth and what the game itself is worth. 

Sometimes you see mistakes with multipliers. Like when the marketing director at Eastside Cannery decided 10x points was a good idea because that’s what a competitor offered. The competitor offered base points of 0.05% and Eastside Cannery offered base points of 0.1675% and looser games. There were people holding machines for more than twelve hours before the promotion started.

Just knowing that one casino offers 4x points on Tuesday while another one offers 2x points on the same day doesn’t tell you which is the better play. It depends both on the value of the game you’ll be playing and how much single points are worth.

  1. Theoretical on machines. Years ago, several Harrah’s properties in Las Vegas offered high denomination 9/5 Jacks or Better (98.45%) with a theoretical of more than 4%. Some players came in twice a month, playing $150,000 coin-in at an expected loss of $2,300 each time) and they received $3,500 in free play each time they did this. Plus, slot club benefits. 

I didn’t hear about this one until near its end, but I did play it for a while. Long enough to be “discovered” by one of my students who was aghast that I was playing 9/5 JoB rather than the nearby 9/6 JoB machines (which required 2½ as much coin-in for one Tier Credit and had a theoretical of 0.46%). This lady asked me several questions and I just smiled and said nothing. I’m sure she suspected I was a fraud whose actions were not the same as his words.

Video poker is a lot more complicated than just learning which games to play and how to play them.

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Switching Players

Bob Dancer

During a juicy promotion, let’s say I have a deal with “Peter” that I will leave a machine at 5 a.m. and he will take it over. Later on, perhaps noon, he will give it back. But when he arrives at 5 a.m., all of the relevant machines are full, and somebody is hovering — waiting for a machine to open up. How do we handle this situation?

If I know the person hovering and he is reasonable to work with, he already knows Peter is taking over. How? I’ll tell him beforehand. Most professionals have made similar deals in the past and we don’t want some sort of fight where casino employees get involved. That situation rarely ends well.

If players are fighting over a machine, many casinos “solve” the problem by kicking out one or both players or removing the machine. If the players want it that badly, it doesn’t take a genius slot director to conclude that he’s better off without it. 

If the hovering player is a stranger, we try to switch players without incident. I might ask Peter to watch my machine while I use the restroom. When he sits down, I’ll tell him I might be several minutes, and he can play with his own card and money until I return. He cashes out my money and gives it to me along with my card, and he begins to play.

It seems innocent enough. An hour later, when the hovering player realizes that I’m not coming back, the problem has usually gone away. Sometimes that player has found another machine. Sometimes that player has given up on playing on these particular machines during that promotion. (Most of us have “backup” plans in case our first choice of machines isn’t available.) 

Sometimes when a full bank of desirable machines is occupied, another player will ask if anybody is planning on leaving soon. (I do this myself.) The reason to do this is to “get in line.” Usually this is a good time to say words to the effect that, “My machine has somebody already in line.”

Despite your best efforts, sometimes somebody comes looking for a machine and announces that the only way to allocate machines is “first come first served” and he’s first in line for the next available machine. If Peter shows up for his shift while this person is waiting, I’ll whisper to him to let him know the situation. Sooner or later this person will either get a machine or leave the area for a bit. When he does, that’s the time to make the shift.  

One thing to keep in mind is that regardless of whatever is done today, most of us plan on playing for years and “what goes around, comes around.” Sometimes you have the machine and somebody else wants it. Sometimes somebody else has the machine and you want it. 

Treating people fairly is almost always the best policy. It doesn’t always work well, but it gives you the best chance of having good results for years to come.

There is one lady in greater Las Vegas who is known for being a real jerk about these things. She’s made a scene at several casinos where she feels people have not let her have her turn, and casinos have removed machines because of what she’s done. Insofar as I’m concerned, she doesn’t play fair, and I won’t work with her. But with most others, I do,

One last thing to mention is that there are fewer of these great video poker promotions than there used to be. Just a fact of life. Sharing great machines is far less of an issue than it used to be.

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Getting Time on a Machine

Bob Dancer

Assume there is a juicy 24-hour video poker promotion that works best on four machines. There are more than four players looking for a seat — including you. How should you go about getting a seat?

For me, I try to establish a partnership that will last as long as the promotion. Somebody I can trust. Somebody I can work with again and again, because in a few months there will be another promotion where there are more players than seats.

Let’s say the promotion starts at midnight. One of us needs to be at the machine by 10 p.m., playing very slowly, killing time. When midnight arrives, the game changes and this player begins to play very fast. After some agreed-upon period of time, the players switch places. And, sometimes, after another period of time the players switch back again. And possibly even one more time. 

The two hours of “dead time” before the promotion starts is likely a money-loser. We share this. If I take this shift this time, my partner takes it next time.

Let’s look at what I would want in a partner.

  1. Someone I can trust. Trust is a many-faceted quality, but if “John” tells me he will be there at 10 p.m. and turn over the machine to me at 5 a.m., I want that to happen. I don’t want to hear “some other promotion came up,” or “I made a deal with somebody else and didn’t tell you about it.” 

If John calls me at 10:05 p.m. and tells me all the machines are full, and I believe him, that’s not a mark against John’s character. We made a judgment that 10 p.m. would be sufficient. Next time, maybe 8 p.m.

  1. I want somebody who can negotiate. Let’s say all the machines are full at 10 p.m. I’d want John to ask the players how long they are planning to play, and can he have the machine then? The best deal is that he gets the machine at 4 a.m. and doesn’t have to give it back. Then he can give it to me at 11 a.m. and if he wants another shift, he can have one.

The person negotiating is negotiating for the partnership, but if the best he can get is some time on the machine for himself and nothing for me, he should take that. Sometimes a machine will open up later. 

Let’s say he can get a deal where he can have the machine from 4 a.m. to noon, and then has to give it back to the guy who gave him the machine. After he has the machine at 4 a.m. he asks the others how long they are going to play. Sometimes he can work something out where somebody is going to want to leave at 10 a.m. and is willing to give that machine to me at that time.

  1. I want somebody who doesn’t have a lot of baggage. There are players in every jurisdiction who aren’t well-liked or well-trusted. Other players won’t be so willing to negotiate with somebody they dislike.
  2. I want somebody who can play for at least six or eight hours. I need my sleep between shifts. If the best somebody can do is hold a machine for two hours, that usually isn’t useful to me. Although it could be in a particular situation.
  3. I want somebody who will be playing with his own money and won’t likely run out mid-shift. A dollar Five Play game can go through a lot of money during an eight-hour shift, when things go badly. How badly depends upon what game you’re playing. So how much money is that player planning on bringing? If I’m told, $3,000, then I know this isn’t the right partner. While it could possibly be enough, very likely that person will be behind more than $3,000 during the shift. And if that happens, the machine won’t be available to me later.
  4. If the machine allows for it, I don’t care if the player I’m switching machines with is playing for the same stakes I am or not. On the Quick Quads machines I mentioned last week, you could play for quarters, halves, or dollars — Triple Play, Five Play, or Ten Play. Since it was a six-coins-per-line game, this meant you could play for the same odds for several different total bets between $4.50 and $60. Someone playing for $4.50 a play is just as suitable to me as a player playing $60. Each of us is at a different place bankroll-wise.

I keep note of who has agreed to share machines with me. This means I need to repay the favor down the road. The deal may be between John and me this week, but if there’s a way to give Harry a few hours, that takes precedence over giving the machine away to a complete stranger.

It’s a fairly small world of players wanting to play the same sized games as you during a promotion. You have to treat others appropriately. The maxim, “What goes around comes around,” applies here.

So, let’s say I have my partner. I start first and he gets to take over at 6 a.m. Next week, I want to discuss how the changeover happens if there are other players waiting for the first empty machine.

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That’s a Good Deal?

Bob Dancer

More than ten years ago, Bonnie and I were just starting to date. Some holiday was coming up and South Point was offering double points, as was their custom then. My game of choice, now long gone, was dollar Ten Play 9/6 Double Double Bonus Quick Quads, worth 99.65%. Since Quick Quads is a 6-coins-per-line game, this cost $60 per play.

For those not familiar with this game, there are a lot of unusual holds — such as 7743, 8885, 6663 (but not 8884), 443 (but not 442), and even, under the right conditions suited 23 and 34. Still, I had studied and practiced and knew the game well.

Typically, on one of South Point’s 2x point days (0.60% instead of 0.030%), I’d play about $200,000 coin in. The average loss on the game itself was $700 (0.9965 x $200,000 = $199,300) and the slot club on double point day would pay $1,200 (2 x 0.0030 x $200,000 = $1,200).

My expected profit of $500, plus mailer money and food, was the reason I was willing to spend all day at the casino. I told Bonnie that I could be talked out of playing if it was a really important deal to her, but normally on holidays I played at South Point. This was fine with Bonnie. She was going to spend the day at her sister’s house. I was welcome, but it wasn’t really a big deal whether I was there or not.

The variance of a Quick Quad game is very close to the same as the base game. Those of you who play Double Double Bonus know it to be a game with medium volatility. Much more volatility than Jacks or Better. Much less than Triple Double Bonus Poker. 

On Ten Play Double Double Bonus, your score for a multi-hour play will primarily depend on the number of royals, aces (especially those with a 2, 3, or 4 kicker), plus the number of dealt quads. Dealt quads in this game pay 2,600, $4,000, $10,000, or $20,000. These are not the same numbers for regular Double Double Bonus Ten Play, but they are correct for this Quick Quads version.

There is nothing sacred about playing $200,000 through the machines. That requires about 12 hours of play, and at my age then, that meant two six-hour sessions. I can’t always get a second session as there were only four machines. Some other time I’ll share some of my techniques geared toward getting a second session.

On the particular holiday in question, I spent my normal time gambling and ended up $4,000 in the dumpster, not including slot club points and benefits. This was not a particularly unusual result. I have been ahead $20,000 on one occasion and $40,000 on another playing this same game. The score will average about minus $700 so sometimes the score is positive and sometimes it is negative.

The next day, Bonnie asked how I did, and I told her she didn’t want to know. She asked again, and I told her I had lost $4,000.

“And you think this is a good deal? You could have spent the day with me at my sister’s and it wouldn’t have cost you a cent. Just think of what you could do with $4,000!”

While Bonnie’s question was probably “common sense” for many people, it’s opposite to the way I think. If I wanted us to have any future together, she’d at least need to accept the way I think about such matters.

“Well, Bonnie. First of all, for the games I play, a win or loss of $4,000 isn’t that large. I’ve had jackpots that size or larger several thousands of times during my career. I even had two of those today. I could have used another but I ran out of time.

“If I thought I would lose four grand, I wouldn’t have played. That was one possible result. As was winning $10,000. As was breaking even. As were thousands of other possibilities. I calculated the average amount, and it was big enough to make it worth my while.”

“You lost this time. What if you lost every time?”

“Well, that’s one of those things that is technically possible, but it has a probability of zero. I know that sounds like mathematical double-speak but it’s true. If I keep making bets where I have the advantage, I’m the overwhelming favorite to make money if I keep doing this.”

“But what if you go broke first?”

“That’s a very good question. Bankroll calculations are complicated, but these $60 bets are small enough relative to my wealth that it’s basically impossible for me to go broke playing this game. If I were betting $1,000 a hand, that’s a different calculation. But I’m not, and it’s hard for me to imagine a casino putting out a game that big with a huge player-advantage.”

“So, you think you can gamble forever and be okay?”

“Casinos change games and restrict players. I might run out of games to play. Or maybe spend my time playing for smaller stakes if I want to play at all. I might decide I have a bigger edge in a game other than video poker. But I don’t think I’ll run out of money.”

“It still scares me a little bit. If you go broke, I don’t want you coming after my money.”

“I’m not going broke. Tell you what. Pick somebody you trust, somebody smart, maybe your daughter, maybe your accountant, maybe your lawyer. And then pick any three years between 1994 and 2012. I will show both of you my gambling logs for the years you pick and explain what the numbers mean. You’ll see a daily record of what casinos I played at, what games I played, what W2-Gs I hit, and how much they all added up to at the end of each of those years.

“After we do this, you’ll see I treat this like a profession. I have winning and losing sessions, but overall, I’m way ahead. Come and sit next to me during a gambling session. Come to one or more of my classes. I have several gambling friends — male and female, often married couples. We can go out to dinner with a number of them over the next several months. Ask them anything you want about me.”

“Wouldn’t your friends only say nice things about you?”

“Maybe. But you’ll be able to make a judgment as to whether these are nice people or not. And honest people.”

“And why would I want to do all of that?”

“If you’re thinking about some sort of a significant relationship, call it doing ‘due diligence.’”

Suffice it to say, “it worked” and Bonnie and I have been married more than nine years. It’s not easy finding somebody compatible— especially if your profession isn’t “normal.” Easy or not, it’s something you have to go through if you don’t want to spend the rest of your life by yourself.

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A Look at: “Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk”

Bob Dancer

Billy Walters, a legendary sports gambler, finally writes an autobiography. For those who wish to share his success at betting football and other sports, he gives the “from 30,000 feet view” of his secret sauce. He prints the factors his computer programmers take into consideration, but you’re going to have to do your own analysis and come up with your own numbers. 

Although he ended up wildly rich and successful, his life didn’t start out that way and it was a very bumpy ride. He was raised in rural Kentucky by his grandmother, and he started gambling at a very young age. He presents himself as a degenerate gambler and alcoholic going through several dozen boom-and-bust cycles until he finally got his ducks in a row. He is not at all shy about recounting his many, many failures along his road to success.

One of his “secrets” is that he performs very well under pressure — and is not afraid to go broke if he calculates the odds being in his favor. He is a very good golfer, but even better at sizing up his opponents. Hustling at pool and golf taught him many secrets for getting money out of bookies. He is very good at applying what he has learned in one circumstance and applying it in another.

The Federal Government tried to convict him numerous times throughout his life. He was able to beat all the raps — except the last one, where he was convicted for insider trading. He maintains his innocence and blames Phil Mickelson for his conviction. Walters contends that if Mickelson had testified at Walters’ trial and simply told the truth, Walters would never have been convicted.

Although Walters has nothing nice to say about Mickelson (or Steve Wynn, for that matter), this is not a sour grapes book. He did his time, and now is helping others who do not have his financial resources to beat the prison system. Still, this is just one side of it. I’m pretty sure Mickelson would have a very different take on what went down.

Although there are dozens of specific stories in this book, Walters is not a particularly good storyteller. Many of his adventures would make a good plot for a thriller, but Walters recounts the stories in a rather matter-of-fact manner.  Billy Walters was one of those gamblers that Richard and I lusted over having on our Gambling with an Edge podcast. But Walters was in prison for much of the GWAE run and didn’t do many interviews. So, we never got him on the show. Now Walters is doing more interviews promoting this book than he ever did previously.

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Lord Have Mercy

How Special Is It?

More than thirty years ago, country music artist Travis Tritt recorded a song called “Lord Have Mercy on the Working Man.” The song is about the social injustices suffered by blue-collar workers.

One of the lines in the song is, “Why’s the rich man busy dancing while the poor man pays the band?” Today I’d like to apply that line to the gambling situation.

In gambling, it’s not so much the rich man versus the poor man, but rather the knowledgeable player versus the rest of the gamblers. While knowledgeable players sometimes have money, earning money in a casino and being wealthy are not the same thing at all. Casinos make most of their money off of well-heeled gamblers who buck the odds and lose.

Video poker is not a game where the losing players give money to the winning players. At least not directly. Indirectly, however, casinos take money from the losing players, give that money to the winning players, and hold out a percentage of that money for expenses and profit.

My goal in a casino is to be the player who is “busy dancing,” both literally and figuratively, while the losing players end up paying for my ride. I want to enjoy winning, dining, hotel rooms, cruises, and various other goodies while actually accumulating money during the process. It doesn’t always work out that way, of course, but that’s my goal.

Obviously, only a relatively few players manage to do this over time. Casinos need to make money overall in order to stay in business. But if losing players lose enough, that leaves enough for the knowledgeable players to enjoy the fruits of the game while still keeping the casinos afloat.

There are problem gamblers whose addiction causes considerable pain and hardship for their families. While I know these people exist, and their losing contributes to the money from which I’m paid, I largely ignore this aspect of gambling. I don’t know anything I can do to ease this problem.

I’ve been questioned periodically whether or not I feel guilty letting others pay for my good times, and my answer is always, “No.” I believe that players, problem gamblers aside, have a choice as to whether or not they gamble. 

Players know that overall, casinos win. Not from every player. Not all the time. But most players realize the odds are stacked against them. Some of us believe we have a system that works. Some of us are correct in this belief. Most aren’t.

Many players who wish to join the ones receiving these benefits can join the ranks by studying. Not everybody is up to learning how to play well, but many are. Even if you are intellectually capable of learning how to play well, it takes effort and discipline — and many aren’t up to that.

For me personally, I’ve tried backgammon, blackjack, poker, and sports betting. I’ve become convinced that I don’t have what it takes to succeed in those games — except sometimes when lucrative promotions are in effect. For whatever reason, I can do it in video poker and can’t do it in the other games. 

Each person has to work out which game, if any, is his/her path to gambling success. If you can do it— great. If you can’t, you are going to be a person who donates money to more successful gamblers. If that idea is offensive to you, then your choices are to get better at one of these games, quit gambling altogether, or learn to live with big losses in the casinos.