Tag: Bob Dancer

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 Whose Chair Is It? Take Two

Bob Dancer

A few weeks ago, I described a situation on a cruise ship where I sat down at a machine just as a woman was sitting down at an adjacent machine. Her husband was about three feet behind the chair I now occupied, possibly headed toward the same machine I now controlled as I slid in from the side.

The woman told me her husband was aiming for the chair I now possessed because they wanted to play side by side. Would I please let him have it?

On this occasion I gave up the machine. I also wrote that I handled such situations on a case-by-case basis and sometimes I came to the opposite conclusion. Let me tell you about one of the times when I chose differently.

This happened at one of the casinos in downtown Las Vegas. I’ve experienced similar situations at the Fremont, Four Queens, and Golden Nugget in that part of town. I haven’t experienced it elsewhere, but I’ve spoken to other players who have.

As I was walking through the casino looking for machines to play, I see a “Green Bob” machine at the $6 level where the minor jackpot is at 35. This is a game where it’s a positive play if the minor jackpot is at 25. Suffice it to say, a higher meter is a better play. 

This is not a guaranteed win situation. Without going through the entire range of possible outcomes, in order to simplify this discussion, assume that starting from where the machine is now, the player has two equally likely results — plus $1,600 and minus $800. This means the game is worth, on average, $400 plus slot club benefits if you play with your card.

While this is exactly the sort of situation I look for, many players do not have the bankroll to handle swings like this. Their total assets might be less than $800. Or maybe they are living “off the grid” and a W2-G of $1,600 would create an awkward situation for them.

The machine wasn’t being played, but there was a woman sitting in front of it. It was at least possible that she just needed to rest for a minute and randomly sat down at that particular machine. So, I politely asked her if I could play that machine? Often in response to an inquiry like that the person will stand up right away and let me play.

Not this time. She didn’t say anything, but a man came up and said I could play the machine if I wanted, but they would be my partners.

“What does it mean to be partners?” I asked.

“If you win, we split. If you lose, you’re on your own.”

“What about the W2-G, if one comes?” I continued.

“That’s yours. But if you win at least $1,200, you can easily afford the taxes.”

There was no way in the world that I was going to accept such a situation. The 50% of the time I won, I’d collect $800 and have a tax form to deal with. The 50% of the time I lost, I’d lose $800. 

“I’ll give you $20,” I offered. I recognized this as a negotiation. And I calculated the game as being worth $400, so if I could get it for less than $100, I was interested. In our example, we’re assuming we know exactly how much a game is worth. In the real world, it’s a guestimate. And even if my calculation is correct, I could still lose a significant amount. I’m not interested in taking on risk without believing I have the best of it.

He countered with $500. I don’t know if he knew what the game was worth. I don’t know if he thought I did. It seemed clear that I wasn’t going to be able to strike a deal that I liked.

As it happened, a slot floor person was walking by. I spoke up. 

“Excuse me. I want to play this machine and these people insist that I pay them money if I want to play it.”

“They WHAT?”

She looked at the man and woman and it was clear she recognized at least the man. “John, you’ve been warned about this. Either play this machine or give it up. Or maybe you want to be kicked out for a week again?”

The two players left wordlessly and I sat down and I began to play. 

I’ve seen this man subsequently, trying to pull the same stunt with other players. I’ve left him alone. I realize that I interfered with his “business plan,” and if I continue to do this, he could take countermeasures I didn’t like. I’m not really afraid of him, but why tempt fate?

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A Cold Night in Reno

Bob Dancer

On Monday, November 11, Bonnie and I flew to Reno to play at the Eldorado, one of the three casinos that make up the ROW, which is the only Caesars Resorts property in Reno.

We go often enough to get monthly mailers, so those offers were part of the reason we chose to go then. Plus, Mondays in November offer mystery Reward Credit multipliers between 4 p.m. and midnight.

The multipliers don’t seem to be much of a mystery. It’s a frequent Monday promotion there and the last dozen or so times we’ve been there for this promotion, as Seven Stars video poker players, the multiplier has always been 7x and the limit is 30,000 Reward Credits. In the Caesars system, this means you get your original points plus 6x more — so 4,285 or more base points earn you an extra 25,715 Reward Credits. That’s $257.15 in comps (or sports bets) or half that amount if you convert it to free play. 

Slot players get bigger multipliers and higher limits than video poker players do, but you have to pick one or the other before you start. While I play both games there, I play mostly video poker, so that’s the one I pick. Our offers also entitled us to some Resort Credits, which basically means Bonnie got to go shopping. (Reward Credits and Resort Credits sound the same, but they’re not. You cannot convert Resort Credits to free play or sports bets, but you can use them for other things Reward Credits are good for.)

I went upstairs for a nap. I was tired and didn’t need to play until later in the day. I didn’t set an alarm. I knew I wouldn’t sleep all day and since I play $50-a-hand machines there, it doesn’t take long to maximize the promotion.

Around 4 p.m. I woke up shivering. Although Reno itself was around 30 degrees outside, I set the room temperature to where we like it before I started my nap. But it was much colder than that now. Maybe 55 degrees. 

There were a few lights in the room still on, but the other light switches wouldn’t work, and the thermostat seemed broken. We looked outside the room, and most of the lights in the hallway were out.

We decided to descend the stairs to the casino level. I figured that the casino would have its own generator and even if the hotel were blacked out, the casino itself was the cash cow of the organization. Surely the casino would still be going despite any city power outage. I was so confident in this that I left my heavy jacket in the room. Bonnie is 81 years old and I’m 77, but we figured going downstairs wouldn’t be a problem. Surely this issue would be fixed before long.

Down on the casino floor, nothing was working. There were a few lights on, including some slot machines, but none were operational. The slot machines provided some warmth, so we sat down next to some to wait things out. Nobody knew for sure what had happened, but the casino employees were pretty sure this was a blackout over a part of the city and not specific to the ROW properties. Slot techs and floor people were manually turning off machines one at a time, but we talked them into leaving the machines close to us turned on so as to provide warmth.

Restaurants were closed as well, of course. We needed to eat. The only restaurants I know about in Reno are in other casinos. 

I don’t have comps at any other casino in Reno, so I figured we’d pick a place a few miles away, call to verify they were open, and catch an Uber or Lyft. We’d have to pay retail for food in a casino (a novel experience for me), and maybe the lights would be on in a few hours and we could Lyft back. We hooked up with a player we knew and took a Lyft to the Peppermill. 

Even though it wasn’t far from the casino to the Lyft to the new casino, it was cold outside. I do wish I had brought my jacket with me.

Over dinner, we discussed where to sleep if the problem didn’t get resolved soon. The other guy with us was enough of a player at Atlantis (about a mile away from the Peppermill) that he was able to get the casino rate for two rooms at $80 per night. The host said she’d be there only until 11 and and since we needed her help to get the rooms at that rate, we shouldn’t wait until after that.

We called back to the Eldorado about 7 p.m. and the operator said the power was on in her area and she thought the entire problem was solved, so we headed back. 

When we looked into High Limit slots, there were players playing, so we figured we were okay. I sent Bonnie up to the room and got to work gambling. I was playing $10 NSU, and in 20 minutes hit a $1,250 wild royal. It took 20 minutes to be paid. Not all machines were totally connected to the player system, and on some, any cash out at all required a hand pay. So, the slot employees were slammed. I was having doubts that I could get in my play for the promotion before midnight. The only way to guarantee it was not to hit any more taxables, but that would mean a loss of $10,000 or so, which wasn’t very attractive either.

Eventually, machines opened up in the High Limit slot area and when I hit a W2-G, I could move over to an adjacent machine and continue my play while I waited to be paid. I shared the “extra” machine with another player, who was also using it for overflow purposes. Fortunately we didn’t hit our jackpots simultaneously.

I finished playing at 11:30 p.m. or so and headed up to the room. When I got there, it turned out that when I had gone to the high limit slots area leaving Bonnie to go to our room by herself, the elevators weren’t working yet. So, she walked up 11 stories! 

As she started her journey, she connected with a casino employee who walked with her. Bonnie is an octogenarian with a cardiac history. This walk could have turned out to be fatal for her, but everything turned out okay. She didn’t want to bother me with this information while I was playing, so I never knew. Afterwards we had a talk about priorities. Yes, taking the time to help her could have caused me to miss out on part of the promotion, but her safety is much more important than that.

I don’t blame the ROW for this blackout. It hit much of the downtown area. This was a Reno infrastructure problem. It’s a fairly rare occurrence, and it just happened to bite us when we were there. Other than not getting our Monday night meals comped, and throwing our schedule off a bit, there was no harm to us.

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Whose Chair Is It?

Bob Dancer

I was playing Ultimate X on the Norwegian Bliss. In one area of the non-smoking part of the casino were four adjacent Super Star machines, each with 45 Ultimate X games on them.

I had finished checking the two machines on the right. I checked these machines a few times a day and overall, they’ve been fairly profitable. I found a few plays this time. Immediately before I moved over to the third chair, I saw a lady sit down in the fourth chair. I could see what I presumed to be her husband reaching for his wallet, and I assumed he wanted to sit down at the chair I was aiming for.

Still, when I sat down at the machine, he was still about three feet behind the chair, not touching it, and not making any overt move to sit down. As far as I was concerned, I had possession of the chair “fair and square.”

There are no official rules for whoever gets a chair when two or more people want it. Usually, it’s first come first served. An exception might be made if the person actually sitting down had pushed another player out of the way before sitting down. Nothing of that sort happened here. I had been neither aggressive nor rude in my sitting down.

The wife, however, immediately spoke up. “Hey! My husband was going to play that machine! He’s right there.”

At this point I had a decision to make. A decision where I have incomplete information on what’s going to happen with whichever approach I chose. There’s no doubt in my mind that she was telling the truth. I saw her husband close to the machine, reaching into his wallet, before I sat down. At the same time, I did nothing untoward that required me to give up the machine. 

If the lady called over a slot supervisor and argued her case, I’m pretty sure I would have prevailed. I can’t know this for sure. I’m inexperienced with how cruise ship casinos in general, and this one in particular, handle disputes. I’ve seen plenty of disputes in land-based casinos, but I don’t ever remember seeing one on a cruise ship.

Still, if it got escalated to a slot supervisor, at a minimum I would become far more “high profile” than I already was. Whenever and whatever games I was looking at in the future, I would become a “person of interest” to this supervisor, who would know I’d been in a dispute just the other day. Generally speaking, I’d rather be invisible.

So far there had been no heat with me checking machines for playable games. If players are fighting over a machine, a casino might well decide that it’s better off without machines players fight over.

This was not a particularly unusual predicament for me to be in. Situations similar to this have happened frequently as I’ve played slots. In many venues, there are more players looking for advantage slot machines than there are such machines at any given time. In Las Vegas, where the competition is fierce, players can be aggressive about getting and keeping machines.

But this time, for whatever reason, I let the husband have the machine with no argument from me. It felt right at the time. Had the same thing happened the next day, I might have reached the opposite decision. It’s a matter of “feel” for me and each situation is a little bit different. And once the decision was made, I moved on and didn’t worry about it. Yes, I probably gave up a positive EV situation, but there would be others, and my bankroll is such that it’s hardly a big deal to let one go. This time, anyway, it became a “don’t sweat the small stuff” situation. Next time, another aphorism may apply.

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Halloween Aboard the Bliss

Bob Dancer

Bonnie and I each earn at least one highly discounted Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) cruise per year because of our Seven Stars status within the Caesars Total Rewards system. Cruising to the Mexican Riviera out of Los Angeles is our default trip. I have extended family in Southern California and we use the cruise as an excuse to get together. We’ll show up a day early, treat everybody to dinner, and one of them will provide a place to sleep and transportation to and from the ship. It works for all involved.

This year, we cruised on the Norwegian Bliss. The first of our two cruises was a 5-day affair immediately after the Bliss repositioned itself from its summer run in Alaska. Schedule-wise it worked for us, and in another month, Bonnie will go with her daughter and enjoy the seven-day version of the trip.

We’ve been to the ports. Sometimes we get off the ship, and sometimes we stay aboard. For us, we use it as an excuse to go dancing every night. And, of course, now I know a bit about slots, I look forward to visiting the casino. When I was strictly a video poker player, I avoided ship casinos. Not anymore.

The Bliss has the best casino at sea I’ve ever experienced — out of possibly 80 separate cruises. Perhaps other ships have the same or similar features, but this is the best for me so far. The top feature of it is that two-thirds of the casino is totally non-smoking, and the smoking part of it is behind sealed doors. Although some smoke drifts through when people open the doors to the sealed area to enter or exit, it’s by far the best cruise chip casino arrangement I’ve enjoyed so far. There are machines and table games in both areas. Although I walked through the smoking area once to see what was there, I avoided playing there. The cigarette smoke is much more concentrated in that sealed room than in a regular casino. Even when I could find no more playable machines in the non-smoking area, I left the casino rather than check out what machines were then playable in the smoking area.

It used to be that NCL would give you a green casino player’s card along with a separate card you could use to get a free drink in the casino. You were supposed to be playing when you ordered the free drink, but they didn’t always check very closely. These cards no longer exist.

Now you tap your room keycard on the machine (very similar to the way you can pay for things with your smart phone at some locations) and you’re logged onto that machine. When you’re done playing at that machine, you can either cash out into a TITO ticket or tap your card again and the money will go to your account.

The next time you play (it could be in a day or two — it could be at an adjacent machine), if you have money in your account, you can simply download it at the machine. On this particular trip, I was able to build credits to an excess of $2,000. I downloaded $200 of it and carried it between machines in a TITO, which I find much easier to deal with. If it went to zero, I’d download some more. If I hit a sizeable jackpot (but less than the W2-G threshold), I’d put all the money on my card and download another ticket for $200 or so. If I dropped a ticket and lost it, I’d rather it be for $200 than $2,000.

On the last night of the cruise, I turned slot points into free play, played them off, and collected all of the money in my account. I was told I could leave both slot points and money on my card and the next time I sailed on NCL both the money and slot points would be there safe and sound. I’d be willing to risk that if I were sailing on two back-to-back cruises, but not if, as in my current case, it’s going to be a year or so until I return.

Just as in an out-of-town land-based casino where I plan to return again and again, I know for certain that at some point I’m going to die or otherwise not be able to return and redeem accumulated points and money. I’d much rather that money be in my estate and distributed according to my will than being left in the NCL account forever. I’m not sure what the NCL does with abandoned cash and slot club points, but I’m sure it doesn’t go to my heirs.

The third feature I appreciated was that there were nine Super Star machines in the non-smoking area, each including Ultimate X, among several other games (like Super Times Pay, Spin Poker, and several other video poker games, and Keno).  

The Ultimate X games came in Triple Play, Five Play, and Ten Play — and each had five separate denominations — and each of those came in Double Bonus, Double Double Bonus, and Deuces Wild. That’s 45 separate games to check per machine. To fully load such a game requires 10 coins per line — five coins to collect money as you normally do in video poker and five additional coins to build new multipliers.

These games could return 95% or so to the player if played perfectly with ten coins per line. (Playing perfectly is extremely unlikely due to the difficulty of the strategies and the fact that strategies aren’t published for pay schedules that bad.) If you can find a game with unredeemed multipliers, you play one dealt hand and each time you do so you’re playing at least a 105% game, and it can exceed 1,000%. The latter number is rare and usually occurs when a 10-coin-per-line player was dealt a flush or full house and left the game immediately afterwards.

Over the five-day cruise I found 300-400 playable situations on this game. I certainly wasn’t the only person checking, but the good situations kept getting created over and over again by the not-so-knowledgeable players. When you have this many opportunities and always played at an advantage, it’s close to impossible to end up behind. And, with a little luck, you can end up way ahead. Over time you’re going to hit 4-of-a-kinds and royal flushes. Those are always good, but when you hit such hands with a multiplier, they’re even better.

There were playable slot machines as well. Some rather new ones that many players didn’t know how to exploit, and also some oldies-but-goodies like Scarab. This is a game that is well known, and I never check in Vegas because so many players know about it. But on a cruise ship? I checked regularly and found several playable situations.

My biggest score ($1,000) came on a slot machine, as well as my biggest losses (about $400, twice). Overall, though, I was easily ahead on both video poker and slots. I need to juggle my time so that I can eat and go dancing with Bonnie, but there’s still time for me to go check out machines in the casino a few times each day. I didn’t hit any W2-Gs this time even though I was playing machines where they were certainly possible. Maybe next time.

Next year around this time the Bliss will be assigned to the Mexican Riviera route again. That’s good news for Bonnie and me.

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Spirited Response

Bob Dancer

As I wrote a few weeks ago, Bonnie and I were in New Orleans when Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida. We didn’t feel it at all in the Crescent City, which was 300 miles west of where the eye of the storm hit the mainland.

The following Sunday we flew to Atlanta, so as to continue our “play-cation” at Harrah’s Cherokee in North Carolina. When we fly from Vegas, we fly into Asheville — which is about one hour away from Cherokee. Although there are direct flights from Las Vegas to Atlanta, it’s a three-hour drive from Atlanta to Cherokee.

From New Orleans, however, flights to Asheville require plane changes and many hours. The flight into Atlanta took about an hour and a half, so that’s what we signed up for. Less flight time, and more drive time. We flew Spirit Airlines.

This turned out to be a fortunate play. Helene wreaked havoc on Asheville, to the surprise of essentially everybody. Had we planned to fly into Asheville, our flight would have been cancelled because the airport was closed for a few days while repairs were being made. Several weeks later, repairs are still being made to parts of Asheville.

On the flight, Bonnie somehow left her iPhone on the seat next to her when she left the plane. We didn’t discover this until we were in Cherokee — three hours away. The “Find My Phone” app said her phone was in the Atlanta airport (ATL), Concourse D. This, of course, was good news. It was likely in Spirit Airlines lost and found.

We called Spirit, hoping to make arrangements for them to ship the phone to our home. I was prepared to pay whatever the shipping charge would be. This has to be a fairly common occurrence.

But I couldn’t get through on the phone. The message said my wait was expected to be in excess of 90 minutes. I set it to speaker phone and put it next to me while I played video poker. Two hours later they still said the wait was expected to be in excess of 90 minutes. I finally left my number. They said they would call me back when they could. Since we were still in the aftermath of the hurricane, with airports still closed and Hurricane Milton approaching, it was understandable that the airline’s phone system was swamped. But they never returned my call.

On their app, they had a place where you could file a lost and found report. I did this. I also filed a lost and found report online for the Atlanta airport just in case Bonnie, perhaps, left her phone in a bathroom or somewhere after she departed the plane.

Our scheduled flight home left ATL on a Sunday at about 8 a.m. The lost and found office is open 8 a.m. – 5 p.m. Monday through Friday. My “plan” was to talk to somebody and agree to pay them $200 to be at the office on Sunday morning about 6 a.m. That is much cheaper than buying a new phone and, for the right person, a $200 bonus was something worth changing their schedule for.

But talking to somebody in lost and found proved impossible. Spirit has a chat feature in their app, but every person I chatted with, including at the supervisor level, followed the company line. Wait for the lost and found to respond to your request. They would not give me a direct number to the Spirit lost and found at ATL or the Spirit executive offices at ATL. 

The lost and found sent me an email saying they hadn’t located Bonnie’s phone yet but were still looking.

I was considering renting a car. It’s a long drive, and I didn’t want to spend my vacation that way, but, again, it would be cheaper than buying a new phone.

Out of the blue, another possible solution arose. A gambling friend who happened to be in Cherokee at the same time mentioned that girlfriend was flying into ATL from Tampa Thursday night and then driving to Cherokee. I asked if she was the helpful sort who might be willing to check the Spirit lost and found while she was there.

“Probably,” I was told, and he gave me her phone number. Through talking and texting, I gave “Mary” a description of the phone, my lost and found claim number, and the code that would unlock the phone. 

I asked her if she had a phone charging cord that would work on an iPhone 13. She did, but it was at home. She now had a newer iPhone which requires a different charge cord. By the time I called she was already at the Tampa airport. “Okay,” I told Mary. “Give it your best shot.”

A few hours later, Mary sent me a text with a picture of Bonnie’s phone on it. There was a distinctive mark on her case that I recognized.  “Yes,” I told her. “That’s Bonnie’s phone.” Turned out she didn’t need to show ID or have the claim number or see if she could open it. They just gave it to her. That strikes me as irresponsible, but Bonnie and I benefited from it this time.

“Disasters” don’t always work out okay. And after listening to all the horror stories of people’s houses being washed away in nearby Asheville, the possible loss of Bonnie’s phone clearly wasn’t a disaster at all. But it felt like one at the time.

I was not at all pleased with Spirit’s system for dealing with customer complaints.

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Found a New Game

Bob Dancer

Sometimes I play video poker at the Eldorado in Reno. The Eldorado, along with the interconnected Silver Legacy and Circus Circus, make up the ROW, and they are the only Caesars Total Rewards properties in Reno. Some of the machines at the Eldorado are pretty old, but gradually they are being replaced with newer model machines.

During a recent trip, I hit a jackpot in the high limit slots area and was waiting for an attendant to come deal with it. I went to a nearby bank of Triple Play/Five Play/Ten Play machines to check pay schedules. Although I checked them several months ago, new machines are being added at this casino all of the time.

The machines were multi-denomination, from quarters to Five Dollars, and the pay schedules varied by denomination — with the best pay schedules on the $5 machines. So those are the ones I checked. And I found a pay schedule too good to be true.

It was 10/6 Double Double Bonus Poker (DDB). This is a 100.06% game if the straight flush pays 50-for-1, and about a tenth of a percent tighter if the straight flush pays 40-for-1. This was the 50-for-1 version! Although the casino has looser-than-average games in their high limit room, a game requiring $75, $125, or $250 to fully load returning more than 100% is downright juicy!

I carefully checked to see that the royal paid 4,000 coins. I’ve seen pay schedules where you only get 2,500. I also checked three-of-a-kind to verify that it paid 15. I have seen games which were otherwise identical, only paying 10 instead of 15 for three-of-a-kind, and the difference is huge.

The Total Rewards slot club there adds significant value. In addition to the normal slot club, the ROW offers Reward Credit and Tier Credit multipliers more frequently than many other casinos in that system. Add this on top of a 100%+ game — now we’re talking!

I’ve played many versions of DDB and have the strategies on my computer, which was upstairs in my room. But not recently. It’s been a while since I’ve played this game and I’ve played several similar-but-not-identical games since, so I figured I needed a refresher course.

I went upstairs and spent perhaps an hour refreshing myself on 10/6 DDB. It’s a fairly simple game, and I’ve played it a lot during the past, but I especially wanted to refresh myself on all of the straight flush draws. I’ve recently been playing games that return 5-for-1 for the flush rather than 6-for-1, and the draws are different. I also reviewed the A versus a suited JT, and the unsuited AQJ. When I was comfortable with the idiosyncrasies of this game, I went downstairs to have a go at it. 

There were three identical machines in the high limit room, and one was taken by another player playing a different game. I decided to play $5 Triple Play. This was a $75-per-play game. This was more than I had planned to play this trip, but the game was looser than I knew existed, and I had a line of credit there in case things went badly. Which they can. Most of you know that DDB has a “heaven or hell” type of variance. Not as large of a variance as some other games, but if I fail to hit enough quads, especially the premium quads with kickers, I’m not going to like my score at all.

One of the “problems” with this game is that all quads are hand pays that range between $1,250 and $10,000. Each one requires the intervention of a slot person (or two, for the bigger jackpots). If I have two or more machines available to me, I can hop over to the “spare” while I’m waiting for any machine containing a jackpot to be reset.

I was stuck about $2,000 when I hit my first quad — which happened to be fives. I knew my machine would lock up with the $1,250 hand. Except it didn’t lock up!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

I examined things more closely and discovered I only received $1,000 for the jackpot rather than $1,250. The ‘only’ thing shorted in this pay schedule was quads between fives and kings, paying 200 coins rather than 250. This changes the pay schedule to about 98.5%. No thanks! That’s not a terrible return for most high limit video poker, but the Eldorado has some games better than that. I went back to the machine I was playing originally.

I had looked at the pay schedule closely — but missed this particular change. I was simply not aware that this pay schedule, with this one change from the “regular” pay schedule, even existed. It cost me $1,000 to “learn my lesson.” This was not a disaster, but I’m Bob Dancer and am supposed to see these pay schedules instantly. Well, I missed this one! But now I’m aware of it,. I won’t miss it again.

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What It Takes to Lose

Bob Dancer

I have a gambling partner, “Abe,” and, in 2024, we split gambling wins and losses 50-50. Our partnership encompasses video poker, slots, and occasionally other games. I am the stronger partner when it comes to video poker, although the difference between us is shrinking. He is stronger on slots, overall, but I am more knowledgeable about certain games.

Abe and I recently played at an out-of-Las Vegas casino, accompanied by our wives, and also accompanied by “Bo,” who is one of our slot gurus. Bo is a man who lives outside of Nevada, makes a very nice living playing slots, and sometimes shares information with us. We saw a new game at the casino. Bo had heard about it and had some good ideas about how to beat it.

The game needed to be played a lot by others before it was ready for us to play it. The right conditions didn’t happen at this casino, so we didn’t play.

When we returned to Las Vegas, we found that game in several casinos, but usually not in a beatable condition. Eventually we found a game that met our criteria. I took a picture and texted that to Bo. He agreed conditions were right. He said that if he were in town, he’d snap it up. Although he didn’t have data on this particular game, he believed that it was similar to other games he knew well and that we should hit the jackpot within the next six hours or so.

Over the next 18 hours, Abe and I played this game and proceeded to lose $27,000, at which point we “pulled the plug” and gave up on it. The top jackpot was still on the machine and not in our pockets. Possibly we’ll play this game in the future, once more data is obtained, but right now we’re not sure if it’s not as Bo believed it was, or if we were just plain unlucky. Either explanation could be correct.

Most players wouldn’t have lost that much on the game. To do that, you had to have the bankroll and a lot of confidence that you’re on the “right side.” Relatively few players have that combination of bankroll and knowledge, at least on this game at the present time.

The vast majority of slot players believe the house has the advantage on whichever game they’re playing. They might try a game, see how it goes, and leave before they’ve lost too much. They probably would never have played this game for the stakes we were playing simply because they were unfamiliar with the game and didn’t recognize what a profitable opportunity it presented.

The three of us, Abe, Bo, and me, are now analyzing what happened. Our current “best guess” is that we were on the right side of the game and got unlucky. Over time, we’ll collect more data and come to a more definite conclusion as to the profitability of this particular game under these conditions.

The knowledge and willingness to gamble that we have has served us well over time — just not this time. 

Oh well, we’ll shake it off and keep doing what we’re doing.

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Does Playing Multiple Lines to Reduce Variance Work in Slots?

Bob Dancer

I wrote a blogpost a few weeks ago saying that playing Ten Play has less variance than Five Play which has less variance than Triple Play which has less variance than single-line play, assuming you’re playing the same total bet. A comment was posted, unanswered by others, which asked: “Would this apply to all games of chance, including slots?”

My answer is that slots generally do not have the same structure as the Triple Play family of games. And by the Triple Play structure, I mean all lines have the same starting position after the deal. I certainly haven’t studied all varieties of slot machines, so maybe . . .

In the accumulative type of slots that I play, every combination of denomination and number of coins bet is in a different position except immediately after the machine is installed or the machine is reset. In a hypothetical Yellow Bob machine, let’s say they have a Mini meter, a Minor meter, and a Major meter. 

At any given point, the meters from bottom to top, might be 7-10-8 for 1¢ 100 coins; 12-19-9 for 1¢ 200 coins; and 15-10-12 for 1¢ 500 coins, etc. Each of these have a different EV. Playing the 100-coin version in this case would be a worse bet than the others simply because the meters are lower, not because you’re betting fewer coins. Depending on how frequently the jackpots come about, and how much each spin is worth on average when it does hit, either the $2 or the $5 game could be the better play. It’s possible that none of these have an EV exceeding 100%.

Let’s say the same machine also has games for 2¢, 5¢, and 10¢ — each having three different “number of coins.” That’s 12 separate games you have to check. Any of them might be the best play right now. Or, most often, none of them.

Some manufacturers give you a higher return for higher denominations. That is, maybe the 1¢ and 2¢ games, in all three “number of coins” variations, have an overall return of 90% and the 5¢ and 10¢ versions have an overall return of 92%. You either have to have inside information on the RTPs (return to players), or capture a lot of data to know if this is true.

This would seem to imply that the higher denominations are a better bet, but that’s not necessarily the case. Assume “average” meter readings, betting $5 at a 90% rate means you’re losing 50¢ per pull on average. Betting $50 at a 92% rate (still assuming average meter readings), means you’re losing $4 per pull.

One older game, called Clover Link Xtreme, has games in the four denominations we’ve discussed. You can have penny games with 500 coins (for a $5 bet), a nickel game with 100 coins bet (for the same $5 bet) and a dime game with 50 coins (again for the same $5 bet). These three separate games will all become positive at the same time. In this case, you want to be playing the dime game because hitting the Mini on the penny game is worth $10 while hitting the Mini on the dime game is worth $100. This is the only game I know that’s like this, but, again, I certainly don’t know all the games.

On slots that don’t accumulate, playing the higher denominations may have a better percentage return. So, if you’re playing until you reach a specific goal, say 1,000 tier credits, you may lose less on average if you play it on higher denominations — if this is a machine where the larger denominations yield a higher percentage. This will be a higher EV, but also higher variance. The amount you bet each hand is a key part of the variance calculation.

Keep in mind, though, that these slots rarely return any percentage close to what you can get playing video poker. Even bad video poker games return more than most slot machines. If you have the knowledge to know which video poker machines to play, and know how to play them reasonably well, that’s a much better bet than most slot machines. If you know how to identify advantage slots and can find them in a positive state, slots can certainly be more lucrative than video poker. But slot knowledge is hard to come by, and you’ll have lots of competition. There is some information in Michael Shackleford’s latest version of Gambling 102, and a more comprehensive book about slots is in the works at Huntington Press. I don’t know when it will be released.

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A Visit to New Orleans

Bob Dancer

Through the years, I’ve been to Harrah’s New Orleans twenty times or more. They used to have dollar Triple Play, Five Play, and Ten Play NSU Deuces Wild, and if you played enough, you got nice mailers including food, free play, and airfare. The casino was within walking distance to the French Quarter and the Mississippi River, and it was an enjoyable city to visit. They had a Diamond Lounge where if you planned it right, you could easily consume a high proportion of your calories for free every day — and the menu varied from day to day.

So, a surprising number of Las Vegas video poker players regularly made the 2,000-mile journey to the Crescent City. Players from all over the country came as well.

 Almost a decade ago, the NSU games were removed. The loosest remaining video poker I knew about (other than 9/6 Jacks or Better at $150 a hand, or more) was what I called Pseudo NSU, and others called Airport Deuces — among many other names. It’s a 98.9% game that might be acceptable with the right promotion and slot club. Although occasionally I would go for a Seven Stars trip, the tighter games precluded me from attending regularly.

This summer, however, Bonnie and I both received too-good-to-pass-up mailers — so we didn’t. These offers were presumably based on our play at Harrah’s Cherokee — which is also in the Southeastern part of the country. In late September we booked a total of four days — two in my name, two in hers — into the hotel — immediately before a stay in Cherokee. New Orleans is, more or less, on the way to North Carolina from Las Vegas.

Although the hotel is still called Harrah’s New Orleans, the casino has become Caesars New Orleans. There is a new Caesars Hotel that will open in a few months that is slightly smaller than the existing Harrah’s Hotel (350 rooms compared to 400), with 50 of those rooms branded Nobu Hotel, which is a higher-end experience. I was told that the Harrah’s Hotel will be refurbished, possibly renamed, and will continue to be part of the casino-hotel complex there.

The casino itself was barely recognizable to me. Brand new carpet featuring Julius Caesar’s head over and over again covered the casino. When we were there, we saw plenty of empty floor space that will presumably be filled over time with slot machines. The buffet is gone, and a food court area now takes the place of where I think they used to have a theater. 

When I was there previously, I was not a slot player. Today, there are a number of good machines that are sometimes positive, and presumably more to come. Percentagewise, there are far fewer video poker machines than there used to be, although it’s possible that ratio will change when the additional machines are installed. While I didn’t do an exhaustive search, I did see some machines with pseudo NSU on them — which isn’t what it used to be but decent enough by today’s standards. 

Using your Reward Credits (RCs) for dining is a bit tricky. Your RCs are redeemed at one-for-one at the Steakhouse, Manning’s, and the food court. Most other restaurants are redeemed at two-for–one, except Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse is redeemed at three-for-one. This means a $100 check at Ruth’s Chris will cost you $300 in RCs.

There are a number of restaurants throughout the city where you can eat using RCs, at the two-for-one rate, only you have to redeem your RCs first and get a voucher. If your voucher isn’t big enough, you have to use cash or credit card to pay the rest. If your voucher is too big, you forfeit what you didn’t use.

The French Quarter retains its charm. One of my “go-to” stops every trip has been to attend an hour-long concert at Preservation Hall — a venue dedicated to playing New Orleans jazz music in its various forms. Preservation Hall itself is closed now for refurbishing, to add air conditioning among other things, but the Preservation Hall concerts still exist at the Toulouse Theatre, a few blocks away. 

There is a United States National Park on Decatur Street in the French Quarter. Every day that they were open, they used to have tours of the French Quarter at 10 a.m. I’ve been on several of them over the years — and each one was slightly different. They no longer have those, but they have free daily ranger talks about the history of New Orleans music — with each ranger giving his/her own take on it. We caught two of those — one from a lady using a piano to describe things and the second from an upright bass player who used that instrument in his talk. It was a surprise to me that the park rangers were experts on New Orleans Jazz. I thought park rangers were generally out-doorsy sorts who knew about forests and animals. But these folks know their music! The talks were enjoyable, informative, and free. 

Bonnie insisted on one snack consisting of beignets and chicory coffee. “The” place to have these snacks is Café Du Monde. This time, however, Café Beignet had no line, so we stopped there instead. Even after dusting off all of the powdered sugar that I could get off of one of these donuts, just being there caused me to ingest killer amounts of second-hand sugar. I ate one powder-free donut with a small chicory coffee to keep the peace. I’m grateful Bonnie didn’t want to go there more than once.

We’ll return to this casino — possibly just before or after a Harrah’s Cherokee trip — again. New Orleans is a unique place to visit — and one of our favorites. In my opinion, we stayed away too long.

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Why is the Variance of Multi-line Play Less than the Variance of Single-Line Play?

Bob Dancer

I’ve known for years that Triple Play reduces the variance of video poker. And Five Play, Ten Play, Fifty Play, and Hundred Play even more so. When most of us had the software Video Poker for Winners, the variance for Triple Play and Five Play and Ten Play were listed. So, this information was readily available. Unfortunately, that software doesn’t work on modern machines, and it’s not going to be updated. So most of us no longer have access to this source of information.

Saying dollar Ten Play has a lower variance than the single-line version of the same game is simply not correct. The Ten Play version, at $50 per play, has a considerably higher variance than the single-line version at $5 per play. But variance-per-coin-bet is a different story. Dollar Ten Play and $10 single play both require $50 to play. Between these two games, the Ten Play version has a much lower variance.

I’ve had some theories as to why this is true, but my major certainty on this matter came from looking at the software, which I trusted, rather than understanding the actual math itself.

Recently, however, I attended a lecture by Dr. Stewart N. Ethier, Professor Emeritus at the department of mathematics at the University of Utah, which addressed this subject. Although Ethier’s presentation was far more mathematical than I can usefully present to a general audience, I understand his point well enough so I can simplify it for my readers. If you wish to see the original paper, which he released simultaneously with the lecture, you may view it at //arxiv.org/abs/2409.03607.

The key way of looking at it that Ethier presented is one that seems obvious once it’s pointed out, but I, for one, never noticed it. The variance of a video poker hand is the sum of two components; namely the variance of the deal and the variance of the draw, which I will refer to as var (total) = var (deal) + var (draw).

So far, so good, Captain Obvious. What does this buy us?

What it buys us is that the variance of the draw is MUCH larger than the variance of the deal. For example, the variance of 9/6 Jacks or Better is about 19.5, but this is the sum of the variance of the deal (about 2) and the variance of the draw (about 17.5). One of the major components of the variance is the frequency of hitting the royal flush, which is about 1/40,000 for the draw versus 1/650,000 for the deal.

The variance for Triple Play is the variance of the deal, plus the variance of the draw, divided by 3. For Five Play we divide by 5. For Hundred Play we divide by 100. Notice we’re dividing the larger of the components of the variance.

Although Ethier provides quite a few decimal places in his paper (which you can look at if you wish), these are the variance numbers for 9/6 Jacks or Better

Single Line – 19.5

Triple Play – 7.82

Five Play – 5.48

Ten Play – 3.72

Fifty Play – 2.32

Hundred Play – 2.15

The primary reason for preferring lower variance is the preservation of bankroll. That is, playing multi-line versions of the same game reduces your risk of ruin — i.e., your chance of going broke. It’s frequently not possible to have a choice between multi-line games and single-line games with the same pay schedule. But when it is possible, the safer play is to go with the multi-line game.

“Safer” isn’t everyone’s choice. Higher variance can be called “more fun,” and a number of players gamble for fun. I gamble for longevity and profit, and bankroll preservation is a primary concern.