Tag: video poker

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Bobby Vegas: Did Corporations Kill My Video Poker Star?

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

I almost titled this “My Video Poker Obituary,” but came to a different conclusion.

First, Rainbow cut its point promotion by two-thirds and halved the food-comp program. Okay, the new owners realized they were literally giving away the store, but it’s still a great place to play, eat, and win. Are you earning points for the Vegas Aces and Rod Stewart giveaway June 26th? If not, get cracking!

Now it’s the Downtown Grand.

What a great run. It lasted a few years, as it often does, before they tighten the screws. Which they did. For one, they were running a real Gives Good Gamble program and Anthony and I were fully on board. But now, according to VPfree2, DG pulled the plug on the Furnace Bar progressive. Oh, come on!

I know they were making oodles of money on that game. There were approximately 24 places at the bar, with people pouring in money night and day, especially when the progressives crept up to and past breakeven. But nope. Gone. The other video isn’t great.

My opinion? Plain corporate mistake.

I had a conversation with the general manager as to why they no longer give points on e- roulette, a very high-edge game. I’m one of those who works roulette for comps, part of my program to easily earn half-price prime rib and $7 breakfasts with as little as $25 played. Now? Gone.

The GM’s answer? “Comp cheaters!”

Oy vey. On a 5+% game? Those “comp cheaters” playing high-low, red-black, or odd- even were paying the house 5% to earn 2/10ths of a percent in comps. Cheaters? Seriously? It seems pretty much everyone in this calculation wasn’t playing smart. BTW, when I played for my daily half-price coupon at Freedom Beat, I had an expected loss of $1.25 to $2.50 on a discount worth $7 to $15.

So here we are again, moaning like any other Boom baby for the “good old days” when the music was better and the VP was richer and Giving Good Gamble was what Vegas was all about. But I digress.

What I want you all to know is I researched VPfree2 and found 21 casinos all over Vegas that still offer games from 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%) to 100%+ games and I’ll be reporting on them, and the next places I’ll be frequenting — where the games are good, the rooms are reasonable, and the fun is real.

Until then, remember, that “It’s not hard to win. It’s hard to walk away a winner” takes work! Enjoy!

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Getting Greedy

Bob Dancer

Often, I’ve heard players tell a video poker story of a time when their score was positive on a given day, but then they “got greedy” and ended up with a negative result. The phrase is usually accompanied by some self-loathing. Perhaps, “Why did I let myself do that again. I know better!”

I almost never say that, although I’ve certainly had my share of experiences where my score went south after I was ahead for a while. Today I want to look at that term.

I’m not going Gordon Gekko on you and proclaiming, “Greed is good!” As I’m using it today, greed is a negative trait.

Let’s also accept in general that winning is good and losing is bad. Then losing intentionally would be a bad thing. One more premise we must accept is that gambling scores go up and down. We can all recount what happened over the last half hour. None of us can accurately predict what swings will happen in the next half hour.

To my mind then, so long as I am playing a game that exceeds 100% in theoretical return, and playing to the best of my ability, when I lose, it’s just a circumstance I cannot control. I know it’s going to happen sometimes. Frequently, even. I just don’t know if it is going to happen today or not. 

If I hated myself after each loss, then I’d be in a psychologically unhealthy profession. Losing is just part of the game.

Most players, of course, aren’t playing games where they have the advantage. They either can’t find good games, don’t know how to play them well, or possibly are in the mood to play and don’t really care whether or not they have the advantage. For players like this, if they’re just thinking about the royal flush without accurately considering the cost to get it, then yes, perhaps that could be said to be “greedy.” But that’s not the way most players use the term.

As best as I can tell, some players who use the term simply mean they lost and aren’t happy about it. Perhaps they’re telling what poker players refer to as a bad beat story. If that’s the case, no big deal.

Others, perhaps, are justifying their loss by admitting to a “personality defect” (i.e., greed) which has the effect of saying that this is not really their fault. They are still good people who have occasional lapses.

But the fact is that they are going to be losing again and again and again — interspersed by wins sometimes. Every gambler goes through this. Even winning ones. It isn’t that you’re greedy. It’s that you’re playing a game with ups and downs.

Perhaps they use the term because they are poor losers. While nobody likes to lose, getting really, really upset about it probably suggests you should consider not gambling. Knowing you’re going to get upset over and over again because that’s the nature of the game isn’t the healthiest way to lead your life.

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THE COST OF PLAYING SIMILAR – BUT WRONG – VIDEO POKER STRATEGY

This post is syndicated by the Las Vegas Advisor for the 888 casino group. Anthony Curtis comments on the 888 article introduced and linked to on this page.

This article was written by Jerry Stich in association with 888Casino.

AC says:

Different video poker games and paytables call for different playing strategies. That’s obvious. But how much does it cost if you don’t make those changes and use one strategy for different games? This article addresses that, pointing out that the cost varies depending on which games you’re switching to without adjustments. The numbers indicate that the strategies for Jacks or Better and Bonus Poker, though there are some differences, are essentially interchangeable. That’s not the case, however, when using JoB or BP strategies to play Double Bonus or Double Double Bonus. That results in a reduction in expectation that can exceed 1%, which is significant. The penalty is also about 1% for mixing strategies in the referenced versions of Deuces Wild. The takeaway is, except in the case of JoB and BP, you should avoid using non-specific strategies between games. Video poker learning tools, especially the availability of different strategy cards, emphasize this point.

THE COST OF PLAYING SIMILAR – BUT WRONG – VIDEO POKER STRATEGY

Video poker players who play the game regularly – or even not so regularly – tend to have a favorite game or few games. They tend to play these games exclusively. They play the same pay tables for these select games. 

The reason for this is these players have learned and practiced the proper playing strategy for the specific game (or games) and pay tables that they play. They do this to maximize the return from their video poker play. 

But what happens if they cannot find one of their games and pay tables, but there is a similar – but different – game/pay table available.

Continue Reading …

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Waking Up

Bob Dancer

I’ve read several authorities who claim that having regular sleep hours is the healthiest way to lead your life. Whether these experts are correct or not, I haven’t lived my life that way. For the past 30 years, my life has revolved around when and where the best video poker plays are.

If the point multiplier starts at midnight, I’ll be there. At 3 a.m.? That’d be okay. I’ll make it. An appointment at 8 a.m.? No problem. Another appointment at 1 p.m.? That’s okay. Meeting for dinner at 7 p.m.? Sounds good.

Obviously, I need to sleep some of the time. So, I sleep when I can, set the alarm as needed, and get to wherever I need to be. Friends and colleagues learn not to call me at such ungodly times as 10 a.m. or maybe 3 p.m. because I might be sleeping. It’s better to text me something like, “Call me when you’re awake.” Some days I take three different naps. And, because I’m a male senior citizen, sometimes I wake up more than once just to go to the bathroom.

I take a medication that makes me slightly drowsy. I’ve asked my doctor for a non-drowsy version, but he thinks the one he gives me is the perfect one for my health condition. So, I take it at night — just before I go to bed — but if I’m only sleeping three hours this particular night because of a promotion, the drug is still in my system — at least a little.

The net effect is that when my alarm goes off, my body doesn’t immediately become wide awake.. If I’m going to gamble intelligently (or do anything else intelligently, for that matter), I need to make sure I’m awake before I proceed.

My three methods of waking up are showers, physical exercise, and mental exercise — in any order, often in combination. Showers are self-explanatory. My go-to physical exercise for years was jumping jacks. When my hip joint deteriorated and eventually was replaced six months ago, that was out. Plus, now I’m going to need arthroscopic surgery on my left shoulder, so even though I can now jump up and down, sort of, swinging my arms over my head is painful and will possibly aggravate the tear in my rotator cuff that’s already there. Depending on the time of day, I often I suggest walking around a block or three with Bonnie — which is good for a number of reasons.

For mental exercise, I do a variety of things. If I’m going to be playing a video poker game for which I don’t believe my accuracy is at least 99.9%, I’m studying that game — both by looking at the strategy and practicing on the computer. I wish Video Poker for Winners still worked on my computer, but I make do with WinPoker. I select hard hands so as to review the hands that are the most difficult. Or, I start from particular cards so that I know all the exceptions. 

If I’m going to be making a slot run, I’ll review all of my strike numbers. I have numbers for more than 60 games. The ones I see every day I know by heart. But there are some games I only see occasionally — so I forget the numbers if I don’t review them.

If I’m playing a video poker game I know well, I might amuse myself on the website www.extremesudoku.info. It provides harder-than-average puzzles, and after I’ve done one or two, I’m awake.

I do drink coffee in the morning and take a slew of vitamins that I think are working, but there are those who say that vitamins are just a way to have expensive urine. I’m not sure.

If I’m driving to where I am going to play, I’ll often sing along to the songs I play. I don’t need my voice warmed up in order to play video poker well, but there’s something about waking up my voice that also wakes up my whole body.

And then I go to the casino — do my best — and take what I get.

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Getting Lucky

Bob Dancer

Most video poker players have some stories they like to tell about a few times they really got lucky. Perhaps it was three royals in one week in 2017. Maybe it was being dealt aces with a kicker twice on Ten Play at such and such casino in 2022. Or winning that car in a drawing with only three tickets in the drum while some players had thousands of tickets. My own Million Dollar Video Poker autobiography tells of a number of those situations that happened to me.

Some players are proud of a large jackpot — never mind how bad of a game they were playing. Untold dozens of students have come up to me in my classes showing me a picture of a royal flush on their cell phone. Frequently they would say something like, “It’s a game you would say I never should have been playing, but . . .”

If they said that, I would back off. They already know that I’m a stickler for only playing when you have the advantage. I don’t need to tell them again. They’re proud of their $4,000 jackpot and I tell them congratulations and change the subject.

Although the proper strategy varies a little between good pay schedules and bad pay schedules, being dealt a premium hand is just as easy on all pay schedules (assuming a 52-card deck and a standard format game.) Ending up with a score for the day of +$3,500 (as might be the case if you hit a $4,000 jackpot while playing with a good pay schedule) doesn’t feel noticeably different than ending the day with a score of +$3,200 (as might be the case playing with a poor pay schedule.)

Similarly, when the losing days come (which they will — guaranteed), losing $2,300 in a day doesn’t feel that much worse than “only” losing $1,900. At the end of the year, though, the player playing the good games might be ahead $20,000 or so while the player playing the same amount, with the same skill on lesser games might be down that much or more. It definitely adds up.

I start from the presumption that lucky hits are, well, lucky. And random. If our goal is to get lucky while playing good games, let’s look at ways to increase the odds of that happening.

  1. Limit yourself to only playing good games. If the game, plus benefits from the slot club, mailers, promotions, etc., doesn’t exceed 100% in total return, don’t play. PERIOD. NO EXCEPTIONS.

You might find there are no such games in the casino closest to you. Okay. Don’t play there. 

Some of you will find this rule too restrictive. So be it. You’re doomed to being a long-term losing player, albeit with some lucky jackpots along the way. That might be acceptable to you — given the pleasure you receive from gambling. Or maybe you greatly value the casino freebies you receive. In any case, let’s continue our discussion for those of you who are still interested.

  1. Become knowledgeable about several games and learn as much as you can about the slot club at every casino you frequent. At the five different casinos I play the most hours, I play five separate games. And these are not exactly the same games and casinos that I played a couple of years ago. Casinos add and subtract games and change the slot club and promotions. If you’re a stickler for playing only one variety of video poker, you’re limiting your options.  It’s difficult to become profitable if you’re committed to only playing one particular game at one particular casino.
  1. Play a lot. Obviously, a player who only plays 10 hours a year won’t hit as many juicy jackpots as a player to plays 100 hours a year — or 1,000. And since you’re limiting yourself to games where you have the advantage, for the most part, the more you play the more money you make. There will definitely be swings up and down, but if you can survive them, you’ll do fine.
  1. Network with other competent players. The more players who know and like you, the more likely someone will share something that will benefit you. This is a two-way street, of course. You have to be willing to share something you discover with someone who has helped you. 

Three of my current “best plays” were brought to me by someone else. One wanted a percentage (which I agreed to, after negotiation), one did it for free because I gave him a tip a few years ago, and the third is a host — whom I take care of.

  1. Scout. You never know when your current plays will dry up. Everything ends after a while. If you’re winning, that might speed up the rate at which the games are removed. That’s just the way it works. If you find a play in another gambling community, check out the other casinos in that community every time. 
  1. Consider more games than just video poker. There are many games in a casino that are beatable. (You might want to listen to the archives of Gambling with an Edge. We ran that podcast for more than 10 years. There were a lot of different games discussed.) While doing the podcast, I thought about sports betting — but decided advantage slots was a game I’d be better at — so I’ve spent hundreds of hours learning about that – and am continuing to learn more. I may change games after a while.
  1. Build your bankroll. Gambling is one of those activities where it takes money to make money. Do this any way you legally can. One of the biggest ways to do this is to be very frugal and save whatever you can. If your goal is eventually to win big in the casino, you need to delay current gratification. Keep your car a few years longer than you otherwise might. Don’t be getting the latest and greatest anything. It’ll be cheaper in a few years. Treat your possessions with care and resell them on Craig’s list when you’re through with them. 

If you have a spouse or other full-time partner, it helps if you’re on the same page about this. After I became single in 2012 and eventually began considering who else to connect with, fiscal responsibility was high on my list of “requirements.” 

  1. Don’t be shy. Sometimes you’ll find a game that is slightly beyond your bankroll. (Important caveat: We’re limiting this discussion to games where you have the advantage.) It might make sense to commit 10% of your bankroll, or so, to taking a pot shot on this game. If it works, you’re set. If it doesn’t, you still have 90% of your bankroll to keep going.
  2. Know you’re going to lose sometimes. That’s part of the gambling game. Losing streaks end eventually. If you lose too much of your bankroll, it will make sense to play for lower stakes. If every losing session rips at your soul, you’re in the wrong profession. Losing on good games is NOT a reason to switch to bad games.
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Bobby Vegas: If Life Ain’t All Rainbows and Unicorns, One Rainbow Is All You Need

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

This is Commander Vegas speaking. Proceed directly to Rainbow. Pass the Strip and all the other crummy games and hustles. Wander down an old main street starting to come alive.

It’s sure not hard these days to see that life isn’t all rainbows and unicorns, but I’m pretty sure there’s still gold at the end of Water Street in Henderson after getting my new monthly mailer. Yes, I was bemoaning the reduction of the super-lucrative points conversion and possible loss of my weekly free meal, so I was very pleasantly surprised to get both this month.

Your assignment (should you choose to accept it) will be to earn lots of tickets for the 7:15 p.m. drawing on June 26 for one of four pairs of Las Vegas Aces courtside tickets at Rainbow (worth $2,000 each) or the June 27 drawing for one of four sets of Rod Stewart tickets for his July 27 show (worth $700+) at Emerald Island.

I’m telling you now, so you have all month to earn tickets. You think I’m sexy now, people?

As outlined in previous posts, at these drawings, I often see them running through multiple names before they get a winner. People don’t show up and the barrel isn’t very big. You have eight chances in two drawings to win.

A month or so ago, they gave away four Rolex watches.

Use your $64 worth of MRB coupons for two free wheel spins and a 2-for-1 at Rainbow’s Triple B café (yes, you can use that with points … stacking!).

Your further assignment will be to play positive-expectation (or very close) games during high multiplier periods. Stop after these periods end and have a handmade milkshake for the points equivalent of $4, which should take you about 10 minutes to earn. If you’re really hungry, treat yourself to any of the Triple B daily specials for the points equivalent of $9, which should take you less than 30 minutes to earn or less during 25x, 50x, and OMG 100x earning periods.

Playing and hungry after 10 p.m. or before 7 a.m.? Emerald Island diner is open 24/7. Try Anthony’s fave, the one-pound hamsteak special breakfast. I take home the ham and biscuits for snacks later.

I’ll post this article on BobbyVegas.com with the incredible 25x, 50x, and on Friday evenings 10-10:30 p.m. 100x points multiplier schedule. That makes the lame Jacks or Better at the Rainbow bar 99.88%. Add in your MRB wheel spin, extra cash, gifts, ticket drawings, and yes, it’s a positive play, baby.

I’ve played lots of VP games at Emerald Island that ended up earning multiplier points. (Refer to VPfree2 for the game details). You’re earning comps, at an amazing rate. Gift days and contest credits are earned only on base points, but you need only 200. And if you’re a new signup, they’ll give you another food comp too. Wheel spins Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as well as free ice cream each evening and extra free cash.

That you’re doing point multipliers during free wheel spins while earning comp dollars at a ridiculous rate and base points for tickets all at the same time — wait! I have to sit down, my head is spinning.

Okay, I just called casino promotions for clarifications. On the 26th they’re giving away four sets of two courtside tickets for the back-to-back world-champion Las Vegas Aces at Rainbow. On the 27th four sets of two tickets for Rod Stewart at Emerald Island.

We’re looking forward to hearing who won tickets or went to the game or show.

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ESTIMATING THE RETURN OF PROGRESSIVE VIDEO POKER

This post is syndicated by the Las Vegas Advisor for the 888 casino group. Anthony Curtis comments on the 888 article introduced and linked to on this page.

A.C. says:

What do you do when you run into a video poker game with what seems to be an inordinately high progressive meter? Maybe play it? Sure, but it’s difficult to make a spot decision about what the return percentage might be and whether or not you should play it relative to other options on the same machine. This article provides some guidance for assessing a progressive on the fly. It doesn’t give you everything you need to know, but the author makes that point and the shortcut advice provided is valuable. Print out the charts to consult or just commit the breakeven points to memory for the games addressed. Take the next step by applying the rules of thumb regarding the value of specific royal-flush-meter increases and you can make informed decisions in real time. Also, pay attention to the “Cautions” at the end of the article, which identify other important considerations. For the last word on playing progressives, check out The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives by Frank Kneeland, which goes beyond anything else currently in print on this subject.

This article was written by Jerry Stich in association with 888Casino.

ESTIMATING THE RETURN OF PROGRESSIVE VIDEO POKER

Progressive video poker offers benefits and challenges for players. One of the major challenges is determining the return at a specific level of the jackpot. This articles explores that aspects of the game.
In a progressive game, one or more lines of the pay table increases as the game is played. The most common pay line is the royal flush.

At reset value, the royal flush pays the same as a non-progressive – 4,000-for-5. As the game (or linked bank of games in a casino) is played, part of the amount bet goes towards increasing the amount paid when the jackpot is hit. Once a royal flush (or other progressive jackpot hand) is hit, the amount paid is returned to the reset value.

Continue reading …

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One Casino

Bob Dancer

Online, I read one person (I’ll assume a male) who said he lives across the street from a casino, and he plays to win. That’s all I know about him. He may live in Las Vegas where there are 20 or more additional casinos within a relatively few miles. He may live in a place where the next closest casino is 60 or more miles away. I’m going to address the latter situation, whether it applies to this particular player or not.

For a period of time when I had a “real job,” I used to walk to work — which I found beneficial for a number of reasons. I’d get exercise and have more useful time to spend than did others in the office who drove an hour or more each way to work. Some of those benefits apply to a casino being right across the street. But there are major differences.

Texas Hold’Em and other poker players sometimes refer to “outs,” which can refer to the number of unseen cards in the deck that can lead to that player winning. Sometimes it’s one card only (such as it must be the K♠); sometimes it can be many cards (e.g., any heart, any four or any nine). The more outs you have, the better your chances are of winning.

Similarly, sports bettors know that if you can only bet at one sportsbook, your chances for winning are very slim. If you can bet at any of 10 sportsbooks, and carefully pick and choose among them on the best price for a given game, your chances of coming out ahead are much better. Plus, if you win too much at one, you can stay away from it for some period of time. Many sportsbooks restrict winning players.

For video poker players, casinos themselves can be considered “outs.” The more outs you have, the better your chances are for winning.

Many casinos, of course, are basically unbeatable at video poker. Period. The best games there return less than 98% and the slot club and promotions don’t return nearly enough to make up for that. Possibly there are progressives that are sometimes positive. Sometimes there are variations of Ultimate X which can yield a return of more than 100% if the previous player left it in that condition. But those are short plays that don’t happen with dependable regularity.

A few other casinos, think South Point, for example, but there are others, have slightly positive games 24/7 which become even more positive during certain promotions. But these casinos usually restrict players who consistently win and/or only play during the juiciest promotions.

The “best” circumstance for players is to know of several such casinos and play among them according to which one has the best deals currently. If one casino has 10x points on Mondays and has beatable games, play there on Mondays. If another one has good drawings on Saturday nights, plan your life around playing enough to earn drawing entries and showing up there most Saturday nights. Until you win a few times. Then take a few months off. If one casino gives you a big bonus for the first $20,000 coin-in you play in a month, and nothing additional thereafter, it makes little sense to camp out there every day.

It also helps if you have more games than just video poker that you know how to beat. In keeping with the theme of this blog, each additional game you can beat can be thought of as an out. Although casinos can be quick to kick out successful blackjack players, winning at many other games in a casino is tolerated. For me, my fallback game is slots. Other players are good at poker. Still others have table games they know how to beat. Most games in a casino can be beaten under the right conditions — but knowing those conditions and finding them isn’t trivial. And there might be many other knowledgeable players who are also scouting for those conditions, meaning they don’t last long when they arise.

For me, while I still play a lot in Las Vegas, I also know of good games out of town. Some are “fragile,” meaning if I tell my readers under which conditions I go to play my out-of-town secret games, the casinos would adjust and change either the games or the conditions that make them positive. But I do share the information with a few people who in the past have shared valuable information with me. Sometimes I have paid “finders fees” to players who let me know of good opportunities.

When one lists the secrets to success at video poker, such things as outs and being networked to players who help you are not usually listed. But to me, they are important.

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When Do I Change Machines?

Bob Dancer

Although I’ve discussed this subject many times over the years, I think I’ve got some additional things to say about it that I haven’t written before. In this discussion, I want to include quitting for the day, and the difference in changing machines between video poker and slot machines.

I’ll cover video poker machines first.

  1. The primary reason to quit a machine is I’ve reached my objective. As I write this, South Point gives a free spin for $1,500 coin-in several days a week. That is, once you reach $1,500 coin-in, you go to a promotional kiosk and hit a button to claim your prize, averaging about $25. If I decide to be playing there that day, I’m not going to quit before I reach that goal — although there may be a reason to change a machine, which I’ll discuss later. 

When I play at Caesars properties around the country, they give you 10,000 Tier Credits (TCs) as a bonus when you accumulate 5,000 TCs or more in a day. (This is $50,000 coin-in for most video poker. At some casinos it requires more than $10 coin-into get a TC on their loosest games.) TCs are worth a little, but not much. Still, getting the bonus is worth something and I rarely stop before I reach that level.

Sometimes casinos will have a point multiplier of some sort with a limit. If the game is worth playing, it’s usually worth playing for the maximum. Here I’m speaking for myself only. If the multiplier tops out at $25,000 coin-in and you’re a single-line quarter player, you’re not going to be able to get to the max.

Sometimes casinos have the multiplier only between certain hours. If the multiplier ends at midnight, for example, I’m usually not playing after that. These multipliers can be valuable, and I’m usually playing games that are negative without the multipliers — so playing without multipliers or other promotion isn’t something I do.

Every casino has some sort of system where if you play a certain amount of coin-in you get a level of benefits. These programs are not always explicit, but with experience and talking to other players who play games similar to what I play, I can usually get an idea. I learn, for example, that if I play xxx amount per day or per trip, I’ll get better mailers in the future than if I play less than that.

Sometimes I’m playing a progressive where the royal is quite a bit above 4,000 coins. If somebody hits the royal (sometimes me — but it’s usually another player), I’m off of the machine.

Sometimes there’s an external ending point. For example, I might have a dinner date with Bonnie, or maybe I have some other appointment. That provides another stopping point.

You’ve probably noticed a common theme here. I’m in the casino for a reason. I’m not there to lose and I’m not there just to kill time.

  1. Sometimes I’ll want to change machines but still keep playing for the day. This could be because the machine has a sticky button or some other glitch, perhaps the chair is too high or too low, maybe a smoker or Chatty Cathy just sat down next to me. In these situations, if another machine is available without these difficulties, I’ll move.

Note that my score is not on this list. Whether I’m up or down two royals is not a reason to change machines. I’m looking forwards, not backwards.

  1. Sometimes I’ll just need to take a break. Perhaps I’m tired or maybe I’ve made a misplay. My reputation is that I play like a machine and never make a mistake. The reality is much different than that. At age 77, I make far more mistakes than I did 25 years ago. That’s the sad truth of aging. 

On a long play, if I don’t get up and stretch periodically, I’ll really feel it the next day. So, I take breaks periodically.

  1. There are video poker games with very short plays. I don’t usually vulture Ultimate X machines, but sometimes a positive one is visible as I walk by. Depending on which version of Ultimate X we’re talking about, this could be a one-hand play. I make it and then move on. If it’s just one hand, I usually don’t even insert my player card. In general, Ultimate X vultures are not profitable to the casino and some casinos use that as a reason to kick you out.
  1. Changing slot machines is very different than changing video poker machines. Slot machines are a smart play only a small percentage of the time — and usually the hitting of a certain bonus round signals the end of positivity. It could be that the machine, like the hypothetical Red Bob machine I discussed a month or so ago, has a Mini, and Minor, and a Major meter. If I’m playing until the Minor meter goes off (because the meter is higher than the minimum acceptable for a play,) and if the Mini or the Major hit before the Minor goes off, that’s just great, but I keep playing. Now if I need a break, perhaps to visit the restroom, I pay a floor person to watch the machine because if I don’t, another advantage slot player will move in and play, and I won’t get the machine back.

Sometimes two meters are slightly too low to be a play by themselves, but the combination is high enough. Then I’ll play until either one of them go off. If the other one hasn’t become high enough to be an independent play, I’ll leave.

Unlike video poker, in slots, whether there is a point multiplier today or not usually doesn’t affect when I quit. The multiplier may add another half-percent or so, which is nice, but I’m playing a game when it returns 105% or more and at that point the slot club is irrelevant. I may very slightly lower my strike numbers during a multiplier day, but usually not.

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Save or No Save?

Bob Dancer

You are one of the winners in a casino drawing. This time, there were actually eleven winners. Ten of you will get $500 and one of you will get $10,000. All prizes are in cash.

Nine people have already made their selections — and all have picked $500 — many of them showing their disappointment. There are only two cards left. One for $500 and one for $10,000. You know the other winner and he leans over and asks if you want to make a save.

“What do you have in mind?” you ask.

“The guy who wins the big prize gives the other guy $3,000,” comes the reply.

So. Do you make this deal? 

There are lots of different ways the save could have been structured. Through the years, I’ve been in this situation perhaps a dozen times. Sometimes I’ve taken the deal and sometimes I haven’t. Sometimes I’ve been the one suggesting the split. I’ve also witnessed others make this type of deal dozens of more times. Today I want to discuss what would make me say yes and what would make me say no.

Saves in general are a way to lower variance without affecting your expected win — this time changing the prize structure from $10,000 – $500, to $7,000 – $3,500. This is a preferable split to most players. But you need to be careful. 

Here we’re assuming there are two players with equal chances. Tournament poker players sometimes use a so-called “Independent Chip Model” to deal with any number of players, each with different chip stacks. That’s way beyond what we’re discussing today. 

First of all, do I trust the other guy? If the answer is no, I’ll decline the deal. If I’ve heard anything suggesting he’s not honorable, that’s a showstopper. A situation where I pay him $3,000 half the time but he reneges the other half is a lousy position to be in. If I’ve never seen this guy before, my default reaction is not to split. 

Second, what about taxes? The one who collects $10,000 is going to receive a Form 1099 from the casino for that amount, meaning the IRS is going to want its share. Possibly the $500 winner will receive a 1099 too, depending on the casino. In today’s discussion, we’ll ignore whether the $500 winner will receive a 1099 from the casino.

The two most-common ways to handle taxes are for the winner to eat them all, or for the winner issue his own Form 1099 to the other guy. I can live with it either way, but I need to know in advance. 

Lastly, and this isn’t always possible, I want a witness we both know and trust. If this is a weekly drawing at a local casino and both of us regularly enter the drawing, there are likely several others we know and trust to be a witness. If this is a drawing at a casino where neither of us have won before, finding that trusted third party will be tougher. One or both of you may know nobody else there. In this situation, I probably won’t know the other winner either and so my solution would be to skip the save.

There will not be time for a written agreement — signed and notarized. You’re going to have to go with a handshake deal. (Whether there’s a physical handshake or not is immaterial to the agreement between you being valid — but one or both of you might feel better if you actually do it.) 

One time I got burned on this. The other guy’s wife got involved after the fact and vetoed the deal. She was adamant and a big scene in the casino would have had bad repercussions. I choose to believe that the guy made an honorable agreement and his wife came in and interfered. It’s possible, I suppose, that they regularly pull this as a sort of scam. Two years later the same guy invited me to split, and I declined.

That’s it. Congratulations on making it this far in the drawing! Hopefully, whether you’ve agreed to a split or not, you win the big prize!