Category: Advice for Players

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More than Six and a Half Little Words

I recently read a blog by James Grosjean titled Six and a Half Little Words. It reminded me of an incident in my own life. I was debating whether to respond to his blog or to post it as a separate column several weeks later. It turned out to be quite a bit different from Grosjean’s original post so I’m publishing it separately. If you read the original, you’ll see where my title comes from.

I moved to Vegas in 1993 to be blackjack player. In addition to playing a lot of promotions (such as “Play 4 hours for $10 a hand and receive a free buffet, one free hotel night, and $60 in some kind of promotional chips”), I would obtain and cash numerous coupons — lots and lots of coupons — for a number of games.

I had a girlfriend (I called her Ginnie in my Million Dollar Video Poker autobiography and there’s no need to invent a new name now) and between us we’d earn more than $500 weekly from these coupons — in addition to whatever we could make with the blackjack and other promotions. It was subsistence living, but as far as I was concerned, I was “making it in Las Vegas.”

One of the myriad of tricks I learned doing this was that in a single deck game, if a dealer shows an ace on the first hand and you’re playing two hands (either by yourself or one each with a partner), and if all four cards you see in your hands are non-tens, then it’s correct to take insurance.

Eventually Ginnie left and I started seeing Shirley — to whom I would end up being married from 1997 until 2014. In 1996 I had a couple of $10-for-$5 match play coupons at a “one coupon per person per day” single deck place. Shirley didn’t know the first thing about playing blackjack intelligently, so I told her to sit next to me and I would tell her what to do. She picked up her cards with two hands, of course, and bristled a bit when the dealer told her one hand only.

The dealer dealt himself an ace. In my hand I saw a four and a five and looked over at Shirley’s hand. If she had no face cards, I would have asked about insurance.

(The rule I cite is correct when there are no match play coupons in effect. I used the same rule, right or wrong, when I had a coupon. Should they wish, others can address how the variations of rules on match play coupons affects this insurance bet.)

But Shirley was holding her cards close to her chest, preventing me from obtaining the information I needed to make the correct decision.

“Show me your cards! Now!” I whispered urgently.

“No! It’s against the rules to show anybody your cards,” she whispered back. It didn’t seem to matter to her that we were the only players at the table and while the money being wagered wasn’t officially “community property” bankroll yet, clearly it was the next best thing.

“SHOW ME YOUR CARDS!”

Intimidated, she did — showing me a jack nine. We didn’t take insurance and the dealer flipped over a queen, sweeping our nickels and coupons off the table. No big deal to me. You lose hands all the time at blackjack (or at video poker, for that matter). She was upset that I lost my money and I had raised my voice to her.

We had a discussion very shortly afterwards about what it means to be partners…at the gaming table and in life. First of all, whatever rules she learned about card playing with her sisters as a child had no bearing now. And second, for better or worse, when it came to figuring out the strategies to beat the casinos, I was going to be the boss. I was no table games expert by any means, but when the choice was between the two of us, I was light years ahead of her. I was the best we had.

We got through that moment — and it was a good partnership for a long time. But it didn’t have to be that way. That moment could have ended up being a show stopper had she not been willing to accept a “my way or the highway” inflexibility when it came to gambling decisions — including sometimes giving her an order that had to be executed IMMEDIATELY, without discussion until afterwards. She had to be able to accept that losing one hand was just a very minor bump in the road. If she was going to mourn and grieve over every losing session, I wanted no part of that. Finally, she had to believe that I could really win against the house — and I had to prove that again and again.

Clearly I’m not the best guy to be giving marital and relationship advice. Whatever things I think I know in that area have worked well some of the time, but other times not so much. Most of us prefer our experts to have a better batting average than I can boast. I know I do

At the same time, after Shirley and I split and I began seeing Bonnie, I had essentially the same discussion with Bonnie — albeit it “out of the blue” and not triggered by a specific incident. Had Bonnie not been able to agree that in this area of life I was going to be the boss, we would never have gone forward.

For many of my readers, it’s WAY too late to have this discussion before you’ve become serious romantically — because you’re already connected. Some of you have been married for 20 years or more. For others, it’s not so clear which one of you is the gambling expert. Many of you can’t present a convincing argument that you’ve been a winning player over time. And for most, success at gambling is a smaller part of your life than it is mine. All I can do is to share what works for me — and let you decide if there are lessons that you can apply to your life. Clearly, different readers will come to different conclusions and nobody is arguing that one size fits all here.

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New Video Poker Games at G2E from a Player’s Point of View

At this year’s G2E gaming show, I published a discussion of new video poker games — written for casino managers. You can see that here.

Today’s article is addressed to players — but it assumes you have read the previous article. Any phrasing that is exactly the same in the two articles is listed in italics, so you can skip that part if you’ve read the earlier words.

IGT

  1. Magic Deal Poker

This is a 10-coins-per-line game. It plays like regular video poker, except about 3.8% of the time, on the deal, you receive one, two, or (very rarely) three mystery cards.

In general, I liked this game. It is similar to Dream Card poker, except:

Dream Card has one mystery card whose value is determined BEFORE the draw. You can change the dream card if you don’t like the card selected by the machine.

  1. Magic Deal has one, two, or three mystery cards whose value is determined AFTER the draw. You cannot change such mystery cards, although in no cases did I see a hand where the machine picked a less-than-max-value card.
  2. Dream Card has obnoxious sound effects; fortunately, they’re missing from this game.

Another way to phrase the mystery cards occurring 3.8% of the time is to say that they happen 1-in-26 hands. That means you are paying twice what the hands are worth 25 out of 26 hands — and then hopefully you catch up when the multipliers come.

For players who “test the waters” by playing a few hands to see how things are going, this game will very frequently cause your score to drop like a stone. For players who believe that today’s score matters, this game will cause many of you to go away muttering.

The correct plays when you receive one or more mystery cards aren’t always that obvious. Letting an M stand for a mystery card and assuming you were playing a game just like 9/6 Double Double Bonus (except for the 10-coin per line ante and the occasional mystery card(s)), how would you play this hand: K♠ Q♠ Q♦ M M?

Deuces Wild players who see the mystery cards as basically equivalent to wild cards will hold QQMM, which would be correct in Deuces Wild. This is the wrong play here. KQMM is a much better play. Why is the play in this game different from the way you’d play in Deuces Wild? Because if you draw one of the remaining three royal cards in Deuces Wild, you’ll get paid for a wild royal, frequently worth 125 coins. If you draw one of the same cards in Mystery Card, you’ll get paid for a 4,000-coin natural royal.

  1. Ultimate X Spin Poker

Ultimate X and Spin Poker are both popular games — and this game links them well. It should work. Ultimate X is a 10-coins-per-line game and Spin Poker doesn’t require any additional money to play, so this game also costs 10 coins per line — or 90 coins overall.

Players who try to figure the correct strategy on this game will find it a much different problem than figuring out how to play “regular” Ultimate X. In regular Ultimate X, each of the lines deals with its own 47-card pack of cards — which is the original 52 cards minus the five you were dealt.

In the Spin Poker version, you have one 52-card deck in play. If you draw the A♥, for example, in one of the fifteen spaces, you cannot also draw the same card in another place. Additionally, because of the way the lines in Spin Poker cross each other, you’ll usually get each card drawn in three separate lines (although it will be two lines or five lines in the center column.)

What this means is that the variance in the Spin Poker version of Ultimate X will be significantly higher than it is in the Ten Play version of Ultimate X. Those who play regular Ultimate X know it already has a sky-high variance.

I really dislike it that you can’t play off your multipliers at the end of a session by betting five coins. I know there are players who make their living playing off these multipliers, but as a player who plays the game for hours at a time I find the regular stream of players coming in a checking the multipliers on every game of every machine to be annoying.

  1. Bonus Streak Ultimate X

This is a very difficult game to play at 10-coins-per-line. Instead of the usual multipliers you earn on the next hand in regular Ultimate X, here you earn a stream of multipliers over the next several hands. That is, you might earn a stream of 2x, 3x, 4x, 8x,12x over the next five games. If while playing this stream you receive a paying hand big enough to create additional multipliers (at least 3-of-a-kind in most games) all remaining multipliers on that line go to 12x.

The stream of multipliers created by getting certain hands creates a nightmare for players to analyze. “Regular” Ultimate X is tough enough and the games overhold the par sheet values. This game will be much tougher. And the correct strategy will be very different from that of “regular” Ultimate X. I see this game only being successful for low stakes for recreational players.

This game is very difficult to play correctly. There are many, many different possible combinations of multiplier streams. In addition, low paying hands (usually Jacks or Better and Two Pair in games without wild cards) do NOT earn multipliers. This makes basic strategy on this game very different from that of regular Ultimate X.

  1. Color Match Royals

The premise of the game is that the hand A♣ K♠ Q♣ J♠ T♠ is called a Black Royal, paying 2000 coins, and the hand A♦ K♦ 7♥ 4♥ 2♦ is called a Red Flush, which pays a little less than a regular flush. You also have black and red straight flushes.

Although I don’t know the exact strategy, it appears as though you should go for “color flushes” a high percentage of the time. This makes the game very boring as you are generally trying for a hand worth 20 coins when you have to pay 10 coins to play. If you don’t go for the color flushes, you’re giving up a lot of expected value.

Currently on www.videopoker.com there’s a free tutorial on how to play this game.  It is a simplified strategy, but I know of none better out there.

I do not like this game very much. To me, it doesn’t pass the “fun to play” test.

There are streams talking about this game on vpFREE, wizardofvegas, videopoker.com, and possibly other sites as well. I am not alone in my non-appreciation. Check out those discussions if you want more information.

  1. Super Triple Play Jackpots

Generally, I liked this game — but not the name. This is a form of “Wheel Poker.” Possibly there are some patent or royalty issues I don’t understand, but using “Wheel Poker” in the title would tell players what they are getting.

This game combines Super Triple Play, which is a 6-coin-per-line game where you get higher-than-usual payouts on 4-of-a-kinds (usually, depending on the game), and Wheel Poker, where you also pay an extra coin per line and you get to spin the wheel when you receive a 4-of-a-kind. Adding these games together makes this a 7-coins-per-line game.

The strategy is relatively easy to figure out assuming you have an approximately-correct figure for the average wheel spin.

In the original Wheel Poker, the wheel spin was worth about 430 on average. If I were collecting data while playing, I’d start with that number. I’d collect data on at least a few thousand spins before I came up with my “final answer.”

  1. Flip & Pay Poker

This was my favorite new game in this year’s mix. The game is relatively easy to understand without software, and the idea is different and interesting.

This is a 10-coin-per-line game, where the machine will flip at most one card under the following conditions:

  1. One card will be flipped one rank higher or lower, and always the same suit. That is, the 8♣ will only be flipped to a 9♣ or a 7♣.
  2. This is done with a 52-card deck, so if there is an A♦ 2♦ on the deal, the 2♦ will not flip to an A♦ because there aren’t duplicates in a 52-card deck.
  3. The resulting hand must be two pair or higher for flipping to occur.
  4. The flipped hand must be higher in Expected Value than the unflipped hand.

For example, if you were dealt 5♠ 6♥ 7♣ 8♦ 8♠, one of the 8s will flip to a 9, giving you a dealt straight.

If you don’t like the flipping, you can unflip. Sometimes some of the flips may seem strange. For example, in Triple Double Bonus, assume you are dealt A♣ A♦ 5♠ 6♥ 7♣, the machine will flip to AA557 or AA667 or AA577. Whether the machine flips or not, good players are just going to hold the pair of aces and throw away the other three cards.

Most players will not be sure whether it’s better to be dealt AA667 or AA567, given you’re just going to be holding the aces. The machine likes flipping to two pair (correctly!) but which is better is a mystery to most players and many will unflip.

My only problem with the game is the machine makes the choices and many players will be unsure why choices were made. The rules aren’t all that difficult — but they’re a bit tricky until you get used to them. A player dealt A♦ A♠ A♥ K♠ 5♥ REALLY wants that king to be flipped to an ace and may get angry when it doesn’t happen. If a floor person or shift manager is called over, that person MUST be fluent with the reason the K doesn’t flip to an ace (because the player already has an A♠ and the hand can’t contain two of them).

When I first played the game, I didn’t read the help screens. I tried to figure out the rules for myself. I tried to come up with cases where the smart player would unflip — such as K♦ Q♦ J♦ T♦ 8♠. If the 8 flipped to a 9, giving you a straight, you definitely should want to unflip. You’re going to throw the card away anyway, but you want all four 9s still in the pack rather than just three of them. When I read the rules for flipping, they said cards were only flipped when there was an increase in EV — so that should mean the 8 would not be flipped to a 9. But I’m not sure. That’s a fairly rare hand and nobody in the booth was positively sure how the game was programmed.

Scientific Games

The only other company I saw at the show that offered “ready everywhere now” new video poker games was Scientific Games. What they offered is a very close copy of IGT’s Triple Play series of games on which the patent expired not so long ago.

The Scientific Games version includes Single Hand, Triple Hand, Five Hand, Ten Hand, Twenty-Five Hand, Fifty Hand, and Hundred Hand games on the same machine. Players will figure out quickly that Fifty Hand is basically the same game as Fifty Play. The game titles are the same ones used by IGT, namely Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, Double Double Bonus, etc.

In two of the games, Scientific Games uses a different name than IGT does. It may have been intentional, but both times it struck me as a typographical mistake. They used the name Triple Bonus for a game that IGT calls Triple Double Bonus. Triple Bonus is an older game based on Kings or Better and it’s very different from Triple Double Bonus. Also, Scientific Games has a game called Joker’s Wild rather than Joker Wild.

The pay schedules on the Scientific Games are very similar to the IGT pay schedules, except often the straight flush pays 275 coins rather than 250. This adds about 0.05% to the player and is essentially a type of bribe to induce players to try the Scientific Games version rather than IGT’s.

So far this game hasn’t sold well, so players may never see it.

The game has several features of the latest WMS games (which came out two or three years ago.) WMS has been swallowed up by Scientific Games which is why you see those features here. As I recall, Station Casinos (now Red Rock Resorts) had the Las Vegas locals market monopoly on these games, and Harrah’s (now Caesars) had the national monopoly. These two casino chains never put these machines with good pay schedules so they didn’t take off. Once other casinos saw their results, they didn’t want the games either.

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I Lied to a Little Girl

I was at the elevators which connect the parking garage to the casino at South Point. I held the door open for a family of two adults and three children, the oldest being a girl who was maybe eight years old.

The kids got to the elevators before the adults and the oldest girl was staring at the buttons, not knowing whether to push up or down. When I quietly pushed the down button on the other side of the bank of elevators, she looked disappointed. She wanted to do it but just didn’t know which button to push.

I decided to try to make it up to her. I told her that when she got into the elevator, she should look for the button with the big “C” next to it and push that one. She looked at her father for permission. He nodded yes and she happily pushed the button.

She then asked me what the “C” stood for and I told her it stood for “Can’t wait to get there!” She nodded her understanding because she was being taken to a movie by her folks and indeed, couldn’t wait to get there.

Her parents smiled at what I told her. They appeared to judge me as a friendly, harmless, grandfatherly type of guy and didn’t correct the misinformation I had just disseminated. At least not in my presence.

The little girl, I never did learn her name, was delighted with the new information she had gathered. She appeared to have an insatiable curiosity and she just picked up something new — which made her day. Based on my two minutes of experience with her, she seemed to be the kind of kid who loved to go to school because there was no telling what kind of new stuff she was going to learn today.

It made my day too.

For whatever reason, I enjoy being around people who are excited to learn. In my classes, I’ve probably explained 2,000 times why a suited QJ is more valuable than a suited KQ, or why a suited AK has exactly the same value as a suited AJ. Pretty basic stuff, but every so often this causes a spark to go off in somebody’s head and they really appreciate having these “mysteries” cleared up.

Which is why I enjoy teaching. Which is why I enjoy writing. Which is why I enjoy hosting a radio show. My love for teaching people who want to learn isn’t restricted to gambling. I was the second of five children and often shared what I knew with my younger two brothers and sister. And I’ve taught dancing to thousands of people through the years.

That doesn’t really explain lying to a child, however.

Teaching (and writing and hosting a radio show) is at least partly entertainment. Yes, I’m trying to transmit knowledge, but if people get a laugh or two along the way, they have a better time in the learning process. When people enjoy learning, they’re more likely to want to pay attention and learn more.

My “can’t wait to get there” out-and-out lie was the kind of harmless “clever” joke I regularly share with my typical adult audiences. This one was corny — and most adults would smile at it. The fact that this child and her younger siblings didn’t “get” that it was a joke neither surprises nor bothers me. Often some adults don’t get my jokes, for whatever reason. (At least sometimes it’s because some of my ad lib jokes just aren’t that funny — or maybe miss the mark at times.)

This particular untruth was an obvious lie, recognizable as such to adults of normal intelligence, and didn’t do any harm. When people know you are trying to make a joke — especially when it comes off well — it often makes their day a little brighter too. I think of it as a random act of kindness to strangers rather than a violation of some “thou shalt not lie” commandment.

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A Mistake That Didn’t Cost Me

I happen to believe that mistakes cost you — even when they don’t. Say you were playing 9/6 Double Double Bonus for single line dollars, five coins bet, and were dealt 3♦ K♠ K♥ 3♣ 8♦.  Assume you’re knowledgeable enough and disciplined enough to know that holding KK33 is correct — but you were playing fast and only held KK because you saw the high pair but didn’t see two pair.

Further, assume the three cards you draw are 5♠ A♥ 9♣. Holding the kings only you end up with five credits. Had you held the two pair and ended up with the same draw (specifically only the 5♠), you would still end up with five credits. Many people believe this to be a no harm-no foul “non-event.”

I believe it cost you $1.16 in EV which is the difference in EV between holding KK33 and KK.

While it is true that you can’t take EV to the bank, my decisions in video poker (including which games to play, where, and when) all come down to EV. Over time, my actual results and my EV results will be fairly close.

They will never (okay, extremely rarely) be EXACTLY the same, but close enough. If they happened to be exactly the same and I played one more hand, they would usually be different. (If you want actual results and EV results to be identical all of the time, consider playing a change machine. You insert a hundred-dollar bill and get out five twenties. Put one of them back in and receive four fives. Put one of them back in and receive five ones. Then you take all that to the cashier and receive a $100 bill. Repeat. What fun!)

Each misplay I make costs me EV, and over time, those mistakes add up.

In the last week of August, there was a promotion at the Palms where video poker players received either a 2x or 3x multiplier every day. The base slot club returns 0.25%, so this means you would get either 0.50% or 0.75%. They limited the number of bonus points you could get to 80,000, so this meant if you received a 2x multiplier you could play $80,000 coin-in and if you received a 3x multiplier you could play $40,000 coin-in to max out your bonus points.

If this doesn’t make sense, don’t worry about it. Supposedly on October 1, Red Rock Resorts (formerly called Station Casinos) will be taking over and what is now Palms may be called something like Palms Station and be incorporated into the Boarding Pass system.

Since Station Casino has cut me off from receiving benefits long ago, along with several hundred other players, I do not anticipate playing at this casino once it changes ownership. And before October 1, I will convert my remaining Palms Club points to free play so I don’t have to worry about converting them once the casino changes names. If for some reason the conversion to Palms Station doesn’t go through, I can always start earning Palms Club points all over again.

Anyway, the only “decent” Ultimate X games at Palms that offer slot club points are 15-9-4-4-3 Deuces Wild. In the Ten Play version, this game returns 99.44%. With single or double points, a player is “under water” on the game, although that can possibly be made up with drawings, other promotions, and mailers. With triple points, the player has a slight advantage — with the drawings, other promotions, and mailers still on the table.

So I play this game during triple point days and avoid it otherwise. The machines come in 50¢ and $1 denominations, meaning $50 or $100 per 100-coin max bet. You can play it for Triple Play or Five Play with smaller maximum bets, but when you do the EV on the game is only 99.13% or 99.27% respectively. Not for me.

The strategy I use, which I will teach in my September 28 class at South Point, is broken down by the sum of the multipliers active at any one time. The multipliers may be anywhere between 10x and 120x. In the one-deuce section, for example, I recommend one strategy for multiplier sums between 10x and 31x, another strategy between 32x and 53x, a third strategy between 54x and 75x, and a fourth strategy between 76x and 120x.

So there are four different (but similar) strategies in the zero-deuce section and four more for the two-deuce section. In the three-deuce section, there are only two strategies for multipliers below 96x, and six more for those rare cases where it’s above 96x. For four deuces, there is only one strategy no matter what the multiplier sum is. I’m not going to tell you what it is.

In 2016, I’ve only played this game four times because it’s been rare when the conditions are good enough. So I haven’t committed this strategy to memory. It’s tougher than average to memorize and it’s a long time between opportunities, so I practice maybe a half hour before potential play and bring the strategy sheets with me.

The Palms is fewer than 10 miles from my home, so it’s not terribly inconvenient to go in and check whether my multiplier would be 2x (which means I wouldn’t play) or 3x (which means I would.) Every day I had the strategy with me — in case. I would show up slightly after midnight because there would be less competition for the machines at that hour. I’m not the only one who plays this game on 3x point days.

On Monday, August 29, I received a 2x multiplier. Tuesday, August 30, I received a 3x multiplier, and I sat down and played 40,000 points. I ended up a small winner, which was fortunate. Ultimate X has a VERY high variance and on any particular day, your score can be quite a bit ahead or quite a bit behind.

The last three days of the week, I received 2x multipliers each time and didn’t play. But I didn’t know it before I got there. So I practiced a bit, took my strategy with me, and was well rested when I showed up.

My strategy, which is on three sheets of 8½” x 11” paper is carried in a library book. If it takes awhile to be paid (like, for example, on an “in my dreams” hand of a dealt straight flush followed by a dealt royal which would pay $240,000 or $480,000 depending on which denomination I was dreaming about), I’ll read my book. Also, the sheets of copy paper last longer if they are protected by being in a book rather than carried loosely.

The last time I went to check my multiplier, however, I made a mistake. I had two library books checked out and the book I put my strategy in was not the one I ended up taking to the casino. So had the multiplier been 3x (it wasn’t), I wouldn’t have had the strategy with me.

Had I received the correct multiplier, I would have asked the attendant to lock up the machine, gone home to pick up the strategy, and been back within a half hour or so. It would have been a tad inconvenient, but not an EV loss, unless you want to argue that time is money and gas isn’t free and I wouldn’t have a good rejoinder to that. Still, I need to be more careful and wish I hadn’t made this mistake.

If this machine and opportunity is still available after October 1, you’ll have to find out from somebody else. I don’t expect to be welcome there.

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What Are You Trying to Get?

My niece Jessica, in her late 20s, recently married Blake. They live in Southern California. I asked them beforehand to choose their wedding present from me — either a check or a Vegas weekend. They chose the latter and then asked if it could include some video poker lessons. Sure, no problem.

In mid-August they came to town. I got them a nice hotel room, Penn and Teller tickets, and Bonnie and I took them out to a nice dinner. And, of course, a video poker lesson.

Jessica is NOT a gambler at all, but her new husband has been to Vegas a lot. Jessica wanted a game where she could have fun gambling and not lose more than $5 or $10 an hour. I got them a room at the Palms, where they have three machines that include penny Fifty Play 9/6 Jacks or Better. So long as she played five hands or fewer at a time, it would basically be impossible for her to out-lose her budget.

I used my normal class notes. I was unsure whether they’d be appropriate. Jessica has an engineering degree from an Ivy League school and my beginner Jacks or Better class is geared for people with average IQs. I don’t’ know Blake’s academic background, but I’ve known him for a couple of years and he’s pretty bright.

My classes are typically interactive with me asking questions to all of the students. So I went to their hotel suite, sat between them, and used the PowerPoint presentation on my laptop. I quickly concluded that asking Jessica most of the questions made more sense than switching back and forth, simply because the concepts were foreign to her and Blake was way ahead of her as a player.

One of the problem hands was A♠ K♠ 3♦ 4♦ 5♦ and I asked Jessica whether she should hold the black cards or the red cards? The way the class is set up, the diamonds are included in Rule 8 (3-card straight flush that is either consecutive or contains two high cards) and the spades are included in Rule 9 (two suited high cards). The ground rules of the class say you pick the rule that comes first, so in this case you hold the diamonds. (Note: this was a beginner’s class. Intermediate and Advanced classes have different rules.)

Jessica understood that I wanted her to pick the earlier rule, but then she asked, “What are you trying to get when you hold the diamonds?”

I thought I’d heard every beginner’s question fifty times, but this was a new one — and I’m not sure I gave her an answer that made her happy.

I clicked over to the Video Poker for Winners software and called up this hand by going to ANALYZE àSELECT SPECIFIC CARDS. I entered these five cards and then clicked on ANALYZE THIS HAND. I then clicked on SHOW DETAILS.

On the spreadsheet that showed up, the software said there were 1,081 different combinations of cards you could draw to 3♦ 4♦ 5♦. Of those 1,081 combinations, 941 of them give you no winning score at all, 18 of them give you Jacks or Better (paying 5 coins), 27 of them give you two pair (paying 10), 9 times you get 3-of-a-kind (paying 15), 41 times you get a straight (paying 20), 42 times you get a flush (paying 30), and 3 times you get a straight flush (paying 250). From that starting position, it’s impossible to get a full house, 4-of-a-kind, or royal flush.

To get the Expected Value of holding that combination, you take a weighted average of all those. That is, (5*18 + 10*27 + 15*9 + 20*41 + 42*30 + 3*250)/1081. If it’s been awhile since you studied math, you do all of the multiplication first — and then do the addition — and then the division. If the parentheses weren’t there, it would be a different order. The answer comes out to be 3.0759 (listed in the leftmost column on the spreadsheet), which means on average this hand is worth that many coins. Most players don’t want to do this math at all, which is okay so long as you have the appropriate software available. But you should probably at least know how the numbers are calculated.

I’d LIKE to get a straight flush when I hold 3♦ 4♦ 5♦, simply because that’s the highest-paying end result of what’s possible, but I can’t really say I’m TRYING for it. I’m looking for the combination of cards to hold with the highest EV — which is NOT necessarily the one with the biggest possible prize.

When holding A♠ K♠, there are now 16,215 combinations and the software gives the number of combinations hitting each category — the highest of which is a royal flush for 4,000 coins. But the average is “only” 2.9402 coins. Whether that’s high or low is only relevant in comparison to the EV of other possibilities in the hand. Since 3.0759 is higher than 2.9402, we hold the diamonds. Had the diamonds been 3♦ 4♦ 6♦ instead, with an EV of 2.6688, we would have held the spades.

My answer of “I’m not really trying for anything” didn’t particularly satisfy her the first time she heard it, but if she reads the Winner’s Guide and practices on the software (wedding presents, of course), I’m sure she’ll catch on if she wants to. (I suspect she won’t want to — I couldn’t even talk them into getting and using a player’s card!)

Still, I’m glad she asked the question. I don’t think I’ve heard it before — and now I have a good answer if I hear it again.

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When Experts Say Opposite Things

When I was in graduate school 45 years ago, plus or minus, I heard about an incident many years prior to that at the University of Chicago. It appears that there was an elevator for a campus building with a “Students Only” sign on it. One professor entered and was challenged, presumably in a friendly way, because he wasn’t a student. The professor answered, “We are all students. I study much more today than when I was your age.”

I’m that way too. I study gambling as much or more today as I ever did. One “advantage” of hosting a radio show about gambling is that I am “forced” to read gambling books that I wouldn’t otherwise pick up. I read the book in order to try to ask interesting questions of our guests. This gives me a much broader grasp of gambling than most players have.

I have many gurus — in the sense that I listen to what they have to say and try to apply it to my own situation. Two (of many) are Ed Miller and Richard Munchkin. Recently I realized that they said virtually the opposite thing about a subject — although ironically they both respect each other and would probably agree with the point of view of the other guy.

Sounds strange, right? Let me continue.

Ed Miller writes a lot about No Limit Hold’Em cash games with an emphasis on low stakes games. His recent book, The Course: Serious Hold’Em Strategy for Smart Players, is an excellent treatise on how to make money in $1-$2 and $2-$5 games. We’ve spoken about the book on the air, but we barely scratched the surface of what the book holds.

Near the end of the book is a section entitled “The Pitfalls of Running Good.” Miller says, “Running good out of the gate is one of the worst things that can happen to players. If they rack up big wins early on, a couple of bad things can happen. First, they develop unrealistic expectations. . . . Second, these early wins reinforce bad habits.”

I’m not going to quote his entire argument, but I found it persuasive. You need to guard against the dangers of running good. And Miller discusses several ways to do that.

Richard Munchkin, of course, is my co-host on the Gambling with an Edge radio show. However much I’ve prepared to listen to what our guest has to say on the air, I’m always eager to hear what Richard has to say as well. Although I often prepare a script beforehand and Richard knows where I’m going to go in the discussion, I never know beforehand what he’s going to say and I find that interesting and educational.

On more than one occasion, Munchkin has opined that a disproportionate number of successful gamblers ran good at the beginning. Why? Because a disproportionate number of the players who ran bad quit gambling! Somebody who always seems to lose has a tendency to give up and conclude that gambling is not for him.

So Ed Miller says running good at the beginning is one of the worst things to happen to you and Richard Munchkin says it happened to most successful gamblers. Not exactly contradicting each other — but close.

After mulling this over for a while, I decided they’re both right!

Running good does create some unreasonable expectations and bad habits, but gamblers who end up successful eventually learn to deal with these things. (If they don’t, they’re not successful gamblers. Nobody runs good forever.)

However bad running good is in terms of learning to play the game the right way, I’ll take it every day! While I understand Miller’s argument, I’d rather be $10,000 ahead than $10,000 behind. And so would you.

As to whether Munchkin was right about today’s successful players running good at the start, I started to examine whether it was true for me in particular. A case could be made that it was — but it also doesn’t matter. Anecdotal evidence about any one player (including me) doesn’t come close to proving or disproving any statement starting with “Most players . . .”

But I found Richard’s argument persuasive as well. The early loser tends to quit. The early winners tend to keep going. He’s looking at tendencies — not something that is correct 100% of the time.

I like it better when my gurus disagree with each other. It forces me to think about the arguments and come to my own conclusions. That’s how I improve my craft. And the fact that these two gurus are addressing games other than video poker means I always have to see if what they said applies to my game as well. Again, that’s how I improve my craft.

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How Much Do You Steal from Casinos?

I sometimes post on the forum at wizardofvegas.com. It’s hosted by Michael Shackleford, the “Wizard of Odds,” who’s a long time friend and former radio show co-host.

Recently someone there started a thread, “Have you ever stolen from your employer?” They included a poll and, early on as I write this, half (3 out of 6) of the responders say they have never stolen from their employers. With a sample size of six, no conclusions can be made. But as the sample size increases, surely the number of people admitting to theft from their employers will increase.

In Dan Ariely’s “The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone — Especially Ourselves,” he makes the case that most people sometimes steal at least minor amounts of stuff. While not all of us are employed, we all frequent casinos (or you’re wasting your time reading my columns). So I thought I’d change the topic to how often we steal from these places.

Defining what is actually stealing isn’t easy — even if we use Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s (used in a significantly different context), “I know it when I see it.” Let’s look at things that may or may not qualify:

  1. Getting a comped room/show/meal and selling it to somebody else. The fact that it is comped means the casino knows it is giving it away and is fine with that. Casinos have policies against selling comps, but that doesn’t make it illegal or immoral. If you give the room/show/meal away to a friend or relative and don’t charge him for it, does that change the “theft or not?” discussion in your mind? What if you were upfront with your host and said your niece was coming and you needed a room for her? To me, this latter situation (which I’ve done recently) is perfectly okay. I’m not sure where the dividing line is, though.
  2. Loading up on toiletries, toilet paper, etc., from your hotel room and taking it home with you. If you’re fine with this, how about extending it to towels? Or bedsheets? Where do you draw the line?
  3. You’re playing blackjack betting two reds (total $10) next to another player betting two greens (total $50) on a stupid 6-5 game. Officially it’s a $25 minimum table but you were grandfathered in because previously it was a $10 table and you can play the lower stakes until you leave. You both get blackjacks and the dealer pays you both $60. Do you immediately speak up and say, “No. You should have only paid me $12?” I wouldn’t speak up (not that I play blackjack anymore — and certainly not on a 6-5 game), but some players would.
  4. You cash in chips at the cage for $175, but somehow the cashier miscounts your chips and gives you $200 instead. Do you return the excess $25? I would, but some players wouldn’t.
  5. Morally, it’s tough to distinguish between the two previous cases. The rule I use (as do many other players) is that if a casino worker will personally be responsible for making up the shortfall, I give the money back. Taking money from somebody who is working for wages is just plain wrong in my opinion. If it will just go into the pot as a casino loss, as in the overpayment on the blackjack table, I’ll keep quiet. I am in the casino to make money after all. But just because I have a rule of thumb to guide my actions doesn’t mean that it’s any the less theft.
  6. I’m married to Bonnie, but used to be married to a woman named Shirley. Let’s say I still have some of Shirley’s old slot club cards and I still use the same mailing address as when I was with her. If Shirley got a “come on back and we’ll give you $200 in free play” offer in the mail and I came in and played off that money, how wrong would that be? For me personally, it isn’t going to happen. I am too well known. Even casinos that allow me to play have some reservations about it, so I’m not going to do anything that could backfire on me. What’s right or wrong shouldn’t depend on the consequences if you’re caught. But it’s probably a factor to most people. Decades ago if this happened, I probably would have gone in and picked up the free play without any qualms whatsoever.
  7. Playing on a spouse’s slot club card is allowed at some places and not at others. Where it’s allowed, I take advantage of it and play on Bonnie’s card. There are players with players’ cards in 50-100 different names. To me this is clearly wrong, but I can see the argument that it’s just a matter of degree.
  8. Is that morally different from entering free football contests (where you need to pick who is going to win) in LOTS of different names and coordinating the picks to eliminate duplicate entries?
  9. I know a guy who found a wallet in the casino. He turned it in to security almost immediately. But since he REALLY had to go to the bathroom at just that moment, he took the wallet with him inside a stall. What he did with the wallet inside that stall, we’ll never know for sure. Makes you wonder, though.
  10. Dealers are sometimes sloppy and expose their hole cards. There are players who specialize in seeking out such dealers and using that information to beat the house. Legally, thanks to the Einbinder case, these players are on solid ground (in Nevada anyway — maybe not so much at Indian casinos). Does the fact that it’s legal have any bearing on whether it’s moral? If players discovered that performing a particular action (perhaps tipping) made the dealers even more readable, is that unspoken collusion a type of stealing?
  11. You’re playing blackjack at casinos that will award you airfare if you lose enough money. You have perfected rat holing, meaning hiding chips on your person surreptitiously so the chips in front of you are a lot less than what you actually have. The pit boss writes down that you lost $6,000 when you actually came out ahead. You do this at six casinos during the trip and turn in printed receipts for the same flight all six times. You even went further. You ordered the tickets at full price — printed off multiple copies of the tickets — and then cancelled those tickets and booked the same flight at half the amount. You got the larger amount reimbursed six times for imaginary losses. Was the line between being clever and immoral ever crossed here? At what point? There will be some who say that’s just business as usual — and others will say the line was not only crossed, it was obliterated.

I could go on, but that’s enough for today. Most of us, myself included, consider ourselves to be moral, law-abiding people. And we all do things from time to time that are difficult or impossible to explain to somebody who takes an opposing point of view. And if somebody disagrees with you, they often take a “holier-than-thou” attitude about it.

I do the best I can and suggest you do the same.

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D T B

Bonnie’s family accepts that I’m a successful gambler. They also believe that the methods and discipline I use to succeed involve far more study than they want to invest — especially since it will never be more than an occasional hobby for any of them. Continue reading D T B

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“That Place is a Dump!”

A friend recently asked me what casinos in the US would be worth visiting, given her desire to gamble and discover new places. I often get that question when people hear that I’m a card player. What’s the best casino you’ve been to? Where should I stay when I go to Vegas? Do you like Casino X? Continue reading “That Place is a Dump!”

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Identifying a Pattern

I planned on playing for six hours at the Palms from shortly after midnight until about 6:00 a.m. on the early morning of Wednesday, April 27. It was a double point day— I also earned points for gift cards, a small amount of value for the weekly drawing, plus my play kept the mailers and other benefits coming. There were only two machines that I wanted to play, both containing $1 Ten Play Deuces Wild Ultimate X, and I expected other players to want the same machines on that day. So I went at hours when other players preferred to sleep. And this time, at least, one machine was available. Continue reading Identifying a Pattern