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Real estate frenzy on the Strip; Barrack busted; Masks redux

Setting foot inside Aztec Inn Casino is not for the faint of heart. But its owners think they’re sitting on a gold mine. It and a gaggle of properties that includes Golden Skull Tattoo and Diversity Tattoo is on the market in plots of $30 million each or $60 million for the whole Aztec enchilada. Because the area is somewhat, uh, challenged, it qualifies for tax incentives and there’s no height restriction on development—you’d be next door to the friggin’ Stratosphere, after all! Now, those prices seem a mite aggressive, given the off-Strip location and general dilapidation of the area. But with two acres of CityCenter fetching $80 million, why be timid about one’s asking price? It’s a seller’s market. As for buyers, so far they’re overseas interests who, seeing the chances of gaining a foothold on the Strip proper as being somewhere betwixt slim and none, are creating their own opportunities.

The fix was in at City Hall in Oakland, where the Athletics—despite extracting desired concessions from the city—used the negotiations as a pretext to pull up stakes and move to Las Vegas. Considering that A’s brass was kicking the tires on Clark County ballpark sites the day before the vote was taken is an index of how sincere the team was about staying in California. So it looks like Clark County will be strong-armed into helping subsidize a billion-dollar ballpark, even as it has already made three emergency-fund draws to keep Allegiant Stadium up to date on its bond obligations.

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Las Vegas flirting with disaster; Pennsylvania sickly

With the exception of brave outliers Las Vegas Sands and Westgate Las Vegas, most casinos in Sin City are reacting to the resurgence of Covid-19 by doing … nothing. There’s a ‘been there, done that‘ attitude toward crisis-period measures like requiring guests to wear masks or stepping up hotel sanitization (one recent guest to Harrah’s Las Vegas says his room was cleaned once in four days). “Where we sit right now with the information we know, that’s the best approach, for each operator to evaluate their own situations,” said industry apologist Josh Swissman. “It really comes down to what makes the customers feel comfortable.” And if that means sickness and death, isn’t that the cost of doing business in Las Vegas? About the only hammer that could be deployed to motivate a robust response would be new safety mandates from the Nevada Gaming Control Board and we don’t seem to be at that desperate juncture yet. (Operative word “yet.”)

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Atlantic City plays catch-up; Pennsylvania, Michigan flex online muscles

Casinos in Atlantic City are having trouble catching a wave from the Great Reopening. Last month’s brick-and-mortar revenues were $214.5 million, 9% down from 2019. Slot win ($154 million) was 8% lower on 11% less coin-in and luck wasn’t with the house at the tables: 16% less revenue ($58.5 million) on only 1% less wagering. Borgata ($56.6 million) was luckier in that respect than most, with its table win flat despite 11% less betting, while slots plunged 20% on 23% less coin-in for an overall -13%. The Caesars Entertainment threesome slid 15%, on 17% lower slot win (18% less handle) and an 8% dip at the tables, where players bet 7% less than two years ago. Caesars Atlantic City fell 14% to $20 million last month, Harrah’s Resort slipped 13% to $21 million and Tropicana Atlantic City tumbled 18% to $21 million.

The only-revenue positive casinos were Ocean Resort, gaining 14% to $23 million (outdoing any Caesars property), and Hard Rock Atlantic City, surging 17% to $35 million. It will take more than new, pink windows to turn around Bally’s Atlantic City, plummeting 30% to $11 million. Also falling on hard times was the Golden Nugget, down 23% to $12 million, which left Resorts Atlantic City, down 11% to $14 million.

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Massachusetts stumbles, Louisiana cruises; Big blunder at Circa

Shazam! Massachusetts casino revenues for June were $84 million, 67% higher than 2019. But wait … as Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli points out, Encore Boston Harbor wasn’t operational two years ago (it debuted on June 23, 2019), so on a same-store basis, casinos were actually down 6%. How come? The Bay State doesn’t have Internet gambling, which is starting to sap Pennsylvania. Capacity is unrestrained, although poker rooms aren’t back and we hear that players are hopping mad about it. Maybe Massachusetts players just don’t have that pent-up demand we’ve seen just about everywhere else. Encore dominated with $52.5 million, while MGM Springfield actually managed a 1% increase, to $20 million. Plainridge Park was the laggard, falling 16.5% and grossing $11 million. Expect owner Penn National Gaming to renew its mewl for table games at what was always and explicitly meant to be a slots-only facility.

Drilling further down, Wynn Resorts had 63% market share, MGM 24% and Penn 13%. MGM’s comeback was powered by slots, up 4% whilst tables were 9% down. It was the other way around at Encore, where tables were up 3% ($23 million) and slots dipped 4% ($29.5 million). Wynn’s decision to predicate Encore on upper-market play is coming up aces but what MGM thought it was doing building a high-end property way out in Springfield will be a head-scratcher for future historians of the company. We know the rich folks like to luxuriate in nearby Lenox but still …

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Indiana, Missouri stay strong; Mixed feelings about buffets

Casino winnings in Indiana came up just a few increments short of $200 million last month, a 13% gain on 2019. Hard Rock Gary came out of the blocks fast, grossing $26 million, although Horseshoe Hammond climbed 7% to retain supremacy at $34.5 million. Consigned to third place in the northern tier, Ameristar East Chicago won $21.5 million, still a 20% surge from 2019. Blue Chip, on the other hand, suffered. It was down 15% to $11 million. It’s Horseshoe’s ballgame to lose.

Farther south, it was more of a mixed bag. Two big gainers were Indiana Grand, up 15% to $24.5 million, and Harrah’s Hoosier Downs, galloping +16% to $18 million. Caesars Southern Indiana also put in a strong showing, up 11.5% to $19.5 million. Hollywood Lawrenceburg ceded 2% to $13 million, while Belterra Resort slipped 9% to $8 million. Tropicana Evansville edged 3% higher to $12 million, Rising Star eked out $4 million, a 6.5% downturn, and French Lick Resort tumbled 17% to $7 million.

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Nevada conventions healthy, Nevadans not so much

Tourism to Las Vegas in May was 12% higher than April and June should continue the climb, even if long-awaited World of Concrete was a flop (one-sixth of the expected attendance). Next up was the Nightclub & Bar Show, which drew 9,000 attendees. “I have goosebumps,” said one conventioneer of the back-to-almost-normal atmosphere. Despite the pounding techno music, amenities ran toward such mundane finger foods as Cheetos and tater tots. Portable bowling alleys and karaoke machines were among the items of interest. Evidently attendance was a last-minute decision for some, judging from the on-site registrations spotted by the Wall Street Journal. Most of the products on display were rather humble, such as a new drinking game (patent pending?) and a green-colored schnapps called Nuke Waste—how apt for Nevada.

It wasn’t quite the Nightclub & Bar Show of years past, being significantly chastened by Covid concerns. Where the expo had once been synonymous with six nights of clubbing, this year there were but two. Panels and (the more important) happy hours were also curtailed. Attendance was down 15%, exhibitors by 20%, which is still a lot better than World of Concrete managed. “Most of my sales from 1980 until today are still in-person,” said game entrepreneur Bobby Earp. “There’s no substitute for the contacts we make here.” Attendees were more worried about rising labor costs and flagging social-media presences than about Coronavirus. Even if the event was rather muted, the expo floor was awash with booze, which was freely sampled, one of the great bonuses of almost any Vegas convention. With 35 large-scale events booked between now and the end of the year, the Sin City convention calendar looks surprisingly healthy.

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CityCenter sale applauded; DraftKings sued twice over

Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli took a gander at the terms of MGM Resorts International‘s purchase/re-sale of Aria and Vdara, and liked what he saw. He reaffirmed his “buy” rating on MGM shares, with a price target of $54. He applauded the deal for three reasons: simplification of MGM’s corporate structure by removing joint-venture partner Infinity World; cash and lots of it; the transaction “allows MGM to better manage its Strip assets, as opposed to receiving fifty cent dollars at a key core asset, as it had been.” Santarelli believes MGM will use at least some of the proceeds to pay the remaining $1.7 billion in CityCenter debt. Considering that it cost MGM $4 billion to build Aria alone, we think the transaction is, at best, a wash, not to mention the death knell for “New Urbanism” on the Las Vegas Strip. Still, when one considers the collapse of the condo market, the slow, slow ramp-up of Crystals and the Harmon Hotel fiasco, MGM is getting out relatively unscathed.

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Torrid summer in Ohio; Kiddies for sports betting

We’ve been a busy bee of late. You can read our interview with Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment‘s Pacific viceroy, Bobby Soper, see our preview of Resorts World Las Vegas or look back on 2020, the year that wasn’t in gaming. Enjoy.

Ohio casinos are continuing their record pace, racing 22% ahead of June 2019. While play slackened a bit compared to May, casinos and racinos still grossed $197 million. Everyone was revenue-positive and Hollywood Columbus led the pack, winning $23 million and up 19%. Just shy of $23 million and climbing 30% was Jack Cleveland. Hollywood Toledo grossed $19 million, up 15%, and slumbering Hard Rock Cincinnati came to life with $19 million and a 17% boost. Just a hundred grand behind Hollywood Columbus was MGM Northfield Park, 11% up in a rare month out of first position. Scioto Downs leapt 26% to $19.5 million and Miami Valley Gaming hopped 22% to $18 million but the most dramatic gain was at Jack Thistledown, vaulting 46% to $17.5 million. Hollywood Dayton climbed 31% to $13 million, Hollywood Mahoning Valley was up 22% to $13.5 million and Belterra Park brought up the rear, gaining 8% to finish at $8 million.

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Maryland keeps booming; Penn panned

Gaming’s recovery continues unabated in the Free State. Maryland gambling revenues for June were $161.5 million, a 13% gain on 2019. $64 million of that went to MGM National Harbor, up 12% and hoarding 39.5% market share. Maryland Live chugged along with $58.5 million, a 19% gain—and 36% market share—and Hollywood Perryville booked $8 million for a 21% leap. Vaulting 29%, Ocean Downs won $9 million, while Rocky Gap Casino was up 12.5% to $6. Did Gary Loveman build Horseshoe Baltimore on an Indian burial ground? Alone among Maryland casinos it was revenue-negative. It grossed $17 million for a 9% decline. West Virginia casinos finally caught up with the 2019 pace, being only 1% down from that halcyon year. Slot winnings were flat, tables down 6%. At Hollywood Charles Town Races, revenues actually outpaced 2019 by 5%, with a 6% slot gain overcoming an 1% dip at the tables.

It’s highly uncommon in our experience for a Wall Street analyst to put a “sell” rating on a stock but that’s just what Deutsche Bank‘s Carlo Santarelli did to Penn National Gaming yesterday. Penn has been the darling of The Street ever since it eviscerated the company during the Great Shutdown, which did wonders for its margins. The stock is trading at $72/share and Santarelli put a $31 price target on it. Why? Primarily because he believes Penn’s Internet gambling operations and Barstool Sports are “considerably overvalued” relative to its performance so far. (Shades of DraftKings.) He’s also skeptical of forecasts that call for year after year of revenue growth when he sees an upcoming contraction, especially compared to lean-and-mean 2021. Not even the additions of Hollywood Perryville and two slot parlors in Pennsylvania alleviate his gloom. Penn has tantalized Wall Street with preannouncements of $1.5 billion in 2Q21 revenue, a bit of bare ankle that may have been intended to distract from the issuance of $400 million in new debt.

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Case Bets

Crown Resorts is in the soup again. Businessman and fugitive from justice Michael Gu allegedly used Crown Melbourne as a sieve through which to strain $8 million in Ponzi scheme money. “Authorities believe he conned clients by claiming he was buying a portfolio of commercial property in Australia. In fact, he and his CFO, Harry Huang, were misappropriating investor funds to pay other investors while living the high life, according to a report by administrator KPMG,” reports Casino.org. Where did the money go? Try two Lamborghinis, a Rolls Royce Wraith, a Ferrari GTB, an Audi Q7 and a McLaren Spider. Gu also deposited ill-gotten funds at Crown Melbourne over a three-year period and withdrew them for gambling.

In no position to appear lax, Crown thundered, “We are treating this matter seriously and have immediately launched an investigation into the allegations. Crown will ensure regulators, the royal commissions, and other relevant authorities are informed and updated as required.” The company had better get on the stick. Australian regulators have discovered that Crown Melbourne helped move $120 million out of China over a four-year period, a red flag if ever there was one, especially since the money was used to book nonexistent hotel rooms.

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