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Bally’s we hardly knew ye; IGT bets big on lotteries

Shares of Bally’s Corp. sprang to $36.76 apiece yesterday on the news that the company’s largest stockholder wants to take Bally’s private for $2 billion. Hedge fund Standard General—founded by Bally’s Chairman Soo Kimis offering $38/share for the mini-major and selling the idea as a way of ameliorating risk (not that we thought of BALY as a particularly perilous play). Standard General already owns 21% of Bally’s.

Normally we would frown upon such a proposal, as private equity has a mostly disastrous record in the casino industry. However, the presence of Kim in both camps is reassuring. He put the current Bally’s management team into place and is likely to keep giving them his ear. The LBO would be financed by the sale and lease-back of unspecified assets. Jefferies Equities analyst David Katz said Bally’s would go for cheap, as the offer didn’t price in the value of the Gamesys acquisition: “With the current market context for dismissing value on North American digital opportunities, the offer is opportunistic.”

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Sports betting claims first casualty; “Scam” at Caesars?

Online sports betting has evidently proven too rich for Wynn Resorts‘ blood. The New York Post reports that Wynn “is looking to unload its online sports-betting business at a steep discount as the fledgling niche faces painful losses from stiff taxes and costly promotions needed to lure customers.” Wynn Interactive, valued at $3.2 billion, is being peddled for $500 million. This will come as bad news to Shaquille O’Neal, who unloaded his share of the Sacramento Kings in return for becoming a “brand ambassador” for Wynn, which also built a ritzy Las Vegas broadcasting studio to showcase its product. There were rumblings from the top that Wynn and OSB were an uncomfortable fit. CEO Matt Maddox had told investors, “The market is really not sustainable right now. Competitors are spending too much to get customers. And the economics are just not something that we’re going to participate in.”

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Weekends without Adele

As all of Christendom now knows, one Adele Atkins of Tottenham has been forced to cancel/reschedule 13 weeks of shows at Caesars Palace. When Adele signed for this gig, in early December, it was regarded as the showbiz coup of the year. Well, it’s still the biggest story going but not in a way that Caesars Entertainment intended. As the timeline makes obvious, Weekends with Adele was hurried into production, despite being envisioned on a scale (100 backup singers) for which the word ‘lavish’ seems inadequate. So the events of the last 72 hours should be a surprise to very few outside the Caesars C-suite. Maybe you can get away with this in Reno, but this is the big time now.

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Adele fiasco at Caesars; Trouble for Sands in Florida

Resorts World Las Vegas, we’ll see your Celine Dion health-scare postponement and raise you an Adele cancellation at Caesars Palace. The British megastar’s team has, like so much of the human race, contracted Covid-19 and is not physically capable of grinding out a Vegas residency at this point. We wish them a speedy recovery—and a contract extension. There are skeptics about the matter, asserting that the show simply wasn’t ready and that there would have been empty seats galore (we blame the greedy secondary market). Indeed, nixing 13 weekends of shows on account of Covid-19 seems an extreme reaction. Did Caesars Entertainment rush this show to market to one-up Resorts World? It kinda looks that way. Tickets sellers seem to have sensed this, judging from a precipitate, last-minute drop in prices.

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Warm breeze in Atlantic City; Indiana heats up

December brought an acceleration in most forms of New Jersey gambling revenue. Atlantic City casinos managed a 1.5% increase over the end of 2019 but sports betting revenue dropped 11% year/year, blamed on low hold. Sticking close to home, Internet gamblers lost 34% more than last year, the brightest spot on the horizon (unless you were a player). Boardwalk grosses were $212 million, i-gaming yielded an impressive $133 million and sports betting engendered $59 million. Slot revenue was flat at $150.5 million on 2% less coin-in while table games captured $59.5 million (+5%) on 10.5% less wagering. Borgata stabilized at -1% or $54 million, too late to save Melonie Johnson‘s presidency. Hard Rock Atlantic City vaulted 37% to $35.5 million while Ocean Resort climbed 27% to $26.5 million.

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Borgata behaving badly; Headless body in topless car

On the “george” side of the ledger we find Bally’s Atlantic City, which is offering room rates starting at $29/night through February 28, albeit on “select nights.” Hey, it’s a terrific way to raise awareness of the new-look Bally’s. As for the Stiff of the Week, the winner is Borgata. Let our Atlantic City correspondent tell it: “MGM Borgata is getting cheaper by the day. [My wife] has reservations for a Christmas show this Wednesday night, but we now have a family night out scheduled. When she called MGM yesterday, she was told next week was ‘fully booked’ for comp tickets, and the host she spoke with told her to contact Ticketmaster to buy her own tickets. With 75,000++ tier points (my estimate is somewhere between $7 to $9 per point). She told the host the tickets were only $12 each (seems like a ‘high quality’ show), and she already had tickets for this week. Didn’t matter to them (she doesn’t have any assigned host at MGM).” Bad Borgata!

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MGM resurgent in Maryland; More Mega-Jottings

November was another terrific month for Maryland casinos, as revenues picked up a bit from October, accumulating 14% more than in November 2019.. (If inflation is so bad, where do Marylanders find all this money with which to gamble, one wonders? But anyway … ) After a month out of the top spot, MGM National Harbor was back at #1, grossing $68 million, a 26% leap by the lion. Maryland Live was not quite so buoyant, up 10% to $58 million. Horseshoe Baltimore tumbled 15% to $16 million, remaining the problem child of Caesars Entertainment. Business was slightly slower at Rocky Gap Resort, up 11.5% to $5 million, while Ocean Downs cantered +22.5% to $6.5 million and Hollywood Perryville gained 22% to $7 million. Despite flat slot revenues, West Virginia casinos garnered 3% more last month, on the strength of robust (+18%) table win. Hollywood Charles Town Races was particularly fortunate, climbing 4% at the slots and 32% at the tables.

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Chicago reveals all; Rumblings from Macao; Riot in Vegas

Rivers Chicago at McCormick

The City of Chicago unveiled the applications for its casino license late Friday, effectively burying it at the end of a news cycle, in another triumph for Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) and her administration. The five submissions “are in line with our vision to develop a world-class experience in Chicago that will drive significant economic growth and employment opportunities for our communities,” said Lightfoot. The pitches break down alphabetically as follows:

Bally’s Corp. #1: To be sited at the Chicago Tribune Publishing Center, “an economic sleeping giant,” this $1.8 billion, two-phase project would include 100 hotel suites, 20,000 square feet of expo space, three restaurants—curated by Paul Kahan and Erick Williams—and rooftop “green space.” The casino would feature 95 table games and 2,700 slots. A “Best of Chicago” theme is planned. In a dig at its rivals, Bally’s wrote, “As our flagship property, Bally’s Chicago has no conflicting interest in the Chicago market. We don’t operate, own or partially own casino properties located elsewhere within the Chicagoland market. Simply put, Bally’s is conflict-free.” Even so, the company noted that it is already licensed in the Prairie State. Bally’s predicts a 20% ROI on the project (and if it doesn’t reach it, won’t build Phase II), which will have 25% Black and Latino ownership. This plan really needs to pencil out economically, as most of the amenities are in the second stage.

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Wynn spits out SPAC; Penn slammed; Indiana impresses

Headlines are still being made by Wynn Resorts this week. Shockwaves continue to reverberate from CEO Matt Maddox‘s surprise retirement, nearly one year ahead of schedule. His departure comes at a delicate point in negotiations with Macao (or should we say ‘dictations’?), where Maddox has been a key player. Also, it has been revealed that he was thoroughly investigated in 2020 by the board over an anonymously filed allegation of misconduct, phoned in over an employee hotline. Had Maddox failed to divorce himself from the boys-will-be-boys culture of Steve Wynn? We’ll never know and he seems to have been cleared of the charge. But still “It’s all very curious,” as Jefferies analyst David Katz said.

In other news, Wynn Resorts’ retrenchment on the i-gaming and online sports betting front began taking concrete shape. In a curt SEC filing, Wynn let it be known that a merger of Wynn Interactive with special acquisition company Austerlitz I is kaput. “While somewhat surprising, the tea leaves were present in the days leading up to the announcement … and WYNN announced that it was pivoting its strategy in sports betting and iCasino, given the irrational customer acquisition behavior they see taking place in the market,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli. “WYNN noted that it expected 4Q21 losses from the iGaming segment to be considerable ($103 mm 3Q21 loss), and we imagine, 4Q21 losses will exceed those experienced in the 3Q21, given programming of marketing and the busier NFL season.” Santarelli concluded that termination of the JV “could be construed favorably.” Especially for Craig Billings, CEO of Wynn Interactive, who wouldn’t have much to do were he not moving up to the top job at Wynn.

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Sands: From bad to worse; Musk subway system approved for Vegas

Wall Street analysts were frankly underwhelmed by Las Vegas Sands‘ third quarter. Now that the company is wholly reliant upon the afflicted Macao and Singapore markets that’s hardly surprising. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff was pretty blunt, calling Macanese cash flow “barely positive in September,” swinging from a negative August, while characterizing Marina Bay Sands as a “locals” casino these days. (Ouch!) At least Singapore shows signs of easing up on international travel. “In terms of when travel mobility between Mainland China and Macau eases, there is no visibility on when this occurs, given China’s seemingly zero COVID-19 case tolerance; our best sense is that the earliest this takes place is sometime after the Beijing Olympics in February.” It does not help that the Macanese vaccination rate is an unimpressive 50%. At least there were no signs of new regulations upon Macao’s casinos, which is some comfort.

Investment in digital gaming “will likely be small” at least until Pacific Rim cash flow improves. Ditto share repurchases. Sands has $5.6 billion worth of powder that it’s keeping dry. The future, as Greff sees it, is one of sequential improvements “but not a heroic one.” That means mass-market gaming reaching only 60% of 2019 levels next year and VIP play an anemic 35%. By 2023, mass play should be back to 95% of normal but VIPs will still be lagging at half their pre-pandemic level, further validation of Sands’ mass-market strategy.

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