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Bullish for Boyd; Abbott does Texas two-step; D.C. remorse

Bad economy? Not if you’re Boyd Gaming. The regional giant significantly improved third-quarter income, from $843 million in 3Q21 to $877 million this year. Said CEO Keith Smith, “Continuing into October, customer spending has been very consistent with the trends we’ve seen throughout this year. While there are clearly headwinds in the economy, we haven’t seen any meaningful change in our customers’ behavior.” Rated play was up 5%, compensating for a faling-off of unrated, stimulus-driven spending. Hotel revenue was also up 5% and occupancies up 6%, those rooms being filled with what Smith characterized as high-value guests (10% higher gaming win). Food and beverage was a revenue geyser, jumping 11% and nowhere was business better than in Sin City’s Downtown, where earnings leapt 17.5% to $49.5 million, driven by the reopening of Main Street Station and by the return of business from Hawaii, a Boyd mainstay.

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How Much Should I Lose Before I Quit?

I’ve been asked variations of this question more than one hundred times over the years. Sometimes phrased as, “If I lose $100 (or some other number), should I give up for the day?”

My answer usually was some form of the following:

  1. Only play when you have the advantage. If the house has the edge, don’t play. It’s fairly easy to calculate in video poker whether you have the edge or not. In general, if you don’t know if you’re the favorite or not, you’re not.
  1. My answer assumes you have sufficient bankroll, actual and psychological, to ride it out. How to calculate how much bankroll you need is a discussion for another day.
  1. Are you still playing alertly?
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Vegas scores own-goal; Housing slowdown begs casino growth

In their rush to book a Formula One racing event, Las Vegas city fathers have intentionally or otherwise conducted a 20,000-person human sacrifice in the form of a forfeited convention. Congratulations, Sin City, you’ve just lost the 2023 NAR NXT, a major conference of Realtors. Your loss shall be Anaheim‘s gain. Let’s let the official press release tell the story, shall we?

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Upsurge in Louisiana; Stitt stiffed; Fubo Sportsbook folds

In a major reversal of fortune, Louisiana casino revenue vaulted 18.5% over September 2021. Foot traffic rose 41.5%, which more than made up for thriftier gamblers: On average they lost 16% less per player. It helped the year/year comparison that Louisiana in autumnal 2o21 was still reeling from Hurricane Ida. However, even compared to the previous peak (2019) the numbers were 3% higher. Even sports betting is showing signs of life, with $32 million in revenue derived from handle of $207.5 million.

Not all markets benefited. Baton Rouge was in the doldrums with even L’Auberge Baton Rouge (pictured) flat at $13 million. Belle of Baton Rouge tumbled 21% to $1 million and Hollywood Baton Rouge slipped 10% to $4 million. Lake Charles saw a bonanza though, with Golden Nugget rocketing 41% to $32 million, past L’Auberge du Lac‘s $30 million (+14%), while Delta Downs gained 12.5% to achieve $13.5 million. Boyd Gaming‘s two rural properties fared poorly, however, with Amelia Belle sinking 10% to $3 million and Evangeline Downs down 12.5% to $6 million.

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Las Vegas Sands blossoms in Singapore, challenged in NYC

Cash flow at Vegas-less Las Vegas Sands during the third quarter came in far above Wall Street‘s expectations, driven by “accelerating” business at Marina Bay Sands. As Credit Suisse analyst Ben Chaiken reported, “Macau is still largely uncertain pending the travel/COVID policies within China.” Still, he thinks a speedier-than-anticipated recovery in Singapore bodes well for Macao eventually. Once the government gets its act together, that is. He felt that at its current $36.50 a share, LVS stock is fairly priced, even a bargain when one looks to the future. For instance, when Shanghai denizens are allowed back into Macao (where they have represented 55% of visitation), favorable monetary demographics bode well for the premium mass-market segment, the new must-have customers in the enclave.

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Saturation in Pennsylvania; Makeover for Venelazzo

Adding more and more casinos isn’t ‘growing the pie’ in Pennsylvania. Instead, the bottom fell out of September’s numbers, which were 8% below 2019 ones (i.e., the good old days). Against last year, they were 1% lower, for a tally of $280 million. Parx Casino, the Keystone State’s only smoke-free gambling den, was 5% off last year’s pace but still was rolling in dough to the tune of $49 million. Next best in the Philadelphia market was Philadelphia Live, having picked itself up off the canvas, posting a 1.5% gain to $18.5 million. Rivers Philadelphia (above) fell 10% to $17 million, Harrah’s Philadelphia slid 11% to $13 million and Valley Forge Resort brought up the rear with $11 million, a 5% slippage. Outstate, the runaway winner was Wind Creek Bethlehem, up 2% to $43 million and a great success story for tribal gaming.

In the Pittsburgh area, Rivers Pittsburgh clobbered the competition with $30 million (-3%), as Hollywood Meadows also ceded 3% to hit $16 million and Pittsburgh Live gained 1.5% for $9 million. Smokers flocked back to Mount Airy, which jumped 9.5% to $17 million, whilst Penn National tumbled 11.5% to $14 million. Presque Isle Downs was down 4% to $10 million, Lady Luck Nemacolin plunged 17.5% to $2 million, Hollywood York vaulted 20% to $9 million and newbie Hollywood Morgantown contributed $5 million. Returning to Philadelphia Live for a moment, since 2019 it has cost Harrah’s 34% of its revenue and Rivers Philadelphia 28%, while leaving Parx unaffected. Really, how wise was it to site five casinos in the greater Philly area? Not very.

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Putting Bills Into a Machine

Before playing a video poker machine, I typically load it with $500 or $1,000 in bills or tickets. I do this for a number of reasons:

  1. I keep records of how much I win or lose each day. It’s easier for me to remember round numbers. If I’m playing a $2 game, ($10 a play), it’s common to be up or down several hundred dollars in a session. If I add another hundred-dollar bill as needed, it can be difficult to remember whether it’s four or five of those so far.

    For each additional bill, I could record it on my phone (I use the Notes app on my iPhone), but I can keep thousand-dollar increments straight more easily. If I go in for $3,000 or more in a session, I write each $1,000 play as I go.
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Atlantic City slows, Massachusetts doesn’t; Mega-Jottings

Atlantic City casinos grossed $252 million last month, up 1% year/year. A 2.5% hop in slot revenue ($186.5 million) on 1% more coin-in more than made up for a 2% dip in table win ($63.5 million) on 5% lower wagering. Borgata was comfortably in front with $62 million (+3.5%), outdistancing Hard Rock Atlantic City‘s $44 million (+6%) and Ocean Casino Resort‘s $30.5 million (+5%). Caesars Entertainment‘s threesome suffered a -15.5% reversal at Harrah’s Resort ($23 million) while Caesars Atlantic City was revenue-positive ($22.5 million, +2%), but Tropicana Atlantic City wasn’t ($23.5 million, -4%). Caesars’ official position is ‘Let’s wait and see when the $400 million capex kicks in’ but it may have to settle for middling status in a market dominated by relative newcomers. By contrast, Bally’s Atlantic City enjoyed a comeback month, leaping 13% to $16 million. Resorts Atlantic City sagged 3% to $17 million, while Golden Nugget enjoyed one of its better months, climbing 4% to $13.5 million, not enough to keep it out of last place.

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Caesars bares all; Midwest flattens; Adelson pledges neutrality

Landing a meeting with Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg, as well as several top execs, J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff didn’t hear so much as a peep about the mooted Las Vegas Strip asset sale, which he assumes is on hold “given present financing terms for sizable asset sales and that CZR retains until market conditions improve.” Even so, Reeg & Co. asserted that “demand remains strong” and that neither macroeconomic conditions (read: inflation) nor gas prices were putting a dent in business. They expect even better things from next year thanks to Formula One, which they say will bring in “hundreds of thousands” of tourists, just as it drove 300,000 people to visit Singapore. It will also shore up one of the traditionally weakest weekends of the year.

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