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Hope for Atlantic City, Crisis at Caesars

Rumors of Atlantic City‘s imminent demise—mostly spread by Big Gaming itself—proved exaggerated last month. Casino revenues ticked up 2.5% to $236.5 million. Table play, up 14%, carried the Boardwalk, as slots won 1% less. And one less weekend day didn’t even hurt. Golden Nugget had a bad month, however, falling 13% into last place with $10 million. Volatile Caesars Atlantic City, by contrast, had a bully March, shooting up 17.5% to $19.5 million. Scarcely outdone was Borgata, vaulting 15% to $67 million. Some of that evidently came at the cost of Hard Rock Atlantic City, down 4% to $42.5 million. Ocean Casino Resort rounded out the top three with $35.5 million, up 2%.

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Hypocrisy on the Boardwalk

Top casino executives convened in Atlantic City to predict fire, flood, famine and pestilence should New York City go ahead with casino megaresorts. Well, casinos are definitely coming to Gotham … less likely coming to New Jersey horse tracks. What does Big Gaming propose to do? Hold its breath until it turns blue? It sounds like a prelude to corporate welfare. Cue also the predictable refusal to ban smoking in A.C.’s casinos, the subject of protests outside Hard Rock Atlantic City, where the East Coast Gaming Conference was being held.

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Categorizing Hands

Bob Dancer

A friend and I were discussing 4-card straights with one deuce in NSU. The ones that are ever held are in the range of W567 – WTJQ. Each of the six possible ranges (i.e., W567, W678, W789, W89T, W9TJ, WTJQ) have different rules on which fifth cards require you to hold the deuce by itself, and which ones require you to hold the straight. Usually just the rank of the fifth card matters, but there are two separate cases where it matters whether that fifth card is suited with one of the other cards in the hand.

As an example, with W567, if the fifth card is an A, K, or Q, you hold the bare deuce. If it’s a J or a T, you hold W567. If it’s a 9, 8, 4, 3, you hold the 5-card straight. If it’s a 5, 6, or 7, you hold the 3-of-a-kind. And if it’s another deuce, you simply hold both deuces and discard the other three cards.

The exact rules for these hands are found in the Dancer/Daily NSU strategy card and Winner’s Guide. I’m not planning on going over all of the rules today — but the chart at the bottom, courtesy of Jimmy Jazz, covers the subject well.

My friend asked me how I practiced these hands using WinPoker. 

I use the fixed card feature in the advanced hand section. I put the program in “Show” mode, so I’m just hitting the enter button and it’s either dealing me five new cards or telling me how to play the cards that were previously dealt. I key in, perhaps, 2♠ 5♠ 6♦ 7♣ and let the computer randomly select the fifth card for me. While I’m going to be dealt lots of 3-of-a-kinds and 5-card straights, I’m going to get several where the fifth card is a T, J, Q, K, or A — and in this last set of cards, it won’t take me long to notice that when the fifth card is a T or J, the computer holds the W567, and when the fifth card is an A, K, or Q, the computer just holds the deuce.

Once I have these mastered, I change the 5♠ to perhaps an 8♥ and continue. This time I’m practicing W678 hands.

My friend nodded and said his brain didn’t work that way. In his mind, he saw 2♠ 5♠ 6♦ 7♣ K♠ as unique in terms of the suits of all the cards and the position all the cards were in. 

I was flabbergasted! Letting the deuce and the king be any suit, and the 5, 6, and 7 be different suits from one another (but possibly the same suit as the deuce and/or the king), we have 384 different combinations of these five cards. And since there are 120 different ways for these five cards to be displayed in the five positions, this means 46,080 permutations for ways to display this “one” hand. If my friend had to learn each of these 46,080 hands separately (instead of just once), then video poker is a much more difficult game for him than it is for me!

And further, I group W567 where the last card is an A, K, or Q as one thing to remember. Perhaps my friend has to remember all 138,240 permutations separately! I can’t believe this is the case for him — because, after all, W567 hands are only one of many hands to master. Of the 2.6 million possible hands (2,598,960, actually), that number doesn’t include the 120 different ways each of these hands can be displayed. Surely, he doesn’t attempt the task of memorizing what to do on each of the 311,875,200 cases for every 52-card game.

My advice to him was to learn to categorize. That combination is a 3-card royal, for example, and that one is a 4-card straight flush. In NSU, 3-card royals are all treated the same as each other — but that isn’t the case for many other games. Similarly, a consecutive 4-card straight flush is played the same as a 4-card straight flush with one gap, but that’s not always the case in other games. 

If all 4-card flushes are treated the same as each other in a particular game, that’s the way I learn them. If a 4-card flush with one high card is played differently than a 4-card flush with two high cards in another game (such as 9-7 Double Bonus), that’s the way I categorize them when I’m playing that game.

I only concentrate on penalty cards when they matter. In 9-6 Double Double Bonus, for example, KQJK9 is played differently than KQJKT, so when I’m playing that game, I pay attention to straight penalties to KQJ, but not to KQT, where they don’t matter strategically.

For each game, I’m trying to learn the fewest number of things I can that will let me play the game perfectly. If you want to know which categories I recommend, they are simply the ones used on the Dancer/Daily strategy cards and Winner’s Guides. 

Will this work for you? I’m not sure. It depends on the way your brain works. I’ve trained my brain to work efficiently at playing video poker well. Or perhaps I was born with a brain that allows me to play video poker well. Probably some sort of combination between the two. But whatever the type of brain you have going in, I’m confident that it can be trained to work better at individual tasks. And if playing video poker well is a task at which you wish to do well, then I’m pretty sure you can get better than you are now.

I know I can get better. Which is why, after being a player for more than 30 years, I still study before I make a major play.

I was discussing this article with Jimmy Jazz, and he showed me a chart he made when he was first studying 4-card straights with one deuce in this game. While the information in the chart is exactly the same as is found in the Dancer/Daily strategy card and Winners Guide for this game, the chart is prepared well. Possibly some of my readers will find Jimmy’s presentation easier to understand. So, I asked for permission to show this chart to you, and Jimmy graciously consented.

ST4 with one deuce in NSU

Each of the six rows represent individual hands.

Key:
Gray: unsuited cards dealt with one deuce

Light Blue: If this is fifth card, hold all five cards

Brownish/Orange: If this is fifth card, hold ST4

Yellow: If this is fifth card, hold deuce by itself

Violet: If this card is suited with one of the cards in gray boxes, hold deuce by itself. If this card is unsuited with the cards in gray box, hold deuce by itself

Gray – 3 cards dealt in addition to deuce

Orange –  ST4 is this is 5th card

Yellow – Deuce only if this is 5th card

Blue – Hold straight if this is 5th card

Purple – if 5th card is unsuited w/other 3 ST4, else deuce

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A Mild Vegas Recovery Ahead?

First, the good news. That “inclusive pricing” strategy that the Las Vegas Strip filched from Downtown is working. The bad news is that it will probably be quickly abandoned, turning a promising recovery in Las Vegas into an anemic one, at best. Given all the misguided economic “policy” coming out of Washington, D.C., a nascent Vegas bounce-back could yet be smothered in the crib. It’s not like those fellows ever bankrupted a casino, is it? Oh, wait …

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Quit While You’re Ahead?

Bob Dancer

In my February 24 blog, I wrote that earlier this year I hit four royal flushes on an 11-day trip to Harrah’s Cherokee — and the four royals spanned all four suits — clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades — although not in that order. Within a few hours of the posting of the blog, a reader named Mike (actually, his name is listed as “mike,” but I’m going to exercise my author’s prerogative and refer to him with a capitalized first letter) posted three separate times that since I was over-royaled, I should quit gambling or I will surely give it all back. 

I responded to his posts by saying that I would discuss his theory at length soon — and today’s post is that response. 

Mike’s “Quit While You’re Ahead” philosophy is one of the two most popular money management theories out there. The other theory is that when you get ahead you should keep going so as to ride the winning wave as long as it lasts.

These two theories contradict each other. One says when you get ahead you should quit. The other says when you get ahead you should keep going. They can’t both be right.

But they can both be wrong — and my belief is that this is the case. Both theories are wrong because neither one addresses the key factor for gambling success. That key factor is: Are you the favorite to win or not?

If the house is favored to win, then Mike’s theory makes some sense — sort of. Under this environment, you will lose in the long run, whether you are currently over-royaled or not. A better strategy, in my opinion, is to not play at all in this situation.

If, on the other hand, you have the advantage in this gambling proposition, and you have the bankroll to survive the swings, then continuing to bet will lead to financial gains in the long run — again, whether you are currently over-royaled or not.

So the question becomes — am I the favorite to win at Harrah’s Cherokee playing $5 NSU Deuces Wild? I’ve been through this math in previous columns and suffice it to say I’m positive that I have a not-insignificant advantage while playing there. For practical purposes, the advantage is only available for those players who play one of a few varieties of five-coin $5 video poker which adds up to $25 a hand. One of those games is NSU Deuces Wild. There are others. There are also $5 video poker games there where the player does not have the advantage.

One of the key aspects to success at gambling is having the bankroll to survive the swings of the game you are playing. The swings for $5 NSU are not trivial. I’ve had losing trips where I’ve lost more than $20,000. For many players, losses of that size would be disastrous. I’m fortunate enough to have the bankroll to be able to fade those swings.

When Mike talks about me being over-royaled, he seems to believe there’s a video poker scorekeeper in the sky whose job it is to even things out. I don’t believe such a scorekeeper exists. Every hand of NSU I play gives me a 1-in-43,456 chance of connecting on a royal — whether I’ve already had many royals this (week, month, year, lifetime, whatever) or if I’ve never hit a royal at all. How many royals I’ve hit, and how recently, do not affect my 1-in-43,456 chance of collecting a royal on the very next hand I play. 

It’s possible that Mike doesn’t believe the last sentence of the previous paragraph. I’ve based my career on the assumption that IGT machines have random number generators that deal the cards fairly — meaning each unseen card has an equal chance of appearing next. While there have been times my results have been luckier than average (the four royals in 11 days is the most recent example of this) and other times when my results are pretty bad for a period of time, over time the math has worked out. 

I never know how long a winning streak will last. I never know how long a losing streak will last. What I can usually figure out, however, is whether I have the advantage or not and whether I have the bankroll to survive the swings. And when I have both of those things, I’m going to continue to play.

It’s possible Mike doesn’t have access to games where he has the advantage — or the skill and bankroll to play those games if he did have access to them. That could lead to his “Quit While You’re Ahead” belief. And that belief may be relevant in the world he plays in. But that doesn’t mean that people who can find good games should be subject to his belief system.

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Indecent Behavior

If there were any lingering doubt that the Nevada Gaming Control Board thinks it works on behalf of the casinos, yesterday’s disgraceful hearing left no doubt. In particular, resident NGCB doofus George Assad threw out his back carrying water for Penn Entertainment. In an unprecedented display, the injudicious Assad basically accused an applicant of perjury. Alleged money launderers have been treated with greater deference by the Control Board.

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Mixed Signals in Vegas

Luxor Buffet—Good Spread, Too Bad Otherwise 5

There’s a fundamental flaw to Las Vegas‘ “Soak the Rich, Screw the Poor” business model. Somebody has to fill that preponderant number of hotel rooms (over 154,660) and gambling positions (too many to count). And the “Epstein class” isn’t going to stay at Circus Circus. But there’s hope. Maybe it’s recognition of our K-shaped economy, so called for the widening gap between rich and poor it manifests. Or, more likely, it’s the one-two punch of customer discontent and adverse media coverage of things like $13 candy bars at MGM Grand. Either way, there are signs that Big Gaming is finally waking up to the repulsive, anti-value message that Sin City has latterly presented to the public.

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