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Endorsement Retracted

Letter from Steve Forte Re: Blackjack Ace Prediction

by Steve Forte
(From Blackjack Forum XXIV #2, Spring 2005)
© 2005 Blackjack Forum

Some months back I was asked to endorse a new book on Ace Prediction by David McDowell.

Not being an active player, I first declined and suggested that the book was better reviewed by professional players. I was asked again. Given a minor business relationship with Michael Dalton (he sells my video series), and some limited, albeit enjoyable correspondence with the author, I acquiesced.

I flipped through the book quickly, noting a lengthy history of the strategy and what appeared to be an exhaustive mathematical/computer analysis. My first impressions were good. I then randomly arrived on a photo of a sorted deck with a reference to me and a related strategy. Having never talked with the author about this reference, I read this section quickly, and to be perfectly honest, the reference was taken completely out of context and I was puzzled by the author’s application.

So I then flipped to some of the endorsements and noticed a list of icons in the blackjack world. Since I really didn’t have the time to read the book carefully, I blindly jumped to the conclusion that, after 20 plus years, someone had finally written a dedicated, quality book on ace tracking.

Now, after looking over some of the analysis and comments submitted by Arnold Snyder, and going back to the book to review some of the material, I suspect that I may be guilty of (a) trying to be a nice guy and (b) falling into a common trap often seen in gambling literature: that of endorsing a product not read carefully by the endorser, or endorsing a product more strongly than it truly deserves.

Aside from my personal feelings that the author’s intentions are good, Arnold Snyder’s position is very strong. It’s also very compelling as he backs up his opinion with substance. A careful reread of Ace Prediction does reveal some oddities regarding the fundamentals of applying the strategy, some overly optimistic bet expectations, and win rates where none appear to exist. To over-rate the profit potential of a strategy or system can, of course, be very dangerous and costly to the typical player.

It’s for all of these reasons that it makes perfect sense to challenge the viability of the strategy as presented. It’s good for everyone: authors, experts, mathematicians and, most importantly, the players. After all, with any book written for the player, ultimately, only one criteria really matters: Does the strategy win?

How this notably different view of this work plays out in the blackjack community should prove to be a valuable lesson to us all. It will be especially interesting to see if any other endorsers “step up to the plate” after taking a closer look at the research. ♠

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Telephone Gambling Scams

Reach Out and Fleece Someone

by Arnold Snyder
(From Blackjack Forum XII #4, December 1992)
© 1992 Blackjack Forum

Technology continues to oblige our laziness. The latest gambling craze to sweep the country is betting over the telephone lines. Short on cash? No problem. You don’t even need a credit card. A functioning telephone will do. Just pour yourself a tall, cool one, sit back in your robe and slippers, and dial 1-900-SWINDLE.

Most states have strict laws against telephone “book-making.” The penalties for operating a betting service by phone are stiff, and often include various charges of conspiracy and racketeering. Interstate bookmaking will bring in the Feds. Anyone taking phone wagers on horse races or sporting events had better be ready to fly by night if necessary.

A better idea, however, born of modern technology, would be to take bets via the new, legal, electronic method. This allows you to run your gambling operation with impunity, advertise on TV, and even hire celebrities to promote your business. No one is using this methodology yet to book sports or horse races, but it may be only a matter of time.

I don’t know how long these legitimate(?) telephone gambling lines have been in operation because I don’t watch TV much. Until Alison and I moved into this apartment building, as temporary living quarters while our home is being rebuilt, we never had cable TV. The first ad I saw for one of these operations was on a cable station; it was called “Spelling Bee,” or something like that.

Here’s how it worked, as well as I can remember: You dial the 900 number advertised and you will be given a spelling test over the phone. If you can spell 21 words correctly in 6 minutes, you win $1000. The fine print at the bottom of the screen informs you that you will be charged a few bucks per minute for the call. So, in effect, you are wagering $20 or so (depending on how much talking before and after your spelling test is necessary to transfer name\address\etc.) for the chance to win $1000.

Are you a good speller? How fast can you correctly spell on a touchtone keypad?

Ha!

I’m willing to bet I could get out my Webster’s Unabridged and easily find hundreds of words in the English language that would rarely all be spelled correctly by anyone: kilooersted, ouananiche, stannary, craquelure, thremmatology, uintaite, vitelline, miscible, pentaerythritol, narghile, yttrotantalite, zinziberaceous, zygapophysis, quinquereme, phthalocyanine, fissiparous, lophodont, gneissoid, xenodochium, tshernosem, pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis. That’s 21 words from my Webster’s Encyclopedic Unabridged Dictionary of the English Language. Try them on your touchtone keypad. Six minutes.

To run an operation like this for maximum profit, however, the trick would be to keep players on the line for the full 6 minutes. You want to start with easy words, but long ones, so that callers stay in the game while charges are mounting. I suspect many players never even get to the truly difficult words. No mistakes. They just run out of time.

It’s hard for me to view an operation like this as anything but a scam. Players may think they’re wagering $20 to win $1000, but anyone dumb enough to think he can spell every word in the English language is more akin to a mark in a carny game than a gambler.

One of the most sophisticated telephone gambling operations currently running is Monte Hall’s “Let’s Make A Deal.” Yes, that’s the Monty Hall of TV fame. If you haven’t seen the now white-haired Monte on TV lately, you must not be flipping through all 438 cable stations at 3 a.m. looking for hot TV gambles.

Here’s how it works:

You call up Monte’s 900 number, at a cost of $2.95 per minute, in an effort to win the $2000 grand prize. (The fine print on the TV ad informs you that the “average” call lasts 6 minutes.) Gee, thought I, for only $2.95 a minute I can play Let’s Make A Deal with Monte Hall. A dream come true! I don’t even have to dress like a gorilla in a tutu!

I couldn’t resist. As soon as the ad ended, I reached for the cordless phone.

Alison tried to hold me back. “Arnold,” she said, “Think of your reputation. You’re a respected authority on gambling. If word gets around that you’re playing Let’s Make A Deal by telephone, you’ll be ruined. This has got to be worse than keno, and it’s probably worse than the California Lottery.”

“It’s all research and development,” I defended myself, dialing 1-900-420-4544. (Yes, that’s the real number. Try it!)

I was greeted by Monte Hall’s recorded voice. There was a band playing. He was excited. It was just like TV! My first $2.95 was wasted answering personal questions – phone number, age, sex, and listening to various announcements, such as the Beverly Hills address where I could obtain a written copy of the rules of the game.

Then Monte Hall’s recorded voice came on to get down to business. First, I had to correctly answer a question: “Which president was the Lincoln Memorial named after?” Monte quizzed me. I’m not going to tell you the correct answer, only that I answered correctly. (Okay, here’s a hint: It’s not Jimmy Carter. And, yes, he was one of the choices.)

Monte then informed me that because I had answered the question correctly, I could now choose between Door Number One, Door Number Two, and Door Number Three. Wow! Just like on TV! Using the touch tone pad as directed (all questions are entered via touch tone), I chose a door… Big fanfare!

I won!

“Yes,” said Monte, “You’ve won a $15 bag of nickels, which we’ll send to you in the form of a check! Or, you can trade in that bag of nickels for a chance to win $25 by choosing what’s behind Door Number One, Door Number Two, or Door Number Three!” (Not verbatim, but you get the idea….)

I looked at my watch. I’d been on the line less than four minutes which meant that I was about three bucks to the good after subtracting my phone charges. I was tempted to quit while ahead. (I’m no gambler!) But I didn’t yet know how to collect my prize. I figured by the time I got this information, I’d just be breaking even. I chose another door…

Another big fanfare!

I’d won again!

“Yes,” said Monte, “You now have $25! Do you want to keep that $25 or go to Level Three, where behind Door Number One, Door Number Two, or Door Number Three there is $35?” He also reminded me again that if I made it all the way to Level Six, the Grand Prize would be $2000.

I looked at my watch.

Under five minutes.

I’m outta here.

As expected, another minute was wasted supplying me with my “Prize Code #” and the address where I was instructed to send a 3<$E1/2> x 5 inch postcard with my name, address, phone number, age and social security number, in order to claim my prize, which, I was informed, would take 8 to 10 weeks for delivery. Now, I must assume this operation is 100% legit, and that I will receive a check for $25 from Monte Hall in 8 to 10 weeks. This modest win, of course, will be offset by about $18 added to my phone bill.

But, let’s analyze this game mathematically, assuming it’s 100% legit. There are six levels of play, i.e., you must choose the correct door (one of three) six times in a row to win the $2000 grand prize. On the average, you will therefore win the grand prize once out of every 729 times you play (that’s 36), assuming you don’t quit early like I did.

Since the “average” call lasts 6 minutes, the cost of the average call is 6 x $2.95 = $17.70. 729 calls times $17.70 each = $12,903.30. So, in the long run you will win $2,000 for every $13,000(more or less) you spend in phone charges.

Alison was right. This is far worse than keno, and far worse than the California Lottery. Monte Hall’s “house” has about an 85% advantage (a sizeable portion of which is shared with the phone company).

It’s illegal to call a bookie and tell him you want to place a $10 bet on the 49’ers, yet it’s 100% legal for you to call up Monte Hall (or the “Spelling Bee,” or numerous other 900 number “games”) and bet your money (disguised as telephone charges) on far riskier propositions. Nor would your bookie take 8 – 10 weeks to pay you!

I asked Nelson Rose (author of Gambling and the Law) how this type of gambling operation could be legal in California. He explained to me that the operator must either offer an alternative method of playing which does not require any 900-line charges, or the game must have a “skill factor” – such as requiring the player to answer a question. Hmmm… I wonder how many contestants were stumped by that Lincoln Memorial brainteaser?

Now, I’m not opposed to legalizing phone betting, but somehow the current regulations strike me as less than fair to the player. The funny thing is that it would probably be possible to set up a sports betting or other traditional type of book-making operation if it were operated as a 900-line game with “prizes.”

In other words, if you cut the phone company in on your vigorish, then pass this charge on to your customers as part of the cost per minute for the call, and don’t forget to come up with a “skill” question to legitimize the payoff, then you’re a legal bookie! No illegal “bets” are made so long as it’s all just telephone charges!

Your customers, naturally, won’t like the lousy odds you’ll be forced to give, and many will abandon you for illegitimate bookies who offer fairer odds. But paying off the phone company is simply the price of legitimacy in today’s high-tech gambling world.

What I haven’t been able to figure out, unfortunately, is a way to offer electronic blackjack games over the phone. As soon as I iron out the bugs in this brainstorm, however, I intend to give Monte Hall a run for the money. ♠

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Blackjack Team Proposal

Business Plan for a Blackjack Team

by Bob Fisher
(From Blackjack Forum Vol. XVI #2, Summer 1996)
© 1996 Blackjack Forum

Some of my ideas regarding blackjack team play:

A major concern of most blackjack teams is being able to trust their teammates. Using people you already know well is fine; but, the problem is it takes a long time to get to know people which reduces the number of possible teammates. Then there’s the possibility of the casinos recognizing the teammates through guilt by association, plus problems such as being available, etc.

My idea for team play requires three kinds of people:

  • Type A: There are many people who have high-paying jobs or businesses that they can’t quit just to play blackjack. These people’s work, vacations, etc., take them to casino areas. They would like to supplement their income playing blackjack while they are in a casino area. They have the bankroll. Though they can be card counters, it isn’t necessary. Minimum requirements would be bankroll and blackjack basic strategy. They will only play for short periods (during their work-related trips/vacations).
  • Type B: These people will be card counters who live in a casino area. They are not bums and do have small bankrolls, but cannot play high stakes with low ruin for a decent win rate. Poker players who know how to count, or could learn, are good candidates. Minimum requirements would be blackjack basic strategy and card counting knowledge and a small bankroll.
  • Type C: These people would be middlemen to bring the other members of the blackjack team together. They would test and evaluate the prospective players. Applicants would contact the C players.

When an A player wants to go to a casino area, he calls the appropriate C player to let him know when he is coming. The C players contact the B players, trying to find 2 to 5 players that can join the A.

Prior to playing, the C player has the A and B players meet where and work out the details. Basically, the B players will play at several nearby tables, counting and making minimum bets. When they get a good count, they signal the A player who then joins that table unless playing successfully at one of the other tables.

Because the A player finds many more advantageous situations than he could if he played alone, he will except to win considerably more. Some of this extra win is shared with the B players, allowing the Bs to make more than they otherwise could with minimal risk and exposure. The B players shouldn’t expect to lose, but try to break even by leaving on very bad counts and raising their bets slightly on good counts. They should not use bet raises as signals to the A players to join the play. The B players keep their winnings and pay for their losses.

Since there is no commingling of money, honesty, though desirable, is not essential. Also, if the casino puts the A and B players together, the A player can have an entirely new set of B players on his next trip. The players can be constantly switched around, making putting them together difficult.

The B players also would not get burned out since they make minimum bets and use small spreads as they are only trying to break even or win small amounts. The casino may be further reluctant to harass B players if they give them other business such as poker or video poker. The A player would not be too concerned because he will not be a full time player and will travel a lot anyway, playing a few days here and there.

I don’t know of anyone who has suggested this idea of putting strangers together on a blackjack team before without the need to commingle money, and it’s associated problems. ♠

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The Low-stakes Professional Card Counter

Fast Action Jackson’s Distractions

by Arnold Snyder

(From Blackjack Forum Volume X #4, December 1990)
© Blackjack Forum 1990

A fixture at the blackjack tables of Las Vegas for almost a decade, Fast Action Jackson has never had much of a bankroll. Standing 5-foot-3 in his Western boots, what’s left of his hair slicked back over his tanned pate, like so many card counters I’ve met, overeducated and undercapitalized, he holds a masters degree in philosophy from some obscure east coast college. I don’t know if he’s ever been married. Every time I visit Vegas, he’s living with a different woman, always at her place. He’s not an easy guy to track down.

“I’m living proof, Bish,” he says, “that you can play your system perfectly, study your ass off, know more about fluctuations and standard deviation than most statisticians, have the persistence of Sisyphus, and still never make it into the big leagues. If you can’t take the flux, you can’t make the bucks. It’s that simple.”

I had asked him to write an article for Blackjack Forum on how a player with a small to moderate bankroll goes about surviving as a professional blackjack player.

“You don’t want that article,” he insisted. “It’s too depressing. I once went ten weeks sleeping in my car so I wouldn’t have to use my precious bankroll on such a luxury as rent money. I’ve lost two girlfriends who believed in me enough to invest in me at the wrong time. I don’t know what it is about women, Bish, but they get very irritable if you lose their paycheck a few times. Even when you finally pay ‘em back, it’s all over.”You alienate your friends. You take chances with advances on your credit cards. It’s a rotten life. Right now, I don’t owe anybody anything. The past two months have been great. I’ve dug out of yet another hole, saved my credit rating again. My bankroll is back up to six thou. Unfortunately, in this game, six thou is nothing. I could be flat broke two weeks from now.”

“The fact remains, Fast,” said I, “that you’ve been doing this for ten years. It may be a tough grind, but you’re making it. You make your living playing blackjack, and you’re not rich. My readers want to know how you do it.”Most of them aren’t wealthy, but they say they’re willing to work. What most often happens is they learn a system at home, build up their fantasies, then find out they can’t hack it in the casinos. The table conditions are lousy. They get heat when they start to win. And the casino environment is nerve-wracking—the noise, the smoke, the constant interruptions. I always tell them to play during off hours—weekdays, early mornings—in order to minimize the distractions. Am I right?”

“Wrong,” says Fast. “Casinos are designed for distraction. That’s their game. As soon as you take away the noise and the crowds and the booze, you’re not playing their game anymore, you’re letting them watch your game. You’ve got to keep in mind that what distracts you distracts them. As long as I’ve been playing in this town, my action is still welcome everywhere. That’s because I follow the crowds. That’s the only way to survive, to have staying power. But, Bish, it’s a rotten life. Believe me.”

I asked him if he had any favorite casinos. “My favorite casinos are always the busiest casinos,” he said. “Right now, in Vegas, the new stores are great. The Mirage. The Excalibur. The Rio. These places are attracting crowds. I used to like Caesars because that’s where the big money played. Money is a great distraction. Who’s going to look at my $50 bets when the george sitting next to me is betting table limit? It’s all over for Caesars now, what with the Mirage next door. Even the over/under won’t save them. Caesars is empty. You can’t play there anymore. They’re dying a slow death.

“The Rio may be off the strip, out there next to the Gold Coast, and they canned the liberal rules they opened up with. But they’ve still got good games and great crowds on the weekends. Plus they’ve got that hot double exposure.”

“Double exposure?” I asked. “At the Rio?”

“Not on the tables,” he explained. “I’m talking about the cocktail waitresses. You see, Bish, I’m a connoisseur of distractions. Just check ‘em out sometime. You’ll see what I mean. I order a lot of drinks when I play, and I spend a lot of time looking for the waitresses. It’s all part of the strategy. Drinking a lot of booze is very distracting. Counters don’t drink.”

“But doesn’t that affect your accuracy?” I asked.

“Not if you do it right,” he said. “There’s a trick to it. Always order a drink that comes with cream. Kahlua and cream. A toasted almond. You just never swizzle it. You can be damn sure the bartender doesn’t have time to stir it. The booze sits in the bottom of the glass. You drink the milk off the top. By the time you finish the milk, the waitress is bringing you a fresh drink. I’ll tell you my health has improved significantly since I started ordering so many drinks. Lots of calcium.”

“So, Fast,” says I, “Your advice to my readers who really want to enjoy that wonderfully romantic life of the professional card counter, where you lose your girlfriend only after you lose her paycheck, ever rejoicing that if you jeopardize your Diner’s Club membership, the collection agency probably won’t be able to find you since you’re sleeping in your car, all you have to do is play in the noisiest, most crowded casinos, order lots of drinks, and ogle the waitresses while playing?”

“That’s my secret,” he says. “And except for the double exposure, there’s not much fun in it.”

“Hmm…,” says I. “Have you ever stopped to consider that maybe the reason you haven’t made the big leagues is because the distractions are killing your game?”

He shrugged. “I know what I know,” he said. “And any big time pro would tell you the same thing I’m telling you. Maybe you should stop to consider that I’ve been making my living at this game for ten years, while you’ve been writing about it.”

Point well taken.

Advantage Jackson. ♠
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Fake ID for Card Counters

Fake ID: A Credit Card Under An Assumed Name

by Arnold Snyder
(From Blackjack Forum VIII #4, December 1988)
© Blackjack Forum 1988

[Note: This 1988 article is obsolete as far as the legality issues. Federal and state laws regarding identification became much stricter following 9/11 (2001). I’m including this article for historical purposes only. Loompanics Publishing, the fake ID specialists, have been out of business for decades. – A.S.]

In the last issue of Blackjack Forum, a correspondent (“Letters”) remarked that as a method of maintaining anonymity in the casinos, one might “… get a credit card under an assumed name. Some cards, such as Visa, permit this as a ‘second card’ provided the primary card holder assumes responsibility for the second user.” Blackjack Forum readers want to know:

How is this done?

Is this form of fake ID safe?

Is this form of false identification legal?

If you already have a credit card, it’s done very easily. You receive a solicitation by phone or in the mail from some out-of-state bank, offering you their Visa or Mastercard with a pre-approved line of credit. If you have a decent credit rating, you probably receive these solicitations frequently. If this is a mail solicitation, you can call the bank and say, “Gee, I’d like to thank you for preapproving me for your credit card, but I don’t realIy need another credit card right now. I was wondering if you’d send me a credit card in my nephew’s (or niece’s) name, who lives with me?”

They will answer, “Of course, if you will assume responsibility.”

You say, “I would like the card in his (or her) name, but I would like all billing and statements sent to me. I will be 100% responsible for paying the bills. But I don’t want my name on the card. I don’t want to have to co-sign for purchases. He (or she) is a student, with no credit history, and I would just like to set this up for emergencies.”

They will say, “No problem. What is your nephew’s (or niece’s) name?”

You will soon possess this credit card.

Now, as for the next two questions: is this safe, and, is this legal?

Well, the fact exists that you don’t have a nephew, or, if you do, you’re not him. The name you’ve given to the bank is phony. This may constitute fraud. You will find, however, that when you make reservations at a casino, using the card with the phony name, you will have no problem. If they run a check on the card, it’s valid. You will be known by your new name, no questions asked. In fact, you could have half a dozen valid credit cards in half a dozen different names — all, of course, from different banks — allowing you to be someone different at all of the casinos where you stay.

So long as you pay your bills, you will probably never have a problem with the bank. Even if it were somehow discovered that you had a credit card in an assumed name, it’s unlikely you’d ever be prosecuted for fraud, since no one would be able to prove any damages (again, assuming you pay your bills).

Various states have their own laws regarding fake l.D., its use, possession, etc. Most of these laws are designed to recover damages from defrauded parties. My advice, if you’re seriously considering this route, is to talk with your lawyer about possible repercussions in your state and/or other states where you may use such methods of protecting your identity for non-fraudulent purposes. There are also a couple of books in print that deal with this subject in depth — The Paper Trip I and The Paper Trip II.

The Paper Trip I was first published in 1971, then revised in 1984, and updated again in 1987. This book never mentions gambling or blackjack, but it answers many questions of importance to card counters with regards to using fictitious names, false l.D., etc. Much of this book is a “how-to” guide — i.e., how to obtain a birth certificate in a name other than your own; how to obtain a driver’s license, state l.D. card, passport, various and sundry membership cards, credit cards, university degrees, etc.

This book also discusses the issue of legality. It is not only possible, but relatively easy, for anyone to obtain multiple sets of authentic l.D., including driver’s licenses and credit cards, in various names. The Paper Trip has long been the classic “underground” reference work on this subject.

The Paper Trip II was first published in 1977, then updated in 1987. This is a companion guide to the above book for the serious paper tripper. Although the original book contains all you need to know to obtain new l.D., this book makes it a lot easier by providing state by state breakdowns of exactly where to write for vital records, the fees, etc.

There is also more information on obtaining social security cards, “counterfeit” I.D., and state by state laws regarding legal name changes. This book also contains various sample forms, a complete printout of the federal laws regarding the possession and use of identification and false identification, discussion of various state l.D. laws (including Nevada), etc. This book is recommended for authentic imposters only. Both books are published by Loompanics. ♠

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Losing Money on “Good” Rules?

Blackjack Rules: Every Rule Option is Good

by Arnold Snyder

(First published in Avery Cardoza’s Player Magazine)
© 2005 Arnold Snyder

A player recently emailed me asking if it was better if a casino allowed players to surrender, or if it was better if this was not allowed. He wrote: “Every blackjack player I know thinks this a great rule. But it seems to me that I give up a lot of hands I would have won. Now, I hardly ever surrender unless the cards are running really bad for me in a shoe. Why would casinos allow players to surrender if the house didn’t make money on it?”

Here’s something to remember: Every time a casino gives you an option, no matter what that option is, it can’t hurt your chances of winning unless you misplay the option. Let me give you a radical example. Every blackjack player has the option to hit a total of 20. Not that any of us would hit a 20, but we all have the option. Because we don’t hit our 20s, the option has no effect on us. We know how to play this option. We stand. If a casino suddenly posted signs that said, “Hitting 20s is not allowed,” no player would care.

So, hitting a 20 is an option that would hurt us if we exercised the option, since we’d bust 92% of the time, but in reality it doesn’t hurt anyone because no one exercises the right. If a casino posted a sign that said, “All players are now allowed to double down on 3-card hard 16s,” it wouldn’t matter. All intelligent players would recognize the option as an option that would be foolish to exercise. So an option can’t possibly hurt us unless we exercise it incorrectly. By definition, an option means we have the right to not exercise it.

Surrender, A Blackjack Rule with Great Value

Surrender is an option that, in fact, has real value when exercised correctly, and you don’t have to be a card counter to take advantage of it. Unfortunately for most players, it probably does hurt them more than it helps. In fact, I suspect from the email I got from the reader above that he was correct in his conclusion that he would have done better if he just didn’t surrender at all. His statement that he now only surrenders when the “cards are running really bad” is worrisome.

Surrender decisions have nothing to do with how the cards are running. The decision to play a hand or give it up, along with half the bet on it, should be based purely on math. And the major problem that many players have with this option is that they surrender way too frequently.

Some players will give up on almost any stiff total against any dealer high card. That has a huge cost to the player. Purely based on the math, do you know how often you should surrender any total of 12, 13, or 14?

Never.

It doesn’t matter if the dealer has a ten, an Ace, or any other upcard. And it doesn’t matter how the cards have been running. Purely based on the math, you will lose more money surrendering any of these hands than you’ll save by giving up half your bets.

The only hands you should ever surrender are hard 15 against a ten, or hard 16 against a ten or Ace. That’s it, as far as the math goes.

One player tried to argue with me once that if he had a hard 15, basic strategy was to hit it against any dealer 7 or higher. Since seven of the thirteen possible hit cards he could get (any 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, or K) would bust him, he’d be better off surrendering 15 against any dealer 7 upcard or higher. His argument: “If I’m going to bust more than half the time, then I save money by just giving the dealer half of my bet.”

That sounds logical, but it’s a twist of logic. Let me explain…

If I were to flip a coin with the understanding that if it comes up heads, I win, and if it comes up tails, I lose, this is a dead even bet. Since I know that the odds are that I’m going to lose this bet half the time, would I have the same result if I just surrendered half of my money on every bet?

No way. Without surrendering, I’ll break even on a coin-flip in the long run. If I surrender half my money on every bet, I’m losing at a 50% rate for all the money I bet! Surrender doesn’t become a break-even bet until I know I’m going to lose twice as often as I’m going to win. It takes two half-losses to make up for one win. A total of 15 against a dealer 7, 8, or 9 may be a pretty bad hand, but believe it or not, it doesn’t lose twice as often as it wins.

Good Blackjack Rules Sometimes Entice Players to Make Bad Blackjack Plays

Some years ago, a mathematician did a study of the general public’s play at casino blackjack. He literally watched players in Las Vegas and Reno and kept a record of how they played their hands.

One of his more interesting findings was that players in Reno made fewer errors than players in Las Vegas. Why was this? Because players in Las Vegas had more options.

In Reno, blackjack players were only allowed to double down on 10 or 11, while in Las Vegas they were allowed to double down on any two cards, including doubling after splits. If you are only allowed to double down on 10 or 11, you will very rarely make a double-down error, since it’s almost always correct to double down on 10 or 11. But there are lots of errors you can make if you are allowed to double down on any two cards.

In fact, the options to double down on any two cards, and to double down after splits—just like the option to surrender—are player-favorable options. If you know when to exercise the options, and when not to, these options will make money for you in the long run. But if you do not exercise the options correctly, then you’re making the options work for the house.

Surrender is one of those options that almost always makes money for the house because most players give up too many “bad” hands too often. The fact is, if it ain’t a 15 or 16, and if the dealer doesn’t have a ten or Ace showing, it just ain’t that bad. You’ve just got to be brave and hit that sucker! ♠

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Errata in McDowell’s Errata Sheet

Problems with Fundamental Math in Blackjack Ace Prediction

by Arnold Snyder

(From Blackjack Forum XXIV #2, Spring 2005)
© 2005 Blackjack Forum

I purchased my copy of David McDowell’s Blackjack Ace Prediction at the Gambler’s Book Shop in Las Vegas last month (January 2005). No errata sheet was provided and there is no instruction anywhere in the book to go to Dalton’s Web site for the errata sheet.

I have recently been alerted to the errata sheet for McDowell’s Blackjack Ace Prediction on Dalton’s Web site. Unfortunately, as ETFan has pointed out on other Web sites, the error in the page 114 formula that I addressed in my initial article is still there in the errata sheet. In fact, the situation with the errata sheet “correction” is even worse.

This math is not rocket science. It is simple, straightforward, and logical. It is based on the fundamental principles of blackjack math. David McDowell does not understand the mathematical logic of blackjack. So, I will try to explain this math. Dalton seems to think that McDowell has already addressed my concern. He has not. Please just try to follow…

According to the Errata sheet, McDowell says he made an error in his formula on page 114 (which is the formula I found fault with in my initial review of this book). The errata sheet “corrects” the formula by stating that instead of the dealer and player getting 6 additional aces each, they will be sharing a total of 6 extra aces, with only three extra aces each per 100 aces bet. The errata sheet “corrects” the player’s win rate with this assumption from 4.2% (as per the book) to 1.3% (per the errata sheet formula).

Again, McDowell is making a HUGE error. The same error with slightly different numbers.

Please follow the logic.

The errata sheet now assumes that the player and dealer will each get only 3 extra aces per 100 aces bet. Dalton’s errata sheet assumes, as per BJAP, that the ace is worth 51% when it lands on the player’s hand, and -34% when it lands on the dealer’s hand. The errata sheet now uses McDowell’s assumption that there are 7 “random” aces going to both the player and dealer per 100 aces bet, and 3 “predicted” aces going to each, for a total of 10 aces each per 100 aces bet. The errata sheet presents the math for this as follows:

E(X) = (+0.51 x 0.10) + (-0.34 x 0.10) + (-0.005 x 0.80)

= +0.051 – 0.034 – 0.004

= +.0130

Or, a 1.3% advantage when betting on an ace.

I do not know how to explain the math on this any more clearly than I did in my initial BJF article, but I will try. The MAJOR error McDowell is making is that he is assuming that the 80 hands where neither the player nor dealer get a first-card Ace are played with a house edge of only 0.50%.

This is a very important concept. Please pay attention to this: If neither the player nor the dealer are dealt a first-card Ace on any of these 80 hands, then the house edge is no longer 0.50% on these hands for the basic strategy player. That -0.50% basic strategy expectation assumes that the player and dealer will each get the random number of aces as a first card that would be expected to be dealt from a full six-deck shoe. As soon as you remove all of the random first-card aces from this set of 80 hands per 100 (which McDowell has done), then we must reconsider what the cost of these 80 hands with no first-card aces is.

Let me give an example that should clarify this error. The average number of “random” aces dealt as a first card to both the player and dealer is 1/13, or 7.7 first-card aces each per 100 hands. Exactly 1 out of every 13 cards in a six-deck shoe is an ace, so if we’re simply playing random hands, with no predictions, we would expect 7.7 aces per 100 hands since 7.7 is 1/13 of 100. The dealer would also get 7.7 aces per 100 hands.

Is this clear?

Here is how you find the error in McDowell’s formula:

McDowell estimates that the average number of aces per 100 hands is only 7, not 7.7. This is a minor error, but the math on it is so simple, I do not know why he did not just say 7.7 instead of 7. We are attempting to estimate an advantage here, so why not use the most precise number?

McDowell then says (as per the Errata sheet now) that the player and the dealer will each receive an extra 3 aces, for a total of 10 aces each. In his formula, he provides this number as a percentage (0.10) of the 100 aces bet on. He then figures out the expectation if the player and dealer each get 10 aces (0.10) per 100, and no aces are dealt on the other 80 (0.80) of the 100 aces bet on.

His mistake is in assuming that these 80 hands are played against the standard house edge of -0.50%. Note in the formula the last item: (-0.005 x 0.80), which is the notation for his mistaken calculation that 80% of the hands will be played at -0.005 (or -0.50%).

Here’s how you know the formula is WRONG.

What if we use this formula to calculate the player’s advantage when the player and dealer are each dealt exactly 7.7 aces per 100 aces bet (the exact number of aces that would occur at random with no prediction)? Here is what the formula gives us:

E(X) = (+0.51 x 0.077) + (-0.34 x 0.077) + (-0.005 x 0.846)

= +0.03927 – 0.02618 – 0.00423

= +.00886

If this were correct, it would mean that a basic strategy player, getting just the random number of aces (7.7 per 100), and with a dealer also getting 7.7 random aces, would be winning at almost a +0.9% win rate. But we’re assuming that in this game the house has a 0.50% advantage over the player. So, why isn’t our result on this completely random basic strategy game -0.50%?

The reason is because of McDowell’s incorrect assumption about the 84.6% of the hands (100% -7.7% -7.7%) that are played when neither the player nor the dealer is dealt a first-card Ace. He is making the mistake of assuming that on these other 84.6 hands per 100, the player’s expectation is the same as in a 6-deck game where those random first-card aces are included.

The house edge on hands which do not contain an ace is not the same as the edge on hands where a random ace occurs. It’s only when you combine the house edge on the ace hands with the house edge on the non-ace hands that you get an overall player expectation of -0.50%.

If we separate out our basic strategy edge on the 7.7 hands per 100 when the player is dealt a random ace (51% player expectation) and the 7.7 hands per 100 when the dealer is dealt a random ace (-34% player expectation), and we want to know the overall expectation for the basic strategy player on all 100 hands played, then we have to figure out what the player expectation is when neither the player nor the dealer is dealt an ace. This is a fairly simple calculation if we use Griffin’s numbers from Theory of Blackjack. If neither the player nor dealer is dealt an ace as a first card, the house edge is approximately 2.13%. Let’s try this number in McDowell’s expectation formula:

E(X) = (+0.51 x 0.077) + (-0.34 x 0.077) + (-0.0213 x 0.846)

= +0.03927 – 0.02618 – 0.01802

= -0.00493

Which shows the basic strategy player’s expectation to be about -0.49%, just about exactly what we expect.

You do not need a computer simulation to know this. This is long-established, fundamental blackjack math.

So, if the dealer and player are each getting 10 aces per 100 aces bet, as per McDowell’s errata sheet, then the correct math is:

E(X) = (+0.51 x 0.010) + (-0.34 x 0.010) + (-0.0213 x 0.80)

= +0.051 – 0.034 – 0.01704

= -0.00004

which is a -0.004% expectation for the player.

In other words, if the dealer and player each get 10 aces per 100 bet, instead of 7.7 aces per 100 bet, then the house no longer has a 0.50% advantage over the player, but only a 0.004% advantage.

Unfortunately, 10 aces per 100 is not quite enough aces to get the player an advantage over the house, if the dealer is also getting 10 aces per 100. The house still has a slight edge. Does this sound impossible to you? Consider what 10 aces per 100 means to the player who would normally get only 7.7 per 100.

This is an extra 2.3 aces (not 3, as McDowell claims) per 100 aces bet on. That means that for every 43 times that you bet on an ace, you will get one more ace than normal expectation. So, if you are betting on 4 aces per shoe (as per McDowell), you will get one extra ace every 11 shoes.

Unfortunately, the player advantage from getting this extra ace will be cut by the dealer also getting one extra ace every 11 shoes.

I do not know how to make the math any more clear than that.

If McDowell’s “correction” is right, and the dealer and player expect to get 10 aces each per 100 bet by the player, then there is no advantage whatsoever to the player using McDowell’s system.

McDowell then goes on in Dalton’s errata sheet to show what happens “if the dealer can be prevented from getting the ace.” This section is entirely without explanation. This is not acceptable. It is extremely important to know how the dealer is prevented from getting the ace, and an expectation cannot be calculated without specifying this information. Since the first formula shows the dealer and player splitting the 6 extra aces, then in order to prevent the dealer from getting his share of extra aces, either the player must spread to more hands in order to get the aces that would have gone to the dealer, or the aces must go to a hand played by someone else, possibly a civilian. In the first example, where the player spreads to two hands to get the ace on a big bet, we could give the player 13 aces, but we would have to show that the player is now placing 200 bets (not 100) in order to capture the dealer’s aces. In the second example, where a civilian hand is catching the dealer’s share of extra aces, then the formula should show the player is getting his 10 aces, and the dealer is getting only his 7.7 random aces.

(I want to make it clear that I am NOT saying that by spreading to two hands you can prevent the dealer getting extra aces. I am using two hands in this example only to illustrate the principle, not to provide a practical guideline.)

Unfortunately, neither of these methods are shown in the errata sheet formula. The player is shown getting all 6 extra aces, but only playing a single hand (100 hands total). The dealer is shown getting only 7 (not 7.7) aces. And the other 80 hands where no first-card aces are dealt are still being shown with a house edge of only 0.50%, not 2.13%.

I don’t even know how to correct this formula unless McDowell can describe the mechanism by which “the dealer can be prevented from getting the ace.

If you want to put the numbers into the formula yourself, go ahead. I’ll spare you the math. If the player is spreading to two hands, placing 200 bets total to get all the extra aces, he actually does have a win rate: +0.12%.

On the other hand, if there is a convenient civilian at the table, ready to catch the dealer’s aces at no charge to the player, so the player is placing only 100 bets but still getting just a total of 10 aces to the dealer’s 7.7, the player also has a positive advantage: +0.07%.

So, in this example, spreading to two hands is the better strategy, assuming that you prefer to make +0.12% instead of +0.07%. But neither strategy is of any interest whatsoever to the player who is trying to make money by ace tracking.

Here is the problem: David McDowell didn’t go through the hard work necessary to test the theories he presented in Blackjack Ace Prediction. As a result, he never learned how to track or sequence aces. He never came to understand the techniques, the problems, or fundamental blackjack math, a problem we find with many non-players who profess to be “blackjack experts.” ♠

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An Interesting Hand in 8/5 ACE$ Bonus Poker

The cards in ACE$ Bonus Poker (ABP) are just like the ones in regular Bonus Poker (BP) except there are superimposed yellow letters on four cards: “A” on the ace of clubs, “C” on the ace of diamonds, “E” on the ace of hearts, and “$” on the ace of spades. The order of the suits is alphabetical and contract bridge players will also be familiar with this order.

If you get four aces in ACE$ order, either in positions 1-4 or 2-5, you get paid 4,000 coins instead of 400. I’ve written about this game numerous times and have usually said the only changes you make to regular 8/5 BP strategy to play 8/5 ABP perfectly are to break aces full when the aces are in proper sequence for the bonus.

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Wynn: Make mine Manhattan; Votes for sale; Mega-Jottings

There will be at least one serious push for a casino in the heart of New York City, now that Wynn Resorts has thrown in with Related Cos. on “an exposed and sunken rail yard” that some see as a gaming gold mine. The project would be near and dear to Gov. Kathy Hochul‘s heart, so Hochul + Wynn = momentum. “Wynn New York,” or whatever it would be called, would anchor a $25 billion, 28-acre mixed-use development, giving the project much needed sex appeal. On the plus side is proximity to the Jacob Javits Convention Center. Less thrilling is the fact that the casino would have to be built on a mega-platform over some train tracks. (Nothing says “the glamour of gaming” like the subterranean rumble of trains.)

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Blackjack in Egypt

My Egyptian Adventure: Casinos, Blackjack and Card Counting

by BJ Traveller (with Mark Dace)
(From Blackjack Forum XXIII #3, Fall 2003)
© Blackjack Forum 2003

I played blackjack in Cairo, Egypt several years ago in 1995. The games were mediocre, casinos small and the city dirty. My Egyptian guide asked when I would return? I replied perhaps in my next life!

However, recently, a professional gambler whom I know that is of Sri Lankan heritage, whom I will call Y, planned to go to Cairo where he had been several months prior. I desired to test my improved blackjack skills (improved relative to what they were on my previous Egypt trip of eight years ago) and decided to go with him. Y arranged our hotel accommodations at a Marriott for $120 a night. This hotel was selected as he won the most from there on his previous card counting trip. I also invited LG, an American card counter friend of mine, to join in on the trip.

After landing and checking in, my girlfriend and I headed straight to the casino in short order only to find Y already playing. Y has counted cards for only five years but with great success, winning approximately three quarters of a million US$, benefitting not only from the good rules he’s found but also from his persistence. He would try very hard to get even when losing and would sometimes play over 30 hours straight.

The Marriott game was not too attractive and LG and I quit rather quickly with a small loss. The rules included 6D, S17, D9, DAS, no surrender, ENHC (dealer takes all on splits and doubles with a blackjack) and 75% penetration. The persistent Y, however, called us half an hour later with news of winning $1,600. LG, my girlfriend and I went to check other casinos, finding early surrender against all dealer up cards everywhere.

Interestingly, there were only two casinos with early surrender in Cairo when Y had played several months prior. It appeared that most casinos, including the London Clubs (at the two Hiltons) and one Austrian Group (at Semiramis Intercontinental Hotel) yielded to the competition and started offering the good game and rules to attract and cultivate customers. Basic strategy players in Egypt have a small advantage over these casinos with their good rules. An additional reason as to why these favorable rules might have been put in place could have been that the casinos had suffered from the Middle Eastern tension and since locals are not allowed to gamble, the casinos needed to attract tourists.

We changed some money to Egyptian pounds to pay for the inexpensive taxis. We had to bargain every time but $1.50 could take us to most places within Cairo. However, being frugal with taxi fares for multiple passengers later proved to be a mistake because in scouting casinos together some casinos would later bar us based on the play of another in our group scouting party.

The Semiramis Intercontinental Casino offered the best rules on their six-deck game that included S17, ES, DAS and re-split Aces up to 4 hands. The maximums were $200 and $500 and were played in US dollars. Some tables had 9 playing spots and one can play them all, if desired. Wanting to stay closer to the better game, we moved to this hotel and got a $108 casino rate, which was more expensive than the locals paid. However, the rooms were of higher quality.

When LG and I arrived at the Semiramis Intercontinental Casino on the second morning of our stay there, we found Y already playing. He had lost $5,000 there on the previous evening and, as per his style, had returned early the next morning where he got some of his losses back.

LG and I won $1,000 each and left for other targets. We found that the Ramses Hilton Casino in Egypt was run by the London Club and offered a bigger table limit of $1,000 maximum as well as good rules. The smaller Nile Hilton was also nearby. We also discovered the largest table limit of $1,500 to be at the Conrad, another Hilton property. Both Hiltons had 9 playing spot tables. I believe that these types of tables were reflective of the “good old days” before the 9/11 incident and the Iraqi invasion when the casinos in Egypt were much more heavily populated with Western visitors.

Three of the four Sheraton hotels in Egypt have casinos. Of those three, one, the El Gezira, does not have early surrender. LG won $2,000 from there with his special counting system which exploits some card combinations. The Casino Sheraton offers early surrender but doubling on 9, 10, 11 only. The Heliopolis Sheraton offers early surrender and double on any two cards.

LG’s counting expertise failed him at Cairo Sheraton where he lost $3,000, although he would win back $5,000 later. Y wanted to settle in and did not want to play only a short session so I left them playing at the Cairo Sheraton and went scouting on my own. They ended up playing about 15 hours there, winning a net of $6,000. After that session, none of us, my girlfriend and I included, were allowed to enter the casino.

My girlfriend and I went to check the Four Seasons hotel but found that they did not have a casino. All of the casinos in Egypt were at the bigger hotels. We then went to the Mena House Oberoi Casino where I played on my previous trip eight years ago. The hotel was near the Great Pyramid. When we told the taxi driver where we wanted to go, he signed us in without discussing the fare. I suspected we would be charged a very high fare later. Most drivers would negotiate the fare with us without even knowing the whereabouts of the destination. This particular taxi took us to the Mena House Oberoi Hotel for one-third of the usual price. In order to find this hotel our driver drove us all over town, stopped and asked three people for directions, and after our one hour adventure, charged us a fare of less than $1. The cheap gas price, about half that of gas in the US, obviously helped.

The Mena casino opened at 3PM and closed at 7AM. Most other casinos in Egypt are open 24 hours a day. It offers good rules with a bad cut. On my last session of the day, I won $2,000 from one table. The casino then asked me to change tables. I didn’t know if this was out of superstition or for some other reason. I went to see an Egyptian Museum while my friends were busy playing. Ancient Egyptians greatly valued their afterlife. The Book of Death says a deceased person’s heart is weighed against a feather. A person with a heart lighter than a feather is received by the Ruler of the Underworld. On the other hand, Ammut—who is described as a monster with a hippopotamus head, leopard claws, and alligator feet—would eat sinners, those with heavy hearts.

Also within somewhat close proximity was the tomb of Tutenkaman, as well as some gaming opportunities in the same vicinity. By seeing the treasures of this intact tomb, one could only imagine the lost treasures of other bigger Pharaohs. Ultimately, most of my friends only saw the casinos on this trip. My girlfriend and I won $400 from the nearby Nile Hilton after our sightseeing tour, which was 80 times the museum entrance fee.

I found another casino listed in a guide book and went there. The Sofitel Casino, which didn’t open until 5 PM, offered low limits with a $200 maximum bet but had good rules. We won $300 at this stop. We then went to the Heliopolis Sheraton. The casino, called the Kings and Queens, might be run by the Starwood Group, Sheraton’s parent company, as its chips carried the Sheraton logo. The casino managers there were very nervous about our play and wore long faces during our session. Like many other Egyptian casinos, they offered good rules. We decided to leave after winning several hundred dollars for sympathetic and humanitarian purposes to prevent several of the managers having heart attacks.

The Conrad Casino was the only one in Cairo that issued VIP cards, and immediately at that. We went straight for its buffet, which apparently offended a young pit boss. He sent a waiter over to ask whether or not we intended to play. I immediately went back to the tables and bought in $2,000 on one of his tables to demonstrate to him our sincerity to play and to put into motion my desire to take their money.

Y started playing while we ate. I finished my soup and went to join him. He told me the running count was minus 2 so I started out playing only one hand. Small cards poured out like waves in the ocean. The running count ran wild to a plus 15. We piled the bets up until they reached $500 on three different hands. The count dropped back to minus 2 but I still lost $200 in the process. I returned to the buffet for another very tasty soup and when I arrived back at the table, I was pleased to be told that I was being greeted by another plus 15 count. I back-bet Y’s two hands. We pushed the bets to the table maximum of $1,000, losing $3,000 in the process and had to obtain money from our friends in order to continue. The results of the hands finally turned, making us $3,000 richer by the end of the session.

My next stop was an Internet cafe. A friend asked me about the games in Cairo. I told him about the good rules but requested that he not share the details with others. Many people have expressed a lack of comfort regarding my writing of good games. Many have questioned my motivations for being so forthcoming. This list, most notably, includes my girlfriend and my good friend and travel partner Mark Dace. For the record, let it be known that I choose to write about the less sensitive parts of my tales. The better and more lucrative games I now keep private, primarily at the insistence of the above two mentioned individuals.

LG had played mostly hit-and-run, mostly in Las Vegas, using a big spread that attracted a great deal of attention at the much smaller Egyptian casinos. Counters can profit with small spreads when playing games with good rules such as those in Cairo and Moscow. His style of play affected us since we would arrive together and were all of Oriental heritage. He would also wong in, opening new boxes, then, after enjoying some large card production, wong out, leaving the less attractive cards for us. I informed him that such conduct was impolite. He acknowledged my words and made some adjustments. LG lost his big win from Cairo Sheraton to Nile Hilton. This play was not only costly from a financial standpoint in the short term but in the long term as well as this casino eventually started cutting 4 decks out of 6 on us. At about the same time, the Ramses Hilton gave us only a half a shoe between shuffles.

We next went to play in a casino near the Cairo Sheraton. The first shoe was very positive but we I lost $2,000 and, in the process, attracted much attention. The casino manager told the dealer to ignore Y’s fake attempt at surrendering with three cards. Although the manager portrayed himself as knowledgeable and he was pointed in his comments, we didn’t take his hint and recovered our loss. He came to the table again and commented loudly that, “You lost on small bets but are winning on big ones.” He asked us semi-jokingly to play smaller. We ignored him again, won $2,000 and left. We later discovered he sent a blacklist about us all over Egypt including to the Sinai Grand, a casino on the Sinai Peninsula.

After I won $9,000 in five days the casinos turned their backs on us beginning on the sixth day, which was an eternity compared to a Hong Kong counter’s fate. He survived Cairo only hours. The Cairo Sheraton stopped us at their entrance after checking a blacklist and refused our entrance. Additionally, the Ramses Hilton half-shoed us, the Semiramis Intercontinental Casino stopped me after I played several shoes, asking me not to play blackjack. Y was simultaneously barred at the Conrad. We certainly had made a mistake by scouting the casinos together.

Having been barred by most big casinos, we went to play the Movenpick Heliopolis Casino which opened at 8PM. The casino had only one $3 to $50 table. It had the same good rules as most other Egyptian casinos. We were given four decks to play out of six initially. Suddenly, the dealer moved the shuffle point up to two decks without the pit boss’s instructions, following a shoe where we had jumped our bets. The pit boss noticed the bad cut, and asked the dealer to cut deeper for us. I tracked a shoe successfully only to lose hand after hand even while the large cards were produced. We won the last hand betting nine boxes of $50 which gave us a small win of $125, much to the disappointment of the casino staff as we were the only customers all night.

We discovered three casinos in Sharm El Sheik, a beach town on the Sinai peninsula, and decided to give them a try. It was easy arranging a ticket and we made a decision to go there in the morning and flew there that evening. The 500 kilometer flight cost us $181 round trip. The town is on the shore of the Red Sea. We choose to stay at the Movenpick as it had a casino. A twin room cost us $110 although locals paid only $67. The casinos opened at 9 pm.

The Movenpick’s Royale Casino was affiliated with an Austrian Gaming Group. We were a little nervous about entering the casino given our experience from the Austrian-backed Semiramis Intercontinental Casino in Cairo. Nobody seemed to care about us. While we were entering, LG was on his way out. The game was poor with bad rules that included no surrender and only 66% penetration. I, however, found the game playable. I played one shoe then went to check other places.

We were stopped at entrance of the Sinai Grand Casino. Y went and chatted with the pit bosses, discovering that the casino received a flyer from Pyramisa on us. Accordingly, no play was available to us there. The last casino in the city was Sharm, an independent casino that was not tipped off as to our expertise. It sported bad rules and low limits with a $100 maximum wager versus the Royale’s $200 maximum. I left with small win from this trackable game for the higher limit at the Royale.

We were lucky at Royale, winning three rounds during which we wagered an aggregate of $500 (5 boxes of $100 each, having jumped from $20 on each hand). We quit after the win. It was 2:30 AM but the streets were lively with many tourists sipping water pipes at roadside cafes. I could even check the Internet at this hour.

The Vacation Village had a good buffet breakfast, which pleasantly interrupted our intended sleep time. The village was big. It provided carts that took guests to restaurants and the beach, a semi-necessity considering the 37 degree centigrade (99° F) heat. In view of the poor games, I tried to arrange for a flight to the Luxor through the nearby mall. A merchant invited me to his new shops that had opened that Friday, the Muslim weekend. The merchant lied shamelessly claiming that he painted the papyrus himself. I inquired about a glass perfume bottle. He asked for $25, claiming it to be crystal. I had bought the same one in Cairo for $2.

We went for a glass bottom boat ride. There are coral reefs very close to the shore. Swimmers could enjoy watching colorful fish easily. Amongst the travelers on the boat was a large Egyptian family who danced joyfully during the boat ride. Y and LG regretted wasting time here and leaving the big city in light of Cairo’s good games.

We went together to check the last local casino, Casino Aladdin at Domina Coral Bay Resort. We were pleased to find the casino offering ES10 and re-splitting of aces. Penetration was also acceptable at 75%. The table was in Euros, $5 to $200. We bought Euros from the MISR Banks counter in the casino at very bad rate (6% below the market rate). The bank clerk said we could buy our dollars back at a 2% fee. LG didn’t want to play but jumped in opening new boxes when the count shot up. We won close to $1,000 Euros in one shoe. The casino sent in an eagle-eyed manager. We used fake names entering the casino and weren’t looking for longevity so played aggressively. My partner and I moved to another table, thereby avoiding jumping bets in unison with Y and LG. I lost back most of my win rather quickly. Y won 900 Euros and quit. LG won 1,300. We borrowed their Euros before they left. The casino was not happy with their winning and instructed the dealer to half-shoe us. We still won 1,100 Euros with shuffle tracking.

On returning to exchange the Euros back, the bank clerk asked for a higher than the originally quoted 2% fee. I guessed that he might make more than his bank’s president with his powerful laundering position, since he gave no receipts for our transactions. On exiting this “chamber of cons,” we declined the taxi standing by at the casino exit that was asking three times that of the meter. At least the Egyptian people were consistent with their attempts to rip us off in all facets of their business dealings. On a more positive note, the resort was very romantic under moonlight.

We went to the Aladdin early on our last evening in the country. The eagle-eyed manager was waiting for us, and informed us that we were on Austria Casino Group’s blacklist and were no longer welcome. Aladdin had gotten the list from the Royale, obviously, as we were not allowed to enter that location. We went to the last playable joint, Sharm, and, with aggressive betting won $100. Then the casino half-shoed me. We left.

We headed back to Cairo for the last 10 hours before leaving the country. My partner had hidden some chips from the Hiltons, so we went chip cashing. We were barred there but able to cash the chips. I exchanged some money at the National Bank of Egypt. The clerk used 5.69 as the exchange rate instead of the posted 5.96 for me. On purpose? When I pointed this out to him, he said “Oops.”

That aside, I won $9,870, Y won $12,000, and LG $7,000 from casinos in Cairo and elsewhere in Egypt in 10 days. I am sure I will not play blackjack at casinos in Egypt again unless my heart is lighter than a feather! ♠