I recommend you get started with this article by reading last week’s post first. I’ll be happy to wait for you while you do that.
On Day 7 of my trip, a Monday, I showed up in my lucky shirt, hoping to take another big bite out of the casino’s assets if the game was still around. If it had been removed, I’d go back to the $5 game for as long as I was there.
Continue reading My Lucky Shirt — Part 2 of 2
Vici Properties is sanguine about the U.S. economy, at least as it pertains to gambling. It can afford to be. Vici owns the real estate of 11 Las Vegas Strip casinos, which are sitting pretty these days. True, Vici lost $58 million last quarter, but that’s a big improvement on $301 million in red ink in 2Q21. We certainly don’t hope for a repeat of the Great Recession but find Vici CEO Ed Pitoniak short-memoried when he says that “The gaming customer has proven to be more resilient through both garden-variety recessions and full-blown crises than just about any other discretionary consumer out there. That was proven through both the great financial crisis and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.” Well, the last time we had a “great financial crisis,” in 2008-9, Las Vegas imploded. So we hope for Vici’s sake that the mild recession currently underway doesn’t morph into something worse or else Pitoniak might be rudely awakened.
Continue reading Vici foresees blue skies; Ruffin + Athletics?; Phil the Shill
In a truly doleful sign of the times, Philadelphia Live has reinstated metal detectors at its entrance. Also, in a nod to Covid-19, aka The Disease That Couldn’t Be Cured, it is handing out free face masks to patrons. Good on Cordish Gaming. So what is the struggling casino like these days? Our East Coast correspondent paid a visit. And things are improving, “It was the most crowded I’ve ever seen Philly Live.” The bar band also earned kudos. Plus there’s a gift promotion for August that, for a change, doesn’t require playing $500 (a nod to declining discretionary dollars?).
Continue reading Philly Live shows life; Massachusetts sports betting wins; S.C. scandal
Along with Resorts Atlantic City, the Golden Nugget (seen above in its Trump Marina days) has inked a new labor pact with Unite-Here, bringing to an end any uncertainty about a strike on the Boardwalk. Workers get substantial pay increases, as they desired, and casino bosses get four years of peace. Union local prexy Robert McDevitt called the negotiations “long and difficult” but everyone is making nice in the wake of the deal. “We were one of the final casinos that was approached for negotiations and we are proud it was a swift and amicable agreement,” remarked Nugget General Manager Tom Pohlman. Resorts’ durable President Mark Giannantonio echoed Pohlman: “We’re really thrilled for the employees. They’ve been working really hard for us, and now we’re happy we can put this behind us and move forward with our business.” Only that remains is formal ratification of the contract, which should be a slam dunk.
Continue reading Peace in Atlantic City; Storm over Vegas
Gambling revenues on the Las Vegas Strip last month heated up dramatically, $735 million or +23% from the year previous. Unfortunately for Nevada, the good news pretty much ends there. Locals play continues to decline, with Downtown off 11.5% to $70 million, North Las Vegas cooling 8% to $22.5 million and the Boulder Strip slipping 12% to $86 million. Laughlin wilted 14.5% to $36.5 million and miscellaneous Clark County dipped 1% to $146 million. Mesquite held its own, flat at $13.5 million and Wendover was up in June, gaining 5.5% to $20 million. Lake Tahoe, however, suffered a blowout, minus 29% to $22 million (yes, worse than North Las Vegas). Reno booked $61.5 million but stumbled 5%.
Continue reading Strip sizzles, locals chillier; The Macao trap
“No gaming consumer slowdown, at least not yet.” That was the headline of JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff‘s appraisal of Boyd Gaming‘s 2Q22 earnings call. Loyalty players and core customers remain steadfast, as Boyd grew revenues 4% “despite a tough year-over-year comparison.” Unrated players are the Achilles heel, although Greff (rightly) theorizes that their 2Q21 gambling spree “was likely goosed up from stimulus checks.” While unrated play is as much as 40% of overall win, it’s not very profitable in the final analysis. Greff ratcheted his price target on BYD from $83/share down to $71 “despite limited evidence that the U.S. regional gaming consumer is slowing in any meaningful way.” Why? He predicts a 10% revenue decline next year, with serious consequences for the bottom line.
Even so, Greff likes Boyd’s regional diversity “which generates attractive free cash flow.” He’s (not unreasonably) factoring in a “mild” recession, which may be already here, and which he freely admits could be worse than modeled. Fortunately for Boyd, it is not in a position where debt reduction is necessary. Or as CEO Keith Smith put it, “We’re dealing in an uncertain environment and economy, but everything we see says the business is pretty stable. If something were to happen, given our current financial strength, we’re not losing sleep.”
Continue reading Boyd outperforms; Vegas airport sets record, joblessness dropsThis true story happened some time ago, but so far, I haven’t written about it. I was playing $25 single line Double Double Bonus (DDB), rather heavily, at an out-of-town casino for more than a week. What casino, pay schedule, slot club, and promotions that made this a good play in my opinion are for another story, another day. Suffice it to say that I believed it to be a play where I had enough of an advantage to warrant playing hard.
If you can figure out where and when this took place (perhaps you saw me — a lot of players know what I look like), please keep it to yourself. There are reasons I don’t specify all the details of the game here, and please don’t undermine my reasons.
Continue reading My Lucky Shirt — Part 1 of 2
You know it’s a slow news week when today’s front-and-center lead story in the Las Vegas Review-Journal is that a Lotus of Siam will open in a refreshed Red Rock Resort. With nothing of pressing urgency in the press these last few days, we’ll update you with various odds and ends, such as … Cirque du Soleil‘s Love has received a one-year stay of execution at The Mirage, extended into and perhaps through 2023. All bets are off once Hard Rock International consummates the purchase. Only CEO Jim Allen knows for sure and he ain’t talking, including addressing the bigger question of whether The Mirage proper will remain open during the massive rebranding of the resort. Love‘s marquee is conspicuously missing from the Hard Rock rendering above …
Continue reading Jottings for a Tuesday
A “cruel, cruel summer” for regional casinos was predicted by Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas and it’s already arrived in Louisiana, where gambling revenues fell 10% last month. It’s not even keeping pace with go-go 2019 any longer. The statewide gross was $200 million, as visitation fell 8% and spending dipped 2%. Sports betting revenue was a miserable $11 million on handle of $132.5 million. Not much pent-up demand there. Hobbled by renovations, Harrah’s New Orleans fell 14.5% but still easily let its market with $21 million. Also revenue-negative in the Big Easy were Boomtown New Orleans ($11 million, -7.5%) and Treasure Chest ($8 million, -4.5%), while Fair Grounds racino was up 5% to $4 million. Up the river in Baton Rouge, new ownership at Belle of Baton Rouge inherited a property that Caesars Entertainment left at rock bottom ($1 million, -11%), while Hollywood Baton Rouge slid 18% to $5 million. L’Auberge Baton Rouge posted $16 million (-2.5%).
Continue reading Louisiana plummets; Cool front disrupts summer gaming
Despite attenuated revenues of $1.2 billion in the second quarter, Las Vegas Sands was the beneficiary of what one analyst termed “creeping expectations” on Wall Street. Or, as Deutsche Bank‘s Carlo Santarelli put, “we continue to believe LVS represents one of the more compelling medium- to longer-term risk-reward stories in our coverage universe.” How come? Managed expectations, in large part. Losses in Macao were not as bad as feared and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore (55% of the company’s equity now) is prompting higher forecasts, as the city-state loosens its Covid-19 restrictions. Regarding Macao, “management had little to say” but numbers were “soft” and the company expects to lose $110 million a month in cash flow and rents as long as the current shutdown persists.
Continue reading “Standout” at Sands; Station challenges South Point