Las Vegas Advisor

Posted on July 8, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Torrid summer in Ohio; Kiddies for sports betting

We’ve been a busy bee of late. You can read our interview with Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment‘s Pacific viceroy, Bobby Soper, see our preview of Resorts World Las Vegas or look back on 2020, the year that wasn’t in gaming. Enjoy.

Ohio casinos are continuing their record pace, racing 22% ahead of June 2019. While play slackened a bit compared to May, casinos and racinos still grossed $197 million. Everyone was revenue-positive and Hollywood Columbus led the pack, winning $23 million and up 19%. Just shy of $23 million and climbing 30% was Jack Cleveland. Hollywood Toledo grossed $19 million, up 15%, and slumbering Hard Rock Cincinnati came to life with $19 million and a 17% boost. Just a hundred grand behind Hollywood Columbus was MGM Northfield Park, 11% up in a rare month out of first position. Scioto Downs leapt 26% to $19.5 million and Miami Valley Gaming hopped 22% to $18 million but the most dramatic gain was at Jack Thistledown, vaulting 46% to $17.5 million. Hollywood Dayton climbed 31% to $13 million, Hollywood Mahoning Valley was up 22% to $13.5 million and Belterra Park brought up the rear, gaining 8% to finish at $8 million.

Posted on July 8, 2021 by James Grosjean — 32 Comments

What is “Blackjack”?

Episode 5 of Colin Jones will air on its regular schedule next time, but this recent comment on the GWAE Facebook page deserves (maybe) an immediate reply:

Marketing the 6:5 variant as just straight blackjack is as preposterous as a casino marketing the house table game “Casino poker” “3card Poker” with a house edge dealt in the pit as just Poker. Beyond the question of proper “notice” of 6:5 odds in the case from this post, the concept of getting paid 3:2 on a natural 21 is so central to the game, hence the name Blackjack, that casinos should not be allowed to market the 6:5 variant as Blackjack. They should have to name it something else like the previous used Spanish 21 for another variant of the game. This would also resolve the concerns in the posted case.

Posted on July 7, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 3 Comments

Maryland keeps booming; Penn panned

Gaming’s recovery continues unabated in the Free State. Maryland gambling revenues for June were $161.5 million, a 13% gain on 2019. $64 million of that went to MGM National Harbor, up 12% and hoarding 39.5% market share. Maryland Live chugged along with $58.5 million, a 19% gain—and 36% market share—and Hollywood Perryville booked $8 million for a 21% leap. Vaulting 29%, Ocean Downs won $9 million, while Rocky Gap Casino was up 12.5% to $6. Did Gary Loveman build Horseshoe Baltimore on an Indian burial ground? Alone among Maryland casinos it was revenue-negative. It grossed $17 million for a 9% decline. West Virginia casinos finally caught up with the 2019 pace, being only 1% down from that halcyon year. Slot winnings were flat, tables down 6%. At Hollywood Charles Town Races, revenues actually outpaced 2019 by 5%, with a 6% slot gain overcoming an 1% dip at the tables.

It’s highly uncommon in our experience for a Wall Street analyst to put a “sell” rating on a stock but that’s just what Deutsche Bank‘s Carlo Santarelli did to Penn National Gaming yesterday. Penn has been the darling of The Street ever since it eviscerated the company during the Great Shutdown, which did wonders for its margins. The stock is trading at $72/share and Santarelli put a $31 price target on it. Why? Primarily because he believes Penn’s Internet gambling operations and Barstool Sports are “considerably overvalued” relative to its performance so far. (Shades of DraftKings.) He’s also skeptical of forecasts that call for year after year of revenue growth when he sees an upcoming contraction, especially compared to lean-and-mean 2021. Not even the additions of Hollywood Perryville and two slot parlors in Pennsylvania alleviate his gloom. Penn has tantalized Wall Street with preannouncements of $1.5 billion in 2Q21 revenue, a bit of bare ankle that may have been intended to distract from the issuance of $400 million in new debt.

Posted on July 6, 2021August 24, 2023 by Bob Dancer — 31 Comments

End of An Era?

In late May of this year, I sent an email to the powers that be at the South Point letting them know that I wished to resume teaching free video poker classes on Tuesdays in September. I was told that they would discuss it at the staff meeting and get back to me.

This is the way it’s been at the South Point for almost ten years. Twice a year, we’ve had this exchange of emails. The classes were postponed during the pandemic, of course. For the fall semester of 2020 and winter semester of 2021, my emails to them stated my belief that it was too early to resume classes again, and naturally they agreed with me.

Posted on July 6, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Case Bets

Crown Resorts is in the soup again. Businessman and fugitive from justice Michael Gu allegedly used Crown Melbourne as a sieve through which to strain $8 million in Ponzi scheme money. “Authorities believe he conned clients by claiming he was buying a portfolio of commercial property in Australia. In fact, he and his CFO, Harry Huang, were misappropriating investor funds to pay other investors while living the high life, according to a report by administrator KPMG,” reports Casino.org. Where did the money go? Try two Lamborghinis, a Rolls Royce Wraith, a Ferrari GTB, an Audi Q7 and a McLaren Spider. Gu also deposited ill-gotten funds at Crown Melbourne over a three-year period and withdrew them for gambling.

In no position to appear lax, Crown thundered, “We are treating this matter seriously and have immediately launched an investigation into the allegations. Crown will ensure regulators, the royal commissions, and other relevant authorities are informed and updated as required.” The company had better get on the stick. Australian regulators have discovered that Crown Melbourne helped move $120 million out of China over a four-year period, a red flag if ever there was one, especially since the money was used to book nonexistent hotel rooms.

Posted on July 5, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 2 Comments

Resorts World a smash hit; Cranky Maine woman stiffs tribes

Resorts World Las Vegas Officially Debuts as First Ground-Up Resort Built on Las Vegas Strip in Over a Decade

Some of us thought Nevada would never regain the giddy gambling heights of 2007. We were wrong. May was the best month in Silver State history, as casinos raked in $1.2 billion. (The previous high was in October 2007, on the cusp of the Great Recession.) Admittedly, it was a long march—14 years, but Big Gaming is arguably healthier than it has ever been. Look for that new record to fall soon. It was achieved in a month during which casinos were still operating with capacity constraints. Think what’s probably been happening since Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) lowered all the restraints on June 1. In May it appears to have been a case of fewer players wagering more, as occupancy hovered at 71%, averaging 88% on weekends. That’s still shy of 2019 levels. Slot play, however, hit an all-time peak, while sports betting saw $27 million in revenue from $477.5 million in handle. All of this bounty fattened Sisolak’s tax coffers to the tune of $107 million.

Resorts World Las Vegas, meanwhile, is out of the starting blocks fast. It saw 20,000 visitors its first weekend and is, if my sources are to be believed, the new must-see attraction in Las Vegas. That’s quite a journey from being an iffy prospect when Genting Group took it over, lo, those many years ago. Genting’s patience has paid off and it opened just as the wave of Vegas tourism curled and crested. It’s far too soon to assess its long-term prospects but it throws a lifeline to Circus Circus and Sahara, two casinos whose business plan seems to have been to hunker down and wait for Resorts World to rescue them. There’s already some rather precipitate talk about putting a megaresort across from the Sahara but, in the time it will take to build one, we’ll have a much better idea if the north Strip is here to stay, so to speak. As for Resorts World itself, we will leave the assessments to those who have actually seen it, which Yr. Humble Blogger will be unable to do until Global Gaming Expo in October. In the meantime, have one on us, Sin City. You’ve earned it.

Posted on July 2, 2021 by James Grosjean — 4 Comments

Colin Jones (S1 E4): In the Beginning …

In The 21^st-Century Card Counter, Colin Jones describes how he started out: [p. 6] “I convinced Grace to let me take a third of everything we had in the bank—$2000—to the casino. If I lost it, I’d be done.” Those two sentences sum up two of the biggest challenges facing a new counter or AP. Achieving social acceptance or support from family, friends, and square work colleagues, and starting with a minuscule bankroll make success incredibly difficult. What business would you dare to start with only $2000? Would you open a yogurt shop with that? Could you set up a B2B online marketplace with that? A high-end driving/limo service?

With only $2000, what would happen if you go to Vegas to become a card counter? You’d be better off getting yourself castrated, going down to Fremont Street, and collecting $10 from every tourist who wants to kick you in the crotch. But fools rush in where angels dare to tread, so CJ took the crazy path of trying to become a card counter.

Posted on July 1, 2021September 18, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

CityCenter sold

Today, MGM Resorts International bought the last remaining chunks—Aria and Vdara—of CityCenter from erstwhile Dubai World. They’ll only make a brief stopover in the lion’s den before being flipped to Blackstone Group. Since we’re covering the story for CDC Gaming Reports we’re constrained from elaborating further in S&G … but we’ll link you to in-depth coverage as soon as it goes online.

Update: Read about it in full detail.

Posted on June 30, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 4 Comments

Merry month of May in Las Vegas; Beehive of activity in Atlantic City

May’s gaming revenues from Nevada are in and they are blockbuster. When the Strip is 26% higher than 2019 (winning $655.5 million) and locals play is 25% stronger it is fair to say the recovery has been achieved—and far sooner than expected. One analyst had predicted only a 3% uptick on the Las Vegas Strip. There, slot revenue was $385 million (+24.5%) on 23.5% more coin-in Baccarat winnings fell 97% and haven’t been able to get up—and won’t until international travel returns in a meaningful way. Non-baccarat table games saw 14% less wagering but won 9% more than two years ago. Locals slot revenue vaulted 24% to $219 million and table play yielded $39 million, up 34.5%. May was the first month of 100% capacity in Nevada casinos and players obviously turned out in force, including a substantial number (approximately 60,000) traveling to and from Sin City by air.

Posted on June 29, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — Leave a comment

Scientific Games goes on a diet; BetMGM stiffs player

This is a head-scratcher. Despite sports betting sweeping our great country, Scientific Games is opting out of the sports-wagering business. And the lottery biz, too, even though that remains a robust market segment. Reported JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, “management noted that its plan is to fully divest these businesses and its goal is to move quickly (process well underway).” An IPO is one of several routes being contemplated for the spinoff. Greff viewed the announcement positively, especially if SGMS uses the proceeds to pay down debt. He estimates the company’s leverage could go from an eye-popping 9.6X equity to 4X. That would have Wall Street breathing more easily. Added Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli, this crash diet would leave Scientific with three pillars: SciPlay, slot manufacture and i-gaming. Wrote Santarelli, “These business lines, in aggregate, generated roughly $1.0 bn of 2019 adjusted [cash flow]. SGMS again noted that it believes its digital gaming businesses will be comparable in scope to its land based gaming business in 3 years.” So Scientific is selling the present in hopes of making up for it in the future. It’s a radical move but the company shouldn’t lack for takers.

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