JP Morgan analysts, led by Joseph Greff, are touring Las Vegas ahead of Global Gaming Expo and seem to like what they’re hearing. For instance, they met with Station Casinos CFO Steven Cootey and were told that demand continues to be strong, with customer spend tracking above pre-pandemic levels. Why? Customers are of a more gaming-centric stripe these days. Station “has been able to sign up, and retain, first time typically younger customers at a nice pace, with these customers being 2x as valuable as the pre-COVID level.” Baby Boomers started coming back commensurate with any slowing of new Coronavirus cases and increase in vaccinations. An influx of refugees from California (50% of all drivers’ license surrenders) is also bolstering the demographics.

As for Durango Station, Cootey says the company is sticking to its knitting (i.e., no more Palms-style adventures) and will announce a project budget on the next earnings call. They’re really milking that narrative for everything it’s worth. Management still has “no immediate plans” to reopen Fiesta Henderson, Fiesta Rancho and Texas Station. Small wonder, given that the latter two are in North Las Vegas, where the recovery has been very soft. Besides, their core customers have be rechanneled into other Station properties, much to the casinos’ benefit since the players in question are high-value ones. Marketing is being done more selectively, in part to study its effectiveness. Cootey also said there’s been less promotional warfare due to consolidation within the industry and “noted it doesn’t seem like anyone has desire to return back to prior levels.” As for the aforementioned Palms, the sale to the San Manuel Band is still on track to close by year’s end. The proceeds will go towards lowering the company’s leverage to 2X or 2.5X equity. It all sounds good to us.

The NFL‘s rationing policy regarding sports book ads worked like a charm in Week One, allowing for a variety of content without blanketing the airwaves. Of the ones we saw, Caesars Sports Book took the palm for creativity. As for irritating and overloaded, there was one outright loser, by a vast margin. You guessed it, it was …

Count on Illinois to disappoint in an otherwise balmy August. True, it grossed a not-shabby $108 million but it was 8.5% down from 2o19, as business slipped 10% from July’s level. (We don’t want to say the gaming recovery is waning but it does appear to have peaked, judging by regional trends.) The preponderance of revenue came from northern Illinois and nearly half of that purely from Rivers Casino Des Plaines, which won $41.5 million, defying the odds to rise 10%. From there it was way down to Grand Victoria‘s $13.5 million (-6%) and Harrah’s Joliet‘s $13 million (-14%). Hollywood Aurora grossed $9 million (-12%) and Empress Joliet brought in $7 million, plunging 29%. Mid-state, Jumer’s Casino Rock Island, in its first month as a Bally’s Corp. property, plummeted 35% to $4 million—Bally’s CEO George Papanier will have his hands full—while Par-A-Dice slid 15.5% to $5 million.

In the southern tier, DraftKings Casino Queen was down 18% to $7 million while Argosy Belle tumbled 23.5% to $3 million. Harrah’s Metropolis slid 21% to $5 million. Mandatory mask-wearing was reimposed on Aug. 30, so we’ll have to wait and see if that put a damper on this month’s results. In the meantime, slot routes continue to spread, dimming the prospects of casinos new and old alike. Sports betting hit a lull in July, with $369 million in handle and some worry that the state’s in-person registration requirement could dampen a football-season rebound. Said PlayUSA‘s Joe Boozell, “Because in-person registration was reinstated in April at the beginning of the slow season in sports betting, the industry has skirted the most severe effects of the state rule. But there will be no hiding from it during football season.”

Late yesterday Bloomberg broke the news that Blackstone Inc. is shopping The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas … for a $5 billion minimum price. What’s even more incredible is that apparently it has suckers, er, corporations already on the hook. Why is the asking price so absurd? Consider that the Cosmo was built for $3.9 billion back in 2010 and that Blackstone obtained it from Deutsche Bank for a fire-sale $1.7 billion. We’re talking some serious profiteering here, folks. (Ya ever hear of depreciation, Blackstone?) Consider also that the Cosmo has 3,027 rooms while $4 billion Aria has 4,000 and $4.3 billion Resorts World Las Vegas boasts 3,506. So Blackstone wants more money for a smaller property. They’ve got some nerve.

Even crazier is that Apollo Management, not yet having taken the $6.25 billion keys to Venelazzo, is already circling the Cosmo and that MGM Resorts International might splurge on the megaresort, perhaps with a view to augmenting CityCenter. Does Bill Hornbuckle light cigars with $100 bills? Between a $9 billion commitment to Osaka and a potential $5 billion-plus indulgence on the Cosmo, MGM hardly seems the epitome of carefully targeted investment. (Remember that the Japanese casino can only occupy 3% of the megaresort’s total square footage.) At Blackstone’s initial put, one would have to generate a near-impossible $600 million in annual cash flow to have a prayer of a 15% return on investment. In other words, it would have to be THE GREATEST GAMING JUGGERNAUT OF ALL TIME. And if you believe that, let me sell you this bridge in Brooklyn … Apollo may cover its ass by going halves with Vici Properties but we’re still talking a helluva heavy lift. Normally it would be cheaper to buy than build on the Strip but these are far-from-normal times.