Las Vegas Advisor

Posted on September 3, 2021 by James Grosjean — 7 Comments

An Opportunity or a Predicament?

In his recent blog post (which he coincidentally titled the same as mine), Bob Dancer ponders what APs have come to call a scavenging play: The stranger-cum-BFF gambling next to you is about to misplay a hand, and you have the opportunity to correct this injustice, merely by offering a bit of timely advice and bankrolling. For instance, BFF doesn’t have the money to split 88 v 6, and is about to wave off the hand. You charitably offer to help him out by providing the additional chips, and, in a supreme gesture of international cooperation and friendship, suggest teaming up to split all profits or losses. An enduring partnership—through thick and thin, until the very end, of the hand.

Most commonly, the scavenger will jump in to complete a double-down that the BFF was about to double for less, or forgo completely. In games like UTH, the scavenger could complete a 4x preflop wager that the BFF wouldn’t even consider, such as an Ace that the BFF would surely not fold on the river.

Posted on September 2, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — 2 Comments

Super-spreader event at Caesars nixed; Mega-jottings

Caesars Entertainment must have decided it was poor optics to be hosting a convention of anti-vaxxers at brand-new Caesars Forum as Coronavirus cases spike. Or maybe it blanched at the potential deep-cleaning costs after the event. Either way, QAnon-espousing “Patriot Double Down” will have to find somewhere else if it wants to play Vegas this October. (Have they called the Fertitta Brothers?) Event organizers must be scrambling for a new venue to infect, er, book. The Associated Press reported that it was presently unclear if the show “would be moved, postponed or canceled. Event officials did not immediately respond to telephone and email messages.” But with a top ticket of $3,000, we don’t expect Double Down to just fold its hand. There’s money to be made! Given QAnon followers’ eschatology, we’re frankly surprised they’d choose Sin City for their “Great Awakening” but so be it. (Good luck getting them to comply with mask mandates.) We’re talking about a city where Las Vegas Raiders fans would rather forfeit their tickets than get vaccinated. Nor does it seem like one can hold a public meeting in Clark County without being inundated with screaming anti-vaxxers. Las Vegas has so many already it scarcely needs to import more. Meanwhile, the number of Sin City vaccination mandates continues to grow, a laudable trend.

Posted on September 2, 2021 by James Grosjean — 4 Comments

Colin Jones (S1 E10 Finale): The Ultimate Vindication (or, A Cover Play Made in the Forest)

Throughout The 21^st-Century Card Counter, Colin Jones interviews former students who have gone off into the wild to ply their trade. There’s a bit of publication bias, because we don’t hear about the train wrecks, but that’s understandable. The success stories are still entertaining and educational, and include sufficient misery. Whenever I read those reports of extended losing periods, I send CJ a mental thank-you for reminding me—as he does throughout his book—why counting cards isn’t for everyone, certainly not someone as soft as I am.

Now comes “Joe” [not his real name], who turned $10k into $1 million! Do you know how hard that is? Imagine being thrown into prison, and digging a two-mile tunnel using nothing but a plastic spoon. Joe did it without the spoon! That result, and the four-year journey it took, makes Joe an instant authority on card counting in the, um, 21^st century. Yeah, what Colin said.

Posted on September 1, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

FanDuel gets up all up in your grille; Tahoe casinos: Fire? What fire?

What will sports-betting advertising be like once football season starts? Our prediction is for overkill, followed by backlash. As though to prove our point, FanDuel is unleashing a national ad blitz with a minute-long TV spot called “Anthem.” It’s so over the top, so relentlessly in your face that a certain amount of revulsion is all but inevitable. Judge for yourself:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=4M65joX1TX8

Shades of the inescapable DraftKings/FanDuel DFS commercials of a few years back. Fortunately, the market will probably be self-regulating, or at least heavily filtered. The first layer of filtration is sports leagues themselves. The NFL has already limited sports-betting puffery to six spots per game. Consumer reaction will also play a role and, if that and other forces don’t keep things to a reasonable level, state regulators can make their displeasure known. In Europe and the United Kingdom, sports leagues have seen governmental intervention when gambling advertisements were felt to have gone too far and become too ubiquitous. Nobody wants a repeat of that scenario stateside, least of all betting providers.

Posted on August 31, 2021August 24, 2023 by Bob Dancer — 28 Comments

An Opportunity or a Predicament?

It’s been a long time since I addressed this subject. The opportunity to actually do it hasn’t happened recently, so you should know that the situation I’m about to describe is fictitious, not factual. Still, the situation does happen periodically and knowing how to handle it when it does happen is worthwhile.

I’m playing $2 NSU at the South Point and a lady next to me is playing $1 9/6 Double Double Bonus. She’s dealt A♦ J♦ 3♦ Q♦ K♦. She doesn’t know me, but since I’m playing my game rapidly (by her standards) she assumes I’m knowledgeable and she asks me whether she should hold four or five cards?

Posted on August 30, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 3 Comments

Ida hits coastal casinos; Case Bets

Gulf Coast casinos are currently weathering Hurricane Ida and can be optimistic—at least in Mississippi—that it will not be a replay of Hurricane Katrina, now that all the coastal casinos are onshore. However, garages are flooding and casino doors are being sandbagged and reinforced, so this isn’t being taken lately. Most Biloxi-area casinos were proactive about shutting down on Saturday afternoon, although tardy responses from Golden Nugget and Island View Casino are to be noted. We’ll provide further news as it arrives but Ida’s bark appears to have been worse than her bite, thank God.

Two sports betting licenses remain up for grabs in Arizona. But the full tribal complement of 10 has been issued by Gov. Doug Ducey (R). Winners include WynnBET (San Carlos Apache Tribe), Westgate Las Vegas (Fort Mojave Indian Tribe), Golden Nugget (Hualapai Tribe), Tonto Apache (Churchill Downs), two tribes going with no-name outfits and four tribes—including the doughty Tohono O’odham nation, flying solo. Sports teams dealt in included the Arizona Cardinals (BetMGM), the Arizona Diamondbacks (William Hill), the Phoenix Suns (FanDuel), the Phoenix Mercury (Bally’s Corp.), TPC Scottsdale (DraftKings), Phoenix Speedway (Penn National Gaming), the Arizona Rattlers (Rush Street Interactive) and the presently unaffiliated Phoenix Coyotes. Left out in the cold is the Gila River Indian Nation, which partnered with BetMGM but to no avail.

Posted on August 26, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Strip sets all-time record

Could last month’s Las Vegas Strip revenues really have been 46.5% higher than in July 2019? That’s what Wall Street analysts are telling us (Deutsche Bank‘s Carlo Santarelli says he only anticipated +5%) and there’s no reason to doubt them. The $794 million haul is an all-time monthly record for the Strip and a 30% explosion over June’s numbers. The previous all-time high, set in February 2013, was exceeded by $100 million. Locals-derived revenue was much less than expected but still up an impressive 13.5%. The $241 million locals gross would have been fatter had July not ended on a Saturday, leaving some slot lucre still in the hoppers (traditionally dumped on Mondays). Back on the Strip, slot coin-in leapt 36%, for win of $409.5 million. Table play rose 38% and win was up 31% to $226 million, despite lower hold. All-important baccarat saw increased wagering (+25%) and a lucky house, as win rocketed 114.5% upward (on significantly higher hold).

Posted on August 25, 2021 by James Grosjean — 21 Comments

Colin Jones (S1 E9): Knockout KISS

At the Blackjack Ball one year, Tommy Hyland came up to me saying he had a question. The preface “I have a question for you” is always a little unnerving, especially coming from someone you don’t talk to very often. So then he asked me … [wait for it …]

“Why do you recommend KO?”

Posted on August 24, 2021August 24, 2023 by Bob Dancer — 7 Comments

Why is There a Difference?

You’re playing dollar Double Double Bonus with progressives on both the royal and aces with a kicker (AWAK). On the hands we’re going to talk about today, the only thing that matters are quads and full houses, so assume AWAK pays $2,200 and a full house pays $45. If you’re not familiar with the game, trips pay $15 and aces with the fifth card not being a 2, 3, or 4 pay $800.

I’ll start with the three hands in question, where suits don’t matter:

AAA45
AAA44
AAA43

Posted on August 24, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — 2 Comments

Bargains galore at Caesars; Station savages Culinary; Mega-Jottings

Caesars Entertainment is holding a fare sale across its non-Las Vegas properties, a possible signal that the stimulus-fueled recovery may be cooling (in economics, what goes up must come down). In Atlantic City you have your choice of such starting prices at $54/night at Harrah’s Resort, $59 at Tropicana Atlantic City and $64 at Caesars Atlantic City. Elsewhere in the Roman Empire the bargain destination is Tropicana Laughlin at $35/night. Surprisingly pricey is Harrah’s Cherokee at $169. Up there on the price ladder are Lumiere Place ($159), Isle Waterloo ($105) and Isle of Capri Boonville ($99). Bargain hunters have their choice of—ick!—Circus Circus Reno‘s $39 but we’d advise spending a bit more and staying down the street at Silver Legacy for $49. Harvey’s Lake Tahoe is wallet-friendly at $49, as is Harrah’s Gulf Coast at $75. With prices like those who needs Vegas, especially right now?

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