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“In a word, messy”

That’s how JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff described the online sports-betting bill enacted by the New York State Lege. The latter essentially caved to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), giving control of OSB to the state lottery. Instead of the one-operator solution proposed by Cuomo there will be … wait for it … two. Big whoop. Those two casinos will be enabled to host four ‘skins’ on their Internet platforms. So, as we predicted, somebody (maybe a lot of somebodys) are going to be left out in the cold. The ‘Net platform providers will each pay Albany $25 million for a 10-year concession plus an annual levy of $5 million to the host casino “to alleviate the constitutional requirement that sports wagers are placed at casinos.” No tax rate has been announced but both Greff and Credit Suisse‘s Ben Chaiken anticipate it will be steep, probably in the 50% range, another Cuomo object of desire.

The cure may be worse than the disease. Greff, for one, finds himself with more questions than answers. For instance, what’s the difference between a platform provider and an OSB operator (Cuomo tipped his hand here by taking a meeting with DraftKings)? The bill calls for a minimum of four skins but what’s the maximum? Who gets to choose the skins, the state or the private sector? Will Native American tribes be eligible to compete? Will they sue the state and how might this delay the launch? Greff foresees the Empire State going live by the start of NFL season, as the bid process will begin July 1 with a truncated, 30-day RFP period. Regulators, says Chaiken, have five months to decide, which kind of shoots that NFL-kickoff target in the keister. The New York Gaming Commission gets to play King Solomon, depending on how much Cuomo tries to interfere.

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A Further Look at Double Up

Anthony Curtis and Andrew Hunt have a YouTube podcast called “In the Wild,” where they address Las Vegas Advisor-kinds of questions. Basically, straight talk about the basics of things gamblers want to know.

Recently, they addressed the Double Up feature in video poker seen here. Other than once confusing the term ‘Double Up’ with ‘double down’ (a term in blackjack), what they said was correct. 

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Maryland has best month ever; Rio reopens

Even with capacity restrictions still in place at MGM National Harbor and Horseshoe Baltimore, the Free State enjoyed an epic March with casinos posting an all-time-record $169 million. On March 12, MGM and Horseshoe were bumped up to 50% capacity (from 25%) and restrictions at the state’s four smaller casinos were lifted. (Last year, casinos were closed March 16-June 19.) As usual, MGM was out front with $66.5 million, 6% better than March 2019. It and Maryland Live dominated the market, with 39% and 36%, respectively. Maryland Live gained 9% to $61 million but while Horseshoe Baltimore grew sequentially (up $5.5 million from February), it was still the state’s lone disappointment, down 23% to $20 million. Ocean Downs was up 13% to $7.5 million, Hollywood Perryville vaulted 21% to $9 million and Rocky Gap Resort was up 8.5% to $5.5 million. The leading edge of a trend? We certainly think so. As America goes, so goes Maryland—only more so.

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Caesars looking good; Amtrak covets Vegas; Bally’s underwhelms

Joseph Greff and his fellow JP Morgan analysts looked at recent trends in Las Vegas and any place not named Atlantic City, and liked what they saw, raising their price target on the stock five bucks to $101/share. Positive factors include recovery in leisure travel (group business is seen as coming back late this and into next year), “legs to a recovery in U.S. drive-to, regional markets, with our anticipation of a return of the 55+ year old customer, which has lagged other customer segments such as a younger demographic,” as well as “permanently higher margins,” thanks to job cuts and other economies. The pending close of the William Hill purchase poises CZR to capitalize on the explosion of U.S. sports betting and growth of online gambling. So far the only consequential property sale on the horizon is that of Horseshoe Hammond, with Las Vegas Strip dispositions having faded into the hazy yon.

Greff espies “incremental evidence of a recovery in Las Vegas and a sequential pick up in most other regional markets.” The “quite strong” March results, however, don’t include meaningful numbers of Baby Boomers, evidently fighting shy of the Covid-opportunity zones that some Strip casinos present. As vaccinations continue to ramp upward, Greff expects this problem to abate. His estimates for 3Q21 and 4Q21 are unchanged “but we can see a scenario where our/Consensus estimates here may be too conservative.” Also, if people continue to behave carelessly and Covid-19 rates keep spiking, that’s going to kick the nascent gaming recovery into a cocked hat.

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Virginia sports betting debuts large; ‘CSI’ back in Vegas

Virginia has now had two full months of sports betting and February handle was an impressive $266 million—not quite the explosion that Michigan was but still noteworthy as the second-biggest debut in U.S. history. Reacted PlayUSA analyst Dustin Gouker, “The nation’s major operators have the resources to engage bettors in new markets in ways that were impossible in the early days of legalization, which benefits later-comers like Virginia. Ultimately, that will mean a market that goes through fewer growing pains than some of the earlier adopters.” Compared to other states, Super Bowl handle wasn’t bad: $19.5 million. Revenue was $12 million but books went overboard with promotional credits, ending up with a $3 million loss. The tax haul was a scant $300,593. FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM and BetRivers were all on the field, joined just before the Super Bowl by William Hill. This month brought the entry of WynnBet, which should reap some of the rewards of March Madness … to a degree. Virginia law forbids betting on in-state teams, which could mute interest in the NCAA tournament.

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Massachusetts gaming a success; Cuomo gains upper hand in NY

A University of Massachusetts Amherst panel led by respected academic Rachel Volberg has been studying casino gambling in Massachusetts and likes most of what it finds. It concluded that Bay State dollars had been significantly repatriated from neighboring states (the primary goal of legalization) and there was “no negative impact” on the state lottery. Citizens were fleeing the state in smaller numbers, going from 33% of cross-border business in 2013-4 to 16% in 2019. Bay Staters who were gamblers went up by 14% in the same period. 70% of study participants identified themselves as regular gamblers, while 3.5% admitted to being problem gamblers, with another 12.5% identified as at-risk. A fifth of them devolved into problem gambling while most pulled back into recreational gambling. Heavy ad blitzes “precipitated relapse. We can’t prove that but it’s very tantalizing,” said investigator Robert Williams. He added that “there is no ‘silver bullet’ to prevent problem gambling. Rather, a wide array of educational and policy initiatives is needed to address the multifaceted biopsychosocial” causes.

Low-income men were the likeliest to develop disordered-gambling habits, with substance abuse and mental ill-health cited as co-presenting morbidities. “Each problem gambler has a unique array of risk factors,” Williams said. “You need to tackle problem gambling from a multidirectional way as well.” Paradoxically, 9% of self-identified problem gamblers denied anything was wrong. The UMass teams recommendations include a cap on casino advertising, more education on problem gambling and active encouragement of disordered gamblers to seek treatment. Concluded Massachusetts Gaming Commission Chairwoman Cathy Judd-Stein, “There has been no other longitudinal study of gambling behavior of this scale in the United States. It shapes our understanding of gambling behavior in Massachusetts and contributes to the few comparable studies worldwide.” Agreed. Let’s hope it’s the start of a trend. Your turn, Nevada.

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Caesars Saints?; Mattress Mack returns

Don’t like the misshapen circles which now represent Caesars Entertainment? Well, get used to them, especially if you’re a New Orleans Saints fan. The casino giant is dickering with the Mercedes-Benz Superdome for naming rights, although Saints and New Orleans Pelicans Senior Vice President of Communications Greg Bensel grumps that “there is not a signed deal with any company at this time. We continue to have conversations with numerous interested companies.” Yes, but how many of them are as heavily invested in the New Orleans area as Caesars? Its Kate Whiteley demurred that “we have nothing to share beyond our current, valuable relationship with the teams.” There’s also the question of throwing tens of millions (at least $60 million) at naming rights at a time when Caesars casinos are snowballing a reputation as outdated, unkempt properties … something that company itself has obliquely acknowledged. (Former CEO Gary Loveman ran the company into the ground and successor Mark Frissora was mainly tasked with rearranging debt, er, deck chairs on this particular Titanic.)

At present, Harrah’s New Orleans is the subject of a $400 million renovation and expansion, which will culminate in its renaming as Caesars New Orleans. One thing that we like about CEO Tom Reeg is that, unlike Loveman, he’s not shy about deploying the prestigious Caesars brand name, previously reserved for really important destinations like … Windsor, Ontario. The Superdome would be the fourth, casino-affiliated stadium in major league sports, joining Gila River Arena (hockey’s Arizona Coyotes), Mohegan Sun Arena (home of the WNBA‘s Connecticut Sun) and Hard Rock Stadium, venue of the Miami Dolphins. The makeshift home of the Las Vegas AcesMandalay Bay Event Center—doesn’t count. While it might not be the highest and best use of CZR bucks, we see no reason not to have a Caesars Superdome, do you?

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A Very Different Approach

On February 23, my blog addressed the subject of quitting while you’re ahead and other similar strategies that do absolutely nothing to the expected return of a game. I received a number of comments to that blog, including the one I’m going to share with you today: 

“I stop when I’ve won a decent jackpot, usually a four-of-a-kind that kicks out $200 or more. I’m good with winning a $200 hand. $200 will buy a nice evening out with my wife, so really, we both win.”

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Circa picketed; Sundry green shoots in Vegas; Sports book busted

If you cruise by Circa, you’re liable to see members of Teamsters Local 986 walking a picket line on behalf of the ‘Circa Seven,’ a group of unfortunate warehouse workers. The seven were employed by Derek StevensThree Corners company, which services Circa. What caused the Circa Seven to get the axe? According to the Teamsters, it discovered they were pursuing union membership and gave them the chop. “The Circa Seven came to work, informed that their jobs were ‘outsourced’ to [subcontractor] QLI and then fired without warning,” claims Local 986 Secretary-Treasurer Chris Griswold. “It is heartless of this company to displace its own workers during the worst health crisis in a century.” If you agree with the Teamsters, you can make your feelings known online. If you side with Stevens, you of course don’t need to do anything … except maybe cross a picket line.

Room rates on the Las Vegas Strip were tanking this time last year, so maybe improvement is in eye of the beholder but they continue to trend upward. For April 18-24 they’re 28% higher, averaging $129/night, including an encouraging 2% improvement in weekday rates (weekends are up an eye-popping 73%). Mind you, at that time last year the averages were -33% midweek, -56% weekend and -44% overall. Caesars Entertainment is seeing a 23% midweek climb and a 106% improvement on the weekend. Venelazzo leapt 185% weekends and 50% weekdays. Convention-dependent MGM Resorts International saw only a 1% midweek nudge, plus a 70% weekend uptick, while Wynncore tumbled 26% midweek, even on such an easy comparison, and bumped up just 12% on the weekend. Was it too soon for Encore to reopen?

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Coronavirus V: The Blackjack Call

The Blackjack Ball, an annual get-together of professional gamblers, was historically hosted by Max Rubin over New Year’s, when the big card-counting teams would create their own fireworks all over Vegas. It was great fun while it lasted. But New Year’s became a victim of its own success. Vegas is so crowded on holiday weekends that getting a room, a parking spot, or a seat at a blackjack table is almost impossible, and certainly more trouble than it’s worth. And, the big-team model went extinct. The Uston team is no more (though some of its original players are still out there). The Czech team isn’t even a distant memory. The MIT team lives on only in the movies. Do any of the Greeks even play anymore? Hyland’s old gang is mostly doing other stuff. The Holy Rollers are now a decentralized swarm of counting zombies.

With no more counting teams to accommodate, The Blackjack Ball these days is scheduled to avoid the chaos of New Year’s. But the pandemic brought a whole new type of chaos. While the casinos probably would have loved to see a hundred of the world’s top APs (who are mostly 50+ years old) wiped out by a single superspreader event, it was not in the cards for 2021.

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