Those were Todd Beamer’s last words to the outside world before he, Mark Bingham, Tom Burnett, Jeremy Glick, and other passengers successfully sacrificed Flight 93, on September 11 twenty years ago. There are a few flashbulb images that will never leave me from that day. The smoking World Trade Center tower is the one we all remember. It was around 6:30 am when I rolled into my room at the now Bridger Inn in downtown Vegas after scouting and playing all night. I still didn’t feel like sleeping, so I turned on the TV and watched events unfold live. The initial reports were that a small plane had hit the tower, and we mostly thought it wasn’t a big deal, other than the fire. And the 1993 bombing hadn’t moved the needle for most of the nation, or the world. When the second plane hit on live TV, and then the towers fell, we all collectively thought, “Whoa, who knew THAT could happen [architecturally speaking]!?!” When flights everywhere got grounded, I got stuck in Vegas. This was real, and had already affected all of us.
Continue reading Are you guys ready? Let’s roll.Illinois, how could you?; 888 is Caesars’ lucky number
Count on Illinois to disappoint in an otherwise balmy August. True, it grossed a not-shabby $108 million but it was 8.5% down from 2o19, as business slipped 10% from July’s level. (We don’t want to say the gaming recovery is waning but it does appear to have peaked, judging by regional trends.) The preponderance of revenue came from northern Illinois and nearly half of that purely from Rivers Casino Des Plaines, which won $41.5 million, defying the odds to rise 10%. From there it was way down to Grand Victoria‘s $13.5 million (-6%) and Harrah’s Joliet‘s $13 million (-14%). Hollywood Aurora grossed $9 million (-12%) and Empress Joliet brought in $7 million, plunging 29%. Mid-state, Jumer’s Casino Rock Island, in its first month as a Bally’s Corp. property, plummeted 35% to $4 million—Bally’s CEO George Papanier will have his hands full—while Par-A-Dice slid 15.5% to $5 million.
In the southern tier, DraftKings Casino Queen was down 18% to $7 million while Argosy Belle tumbled 23.5% to $3 million. Harrah’s Metropolis slid 21% to $5 million. Mandatory mask-wearing was reimposed on Aug. 30, so we’ll have to wait and see if that put a damper on this month’s results. In the meantime, slot routes continue to spread, dimming the prospects of casinos new and old alike. Sports betting hit a lull in July, with $369 million in handle and some worry that the state’s in-person registration requirement could dampen a football-season rebound. Said PlayUSA‘s Joe Boozell, “Because in-person registration was reinstated in April at the beginning of the slow season in sports betting, the industry has skirted the most severe effects of the state rule. But there will be no hiding from it during football season.”
Continue reading Illinois, how could you?; 888 is Caesars’ lucky numberMaryland, Ohio prosper; Sands scraping bottom in Macao
Regional gaming continues to be a gravy train. Maryland casinos grossed $168.5 million in August, up 9% from 2019. Just think how much better the take would have been had the month not been two weekend days shorter than August 2020. MGM National Harbor led the pack with $67.5 million, up 8%, while Maryland Live‘s 35% market share translated into $59.5 million in revenue, a 12% gain. Horseshoe Baltimore actually managed to lose ground, down 1.5% to $18 million. Ocean Downs neared $10 million, up 12%, while Hollywood Perryville grossed $8 million in a 21.5% leap. Rocky Gap Resort brought in $6 million for a 10% uptick.
Yesterday, Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli predicted a 19% upsurge in Ohio when August receipts were tallied. He overshot his mark … just barely. The Buckeye State rose 18% to gross $194 million. Wrote JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, “We note that results for the full month indicate that rising delta variant infection rates have not yet negatively impacted visitation/revenue, consistent with recent commentary from operators.” Slots-only MGM Northfield Park led the state with $23 million, up 12% and edging Hollywood Columbus‘ $21 million (+10.5%). Hollywood Toledo made $19.5 million, up 13%, but Scioto Downs came on fast, +22%, to win $20 million. Even the smaller fry were prospering. Hollywood Dayton grossed $12.5 million, a 25% leap, Hollywood Mahoning Valley captured $13.5 million, hopping 21%, and Belterra Park gained 9% to $8 million.
Continue reading Maryland, Ohio prosper; Sands scraping bottom in MacaoWould This Be a Better Strategy?
Assume you’re playing 9/6 Jacks or Better and you’re still at the stage in your playing career where you need to regularly consult a strategy card. You’re dealt 2♠ 3♥ 4♣ 6♦ 9♠.
Experienced players know you throw all five cards away. But this is not an experienced player we’re talking about. This is a beginner — at least to this game. At least to the ranks of players who play using a computer-generated rule. The unsuited 2346, a 4-card inside straight with no high cards, is held in some games. Such a player might well ask: “Is this particular 4-card inside straight held in this game?”
Continue reading Would This Be a Better Strategy?Further growth projected for Vegas; Arizona sports betting upheld
As we await tomorrow’s reopening of Main Street Station, a set of projections comes from Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli that should have Las Vegas casino owners rubbing their hands with glee. Mind you, Santarelli might be erring on the side of caution: He expected Las Vegas Strip casino winnings to rise 5% in July and they vaulted 46.5%. Nevertheless, he foresees 26% Strip growth (up from a previous 14%) once last month’s earnings are tallied. Elsewhere he sees a deceleration in the fevered pace of gambling revenue. Vegas locals will be up, but by just 6.5%, Missouri should be up 7%, Indiana will gain 14% and Ohio will boom 19%. The one area of implosion will be Louisiana, down 19% and the explanation is quite simple—Hurricane Ida. “While July GGR trends, helped in part by a favorable calendar which included two extra weekend days, were robust across all markets in terms of their rate of change relative to 2019, we expect August trends, as the calendar dynamic reverses, to show a deceleration,” Santarelli explained.
Continue reading Further growth projected for Vegas; Arizona sports betting upheldCosmopolitan drinks its own bathwater
Late yesterday Bloomberg broke the news that Blackstone Inc. is shopping The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas … for a $5 billion minimum price. What’s even more incredible is that apparently it has suckers, er, corporations already on the hook. Why is the asking price so absurd? Consider that the Cosmo was built for $3.9 billion back in 2010 and that Blackstone obtained it from Deutsche Bank for a fire-sale $1.7 billion. We’re talking some serious profiteering here, folks. (Ya ever hear of depreciation, Blackstone?) Consider also that the Cosmo has 3,027 rooms while $4 billion Aria has 4,000 and $4.3 billion Resorts World Las Vegas boasts 3,506. So Blackstone wants more money for a smaller property. They’ve got some nerve.
Even crazier is that Apollo Management, not yet having taken the $6.25 billion keys to Venelazzo, is already circling the Cosmo and that MGM Resorts International might splurge on the megaresort, perhaps with a view to augmenting CityCenter. Does Bill Hornbuckle light cigars with $100 bills? Between a $9 billion commitment to Osaka and a potential $5 billion-plus indulgence on the Cosmo, MGM hardly seems the epitome of carefully targeted investment. (Remember that the Japanese casino can only occupy 3% of the megaresort’s total square footage.) At Blackstone’s initial put, one would have to generate a near-impossible $600 million in annual cash flow to have a prayer of a 15% return on investment. In other words, it would have to be THE GREATEST GAMING JUGGERNAUT OF ALL TIME. And if you believe that, let me sell you this bridge in Brooklyn … Apollo may cover its ass by going halves with Vici Properties but we’re still talking a helluva heavy lift. Normally it would be cheaper to buy than build on the Strip but these are far-from-normal times.
Continue reading Cosmopolitan drinks its own bathwaterFall of the Packer empire; Culinary Union’s kabuki theatre
The house that the late Kerry Packer built continues to go from bad to worse to downright awful under the all-thumbs leadership of heir James Packer. During the first half of this year Crown Resorts lost $191 million (on a 33% revenue decline), not to mention getting its Sydney casino license shelved, sparking a flurry of other investigations. Now Oaktree Capital is abandoning its $2.3 billion attempt to buy out Packer’s share, which is a dire turn of events, as authorities will continue to frown upon Crown as long as the younger Packer is around to screw things up. As Reuters put it, “The loss, which Crown had already flagged, and the failure of the Oaktree deal show the extent to which its future is being shaped by regulatory scrutiny as it struggles to rebuild its image amid multiple Royal Commission enquiries.”
Continue reading Fall of the Packer empire; Culinary Union’s kabuki theatreAn Opportunity or a Predicament?
In his recent blog post (which he coincidentally titled the same as mine), Bob Dancer ponders what APs have come to call a scavenging play: The stranger-cum-BFF gambling next to you is about to misplay a hand, and you have the opportunity to correct this injustice, merely by offering a bit of timely advice and bankrolling. For instance, BFF doesn’t have the money to split 88 v 6, and is about to wave off the hand. You charitably offer to help him out by providing the additional chips, and, in a supreme gesture of international cooperation and friendship, suggest teaming up to split all profits or losses. An enduring partnership—through thick and thin, until the very end, of the hand.
Most commonly, the scavenger will jump in to complete a double-down that the BFF was about to double for less, or forgo completely. In games like UTH, the scavenger could complete a 4x preflop wager that the BFF wouldn’t even consider, such as an Ace that the BFF would surely not fold on the river.
Continue reading An Opportunity or a Predicament?Super-spreader event at Caesars nixed; Mega-jottings
Caesars Entertainment must have decided it was poor optics to be hosting a convention of anti-vaxxers at brand-new Caesars Forum as Coronavirus cases spike. Or maybe it blanched at the potential deep-cleaning costs after the event. Either way, QAnon-espousing “Patriot Double Down” will have to find somewhere else if it wants to play Vegas this October. (Have they called the Fertitta Brothers?) Event organizers must be scrambling for a new venue to infect, er, book. The Associated Press reported that it was presently unclear if the show “would be moved, postponed or canceled. Event officials did not immediately respond to telephone and email messages.” But with a top ticket of $3,000, we don’t expect Double Down to just fold its hand. There’s money to be made! Given QAnon followers’ eschatology, we’re frankly surprised they’d choose Sin City for their “Great Awakening” but so be it. (Good luck getting them to comply with mask mandates.) We’re talking about a city where Las Vegas Raiders fans would rather forfeit their tickets than get vaccinated. Nor does it seem like one can hold a public meeting in Clark County without being inundated with screaming anti-vaxxers. Las Vegas has so many already it scarcely needs to import more. Meanwhile, the number of Sin City vaccination mandates continues to grow, a laudable trend.
Continue reading Super-spreader event at Caesars nixed; Mega-jottingsColin Jones (S1 E10 Finale): The Ultimate Vindication (or, A Cover Play Made in the Forest)
Throughout The 21st-Century Card Counter, Colin Jones interviews former students who have gone off into the wild to ply their trade. There’s a bit of publication bias, because we don’t hear about the train wrecks, but that’s understandable. The success stories are still entertaining and educational, and include sufficient misery. Whenever I read those reports of extended losing periods, I send CJ a mental thank-you for reminding me—as he does throughout his book—why counting cards isn’t for everyone, certainly not someone as soft as I am.
Now comes “Joe” [not his real name], who turned $10k into $1 million! Do you know how hard that is? Imagine being thrown into prison, and digging a two-mile tunnel using nothing but a plastic spoon. Joe did it without the spoon! That result, and the four-year journey it took, makes Joe an instant authority on card counting in the, um, 21st century. Yeah, what Colin said.
Continue reading Colin Jones (S1 E10 Finale): The Ultimate Vindication (or, A Cover Play Made in the Forest)