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Honeymoon in Vegas? Try Halloween in Vegas

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

Unless you want to “get married in blood” at the Little Chapel and do both. It’s the best of times and quite possibly the wildest. And I’ve DJ’d some very wild parties where when I put on Nelly’s “ Hot in Here,” half the room actually did take off their clothes. So in Vegas my “wildest” means it.

If you haven’t experienced Vegas’ end of October’s hallowed eve, believe me when I say it’s a thriller, a valley-wide party to die for. Just don’t actually die, okay? Fake the ghost-pale complexion, blood and rubber knife in your head, and appropriately, or inappropriately if that’s your poison, you can be all you wanna be, whether it’s a Chippendale, a dungeon master, a vampire bride with a blood lust that can’t be satisfied, or just a hottie in a French maids outfit. Guys too, anything goes.

Indulge your cross-dresser fantasy or drag your willing partner or partners in leather and chains or have her/him/them do it to you and any other kinky crazy themes you desire to display.

No one will bat an eye, but there may be some actual bats and “can I join in?” or “How did you build the Eiffel Tower on your head out of chopsticks?” Hint: Make it sturdy.

Planning on winning one of the many incredible costume contests or just wanna stand out? Invest some time, money, and ingenuity, because every dirty, sexy, gory, crazy, funny, silly, spooky fantasy will be parading down Fremont and at one of the killer club parties or the dozens of major themed events. Vamping or vampirelling, it’s all happpening in Vegas under the howling good-time October moon.

On the Record gives away some serious four-figure cash for best costume. Arriving at Park MGM, a pickup truck pulled up and three folks unloaded … really, I wouldn’t even call them costumes, more like parade floats.

Madelon Hynes’ article LVRJ.com/Halloween/2024 has a comprehensive list of events valley wide.

Area 15 becomes Scaria 15. There are by my count three Rocky Horror-themed events. And the entertainment options? Spooky good. Check who’s playing between the 26th and 30th: Adelle, Alice Cooper, Billy Idol, Earth Wind and Fire, The Jonas Brothers, Katy Perry, SZA, Travis Scott, U2 Sphere concert movie, Usher … phew… And in the clubs? Steve Aoki, The Chainsmokers, DJ Snake, Zedd, and a host of others.

And the weather is great finally.

I’ve done Vegas Super Bowl, July 4th and New Year’s, but Halloween takes the cake.

Though this blog is late to go this year it will give you a heads up, so you can plan for next.

Leave the candy at home. There’ll be plenty of eye candy. Bring your vampire queen or queens, your whips and chains. Rocky Horror will be there and you’ll never be the same.

BTW, no advantage play was harmed in the creation of this article.

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On the radio

This morning saw (heard?) us do a guest stint on KNPR-FM‘s State of Nevada. We expounded on various and sundry topics, mostly Global Gaming Expo and the sorry condition of what passes for casino regulation in Nevada. Smoking in casinos—and why it persists—was dwelt upon, as was the failsino that Bally’s Corp. is fancifully planning for the Tropicana Las Vegas site. After his laughable project design was met with much Sin City derision, Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim was quick to walk it back, via his reliable PR organ, the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

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What It Takes to Lose

Bob Dancer

I have a gambling partner, “Abe,” and, in 2024, we split gambling wins and losses 50-50. Our partnership encompasses video poker, slots, and occasionally other games. I am the stronger partner when it comes to video poker, although the difference between us is shrinking. He is stronger on slots, overall, but I am more knowledgeable about certain games.

Abe and I recently played at an out-of-Las Vegas casino, accompanied by our wives, and also accompanied by “Bo,” who is one of our slot gurus. Bo is a man who lives outside of Nevada, makes a very nice living playing slots, and sometimes shares information with us. We saw a new game at the casino. Bo had heard about it and had some good ideas about how to beat it.

The game needed to be played a lot by others before it was ready for us to play it. The right conditions didn’t happen at this casino, so we didn’t play.

When we returned to Las Vegas, we found that game in several casinos, but usually not in a beatable condition. Eventually we found a game that met our criteria. I took a picture and texted that to Bo. He agreed conditions were right. He said that if he were in town, he’d snap it up. Although he didn’t have data on this particular game, he believed that it was similar to other games he knew well and that we should hit the jackpot within the next six hours or so.

Over the next 18 hours, Abe and I played this game and proceeded to lose $27,000, at which point we “pulled the plug” and gave up on it. The top jackpot was still on the machine and not in our pockets. Possibly we’ll play this game in the future, once more data is obtained, but right now we’re not sure if it’s not as Bo believed it was, or if we were just plain unlucky. Either explanation could be correct.

Most players wouldn’t have lost that much on the game. To do that, you had to have the bankroll and a lot of confidence that you’re on the “right side.” Relatively few players have that combination of bankroll and knowledge, at least on this game at the present time.

The vast majority of slot players believe the house has the advantage on whichever game they’re playing. They might try a game, see how it goes, and leave before they’ve lost too much. They probably would never have played this game for the stakes we were playing simply because they were unfamiliar with the game and didn’t recognize what a profitable opportunity it presented.

The three of us, Abe, Bo, and me, are now analyzing what happened. Our current “best guess” is that we were on the right side of the game and got unlucky. Over time, we’ll collect more data and come to a more definite conclusion as to the profitability of this particular game under these conditions.

The knowledge and willingness to gamble that we have has served us well over time — just not this time. 

Oh well, we’ll shake it off and keep doing what we’re doing.

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Silliness, sleaze and s**t

That dingbatty mess you’re contemplating is the proposed “master plan” for Bally’s Las Vegas. Or whatever it will be called. If it gets built. A big “if.” Since it centers upon the proposed—but still improbable—Sacramento Athletics stadium in the middle, it’s more that a colossal “IF.” Before we get into why this megaresort is highly unlikely to transpire, let’s unpack what passes for a design.

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How I Found Treasure Perusing the MRB!

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

Happiness is full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better with a $500 coupon!

So I’m lounging in bed with some Haagen Dasz (2-for-1) and perusing my Member Rewards Book wondering what coupons I’ll have left for my end-of-year Vegas trip, when I stumble on a treasure.

Wait. Did I read that right? A royal flush $500 free-play bonus? At the Plaza? In the Sand Dollar Lounge? Am I DREAMING? Great music and free drinks playing Jacks or Better at 100.65?

It took all my self-control not to jump on a plane, but I’m still recovering from my recent medical emergencies and surgeries, so I’m handing it to all you APs.

I love the Plaza (will be writing more about it in the next few blogs). CEO Jonathan Jossel is doing everything right, in my humble opinion.

Like the Plaza’s recent EDM Festival in the parking lot (I love the band Jungle) and their FP VP, single- zero roulette, matchplays, Pink Box donuts, Hash House A Go Go, pizza, and much more. Also their location at the Circa end of Fremont Street’s not too shabby either.

I’ve tried to use my free-champagne MRB coupon at Circa, but I keep getting comped. Wow. It’s a tough job, but hey, somebody, right?

Trivia: The Plaza bought the first round of Fontainebleau furniture sold off by Carl Icahn out of bankruptcy. Nice.

But I digress.

I loved 9/6 JOB (mostly graduated to higher tighter VP). Back in the day, it was my go-to game, with its low variance and two units for your second pair. God Bless America, that’s a beautiful thing. Sorry, Macklemore! (That’s a Plaza joke.) And now I can play it with a $500 free play bonus? Katie (Perry?) bar the door — right after I get in.

Adding .1% for comps and using the Wizard of Odds calculator, I get a return percentage of 100.68.

If you win, there’s a slight EV loss playing $500 free Play through 9/6 JOB. Or heck, go throw it at the slots. Your choice, baby.

How did I miss this fabulous advantage-play coupon until now?

I do peruse Anthony’s list in the Las Vegas Advisor of the expected value of the MRB’s gambling coupons, but this coupon wasn’t there! And the coupon index in the back of the MRB listed it simply as a royal flush bonus. Yawn. Most of them are like … well, they’re not $500 in free play.

Glad I was actually looking through the MRB. It’s coupon 46.

And here’s my challenge: Try walking into Pink Box and buying just one donut. Then go over to the Sand Dollar and soak up some positive expectation JoB, great music, and free drinks.

If you hit it, send a photo to A.C. for the weekly YouTube and thank me in the comments.

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Atlantic City & other distractions

Atlantic City dip; Another strike in Motown? 2

Expect many cries of anguish and much rending of garments from Big Gaming over the September casino grosses from Atlantic City. To hear them tell it, the Boardwalk is going to dry up and blow away any minute now. What’s the latest provocation? Last month’s tally of $230.5 million was 6.5% down from last year—but 3% higher than pre-pandemic 2019. And there was one weekend less than last year, which ought to soften the blow. iGaming, meanwhile, was a bonanza, leaping 27% year/year.

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Hockey Knights in Vegas Episode 83: Don’t Look Now, the VGK Are for Real

Hockey Knights in Vegas is BACK!

Well well well. Prior to the season, pundits and media from all over the NHL had basically written off the Vegas Golden Knights for this season: too many goals left via free agency and trades; not enough fire power; and on and on.

Well, whaddaya know. The VGK started the regular season 3-0-0 with convincing wins over Colorado, St. Louis, and Anaheim. This year’s top line of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Ivan Barbishev are the hottest in the NHL and Eichel is leading the league with 7 points through three games.

Eddie and Chris break down the VGK’s (not-so) surprising start top to bottom and share why this year’s team could be building for a long playoff run.

The VGK are off on their first road trip of the season, beginning with a visit to our nations capital and a reunion with former VGK goaltender Logan Thompson.

You won’t want to miss the hot takes! All this and much more on Episode 83 of Hockey Knights in Vegas!

Want all things VGK on all new platforms around the internet?
Connect with Hockey Knights in Vegas and follow us on your favorite social media and streaming platforms!
All Links – https://www.hockeyknightsvegas.com
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Does Playing Multiple Lines to Reduce Variance Work in Slots?

Bob Dancer

I wrote a blogpost a few weeks ago saying that playing Ten Play has less variance than Five Play which has less variance than Triple Play which has less variance than single-line play, assuming you’re playing the same total bet. A comment was posted, unanswered by others, which asked: “Would this apply to all games of chance, including slots?”

My answer is that slots generally do not have the same structure as the Triple Play family of games. And by the Triple Play structure, I mean all lines have the same starting position after the deal. I certainly haven’t studied all varieties of slot machines, so maybe . . .

In the accumulative type of slots that I play, every combination of denomination and number of coins bet is in a different position except immediately after the machine is installed or the machine is reset. In a hypothetical Yellow Bob machine, let’s say they have a Mini meter, a Minor meter, and a Major meter. 

At any given point, the meters from bottom to top, might be 7-10-8 for 1¢ 100 coins; 12-19-9 for 1¢ 200 coins; and 15-10-12 for 1¢ 500 coins, etc. Each of these have a different EV. Playing the 100-coin version in this case would be a worse bet than the others simply because the meters are lower, not because you’re betting fewer coins. Depending on how frequently the jackpots come about, and how much each spin is worth on average when it does hit, either the $2 or the $5 game could be the better play. It’s possible that none of these have an EV exceeding 100%.

Let’s say the same machine also has games for 2¢, 5¢, and 10¢ — each having three different “number of coins.” That’s 12 separate games you have to check. Any of them might be the best play right now. Or, most often, none of them.

Some manufacturers give you a higher return for higher denominations. That is, maybe the 1¢ and 2¢ games, in all three “number of coins” variations, have an overall return of 90% and the 5¢ and 10¢ versions have an overall return of 92%. You either have to have inside information on the RTPs (return to players), or capture a lot of data to know if this is true.

This would seem to imply that the higher denominations are a better bet, but that’s not necessarily the case. Assume “average” meter readings, betting $5 at a 90% rate means you’re losing 50¢ per pull on average. Betting $50 at a 92% rate (still assuming average meter readings), means you’re losing $4 per pull.

One older game, called Clover Link Xtreme, has games in the four denominations we’ve discussed. You can have penny games with 500 coins (for a $5 bet), a nickel game with 100 coins bet (for the same $5 bet) and a dime game with 50 coins (again for the same $5 bet). These three separate games will all become positive at the same time. In this case, you want to be playing the dime game because hitting the Mini on the penny game is worth $10 while hitting the Mini on the dime game is worth $100. This is the only game I know that’s like this, but, again, I certainly don’t know all the games.

On slots that don’t accumulate, playing the higher denominations may have a better percentage return. So, if you’re playing until you reach a specific goal, say 1,000 tier credits, you may lose less on average if you play it on higher denominations — if this is a machine where the larger denominations yield a higher percentage. This will be a higher EV, but also higher variance. The amount you bet each hand is a key part of the variance calculation.

Keep in mind, though, that these slots rarely return any percentage close to what you can get playing video poker. Even bad video poker games return more than most slot machines. If you have the knowledge to know which video poker machines to play, and know how to play them reasonably well, that’s a much better bet than most slot machines. If you know how to identify advantage slots and can find them in a positive state, slots can certainly be more lucrative than video poker. But slot knowledge is hard to come by, and you’ll have lots of competition. There is some information in Michael Shackleford’s latest version of Gambling 102, and a more comprehensive book about slots is in the works at Huntington Press. I don’t know when it will be released.

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Bally’s flops & other news

Bally’s Casino in Chicago is a dud. A flop. Maybe not an outright debacle (although being smack in the heart of downtown, it should have been doing better) but an inarguable disappointment, one that augurs poorly for $1.2 billion Bally’s Chicago—a Bally’s casino in name only. How do we know this? Because Hard Rock Rockford opened its permanent casino in August, enjoyed its first full month in September and zoomed straight past Bally’s and almost everyone else into second place in Illinois. That’s a staggering achievement and makes Bally’s failure to gain traction all the more stark.

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