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WHAT IS RETURN IN VIDEO POKER & HOW CAN IT BE CALCULATED?

This post is syndicated by the Las Vegas Advisor for the 888 casino group. Anthony Curtis comments on the 888 article introduced and linked to on this page.

AC says:

If you’re interested in figuring out what the return percentage was for a particular playing session or period of time, this article gives you the correct formula to do that. However, I’m not sure what the value is in doing so. Players like to whine about losses, so calculating that you just played for three hours with a return of 68.5% provides good ammunition for the woe-is-me tale, but it doesn’t give you information you can act on to improve future results. In fact, letting a bad session on a good game dissuade you from playing it again is a big mistake. Far more important is knowing going in what the long-term return percentages are for the games you have to choose from, then, in most cases, playing the game with the highest return. 

This article was written by Jerry Stich in association with 888Casino.

WHAT IS RETURN IN VIDEO POKER & HOW CAN IT BE CALCULATED?

Most serious video poker players understand what elements define a good game. These elements include return, variance, and strategy complexity. For most serious players, return is the main element considered when choosing a video poker game to play.

Many video poker players understand what return is. Fewer understand how video poker return varies during play. Fewer still know how to calculate their actual return for a session, day, trip, or year. This article addresses these topics.

Keep reading …

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Junior’s Cheesecake, Resorts World

Junior's Cheesecake, Resorts World

Junior’s Cheesecake was founded in 1950 in the heart of Brooklyn on Flatbush Avenue (and DeKalb). The original restaurant remains in place 74 years later; Junior’s has four other locations: two in Times Square, one at Foxwoods, and the 300-seat venue that opened at Resorts World in late February in the space formerly occupied by the Kitchen. Junior’s is, essentially, Resorts World’s new coffee shop.

Junior’s is renowned for the best cheesecake in New York City and beyond, with 25 varieties, plus rich and fancy cakes and pies, along with pastries, brownies, cookies, and more.

It’s also a full-service deli and New York-style diner, with a huge menu of breakfast items and soups, salads, sandwiches, steaks, seafood, barbecue, and chef’s specialties.

On our visit, we opted for the cup of soup and half-sandwich ($19.95), in order to try the matzo ball and corned beef. But the half-san comes on a roll (on the menu, it’s actually called a “plain roll”) and you can’t substitute for bread.

We weren’t about to have a Jewish-style-deli corned-beef sandwich on a hamburger bun (it’s against our religion), so we got the full sandwich (also $19.95, with the soup at $7.95).

We snuck a photo of the half-san on a bun from the table next to ours. Pretty weak.

The sandwich was big, as expected, but not among the better corned beefs we’ve known and loved — dry and tasteless. It comes on marbled rye (so much for good Jewish caraway-seeded rye, let alone double baked) and the house-brand mustard was bland. Likewise, the matzo ball was big and light, but the soup was really salty, indicating the lack of chicken-soup finesse. And the $29.15 (before tax and tip) left us even more unimpressed.

We also got a slice of cheesecake to bring back to the office. That did live up to its reputation. Everyone agreed: rich, creamy, sweet with a little tang, firm rather than full of air, with a soft crust. Redemption!

We’ll probably give Junior’s another chance in the breakfast or all-day-dining department, but so far, we’re considering it go-to place for a decadent dessert.

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Station triumphant; Notes from Virginia

It was a great sign for investors in Station Casinos when the company accelerated its 2Q24 earnings report to yesterday. Station execs were clearly bursting with good news. As Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas summarized, Durango Resort continues to be boffo, with same-store results at most other Station properties stable and cannibalization of former flagship Red Rock Resort no worse than expected. A hastened Phase II enlargement of Durango was formally announced this afternoon but it was the worst-kept secret in Las Vegas for quite some time.

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Bobby Vegas: My Mirage Memories Are Many and Good

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

Shim Lin. Simply incredible. Glad he relocated. I went with Mr. H who loves magic and we were both dumbfounded. Shim stands there stock still, sleeves rolled up, palms out, and cards appear and disappear. No props, just magic. It’s amazing.

Then there was The Beatles Love. Three times. Last year I took clients and warned them, “Guys, this will totally blow your minds.” “Yeah yeah, Bobby. C’mon, let’s get a drink.” We were up close. And all they could say was, “OMG!” I took Hector, in his 20s, and he was stunned that I knew the words to every song. “Hector … it’s THE BEATLES.”

The Secret Garden was Vegas’ best-kept secret. I begged people to go and watch the baby dolphins swimming with their parents and the white tigers. What a great respite from the frenzy of the Strip. Few took me up on it, though anyone who did thanked me profusely.

I had a nice suite compliments of Laurence Scott when we were working on my Non-Linear Dynamics Recurrence Theory Roulette project together.

And I really miss the Carnegie Deli. Pastrami and latkes, oh my.

Finally, the grand slam. Well, more of a hole in one.

With one of my lighting manufacturers, Charlie and I had landed a really nice deal with Guy who lived in Vegas. We wanted to do something special. So Guy suggested they play a round at Shadow Creek, Steve Wynn’s ultra-exclusive high-roller golf course. At the time, the only way was to stay at a Wynn property and it was still $500 each to play. So Charlie and I flew in and were staying at the Mirage. I got there first and the receptionist said, “I see you’re playing at Shadow Creek. Oh dear, we seem to have a problem. I need to put you on the 24th floor.”

I didn’t know what that meant until I opened the double doors to a suite that was literally larger than my condo back in DC. Old school, with the TV rising from the foot of the bed.

Anyway, I don’t play golf, so it was just Charlie and Guy. They had an early tee time and we agreed to meet afterwards. They had major grins on their faces.

“So how was it? How was your game?”

They looked at each other, broke out in giggles like two stoned schoolkids, and exclaimed, “We met Michael Jordan! In the locker room!”

“We were changing after our round and he walked in asked us how our game went!” And they started laughing again.

“So? How was your game?”

“Who cares? we met Michael Jordan!”

All I could say was, “One question. Since you were changing, what was it? Boxers or briefs?”

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I Was a Little Uneasy — Part II of II

Bob Dancer

Last week I set the stage where I was playing slots and ran out of cash on hand. It was a game I evaluated at $2,200 and I didn’t have a line of credit at this casino. After being unsuccessful at getting a gambling buddy to come and help, I called my wife Bonnie who agreed to take Lyft and bring me some money. 

Eventually Bonnie shows up — safe, and with an inconspicuous bag of cash. It had taken more than an hour since I first started calling. I was relieved that she made it safely. Once we got set up with $500 inserted into the machine and on the correct game, I asked her if she’d prefer to play or to supervise. She wanted to play!

So, we reviewed the necessary instructions. We do this every time. She might not remember from last time. The key part was to keep hitting the button until one of the bonuses went off. After it’s completed, I’ll re-evaluate whether we should keep playing or quit. Probably a bigger key part was to make sure we were on the right game! The buttons to change denomination are very easy to hit accidentally, or maybe activated when you lay a bottle of water down. It is not that hard to stay on the right game — but it is very easy to inadvertently switch and instead of playing a 125% game you’re playing an 84% game. Bonnie sometimes forgets to concentrate on this. Not often recently, but it has happened and so we review it every time.

The two lower bonuses eventually both go off. The lower of the two going off twice. The net from when Bonnie got there was $1,500 — meaning I lost about $500 on the play. A slightly disappointing result — but the variance on these games is pretty large and that’s part of the game. I had estimated it to be worth $2,200. The fact that it was lower than that doesn’t mean my estimate was bad. Ask any sports bettor about the actual best guess of a score before the game is played — and the final result when it is over.

Bonnie wasn’t ready to go home yet so we walked around until we found another playable game. This time we lost again. Then we found another positive game. And lost again.

The net score was about even from when Bonnie got there — meaning my score would have been the same had I simply abandoned the game and gone home. But I believed the position was worth $2,200 and I was going to try to find a way to turn that into cash if at all possible.

While I was at the casino, I never considered using the ATM machine there. The rates charged in casinos to get your own money are outrageously high and I have always avoided them. In actual fact, I put in $500 when Bonnie got there, and we never added more money. Had I known that would have been the result, it would have been an acceptable option to use the ATM machine.

I don’t know how much these machines charge these days — it probably varies from casino to casino — but $25 would have been cheap enough. The Lyft was $20, and I also had to get Bonnie involved for a couple of hours. But I didn’t know it would be $25. I could have gone through another $2,000 or $3,000 before the bonuses paid off. Even if Bonnie weren’t answering her phone (not intentionally, but sometimes her phone is in a different room than she is) I would have walked away from this “$2,200 opportunity” rather than use the ATM.

But the next day, I submitted a line of credit application at two downtown casinos. I play enough downtown that I need the ability for some “fast cash” on occasion. Not very often, but sometimes. I have been using casino credit for 30 years and have a sterling record of repaying by debts. There is a Central Credit Agency in Las Vegas where all credit information is stored, so getting more credit isn’t a problem. 

And when the lines come through, I will use them a few times even when I don’t need to. When I’m going to be making a big play at one of the casinos, I’ll withdraw $5,000 in cash — no matter what my cash-on-hand status is. And then at the end of the play, I’ll pay the cash back. This establishes a record the casinos want to see.

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IS ANY CASINO GAME EVER ‘DUE’ TO PAY OUT?

This post is syndicated by the Las Vegas Advisor for the 888 casino group. Anthony Curtis comments on the 888 article introduced and linked to on this page.

AC says:

Most have heard the argument that slot machines, as well as numbers on roulette wheels, crap tables, keno games, and the like, don’t become due. Still, many gamblers feel that there is validity in the belief that “being due” is sometimes a factor in gambling games. This article makes the point that “due theories” aren’t valid in games of independent trials, which include those just listed. Interestingly, although not mentioned in the article, in a game like roulette, it’s more likely that a number that has not shown over many spins should be avoided, as its disproportionate number of appearances could be related to a bias in the equipment that’s preventing it from coming up. Essentially, it’s the due theory in reverse. In fact, the converse, which is a number coming up significantly more often than 1-in-38 spins (on a double-zero wheel), is the basis of the winning strategy of playing biased roulette wheels. This idea is touched on in our book Gambling 102—The Best Strategies for All Casino Games and in the chapter on Billy Walters in Gambling Wizards—Conversations with the World’s Greatest Gamblers.

This article was written by Jerry Stich in association with 888Casino.

IS ANY CASINO GAME EVER ‘DUE’ TO PAY OUT?

Serious casino gamblers understand the concept of the return of casino games. Simply put, it is the amount of money bet while playing a casino game that is returned to the player.

Most also understand that the return percentages given are mathematically calculated and are based on an infinite number of bets. They understand the short-term return percentages can vary significantly from the mathematically calculated long-term return percentages.

Few gamblers understand how the transition from short-term to long-term results works. Many gamblers, systems sellers, and pundits also do not understand this phenomenon.

Is any casino game ever due? Read on to find out.

Continue reading …

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Panic at Penn; A tribal triumph

Curiously underreported by the mainstream media (as in, not at all) is a lightening of the ship at Penn Entertainment. The story was broken by Legal Sports Report, which gleaned the news from some evidently unhappy postings at LinkedIn. The sackings come in Penn’s digital division, home to theScore, Hollywood Casino and—most pertinently—embattled ESPN Bet.

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Panty raid in Atlantic City; Acres’ angst

Contrary to this morning’s gloom-and-doom headlines, casinos in Atlantic City did just fine last month. Big Gaming is probably spinning the numbers as bad ones in order to evade A) smoking bans and B) higher taxes. Gambling revenue was $244 million, 1% above last year and 3.5% higher than pre-pandemic 2019. The downside is that the upside was driven by but four casinos out of nine. Bally’s Atlantic City charged out of last place with a 9% surge to $13.5 million. Borgata hopped 6% to $64 million (no surprise there) and Hard Rock Atlantic City rose 12% to $48.5 million. Tail-end Charlie Golden Nugget even managed a 6% jump to $12.5 million.

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I Was a Little Uneasy — Part I of II

Bob Dancer

I’ve written recently about running out of bankroll. Today’s blog is about running out of cash on hand, which is a different thing.

I was playing on Fremont Street. Primarily slots, but there are some video poker games there as well. Four Queens has $1 10/7 Double Bonus, and the three ONE casinos (Circa, D, Golden Gate) have linked progressives for games in denominations between 25¢ and $5 in several different games. 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe (98.5% at a 4,000-coin royal) is the highest-returning game in the mix and sometimes one or more of the denominations are positive. I’d prefer it if there were juicy $5 and $10 games regularly available there, but the situation is what it is.

If I knew going in that I’d be playing a $5 video poker game (say I knew the Circa progressive was at $38,000 last night and if it hasn’t been hit yet, that’s the game I’ll want to play), I pretty much know how much cash to bring with me. I’ve been playing video poker for 30 years and I have experience with such things.

But if I’m going to be playing slots, it’s hard to know how much to bring. Sometimes I’ll find a game for 75¢ a spin that I calculate is returning 120%. That’s not going to take a lot of money. Win or lose, the net result will be a few hundred dollars or less. But sometimes I find a game for $30 or $50 a spin. Even if I calculate that I have a significant advantage, I don’t know whether or not I will win this time — and I might be behind $10k or more before the bonus round pops.

Having too much cash on hand exposes me to risks I’d rather not face. While I’m in fairly good shape (current orthopedic ailments notwithstanding), I’m 77 years old and could be considered a target.

The game I ran into was an $8 per hand game that was positive. Although I had run into a $1,500 buzzsaw earlier in the day, I still had about two grand on me — which was going to be enough maybe 80% of the time. It’s impossible for me to know exactly. The game had four meters on it, and both of the bottom two were in positive territory. I’m figuring to play until I hit both of them. If either or both of the higher meters go off, I’ll be in hog heaven and will definitely have enough to go until I take down the lower two.

Luck wasn’t with me today. I went through my cash on hand. So, what to do?

I called over the slot supervisor and told him the situation. I’d lost $2,000 over the past hour and have no more cash on me. I have plenty of cash about 12 miles away. Will he lock up the machine for me for an hour and allow me to get more “ammunition?”

The slot supervisor was somewhat sympathetic, but he told me it was July 3 and the bosses said no machines could be locked up for the entire holiday weekend. It was 10 p.m. and there was no way he would call them at home over a matter such as this.

So, I started calling some gambling buddies. I have some friends who might be willing to help me out for either a percentage, a flat fee, or whatever they wanted. I’d tell them that I had plenty of cash elsewhere and they’d have their money back the next day at the latest. Plus, I’d owe them a favor down the road. A largely unrestricted favor is pretty valuable.

If we agreed to split the jackpot, that could be a bit tricky. Currently, I estimate my “position” has a value of about $2,200 going forward. The fact that I’ve already put in $2,000 is not relevant going forward. Whoever helps me out would be starting now.

It’s also possible that I could lose starting from right now. I could put in another $2,000 and the bonuses only add up to $1,500. An unexpectedly bad result possible. Whoever takes a piece of this needs to know that winning isn’t guaranteed, and they’ll need to be willing to take a piece of the potential loss as well. If they can’t stand the idea of losing, then their help is only worth 5% or 10% of the bonus rounds. The people I call will understand these things.

Before I started making calls, I put the screen to the $1.20 version of the same game. The meters were low, and no professional would play it. But there are always pros lurking around and I didn’t want to leave the screen showing the juicy game at $8. I’d be sure to get tons of “do you mind if I play that?” questions I didn’t want.

The usual first person I’d call was out of town, so calling him wasn’t going to be useful.

The actual first person I called was Richard Munchkin. He doesn’t play slots, but has a son that does and both know me well enough to trust me both for the money and the ability to calculate that it was a good game. Munchkin’s phone went to voicemail. He turns it off when he goes to bed. I didn’t have the phone number for his son.

The next person I called was planning to leave on an 8-hour road trip at five in the morning. Short of a life-or-death situation, which this wasn’t, he didn’t want to leave his house. I told him to go back to bed.

The third person I called was Bonnie, my 81-year-old wife. While I 100% trust Bonnie with money, she’s a little forgetful. Well, maybe a little bit more than a little bit forgetful. She could easily not remember at which casino I was waiting. My phone had about 5% power and could run out, so I had to be sure she got the complete message the first time. I made sure she had all the information written down and could read it back to me. 

She no longer drives but has taken Lyft enough that she’s reasonably comfortable with that. My biggest fear is that Bonnie is very friendly and talks to everybody. I could imagine her telling the Lyft driver that her husband has run out of money and she was bringing him $5,000. Depending on the Lyft driver, Bonnie’s safety might be at risk. The $5,000 would be the least of our worries. (I’m not bad-mouthing Lyft. I assume that Bonnie would be completely safe with 99%+ of all Lyft or Uber drivers. But you never know for sure that she wouldn’t get one of the rare bad apples.)

While I was waiting, basically nobody bothered me. I was sitting in front of one of several hundred slot machines in the place, and the screen that was showing wasn’t anything special. Which was good. I didn’t want to call attention to myself. When this was finally over, Bonnie and I would be two senior citizens with multiple thousands of dollars on us. Downtown after midnight can be a bit sketchy.

I’ll finish this story next week.

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Tales from the shore; Midsummer slump

Above is what we’re reliably informed is the best reason to visit the lounge at Bally’s Atlantic City—and it’s a pretty good one. It’s an unfettered view of the Atlantic Ocean. Being a beachgazer is probably one of the better ways to amuse oneself in Atlantic City. Gosh knows, help is needed. Outdoor events have been dropping like flies. (The better to keep prospective gamblers indoors?) The biggest domino to fall was the annual air show. Reports our Boardwalk correspondent, “The stated reason is that one of the ‘prime’ acts withdrew. The surprise was that the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds were never in this years show schedule.” A surprise indeed. What gives, USAF?

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