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Panty raid in Atlantic City; Acres’ angst

Contrary to this morning’s gloom-and-doom headlines, casinos in Atlantic City did just fine last month. Big Gaming is probably spinning the numbers as bad ones in order to evade A) smoking bans and B) higher taxes. Gambling revenue was $244 million, 1% above last year and 3.5% higher than pre-pandemic 2019. The downside is that the upside was driven by but four casinos out of nine. Bally’s Atlantic City charged out of last place with a 9% surge to $13.5 million. Borgata hopped 6% to $64 million (no surprise there) and Hard Rock Atlantic City rose 12% to $48.5 million. Tail-end Charlie Golden Nugget even managed a 6% jump to $12.5 million.

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I Was a Little Uneasy — Part I of II

Bob Dancer

I’ve written recently about running out of bankroll. Today’s blog is about running out of cash on hand, which is a different thing.

I was playing on Fremont Street. Primarily slots, but there are some video poker games there as well. Four Queens has $1 10/7 Double Bonus, and the three ONE casinos (Circa, D, Golden Gate) have linked progressives for games in denominations between 25¢ and $5 in several different games. 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe (98.5% at a 4,000-coin royal) is the highest-returning game in the mix and sometimes one or more of the denominations are positive. I’d prefer it if there were juicy $5 and $10 games regularly available there, but the situation is what it is.

If I knew going in that I’d be playing a $5 video poker game (say I knew the Circa progressive was at $38,000 last night and if it hasn’t been hit yet, that’s the game I’ll want to play), I pretty much know how much cash to bring with me. I’ve been playing video poker for 30 years and I have experience with such things.

But if I’m going to be playing slots, it’s hard to know how much to bring. Sometimes I’ll find a game for 75¢ a spin that I calculate is returning 120%. That’s not going to take a lot of money. Win or lose, the net result will be a few hundred dollars or less. But sometimes I find a game for $30 or $50 a spin. Even if I calculate that I have a significant advantage, I don’t know whether or not I will win this time — and I might be behind $10k or more before the bonus round pops.

Having too much cash on hand exposes me to risks I’d rather not face. While I’m in fairly good shape (current orthopedic ailments notwithstanding), I’m 77 years old and could be considered a target.

The game I ran into was an $8 per hand game that was positive. Although I had run into a $1,500 buzzsaw earlier in the day, I still had about two grand on me — which was going to be enough maybe 80% of the time. It’s impossible for me to know exactly. The game had four meters on it, and both of the bottom two were in positive territory. I’m figuring to play until I hit both of them. If either or both of the higher meters go off, I’ll be in hog heaven and will definitely have enough to go until I take down the lower two.

Luck wasn’t with me today. I went through my cash on hand. So, what to do?

I called over the slot supervisor and told him the situation. I’d lost $2,000 over the past hour and have no more cash on me. I have plenty of cash about 12 miles away. Will he lock up the machine for me for an hour and allow me to get more “ammunition?”

The slot supervisor was somewhat sympathetic, but he told me it was July 3 and the bosses said no machines could be locked up for the entire holiday weekend. It was 10 p.m. and there was no way he would call them at home over a matter such as this.

So, I started calling some gambling buddies. I have some friends who might be willing to help me out for either a percentage, a flat fee, or whatever they wanted. I’d tell them that I had plenty of cash elsewhere and they’d have their money back the next day at the latest. Plus, I’d owe them a favor down the road. A largely unrestricted favor is pretty valuable.

If we agreed to split the jackpot, that could be a bit tricky. Currently, I estimate my “position” has a value of about $2,200 going forward. The fact that I’ve already put in $2,000 is not relevant going forward. Whoever helps me out would be starting now.

It’s also possible that I could lose starting from right now. I could put in another $2,000 and the bonuses only add up to $1,500. An unexpectedly bad result possible. Whoever takes a piece of this needs to know that winning isn’t guaranteed, and they’ll need to be willing to take a piece of the potential loss as well. If they can’t stand the idea of losing, then their help is only worth 5% or 10% of the bonus rounds. The people I call will understand these things.

Before I started making calls, I put the screen to the $1.20 version of the same game. The meters were low, and no professional would play it. But there are always pros lurking around and I didn’t want to leave the screen showing the juicy game at $8. I’d be sure to get tons of “do you mind if I play that?” questions I didn’t want.

The usual first person I’d call was out of town, so calling him wasn’t going to be useful.

The actual first person I called was Richard Munchkin. He doesn’t play slots, but has a son that does and both know me well enough to trust me both for the money and the ability to calculate that it was a good game. Munchkin’s phone went to voicemail. He turns it off when he goes to bed. I didn’t have the phone number for his son.

The next person I called was planning to leave on an 8-hour road trip at five in the morning. Short of a life-or-death situation, which this wasn’t, he didn’t want to leave his house. I told him to go back to bed.

The third person I called was Bonnie, my 81-year-old wife. While I 100% trust Bonnie with money, she’s a little forgetful. Well, maybe a little bit more than a little bit forgetful. She could easily not remember at which casino I was waiting. My phone had about 5% power and could run out, so I had to be sure she got the complete message the first time. I made sure she had all the information written down and could read it back to me. 

She no longer drives but has taken Lyft enough that she’s reasonably comfortable with that. My biggest fear is that Bonnie is very friendly and talks to everybody. I could imagine her telling the Lyft driver that her husband has run out of money and she was bringing him $5,000. Depending on the Lyft driver, Bonnie’s safety might be at risk. The $5,000 would be the least of our worries. (I’m not bad-mouthing Lyft. I assume that Bonnie would be completely safe with 99%+ of all Lyft or Uber drivers. But you never know for sure that she wouldn’t get one of the rare bad apples.)

While I was waiting, basically nobody bothered me. I was sitting in front of one of several hundred slot machines in the place, and the screen that was showing wasn’t anything special. Which was good. I didn’t want to call attention to myself. When this was finally over, Bonnie and I would be two senior citizens with multiple thousands of dollars on us. Downtown after midnight can be a bit sketchy.

I’ll finish this story next week.

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Tales from the shore; Midsummer slump

Above is what we’re reliably informed is the best reason to visit the lounge at Bally’s Atlantic City—and it’s a pretty good one. It’s an unfettered view of the Atlantic Ocean. Being a beachgazer is probably one of the better ways to amuse oneself in Atlantic City. Gosh knows, help is needed. Outdoor events have been dropping like flies. (The better to keep prospective gamblers indoors?) The biggest domino to fall was the annual air show. Reports our Boardwalk correspondent, “The stated reason is that one of the ‘prime’ acts withdrew. The surprise was that the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds were never in this years show schedule.” A surprise indeed. What gives, USAF?

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THE INNER WORKINGS OF YOUR FAVORITE SLOT MACHINE

This post is syndicated by the Las Vegas Advisor for the 888 casino group. Anthony Curtis comments on the 888 article introduced and linked to on this page.

AC says:

Are you looking for some tips for beating the slots? You won’t find any here, and that’s a good thing, as winning slot-play strategies mostly don’t exist. However, this is a good micro-chronology of how slot machine technology has advanced through the years. Author Michael Kaplan points out that, like most things in gambling, the original concept remains the underlying component of today’s slots, even as the software and physical presentations become many times more sophisticated. The discussion of the random number generator (RNG) hammers home the fact that slots, in general, are not beatable over time, but serve up intermittent swings of good fortune, which keep the slot players coming back.

This article was written by Michael Kaplan in association with 888Casino.

THE INNER WORKINGS OF YOUR FAVORITE SLOT MACHINE

Walk through a brick-and-mortar casino or log on to 888casino and the slot machines are impossible to miss. Chinese themed Zodiac Lantern Rabbit, the enticing Cash Eruption and jewel-centric Sapphire Spin are all amazingly alluring. They’re the games you want to play for quick spurts of gambling satisfaction and potential cash payouts.

But what is inside these flashy sirens of the gambling world and how do they work?

Continue Reading…

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Not-so-magnificent obsession; Sands slips

A Faustian pact has been struck by Bally’s Corp. Chairman Soo Kim. In order to gain the cash necessary to build his $1.8 billion obsession, Bally’s Chicago, Kim has had to sell practically everything of value that Bally’s has. On paper, he gains a flagship megaresort. However, he loses assets against which he could leverage projects in Las Vegas and New York City. Maybe there’s a disguised blessing. Perhaps Kim, whose Standard General hedge fund is the largest BALY shareholder, will finally be forced to focus on one big thing at a time.

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Missouri, Motown & cretins

Gambling revenues held the line in Missouri last month, flat with last year. The $155 million tally was also 8% better than in June of 2019. At $25 million, Ameristar St. Charles continued to dominate, up 4.5%. River City edged sister property Hollywood St. Louis $21 million to $20.5 million. River City was up 4%, Hollywood 1.5%. Horseshoe St. Louis, despite its downtown presence during the height of baseball season, plunged 17% to $11 million.

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Have I Lost My Touch?

Bob Dancer

As of July 1, I’m down about $150,000 for the year in video poker, mainly on $5 and $10 single-line games. (I’m ahead a modest amount on slots. Nowhere near the size of my video poker deficit.) Some casinos, where I would happily play with just their normal promotions, have offered me “show up money” so I will come in and hopefully, for them, continue my losing streak.

Casino employees have seen me use a walker both before and after my hip surgery at the end of last year, and the next time they see me, I’ll be in a sling. I look like a 77-year-old man with significant health issues — which is what I am. Recovering from the orthopedic ailments means the quality of my sleep isn’t what it used to be — so my normal level of alertness is there far fewer hours in the day than it was previously. This is probably obvious to anybody who closely observes me. I don’t look like any sort of a video poker guru that casinos should fear.

So, what’s going on? Is this a normal losing streak or have I lost a significant portion of my gambling mojo?

Possibly I’m not the best one to ask, but I’m betting that it’s more the former than the latter. And by ‘betting,’ I mean I’m continuing to play the same games and doing the best I can.

Whenever I go through a losing streak, and there have been several in career, I carefully review the game I’m playing, its strategy at the 100%-accurate level, and the parameters of the slot club and various promotions that make me believe this is a game I should be playing. 

I look at my bankroll and verify I have enough to consider playing. At my age, I’m extremely conservative in my bankroll estimates. The option of landing a good-paying job is not available to me. I’m not going to inherit anything. I don’t have a Rembrandt hidden away that I can sell.  I do have some relatively small revenue streams coming in, which helps ride out the storm. What I have is what I have and if it goes, it’s gone. 

In terms of video poker competence and playing within my bankroll, I’m I confident I’m still all right. In last week’s blog, I referred to the Kelly Criterion that says, approximately, that if your bankroll decreases, you should bet less. I’m still fine betting the stakes I am. In fact, I could still afford $25 games were they available with the same promotions. But they’re not, so I don’t even need to worry about $10 games.

I do have some advantages over other players — namely I’ve been through losing streaks before and they’ve ALWAYS ended and eventually I’ve made up all the lost ground and set a new personal high. I believe wholeheartedly that if I continue to play games where I have the edge, good things will happen. I believe it’s mathematically inevitable.

This confidence cuts both ways, of course. There could easily come a time when I’m no longer mentally competent and what I calculate to be a 99.54% game actually becomes a 98.82% game when I’m hitting the buttons. If (when?) this happens, I could be in a situation where I’m playing a negative game, and no amount of confidence will enable me to ride it out. While I’ve taken several readings and find myself still a competent player, this could happen.

I’ve experienced this kind of situation at a fairly close and personal level. My father, who wasn’t a gambler but had several varied business investments, became less cautious and less competent when he got into his 90s. His children could see this, and we tried to warn him about it, but he was convinced we were all wrong and he was as sharp as he ever was. He blew away 90% of his wealth in the last decade of his life. “Fortunately,” he died at age 96 before he lost it all, but it could have happened. We would have had to get a court order to prevent this, against his kicking and screaming, and that wouldn’t have been fun no matter what the end result was financially.

This isn’t a blogpost asking for your sympathy. I’m fine, have an enviable bankroll, and will recover. It’s meant to be a message saying these types of things happen to all players — even the pros. Most or all of you have experienced something similar. Perhaps lower dollar amounts because you play for lower stakes, but you’ve endured long losing streaks that weren’t fun at all.

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Bobby Vegas: Winner Winner Free Steak Dinner

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

If you missed the Rolex, the Vegas Aces courtside-seats, and Rod Stewart concerts giveaways, you have another round through July 31 and the prizes are still great.

Three winners will win a pair of Sphere tickets for Dead and Company. Four will enjoy a BBQ feast for eight at Rainbow. And at Emerald Island, four winners will get a pair of tickets for the Saturday Nov 9 show starring Bill Joel and Sting.

That makes 11 total chances to win. Each entry is just 200 base points at $1 per point.  And it’s a small barrel.

May I suggest you do this in any of their 25 x multiplier sessions spread throughout the day. (See BobbyVegas.com for more details.)

You won’t earn points at full-pay Double Double Bonus, but you will on just about every other VP game. And adding 1.67% (25 x) onto any game in the house, you’re playing at a positive expectation. Mutiplier points go toward excellent food comps at Triple B Diner at Rainbow or Emerald Island. My calcs don’t include progressives. Check your VP strategy guide for the breakeven on those and if it’s not at BE, even a partial adds to your total return.

Checking VPfree2, every game down to 8/5 Bonus Poker (99.17%) turns into 100.84%. Not too shabby while winning tickets for any of the above, plus food comps galore and gifts or cash.

A note on reading VPfree2: Just using the browse feature, the games come up looking like they’re only for pennies, nickels, and dimes. Not true. The quarter and higher games are anywhere from 10 line to 30 line, so it’s possible to play $3 and $5 VP during these multiplier periods and the comps add up very fast at 25x level.

Only your base amount counts to concert and other monthly prize drawings, but still …

There are also a host of local Water Street restaurants, brew pubs, etc., where you can spend your comp dollars.

Did I mention the 50x, 75x, or 100x periods ? Those are insane, adding 3.74%, 6%, and higher. Those super-high earning periods are often short or at an odd hour, but again, you’re earning comps like crazy, plus the drawing tickets. And every day they give out hot dogs, donuts, pizza, ice cream and more.

The thing about Rainbow and Emerald is they have so many daily wheel and other cash giveaways , it’s hard to keep up. But hey, it’s free money.

And why do I say free steaks for dinner? Well, the rib eye and shrimp with steak are the most expensive items on the Rainbow Triple B Diner menu and top out at $20.

Did you use your LVA MRB for 2-for-1 or half-off, even with points?
There it is: Winner winner free steak dinner.

If you spend 30 to 60 minutes, you’ll have more than enough points for several of ’em.

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Short takes: Illinois, Maryland and sleaze

Casinos in the Land of Lincoln had something to celebrate last month, as they actually improved same-store results by 3%, although they still lagged 3% behind 2019 figures. (Blame it on the thermonuclear proliferation of slot routes). The overall haul was $138 million. The bulk of this was logged in the northern tier of the state, where Bally’s Casino (above) in Chicago pulled in $10.5 million, about par for its course. Despite being down a point, Rivers Des Plaines grossed $44 million and is staving off new competition rather impressively. Speaking of which, The Temporary at American Place vaulted 33% to $9 million.

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