I’ve been playing video poker for 30 years, and by any measure have been quite successful at it. Prior to this gambling game, I tried very hard to become successful at several other gambling games — specifically poker, backgammon, bridge, and blackjack.

I’ve been pondering recently as to why I became successful at this one specific game and not the others. Today I’m going to compare my results at video poker with my non-success at backgammon — which is the gambling game I tried hardest and longest before I gave up.

A factor in winning at any gambling game is one’s intelligence — both IQ and the ability to apply that intelligence to addressing the many aspects of successful gambling. It’s difficult for me to talk about my own intelligence without having some people conclude I’m full of myself and/or others conclude I’m being overly modest. But I’m convinced it’s a big part of the reason for my results in both games.

Video poker is a relatively easy game compared to other gambling games. When I learned the game, I had to create my own strategies, or at least perfect strategies published by others. When I had a strategy, I needed to execute it competently over and over again. Usually this meant memorization, but sometimes I’d bring some sort of “cheat sheet” strategy card, especially if it was going to be a short-term play where it would not make sense to take the time to memorize the game completely.

I needed to evaluate how much a game is worth, and how much the slot club, promotions, and other benefits slots were worth. Of these, probably evaluating and analyzing promotions was the most difficult. Having a working knowledge of probability and statistics helped here.

By the luck of the draw, I “grew up” in video poker right as computerized programs were becoming available to the public. Had I started five years earlier, the problems of creating a strategy and figuring out how much a game is worth would have been beyond my capabilities. Players starting today are able to get a strategy for most video poker games for free from www.wizardofodds.com but casinos aren’t offering as many good opportunities as they used to.

I’m not sure why, but using commercially available software in the 90s, I was able to create and execute accurate video poker strategies better than most other players. I attribute that to intelligence, basic mathematical ability, and the willingness to put in the hours necessary for success. Also, looking at five cards and immediately seeing the various possibilities for straights, flushes, straight flushes, etc., comes easier to me than others. I never appreciated this until I discovered when I was teaching that this is not easy for many players.

Also by the luck of the draw, I grew up with video poker in an era when casinos were giving away the store to video poker players. Not intentionally, of course, but slot directors generally didn’t understand the mathematics of video poker nearly as well as the best players did. All competent video poker players had to do was “Repeat Until Rich,” which is the name of a book (on blackjack success) by Josh Axelrad.

Backgammon, which I played for 20 years from 1974 to 1994, was a totally different situation for me. Computer software wasn’t available yet, and the way to learn the game was to read books and roll out positions over and over again until you understood them. I certainly learned from playing and watching others, but that is a complicated and potentially expensive way to learn.

Backgammon has a zillion different possible positions. Even long-time players regularly come across positions they’ve never studied before. Or maybe it’s the same position, but last time you studied playing a five and a three, and this time the roll is a six and a one. The correct play on most rolls from most positions is fairly obvious to competent players — but some rolls require you to select among different good positions, or perhaps choose the least bad among several not-so-good positions.

No player has studied every position — or even seen every position. During a game, you have to make the best decisions you can. Raw intelligence plays a big part in this, because there are a lot of elements to consider, both offensive and defensive. After a lot of study, I was pretty good at this — but there were many players who were better. I concluded they were brighter than I was.

I did “grow up” in backgammon at a fortunate time. The game was popular in the early 1970s and played by celebrities. The game was played at the Playboy Mansion, and to a young man in his mid-20s at the time, that was pretty interesting. The game was played at discos, and I took dance lessons and obtained a suitable wardrobe to fit in there. For the most part, the players in discos took the game much more casually than I did, and my skills were such that I could clean up in that environment — and meet plenty of ladies who liked being with guys who could dance. What a life!

But that environment ended in the late 1970s. Discos closed and the days of making easy money gambling against non-professional players were over. There were enough better players than I was (including brains, knowledge, and whatever else) that I eventually went bankrupt and had to go get a job.

While I worked my way back into modest backgammon success, I never reached the highest level, no matter how hard I studied.

Today, there are a number of computerized programs available for backgammon players, with the best one called Extreme Gammon (XG.) With the same innate intelligence, players using XG for six months can get as good as I got in 20 years of play.

Today gambling at backgammon is fairly rare. It’s still done, of course, especially while backgammon tournaments are taking place, but today a “PR rating” is generated in tournaments comparing a player’s actual play with the play of XG. A player with a rating of 3.0 (world class) will have a very difficult time getting a game against players with ratings of 10 (intermediate level). Years ago, such matches were possible because nobody knew how good other players were. Today they do.

I know that I could return to that game and get as good as I was 30 years ago, but 30 years ago I was an intermediate player! And there are players who could beat me 30 years ago who’ve been playing and studying continuously since then. They could beat me then and they’ve only gotten better since. I’d have no chance.

Basically, starting over again, at age 77, is not a formula for success. And if I busted my ass for several years and got my average PR rating down to 5 or so, I still couldn’t make enough money to support myself because games against lesser players simply aren’t regularly available.

I’ve written several times about there being more players who want certain video poker machines at a certain time than there are machines available. Today’s article isn’t about that. It’s about waiting for a slot machine that you believe is positive.

Let’s talk about the hypothetical “Red Bob” machine. I have not searched patents and trademarks to know if any such machine exists, but if so, I haven’t heard of it. If there is such a machine, it’s just a coincidence. I’m making up everything I’m saying about this machine.

The Red Bob machine has three meters: Mini, Minor, and Major. Each of these meters increases when certain symbols appear. When one of these meters goes off, you receive however many free spins are on the meter. The Mini meter goes off most frequently and is the least valuable. The Minor goes off less frequently, but is more valuable because you get additional wild symbols on each spin. And the Major meter goes off still less frequently, but is more valuable still when it does go off because of still more wild symbols.

Assume you’ve collected data and have determined that the Mini meter is a play at 23 spins — meaning that on average, starting from right now, the amount of money you collect when the meter goes off is more than how much you’ll have to pay to get that meter to go off. There is a random element to this, as in most gambling games. Sometimes you’ll win, sometimes you’ll lose, but on average, so long as you only play games when the meter is at least 23, you’ll do all right.

Similarly, the Minor meter needs to be 37 to be a play and the Major meter is a play at 45. Just one meter needs to be high enough for it to be a play. For the record, I know of no machines where 23, 37, and 45 are the “strike numbers,” but I know of many games that are generally similar to this.

Assume you come across a Red Bob machine that has meters of Mini 26, Minor 17, and Major 13 and it costs $2 to play each hand. This is a play, because the Mini is at least 23, and we assume you can afford the $2 a hand. The trouble is, somebody is already at the machine.

At this point, I’m going to evaluate the situation. A pro, or semi-pro, will probably be playing the machine like he’s in a slot tournament. That is, he will keep hitting the spin button as fast as he can. He knows that he’s the favorite and the sooner he can get to the Mini meter to go off, the more time he has to make money on other machines. 

Generally speaking, I don’t wait around for a pro to finish. Most likely he’s not going to stop until the Mini meter is hit. And when that happens, the machine is no longer interesting to me because the Minor and Major meters are way too low to be profitable.

But sometimes you’ll find a “regular” player — that is, someone who might not know or care that he’s playing a game returning in excess of 100%. He’s in the casino for enjoyment and knows the casino usually wins. It’s the price he pays for entertainment. This player usually plays relatively slowly, listening to the music and enjoying the sights and sounds of the game.

I then look at the credits. If he has $239.17 in credits, I probably won’t stick around, unless I get some vibe that he’s ready to go (like maybe a wife telling him about dinner.) If he has $12.34 in credits, I’m going to find a nearby chair and wait. After all, running out of money in the machine creates a natural stopping point.

Once seated, I look around and see if anybody else is waiting for the game. They will have seen me evaluate the situation and sit down. Normally, they give me some sort of “evil eye,” or maybe use sign language to indicate that they were there before I was. If I see this, I nod acceptance of reality and move along. There are many reasons I don’t want to be in any sort of fight in a casino.

If I see nobody, then I watch the player to see if he gives up. I’m also alert to other players coming and thinking about moving in on the machine. If I observe this, I give them my own version of the evil eye. Usually that works.

If the player runs out of money in the machine and grudgingly puts in a $20 bill or smaller, I stick around. If he puts in a $100 bill, I figure he’s not going to run out of money.

If he does stand up, I move in fast. I’m usually seated within five seconds after he leaves. Once I’m seated there, I’m in a strong position to be able to keep the machine. If I dawdle, some other player might move in — and even if I was waiting longer, it’s not always simple to enforce my rights without making a scene — which is a situation I don’t want.

Once I’m there, I’ll insert my money and player’s card and keep playing until the Mini goes off. With the numbers presented in the example, it’s unlikely that either the Minor or Major will be high enough to be playable before the Mini goes off. But if the original numbers were 26, 34, 38, even if the Mini goes off quickly, I’ll keep playing until “one or the other” of the other two meters goes off. Even though neither is high enough by itself, the combination is playable — at least in my opinion.

I know that most of my readers are video poker players and don’t care about playing slots — but I felt that this situation was different enough from regular video poker waiting that it would be interesting to many of you. I have more to say about this subject, but I’ll give it a rest for a few weeks.