Originally posted by: Boris Radtke
Always also take into consideration the error-to-perfect play ratio. 1 mistake in 1 hands is possible. 2 errors sometimes happen. Overlooking penalty cards, not 100 per cent sure about the holding, it all can add-up. That's why I for instance stay away from Jokers Wild game because I find it extremely hard to master those games. Even Deuces Wild (NSUD) is hard to play perfectly always because of sometimes not visible existing penalty cards.... and in 10'000s of hands people are making mistakes. I doubt that even our lord and master Bob D. can play perfectly at all times. When you get tired, more mistakes occur. When you speed up and when you're tired, it's even worse.
I never got too excited about penalty cards, because ignoring that consideration costs very little. I did pay some attention to certain situations that recurred fairly often, such as when to keep or not keep a 2RF in Deuces Wild. But the counterpoint to penalty cards considerations is that altering your play in that manner slows you down. Back in my AP days, time was money and volume was the key.
I remember the numbers for FPDW: with perfect play, you got 100.76%. Taking into account only the most common/consequential penalty card decisions, that dropped to 100.73%. Ignoring penalty cards altogether dropped you down to 100.69%. There are similar losses in EV with FPJOB and many other games. One exception, though, is FPDB. Ignoring penalty card considerations costs you almost 0.15%, negating your modest 100.17% edge. So you kind of have to learn it for that game.
I look at it this way. The cost of an error in VP is a small fraction of one bet (unless the error is really dumb). If I'm playing quarters, and I make twenty small errors in a session, that's going to cost me $1 or $2. Even an error like in JOB, drawing one to the straight with 67899 (you're supposed to keep the pair) costs you about four cents. I wouldn't be upset by that. I therefore wouldn't play painfully slowly to be perfect, and I definitely wouldn't stay away from a good machine or decline to play a good promo.