Originally posted by: O2bnVegas
But how much intelligence does it take for any person to decide on his own to take precautions? Certainly the mixed messages at the top didn't help. But if half or even a fourth of the undecided or indifferent would have complied, how many fewer cases (and deaths) would have been avoided?
Ignoring the babbling of our resident Trumpers on this thread (including the one who promised he would stay away), the CDC has actually quantified this. Wearing a mask properly reduces the chance of transmission by about 40%. This includes both your risk of being infected and of your infecting others.
So let's take an interaction between two people (passing closer than six feet, for the purposes of this discussion). If those people are both maskless, we can call the risk of infection "1." If one is wearing a mask, that drops to 0.6. If both are wearing a mask, the effect is multiplicative: 0.36. So if everyone is wearing a mask, that cuts infections down by 64% even if people don't social distance. If they do behave properly in that regard, the risk obviously becomes even lower.
If you have half of the population wearing masks, the chance of a "1" encounter is 25%; the chance of an "0.6" encounter is 50%; and the chance of an "0.36" encounter is 25%. As mask compliance goes up, the "1" encounters go down and the "0.36" encounters go up. For instance, at 75% compliance, the chance of a 0.36 encounter (the best possible scenario) is just shy of 57%. At 90% compliance, 0.36 encounters happen 81% of the time.
This reasoning is what's behind the CDC's projection that 70,000 fewer people will die by the end of the year if we have 95% mask compliance. We have too many selfish, stupid Trumper yahoos and immortal teenagers to ever get close to that, but it's interesting to consider. No vaccine. No magic therapy. Just wear a goddamn mask and a football stadium full of people won't die.