2014***ObamaCare***2014

Pretty sure it DD's post started aout with 2014.

J

My guess is that they(the govt. and ins. co.'s) sit down again and figure out how much the govt will be on the hook for '15? I think it's pretty safe to assume the Ins. people would never go along with ACA back in 2010 if there wasn't some safety net for them.

"I never make predictions, especially about the future."__Yogi Berra
Or, if one prefers, "“It is difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future.,”__Danish Proverb

Indeed it is all just predictions until it happens.
But that the provisions to make the insurance companies whole, . . . just in case, . . . are in the Obamacare Legislation is a fact. DonDiego supposes the legislators did that for a reason.

At the moment the pool is weighted more to the sick, especially, and the old, . . . with enrollment among the healthy young lagging.
And next year the insurance companies will adjust their costs as/if necessary. The devil-may-care DonDiego disregards the perils of prediction and anticipates premiums will rise.
And if the condition persists and premiums rise enough and deductibles along with them even fewer folks'll want to participate, . . . until maybe the insurance companies start to drop out of the program, and Obamacare dies of premium starvation. [DonDiego recognizes insurance companies are good with figures, so he'd expect them to participate/drop out in a manner to maximize bailout funds as long as possible, but before they dry up.]

pjstroh realizes that Obamacare is supposed to be "deficit neutral", i.e. , not to raise the Government deficit, right?. This will become awkward at some point.

Of course the "Individual Mandate" is necessary. Although were DonDiego describing the legislation he'd refer to it as "individual coercion", but "individual mandate" does sound less, . . .umm, . . . unpleasant. But, even better, the actual designation in the Law is "Shared Responsibility Provision". See, . . . everyone is, well, sharing; and isn't that just, . . . umm, . . . say, . . . nice. "Nice", . . . such a wonderful world, if only everyone would be nice to one another. [See 1984 reference, below.]
In any case DonDiego is not surprised that pjstroh approves of the "mandate" that those who'd prefer not to participate must participate anyway.

Oh, and incidentally, the $95 penalty-tax on those who do not enroll is not meant to cover medical costs of those who do as pjstroh once stated. It is as pjstroh now recognizes a penalty for those who do not comply to the order of He-Who-Must-Be-Obeyed, . . . or if one prefers, for those who aren't nice.
Anyway, young folks apparently aren't intimidated yet. Right now it's easy to ignore, because (1) it's only $95, . . . and (2) it can only be collected from the refund, if any, one is due on one's income tax.
But by 2016 the penalty tax rises to 2.5% of one's income.
And if those people trying not to be nice persist in not being nice, DonDiego figures Congress'll figure out some more effective way to collect the penalty.

Umm, . . . what else?
__"Don Diego is free to speculate any way he wants." DonDiego thanks pjstroh for his permission.
__"[DonDiego] has made lots of fun speculations in the past....like impending runaway inflation, for example." Yeah, probably a premature call, but he's still worried, . . . he doesn't know how the Federal Reserve's literally $-trillions of questionable mortgage assets and persistent purchases of low-interest US bonds are gonna affect the economy if/when it stops; it is uncharted territory. DonDiego expects disruptions.
__"The government can be on the hook for money if only sick people sign up." No, the Government can be on the hook if a mixture of old and young and sick and healthy is just not sufficient such that premiums fall short of costs.
__" . . . having young, healthy people in the pool lowers costs for everybody." Well, . . . except for the young, healthy people.
__"Someday when conservatives present their top-secret Obamacare alternative you can bet it will have the very mandate in it they've been crying about for 5 years." DonDiego, perhaps more a Libertarian than a Conservative, has a plan: Let the 85%+ of those persons who had insurance that they liked before Obamacare keep their insurance and keep their doctors. In fact, if memory serves, the Chief Executive stated clearly and repetitively, that was Obamacare. He lied.


______________

"WAR IS PEACE, FREEDOM IS SLAVERY, IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH." ___George Orwell, 1984
DonDiego trusts no one within this forum will report this post as crimethink to the Thinkpol. He would prefer not to spend time in a joycamp or become an unperson, just for exercising his tendency towards ownlife.
He'll take his chances, . . . but just in case, . . .

I don't work for the budget office and don't pretend to have all the numbers in front of me as to what the total balance sheet of the ACA will look like. I find it incredibly amusing that Don Diego fancies himself in such a position.

Will the ACA ultimately be deficit neutral? I won't dare to predict. The CBO says it will be. I know Don DiegoCare was not deficit neutral (not by a long shot)...and there was an individual mandate for all insured people to pick up the slack for all of the uninsured emergency care. Don Diego always hates it when I bring that up. He doesn't like to talk about it much. And to make it much worse Don Diego's Republican leaders in Congress added a Medicare Part D program that had absolutely no pay-fors of any kind whatsoever. Prior to the ACA being passed that outrageous blemish on the countries balance sheet was costing tax payers 100's of billions. Don Diego doesn't like to talk about that either. Maybe because its "awkward" given his deep desire to go back to those fiscally responsible days when people were free from tyranny.

ANd I continue to enjoy Don Diego's entertaining Orwellian metaphors when the government requires people to buy things they don't want to...like health insurance....or auto insurance...or homeowners insurance... oh wait, its just one of those. Yeah, that's kinda awkward too.

Since the CBO received most it's information from the democrats almost all of the CBO's estimates have proven wrong to date. So there is little evidence that it's future estmates are any better.

Where do your estimates come from?

The actual results from when this started have been below expectations

DonDiego lives to entertain.

DonDiego's post addressed several aspects of Obamacare for the purpose of educating the reader, if any, on possible negative impacts of the Law on citizens' finances.
pjstroh's post addressed supposed thoughts of poor old DonDiego.
DonDiego loves posts about himself. So he thanks pjstroh for providing even this largely inaccurate assessment of poor old DonDiego's amusing, hateful, reticent, longing, entertaining personality.

DonDiego requests pjstroh provide a similar evaluation of, say, Vlad the Impaler, . . . so DonDiego can better judge where he stands in the panoply of humanity.

____________Vlad the Impaler_____________

donDiego loves speculating about the fiscal impacts of Obamacare. He doesn't like addressing the fiscal impacts of repealing Obamacare and going back to the system he has described as being "jez fine" to use his words. Thats not an opinion; thats Don Diego's posting record on this forum since 2009. But spending all of one's time on offense and none on defense is a luxury awarded to anyone resigned to living life in the peanut gallery. Fortunately there is a political party for such people. I think its great Don Diego has found a home in our two party system.

A new USA TODAY analysis shows the health plans they can choose still leave them vulnerable to thousands in deductibles and other out-of-pocket costs each year.

Medical insurance deductibles for plans on the federal exchange covering 34 states average $3,000, and those for the least expensive, bronze-level plans average $5,082, according to the USA TODAY analysis of deductible data for HealthCare.gov. Those costs, according to a recent study, may still be more than many people can afford.

The USA TODAY analysis also found the lowest out-of-pocket limits on HealthCare.gov plans were $4,350 for individuals on bronze plans and $8,700 for families, although these were not the norm and are likely paired with high premiums.
Even relatively modest cost sharing can prove unaffordable because expenses are often unexpected, and most Americans have less than $3,000 to cover such costs, according to a new Kaiser Family Foundation report on medical debt among the insured concludes
.
The new health care law requires consumers' portions of health care expenses — known as cost sharing — to be capped at $6,350 for individuals and $12,700 for families.
Many plans have lower limits on out-of-pocket costs than the federal limit, but the plans increasingly also have separate deductibles for prescription drugs. And expenses for drugs that aren't covered by plans or for out-of-network physicians aren't applied against limits.

That makes it more likely consumers, especially those with chronic health conditions such as asthma or high blood pressure, will be hitting these out-of-pocket maximums, says Matt Eyles, executive vice president at consulting firm Avalere Health.
"The ACA is an important safety net, but it doesn't necessarily solve the problem of high up-front medical expenses for those who don't have ability to pay for them," Eyles says.

I did just look at insurance for myself: 51 year old male, state of Ohio, estimated income of (not saying)...

premiums before tax credit of $233/month:

$342/month silver $3250 ded/yr $4750 max out of pocket/yr
$793/month gold $250/ded/yr $6350 max out of pocket/yr

of course the subject of tax CREDITS typically means you pay the stated amounts and then get a write off or a refund at the end of the year.

Depending upon the income, rates like this can be one of next to impossible when one throws in the part about yearly deductables.

When I was making $9.00/hr the tax credit goes to $319/month.

These rates come from the healthcare.gov web site........

Btw, I don't smoke.