If Bob Dancer is Playing . . .

A few years ago, for several days in a row, I was hammering a $5 Five Play 9/6 Double Double Bonus game. This game returns 98.98% and it is very un-Dancer-like to play so much on a game that bad.

I received an email from somebody I didn’t know asking me why I was playing the game. While I generally respond to polite emails, this time I didn’t bother. I share a lot of information, but I’m not required to share everything. I had figured something out, I believed, and I wasn’t talking except to a very few players who also sometimes share juicy things with me.

After it was over, one of our guests on the Gambling with an Edge podcast, Sam, who I hadn’t known previously, told me he was approached by somebody who saw me playing and figured that if it was good for me, it was probably good for others as well. The person asking didn’t have the bankroll to do it himself, which is why he approached Sam. Sam asked me if it would have been a good idea for him to bankroll the other player.

I knew the incident Sam was talking about. I’m still not talking about the details because parts of it are still alive and friends are still playing it on occasion.

I told Sam that in general, just seeing me there wasn’t sufficient to have an edge.

1. This might have been an invited guest situation where some players have an offer that others don’t. If Sam didn’t know why I was playing, he didn’t get the offer.
2. There could have been point multipliers available to players who get regular mailers and would not be available to Sam, who wasn’t an established player there. Even players who do get multipliers don’t always get the same multiplier.
3. Maybe I had to play a certain amount quickly in order to be eligible for something juicy.
4. Possibly there was a loss rebate promotion going on.
5. There could have been one or more drawings included in the EV, some of which Sam didn’t know about and/or for which he wasn’t eligible. As an example, Sam wouldn’t qualify for a senior drawing, but I would. Or even if he did know about and was eligible for a drawing, possibly he would have had something else to do on the night(s) of the must-be-there-to-win drawing(s).
6. There could be annual tier levels to which I aspired, but Sam didn’t care about. Several casinos, for example, offer cruises if you reach their highest tier level. Bonnie and I enjoy these. I know several players who are bored out of their minds on a cruise and playing extra to earn one isn’t something they would consider.
7. I might have been playing extra to earn additional comps for some reason.
8. There was more than one seemingly identical machine at this casino. I might have known one of them was superior for some reason.
9. There were higher-EV machines available at this casino, but knowing what I knew, I believed they were actually lower-EV when you considered everything. If Sam played a higher-EV machine so he could “improve” on the way I was playing the game, his results would have been worse.
10. I could possibly have had a deal with the casino that if I played $1 million on this game, I would get a $5,000 rebate — or something. That’s a half-percent in equity. That could easily change a “not playable” game into being playable. Perhaps it was a deal I negotiated individually. Perhaps it was one open to all players who played $1 million coin-in a month.
11. It’s possible I screwed up and this play wasn’t as good as I thought it was. This doesn’t happen a whole lot for me, but I am 72 years old and it happens more than it used to. Sam couldn’t know if it was happening “this time.”
12. There are bankroll issues on plays. Five-dollar five play 9/6 DDB takes more bankroll than most players are used to. Let’s say it went bad this time and the player (either me or Sam) lost $30,000. I understand the swings and am used to that. I wouldn’t be delighted by that result, but it really isn’t a big deal. It’s part of my world. How would Sam feel about that?

Did all of these things happen? No, of course not. Not on that one occasion, but they all have happened at least once to me. Were some of them in effect this time? Absolutely.
Seeing me (or another knowledgeable player) at a casino definitely provides some useful information for you. And sometimes you are also a regular at that casino and you know what promotions are going on — and can easily figure out why that game is being played today.

But if it’s not obvious to you why I’m playing, it’s probably not a good game for you. There are so many possible reasons why I might be playing, and without knowing which reasons are in effect at this time, it could very well be that it’s not a good play for you at all.