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Grinning Bandits

Why is that man smiling? Well, he’s probably contemplating the profit margin on $50 pizzas and $13 Snickers bars, among other MGM Resorts International affronts to decency. To be fair to CEO Bill Hornbuckle, not all the pizzas at MGM Grand are $50. Some sell for as little as $47.95. And people in the industry wonder why the Las Vegas Strip is struggling.

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Hard Times for Hard Rock

Casino revenues were flat overall last month in Atlantic City, which grossed $203 million in the aggregate. The one really dramatic shift involved Hard Rock Atlantic City and Ocean Casino Resort. The former plunged 14% to $36 million, right in striking distance of Ocean, which surged 9.5% to $35.5 million. Borgata, meanwhile, jumped 7.5% to $53.5 million. What ails Hard Rock, we wonder? In the middle tier (i.e., Caesars Country), Harrah’s Resort fell 8.5% to $17 million, Caesars Atlantic City hopped 3.5% to $14.5 million and Tropicana Atlantic City was flat at $16 million. Bally’s Atlantic City jealously guarded last place ($10 million) despite a 6.5% bounce, while Golden Nugget was a few dimes ahead of it, also grossing $10 million on a 3% slippage. Resorts Atlantic City rounded out the grind joints with $11 million, a 5.5% dip.

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Business as Unusual

19 years of S&G experience comes in handy in the most unpredictable ways. This week it helped us take a deep dive into General Manager Peter Gelb‘s criminal mismanagement of the finances of that august institution, the Metropolitan Opera (above). Casinos would love to see Gelb coming, as he has the personality of a degenerate gambler, forever “chasing losses”—using other people’s money. Of course, you can’t wreck a company without the connivance of a Pet Rock board of directors, which the Met definitely has. (Shades of the Caesars Entertainment bankruptcy.) We promise you will find our analysis both lively and depressing. Now to more-traditional S&G fare …

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Fearless Oscar Forecast

It’s that time again, dear readers. With a lot of help from veteran oddsmaker Johnny Avello of DraftKings, here are some thoughts on what’s going to go down on Sunday night. First off, we’re picking a mild upset, on the strength of Sinners‘ (+500) surprise Best Ensemble win at the SAG Awards. We think it rides that momentum, great box office and a record number of Oscar nominations to Best Picture status. Yes, One Battle After Another (-500) has led from wire to wire, but it’s a hard film to warm up to (although incredibly pertinent) and frontrunners have a tendency to fade in the home stretch. Our metaphorical money is on Ryan Coogler‘s Dixie vampire opus. Besides, it’s been a few years since the Motion Picture Academy embraced a blockbuster. We think it’s going to happen this weekend. Should win: Sinners. Will win: Sinners.

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Gambling Hits Rock Bottom

There is no ethical or moral sinkhole so deep that prediction markets cannot find an even lower abyss to plumb. They may, however, have reached their nadir this week. Polymarket started taking bets on—we kid you not—whether nuclear war would break out over the Middle East. We weren’t there to see it but we’re pretty damn sure that, when Jesus Christ was being crucified on Golgotha, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (above) was among those gleefully shooting dice for His clothing.

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Texas-Sized Defeat

Nobody can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory quite like Dr. Miriam Adelson. The ancient meddler and majority owner of Las Vegas Sands saw another slate Sands-proxy candidates go down to defeat last night in the Lone Star State’s primary. Texas voters applied a 10-gallon boot to Adelson’s carpetbagging posterior, in yet another rejection of her ham-fisted agenda. It takes a special kind of reverse political acumen to take a state where a majority of the electorate favors casinos and sports betting, and then turn them into a vociferous bunch of NIMBYs. But Miriam has done it again.

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Strip Plummets, Locals Too

… but don’t you worry. Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg has assured us that everything is fine in Las Vegas, if not better than ever. After all, it’s ‘only’ suffered one full year of revenue decline. January’s numbers lapped the beginning of The Great Downturn. This period of languishing happens to coincide precisely with the United States government’s declaration of verbal war on Sin City’s two biggest international feeder markets: Canada and Mexico. Funny that. Let’s look at the latest numbers.

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Caesars: And if you believe that …

Earlier this week, Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg pissed on your head and told you it was raining. “There’s really no crisis happening in Vegas,” Reeg sniffed.  “This is normal economic-cycle activity. The city’s and all of our properties are doing quite well.” In case you’re wondering, “normal” activity looks like 4.5% less revenue for all of 2025. If visitation was to Las Vegas down again in January (the numbers aren’t out yet), it will mark a full year of decline. We’d call that a crisis. And, with international visitation to the United States off by 11 million people, it might be time for Reeg’s overpaid sphincter to start puckering.

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Chilly Scenes of Winter

Garden State gamblers defied terrible weather to patronize Atlantic City casinos, where receipts were up 1.5% (helped by an extra weekend day last month). Tables were a bit slow, down 3%, but slots were up 3.5%. Borgata was tops with $56.5 million despite a 6% slump. Hard Rock Atlantic City leapt 21% to $46 million, while Ocean Casino Resort was relatively becalmed at $35.5 million (1%). The grind joints were bunched closely together, barely led by Resorts Atlantic City with $11 million or 2% higher. Bally’s Atlantic City crawled out of last place ($10 million, 3.5%) and incrementally past Golden Nugget ($10 million, -4%). The Caesars Entertainment trifecta was led by Harrah’s Resort ($16.5 million, -2.5%), followed by Caesars Atlantic City ($14.5 million, 8%), while players fled Tropicana Atlantic City ($13 million, -14%).

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Station: Better than Ever?

In spite of construction disruption that should have dampened revenues, Station Casinos beat Wall Street expectations for 4Q25. Cash flow of $213 million came in 4% above Wall Street’s consensus projection. Not to be outdone, revenues of $512 million were also ahead of forecasts. Investors were further pleased with $48 million in share repurchases and a $1/share special dividend. For one, Barry Jonas of Truist Securities was moved to boost his price target from $75/share to $80.

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