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Congress to You: Drop Dead

Time to blow raspberries to the House Rules Committee. While permitting literally a thousand other amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act, it struck down Rep. Dina Titus‘ FAIR Bet Act, which would have redressed Congress’ imposition of new taxes on gambling losses. It was supposedly not germane to national defense, despite the fact that the Pentagon purveys a large fleet of slot machines, for the purpose of clawing back what little money it pays our servicemen and -women, to the tune of $100 million a year. Hypocrisy much?

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Career Path — Part II of II

Bob Dancer

In last week’s blog, in a semi-fictionalized story, I had a conversation with a recent college graduate, “John,” about whether he should become a professional gambler. I think I should have given him the “Stan and Pearl” test to see if he understands the basics of gambling.

I first discussed Stan and Pearl in my Million Dollar Video Poker autobiography. (Actually, it was my first autobiography. I’m considering penning Million Dollar Video Poker: The Next 25 Years if the new tax law provides me with a lot more free time than I currently have. We’ll see.) Every student who attended one of my “Secrets of a Video Poker Winner” classes has heard this story, and I’ve written about it in this blog at least a few times — but not for several years, and some of my readers haven’t been exposed to it before.

Most people believe the Stan and Pearl problem is very easy. And it is. Surprisingly, however, a high percentage of people get the wrong answer the first time they hear the problem. People who correctly understand what successful gambling is all about get it correct every time. People who don’t understand successful gambling, but think they do, often get it wrong.

Stan and Pearl are imaginary video poker playing friends. They play video poker with a level of skill and discipline far beyond what is found in most players. 

The game they play perfectly is $1 9/6 Jacks or Better — without a slot club, returning a bit more than 99.5%. 

Stan plays 10 hands every day and then, win or lose, stops. 

Pearl plays 10 hands every day. If she has hit a flush or higher (paying 30 coins or more), she plays another five hands (costing 25 coins). If in those five hands she connects on another flush or higher, she plays another five hands. Eventually she’ll hit a five-hand dry spell and will quit for the day.

Stan stops and Pearl parlays. “Parlay” is a term with quite a few different definitions. Here I’m using it to mean she bets with her winnings.

The question is: Assuming Stan and Pearl follow their strategy perfectly, who is likely to have the better cumulative score at the end of one year?

Don’t let the genders of these imaginary friends influence your decision. The names were selected for wordplay reasons. I could just as easily have made them both men —Stan and Paul — or both women —Stella and Pearl. 

When I teach it in class, I ask the students to raise their hands if they think Pearl will have the better score. I then ask the people with a hand up why they chose Pearl. The answers typically include:

“She’s riding a hot streak — betting more when she’s winning.”

“When she’s not winning anymore, she stops.”

“She’s playing more, giving her a better chance at getting lucky.”

Pretty soon we exhaust the reasons why people select Pearl. I then announce that anyone who voted for Pearl having the better annual score has no clue about what the winning process is all about.

I then ask if someone who voted for Stan having the better score will explain why. Almost always I get the correct answer: 9/6 Jacks or Better without a slot club is a game where the house has a half-percent advantage. Since Pearl plays more when the house has the advantage, she will lose more than Stan, on average. Since Stan plays less of this negative game, he will lose less. They will both be net losers, but Stan will lose less.

I then give them the second version of the puzzle. This time they are playing the same 99.5% game but there is now a 1% cash slot club. Stan still plays 10 hands per day, and Pearl still plays at least 10 hands, and more if she hits a flush or higher. Now who likely has the better score?

Most of the class correctly vote for Pearl this time. With the slot club, the player has a half-percent advantage over the house and now whoever bets more has the better chance of coming out ahead.

In summary, if you have the advantage, over time you’ll likely come out ahead. If you don’t, you likely won’t.

The reason I’m bringing this story out again is that in the scenario I outlined in last week’s blog, I had a discussion with a recent college graduate about whether he could pursue a life as a professional gambler. 

I wished I had given him this test. Anyone wishing to succeed at gambling should get the right answer for the right reason.

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Golden Gate — Before and After

LVA correspondent Michael B sent in these two photos, the first of the Golden Gate’s casino rammin’ and jammin’ with live table games and dancing dealers, the second, uh, without. He snapped the Before photo on Sunday evening after Derek Stevens’s speech commemorating the Golden Gate’s long history and announcing the new marketing campaign that includes free drinks every night from 6 to 7 p.m. (if you can get close to the bar) and generous free play for the machines. (He also noted that you can redeem your Golden Gate chips at the D and Circa and there’s “no rush” to do so.) The After photo was taken on Monday night after the joint was cleared out.

And yes, electronic table games will soon be installed, but, well … we leave it to you to draw your own conclusions about the direction (disappearing dealers) of the Golden Gate, Las Vegas, and the gambling biz.

Before

After

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Bobby Vegas — A Pirate Seeking Treasure

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

On a North Carolina Barrier Island, true pirates abandoned horses hundreds of years ago and their descendants still roam. There, I collect seashells, bags full, then haul them back to my lair, happy in my discoveries and tickled by my finds.

I’m a lover of old vinyl. Searching through the dusty worn $1 bins for that elusive find, I saw Ahmad Jahmal’s One. It’s worth $25. A great jazz album or an old Four Tops in near mint condition. Nice.

And in Vegas, I search for that elusive golden moment where all the cards come up hearts or spades. Diamonds are fine too and no, I don’t hate clubs.

And having researched the venue and stacked my deals and coupons, I’ve tilted the odds in my favor, so the winning is just the confirmation. It’s “just a game” for me, less about the amounts I’ve won and more about the adventure. Though the money doesn’t hurt either.

I’ve found that this is what I love — learning a new field, finding some valuable knowledge, applying it and hopefully walking away a winner, then sharing that tale with you. These things leave me satisfied.

Searching for hidden values. Discovering a silver dish in a thrift store. Not quite as adventurous as Black Beard, but a 50/50 matchplay will do fine for me in 2025.

What do you search for? And why? Why do you come to Vegas? To pretend to be a high roller? Or maybe you actually are and just want to live it out guilt free. Your favorite performer’s incredible show? The exotic dining? A sexual fantasy fulfilled? For the whole experience?

Which games do you choose over others? What’s the psychology behind your game choice? The tight win potential of blackjack? The camaraderie of craps?

I like video poker. It’s clean, clear, thoughtful, absorbing. I can play at my own speed and am not at risk to the whims of a roller calling out stupid plays.

I really like craps, but the style of play and the decision tree don’t work well for me.

I’m way too transparent to bluff, so I’m not attracted to poker.

Moving right along to news of the day. With the media all over the Vegas crash, the LVCVA has come out with an embarrassingly awful ad campaign. They still don’t get it. Not surprised at all.

Vegas was once a mecca for many things, an adult Disney World, and most folks willingly came hoping for a score, ready to party and play. But when the hustles got so strong and things got tight at home, well, paying $75 to park and walk in the door just left a bad taste.

Will the house learn? Based on their track records, I don’t have a lot of faith in corporate types making good decisions. But Vegas still has ways to play. For me, rule one is simple: Avoid the Strip.

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Jumping the Shark

Whilst vigorously pretending that Everything Is Better Than Ever in Sin City, Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority CEO Steve Hill has been busy behind the scenes. He gone back to the LVCVA’s favorite well, R&R Partners, to spool up a new TV onslaught to rebrand Las Vegas. But wait, it’s not a campaign, fellow yokels, it’s “a recommitment to the extraordinary spirit of Las Vegas.” Somebody ought to be committed, all right …

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Indian Givers

What doth it profit a tribe to gain a casino but forfeit its birthright? The Dry Creek Rancheria of Pomo Indians just made a Faustian pact with Wall Street, for the sake of underwriting a Caesars Republic-branded casino near Healdsburg, California. In return for $225 million in construction financing, the tribe agreed to lease the casino until 2070 to “an affiliate” of financier Gaming & Leisure Properties Inc., which will magnanimously sublease it back to the band. Any guesses to who the friend of GLPI might be? Corporate PR simpering aside, it’s obviously going to be Caesars Entertainment at the helm for 45 years.

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Jack Binion’s Steak (Horseshoe Las Vegas)

Have you heard, Vegas has gotten expensive. Yeah, it has. And it’s almost never more obvious than in the latest/greatest gourmet steakhouses. Honestly, we don’t do these anymore, unless it’s an absolute must-review or it’s a comp. This was the latter.

The Prices

The least expensive steak on the menu is the 14-ounce NY strip for $90.99, although a 12-ounce prime rib is only $80.99. A wedge salad is $18.99. A side of creamed spinach is $19.99. A glass of house red is $20.99. A Heineken is $12.99. Sheesh. And what’s with this .99 business? Do they really think $90.99 looks better than $91?

The Food

It’s good, but shouldn’t it be? We did the “cheapo” NY Strip, a salad, and a couple sides. We’ve had better, and for $10 less per item. Actually, there was one standout: the “Bloody Mary Shaken & Stirred” wedge salad. Had to try it and darned if it didn’t taste like a Bloody Mary wedge.

The Verdict

Good enough, but too darned expensive. There’s just no way to recommend a $326 meal for two when it’s coming out of pocket. Heck, we could have walked to Ellis Island.

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Village Pubs (Daily Specials)

We talk a lot about the Café at Ellis Island, because it has some of the best food and food deals in town. But we don’t make the point often enough that you can get that same quality and pricing in more than a dozen 24-hour bars all around the Las Vegas area. The 15 or so Village Pubs are owned by Ellis Island boss Gary Ellis and if you eat at one, you pretty much can’t go wrong. The menus are vast and even include the steak special that tops the TOP TEN (though it’s $18.99), but there’s an easy defined strategy of simply going with the daily specials. We tested it.

The Sunday Special

We usually target our days, with pot roast Tuesdays and prime rib Saturdays being at the top of our list. But on this Sunday we were hungry and within walking distance of the Village Pub at 10900 S. Eastern Ave., a perfect time to try our theory. There were two of us and we decided to go with whatever that day’s special was: roast turkey for $14.99. We’ve done this before and knew enough to order just one. It’s turkey & gravy, stuffing, mashed potatoes, a gardens’s worth of steamed vegetables, and some cranberry sauce.

Oh yeah, it also comes with a salad and the Village Pubs salads are among the freshest and best going.

We split it all and barely finished at that.

Locations

As stated, these bars are all over the valley. Did we say 15? There are 16. Here’s the list

Beer

Ellis Island has its own brewery, so you can get EI brews. It’s also a gaming bar, so you can get EI brews comped, though there’s nothing special about the paytables that are governed by the Gambler’s Bonus system.

The Verdict

The theory is sound: If you don’t know what you want, go with the specials for outstanding quality and value. Except in rare circumstances, one special is enough for two to share and single diners will have take-home lunch. The bars are conveniently located everywhere except near the Strip, and you have Ellis Island for that. This is a solid play, available from 11 a.m. on.

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Career Path — Part I of II

Bob Dancer

Today’s story starts off completely true about a recent meeting I had. About half-way through, I’ll veer into fiction because I didn’t think of the right things to ask until after the meeting was over. So, I’m going to list the questions I should have asked. And I won’t presume to give his answers to these questions, although I will forward the article to him and maybe we’ll continue the conversation later. 

A valued decades-long friend has a son, John, who just graduated from the University of Nevada Reno. John got a job as a slot analyst at a large Reno casino, and the father asked me if I would speak to John about the gambling world. The father thinks, probably correctly, the son has stopped listening to him. So Bonnie, John, and I had a dinner meeting.

John told me his girlfriend was a senior at UNR, and he hoped to marry her. For the next year, at least, he was planning to stay in Reno, but after that, he could go anywhere.

The first “casino business” thing we spoke about was the recent tax bill, the uncertainty about whether it will be modified, and my plans to give up gambling effective January 1 should it not be modified. (Should this be news to the reader, I discussed it at length in this column about a month ago.)

At this point, John told me that if I wanted to pass along my knowledge before I retire with all my secrets, he’s willing to be my student. And starting with the next question, things get fictionalized.

I asked him, “Is being a professional gambler a lifelong dream of yours? Or maybe you’ve heard that I’ve been successful and you just want to be rich?”

John gave a sheepish grin and said maybe a bit of both.

“How long has being a professional gambler been a dream of yours — and what have you done to prepare yourself for such a career?”

He admitted that it hasn’t been a dream that’s been on the front burner, and he really hasn’t done anything to prepare himself.

“How much bankroll do you have? What I mean is how much money could you lose without it being a major burden on your way of life?”

John said he had essentially no bankroll and he had some student loans that would need to be addressed soon.

“The complete answer is pretty long, but the bottom line is you’re not a very good candidate to be a professional gambler.”

I then spelled out my pretty long answer.

First, you need a bankroll. Just starting a marriage and bringing along student debt for at least one of you is not the best time to be saving 40% of your income for future gambling purposes.

Speaking of marriage, if being a professional gambler hasn’t been discussed with your bride to be, it’s possible that it could be a showstopper with respect to whom she wants to marry. If not specifically for her, maybe her family.

Second, being a professional gambler is a way of thinking. Most of us were playing strategic games for a long time before we gambled at it. Were you good at chess, scrabble, Minecraft, or any other games where strategy is a prerequisite?

Third, I’m leaving gambling because I think I can’t make a living at it under the new tax law. Do you think following my methods can lead you to success when I think those methods won’t work anymore under the new law? I could be wrong, of course, but are you willing to bet you know more than I do about this?

Fourth, succeeding at video poker is a lifelong process. I’ve been playing more than 30 years and am still learning things. This is not a profession where you can read a couple of books and be set for life. Are you a lifelong student sort of guy?

Fifth, the best professional gamblers are much smarter than average. Genius isn’t required, but being smarter than the casino employees who decide which games and which promotions to offer is useful. Does this describe you? 

Sixth, successful professional gamblers often change games they play if situations change. Video poker itself is reasonably well understood by most casino slot directors and few casinos offer lucrative opportunities for players. I’ve found some, but who knows how long they will last and who knows how long my welcome will last. It’s very possible that in ten years the successful video poker players of today will be playing gambling games that haven’t even been invented yet.

I’ll leave this fictionalized conversation off for now, although I’ll continue it in next week’s blog, and just surmise that John’s last response was a polite, “Well, Bob, you’ve given me a lot to think about.”