Las Vegas Advisor

Posted on November 3, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — 6 Comments

Urban One loses; Station thinks big; NFL gets into the slot biz

Richmond voters narrowly chose to cut off their nose to spite their face, voting 51.5% against the Urban One casino proposal. Since casinos were approved by at least 65% in four other Virginia cities in 2020, the resounding question is “Why?” True, an endorsement of Urban One by unpopular gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe (D) probably didn’t help. His victorious opponent, casino investor Glenn Youngkin (R) kept mum on the issue. Although adversaries of Urban One were outspent 10-1, they had the benefit of a wall of NIMBY sentiment at their backs. They were also accused of stoking racial animus and with Urban One polling poorly in predominantly white areas that strategy, if deliberate, may have worked. As of this morning, the casino industry—at least in the private sector—remains an all-white-ownership province.

Posted on November 2, 2021August 24, 2023 by Bob Dancer — 8 Comments

What’s More Important than EV?

Not long ago, I mentioned in a blogpost that if the only difference between an IGT game and a Scientific Gaming game was that straight flushes paid 250 in the former and 275 in the latter, I’d choose IGT because I like the feel and touch of IGT games better. I received some pushback for that comment. Some players said going for higher EV is ALWAYS the correct play, while some more thoughtful posters said, “Why don’t you explain, Bob, when you’re willing to give up EV for other things?” Today’s post is intended to partially address that.

The most important starting point for many players should be bankroll. Compare 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54% and a variance of 19.5) with 9/7 Triple Double Bonus (99.58% and a variance of 98.3). Last time I played at Harrah’s Lake Tahoe (pre-pandemic), both games were available on the same 25 cent Hundred Play machine. (Possibly they were only Fifty Play. It was a while ago). The EV is pretty close to the same, but the swings are much higher on the TDB game. Dealt quads on the JoB game earn you $3,125. Dealt quads on TDB range between $6,250 and $100,000. There were promotions in effect that made these games playable to me

Posted on November 1, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Chicago: Then there were five (?); LV Sands huddles with NY Mets

Or is it three? In the end, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) drew one heavyweight contender for the Windy City casino and a pair of middleweights. Two of the applicants made parlay bids, so the city could crow that it had “five” bidders for the high-tax concession. But despite Lightfoot’s stated aspiration of a Vegas-quality casino, none of the finalists has a Las Vegas return address. Obviously experiencing remorse for having sold its majority stake in Rivers Casino Des Plaines, politically connected Rush Street Gaming is back with two proposals: Rivers Chicago at McCormick and Rivers 78 Gaming. Also dibbing two sites was Bally’s Corp., while the lone heavyweight, Hard Rock International, would manage HR Chicago. None of the no-name bidders turned in paperwork, when it once looked as though they would be all Lightfoot had left.

The billion-dollar resort has yet to be sited, which will be an important factor in the selection processs. The winner also gets slot routes at the city’s two major airports. The casino will need to be a success right out of the chute, given its $160 million-$200 million annual tax liability. Two of the contenders, Rush Street and Bally, are eyeing McCormick Place, which would provide synergy with conventions and expos. Rush Street’s fallback position is a former railroad yard (blah!) in south Chicago, while Bally’s also covets the former Chicago Tribune printing plant. “It would become our flagship.” Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim said of Chi-town casino. On the other side of the coin is non-bidder Bill Hornbuckle, CEO of MGM Resorts International, who maintains, “It’s a struggle how it all adds up.”

Posted on October 29, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Rockin’ hard; Miller gives anti-smokers hope; Packer’s wrist slapped

Hard Rock International CEO Jim Allen (left) is bullish on the New York City market, if not downright aggressive. In maybe the highlight to come out of the East Coast Gaming Congress, Allen asserted his company’s interest in a New York City casino—and also one at the Meadowlands, only nine miles away. Granted, breaking Atlantic City‘s casino monopoly (from which Hard Rock currently benefits) would take a major upheaval in the New Jersey Lege, as well as a constitutional amendment, but we’re not counting Allen out. This double-whammy strategy with respect to NYC (whose casino licenses will be issued in 2023) would normally have us saying the company has drunk its bathwater … but there’s no better brand in gaming nowadays than Hard Rock, so if anybody could pull this parlay off, they could. Also, if any brand belongs in or near Manhattan, Hard Rock has the vibe for it.

“We’re interested in both markets, and if God is good enough to allow us to operate in both, we would be happy to do so,” Allen told reporter Wayne Parry, no doubt cognizant of the fact that Garden State voters nixed a Meadowlands casino in 2016, so he’s bucking the odds. He added he was “100%” certain that New York City could support three casinos, pointing out that Atlantic City is carrying nine. “It may be possible that a market as robust as metro New York City could support two properties,” said UNLV gaming supremo David G. Schwartz, waxing more skeptical than Allen. Actually, the Big Apple does support two casinos, if VLT-only Resorts World New York and MGM Empire City Yonkers count. (We agree with Allen, presuming that the third casino is more attractive than a converted racetrack.)

Posted on October 27, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — Leave a comment

Baccarat cools Las Vegas a bit; Boyd sets records; Reno bans whips

Stimulus cash may be petering out somewhat and international tourism has yet to open the floodgates, so September found Nevada on something of a cusp between the supercharged recovery of the summer and the hoped-for travel rebound in 4Q21. Still, Las Vegas Strip revenues were up 10% to $640.5 million and locals-driven receipts were 13% above 2019 levels. Statewide, gambling win tallied 9% higher than two years ago, hitting the wonted $1.1 billion level. As Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli puts it, “the accounting calendar was clean in September of 2021,” meaning there was no held-over slot revenue from August. With numbers like these it’s little wonder that gaming executives are waxing optimistic for the long haul. Strip slot players lost $355 million, 16% more on 16% higher coin-in and flat hold. Baccarat wagering was down only 5% but luck wasn’t with the house, as win fell 24% despite higher-than-normal hold. Non-baccarat table games fared much better, up 20% on 12% more wagering. If it weren’t for baccarat, Strip revenues would have been 18% above 2019’s apogee.

Posted on October 26, 2021 by Bob Dancer — 6 Comments

It’s Not So Easy

I’ve been playing video poker promotions for almost 30 years, and before that exploited blackjack promotions for about five years. I’ve absorbed a lot of “how to do things” over the years that are now second nature to me. When a new promotion comes along, I have enough experience, usually, to get the most out of it.

Recently, though, in another gambling game where they were giving away money, I was really out of my element.

Posted on October 26, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

DraftKings, MGM play chicken, MGM wins; Highway robbery in N.Y.

As we’ve written elsewhere, this was supposed to be The Year of Sports Betting … before the Covid-19 Delta variant reared its ugly head (and that was before Coronavirus knocked us out of Global Gaming Expo). But sports betting could still grab the prize, even if sometimes for the wrong reasons.

Maybe this isn’t the wrong reason but today’s top story is that, faced with potential litigation from MGM Resorts International, among other issues, DraftKings has spiked its $22 billion takeover offer for Entain, half owner of BetMGM. “We are not surprised by this outcome, because we viewed this deal as just too complicated to close from the start given … the sizable amount of equity that would have been used by DKNG in a ~$22B deal with 78% of this in newly issued equity,” writes JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, predicting that DraftKings stock would react positively to this sudden onset of sanity from CEO Jason Robins. The proposed buyout had been a drag on share prices.

Posted on October 25, 2021 by James Grosjean — 10 Comments

Discord Death Match 2021

[This post is for programmers, especially AP programmers. All others read at your own risk. To McDuck and Refusal2, the judges—Chief Justice Cartwright, Associate Justices Marvin and ExhibitCAA—would like to extend a genuine appreciation for your willingness to put yourselves out there. It takes some courage to expose source code to the world! We were entertained, and we learned a lot. As the freshman, I was assigned to write the opinion.]

October 16 was a typical day on the Internet. A geek lamented: “C is a pain. Python is too slow.” Amen, brother, there’s no shame in getting old, but it’s no fun! But if you’re looking for support on Blackjack The Discord, you’ve come to the wrong place! The conversation devolved into a flame war involving primitive types, mockery of the “perceived speed problem,” and technical explanations of dict support.

Posted on October 22, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 4 Comments

Ida dampens Louisiana’s day; NFL tackles degenerate gambling

September gaming revenues in Louisiana were expected to be diminished by Hurricane Ida and they certainly were, down 23% on a same-store basis. New Orleans had the worst time of it (-48%), Baton Rouge the easiest (-5%). All comparisons are to 2019 numbers. In the Crescent City, Harrah’s New Orleans had a terrible month, grossing only $8 million (-66%) and almost as low as second-place Boomtown New Orleans (just under $8 million, -22%). Fair Grounds racino barely registered with $2 million (-47%), falling behind Amelia Belle ($3 million, -25.5%), while Boyd Gaming‘s other area property, Treasure Chest, grossed $6 million, down 39%. Lake Charles casinos didn’t suffer so spectacularly but they weren’t turning cartwheels either. L’Auberge du Lac took top honors for the month, off only—and amazingly—5% with a gross of $26.5 million, comfortably ahead of Golden Nugget‘s $22.5 million (-23.5%). Dover Downs brought in $12 million, a 21% decline.

Posted on October 21, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — Leave a comment

Sands: From bad to worse; Musk subway system approved for Vegas

Wall Street analysts were frankly underwhelmed by Las Vegas Sands‘ third quarter. Now that the company is wholly reliant upon the afflicted Macao and Singapore markets that’s hardly surprising. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff was pretty blunt, calling Macanese cash flow “barely positive in September,” swinging from a negative August, while characterizing Marina Bay Sands as a “locals” casino these days. (Ouch!) At least Singapore shows signs of easing up on international travel. “In terms of when travel mobility between Mainland China and Macau eases, there is no visibility on when this occurs, given China’s seemingly zero COVID-19 case tolerance; our best sense is that the earliest this takes place is sometime after the Beijing Olympics in February.” It does not help that the Macanese vaccination rate is an unimpressive 50%. At least there were no signs of new regulations upon Macao’s casinos, which is some comfort.

Investment in digital gaming “will likely be small” at least until Pacific Rim cash flow improves. Ditto share repurchases. Sands has $5.6 billion worth of powder that it’s keeping dry. The future, as Greff sees it, is one of sequential improvements “but not a heroic one.” That means mass-market gaming reaching only 60% of 2019 levels next year and VIP play an anemic 35%. By 2023, mass play should be back to 95% of normal but VIPs will still be lagging at half their pre-pandemic level, further validation of Sands’ mass-market strategy.

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