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Then There Were 7 …

Take a long look at that rendering for Bally’s Bronx. You might never see it again. The project got smothered in the crib by the New York City‘s governing council, which voted 26-9 to deny it rezoning from Bally Links. Without that, the $4 billion pipe dream is as good as gone. Gone too are Donald Trump‘s increasingly faint hopes for $115 million “gaming event fee” should Bally’s grab the brass ring. But, contrary to Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim‘s borderline paranoia, the fatal blow was struck from the right, by Councilwoman Kristy Marmorato (R). She was against the project and brought 25 other votes with her. Hard cheese, Soo. The Bally’s boss was thunderstruck by the outcome and has said virtually nothing since that City Council shockeroo.

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Response to a Reader

Bob Dancer

I posted not so long ago that I lost about $150,000 gambling in 2024. In a later blog I remarked that using a coupon for a breakfast buffet at the South Point, incurring a $2 tip, was a good value. A reader, who posts under the name of “Mike,” in separate posts, called me out for the size of the tip and commented that after losing $150,000 in a year, worrying about spending a few dollars on a meal seemed ironic to him.  I took his posts as gentle teasing, but decided to respond.

On the matter of tipping, all I will say is that I generally tip modestly. If a buffet server only brings drinks, I do not tip the same as if they take and serve the food order as well. Everybody has their own rules for tipping and that’s how I do it. You can tease me about it if you want, but I’m unlikely to change. 

But finding it ironic that I was able to lose $150,000 and still “count pennies” in a different situation means Mike really doesn’t understand my methods.

Before calendar year 2024 began, I had every expectation that I would have a nice score during that year. The previous year was quite good, and I had a number of “good plays” in out-of-town casinos that I expected to be profitable. In the 32 tax years between 1993 and 2024 inclusive, I’ve had a positive score 26 of the 32 years. If I start having negative years back-to-back-to-back, I’ll conclude that I’ve lost my touch. There’s no doubt that I make more mistakes now than when I was younger, and the games are definitely tighter, but I still have enough skill and moxie to succeed. For how much longer this will be true, I don’t know. 

Author’s note: the previous sentence was written before I had any idea the new tax bill would drastically change things for gamblers. It is very possible I am near the end of my gambling days, not because of lack of success but because of the crippling tax law that is soon to be in effect.

Every day I gambled in 2024, possibly 280 or so, I was playing situations, both video poker and slots and a minor-yet-important amount of sports betting, where I believed I had the edge, all things considered. I managed my sleep as best I could, so I was at my best when I played. Every hand was played as well as I could (although undoubtedly, I made more mistakes than I used to.)

Frugal decisions have always been part of my methodology — whether I was ahead or behind for the day, week, or year. If I can eat healthily at comped restaurants, I do. If I can find nothing suitable to eat (which is true at some places), I’ll use real cash money to eat elsewhere.

I studied the mailers at the casinos I frequent so I could be at the place with the highest return. Every casino has at least something going on every day, but some days of the week or month are juicier than the others. Usually, the rules weren’t in the mailers, so I needed to make educated guesses some of the time. Sometimes I guessed wrong. Sometimes what was offered by the mailers wasn’t exactly how things turned out. Usually, I didn’t complain about this. After all, I’m a long-term winner at many of these places and complaining when everything doesn’t go my way is probably not the best way to keep my welcome.

The actual score of -$150,000 was just where it happened to be when the end of the year came along. It implies an average monthly loss of $12,500, but my monthly scores were never near that. I had winning months and a gruesome weekend where I lost $45,000. My low-point was at -$180,000 but I hit a $40,000 royal flush in late December to pull me back to “only” -$150,000. 

At the start of 2025, I was optimistic about having a good year. A “one in a row” bad year doesn’t mean the next year will be bad as well. Fortunately, on January 2, 2025, I connected on a $20,000 royal flush along with three additional jackpots of $5,000 each, and this has been a good year so far through the first six-and-a-half months.

I understand most of my readers have smaller gambling bankrolls than I do, and the ability to sustain a $150,000 annual loss and basically shrug it off is something that is never going to happen to them. Still, all of us go through swings. If I’m going to write honestly about my gambling career, which I believe is what most of my readers want me to do, I’m going to have to use real numbers.

My decision to use the buffet coupon and eat breakfast for the price of a modest tip was not a one-off event for me by any means. My annual score, whether this year, last year, or any other year, had nothing to do with that decision. Buffets are excellent places to eat healthily if you’re good at resisting the unhealthy-yet-very-attractive temptations. Usually, I’m good at that. Not always. I’m always looking for a bargain, although I don’t look as hard for bargains as I did when I had less of a bankroll. If Mike wants to consider that irony, so be it.

The winning process, whether in gambling or in any other endeavor, is in major part a mindset. My mindset is to almost always be looking for ways to succeed. If I shut off such a mindset after having a bad experience, I might never get back on the right track again.

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Bobby Vegas — Free cookies AND a Video Poker Strategy Guide for $9.88 ? Heaven

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

Talk about stacking. My “Video Poker Strategy Guide” e-book deal just got, much sweeter. Literally!

Using Tiffs Treats Summer Pass mentioned in my previous blog, I’m giving LVA subscribers a dozen FREE made-to-order warm cookies with the purchase of the mobile “Frugal Video Poker Strategy Guide” e-book and my “Best Video Poker on the Strip” booklet, for $9.88. I’m giving away one dozen every day this month until gone.

They’re packaged in one or two blue-ribbon-wrapped boxes (option for a personal message). You can also gift your cookies.

The cookies would cost $24/dozen. That’s $44 in value for under $10 and that’s a sweet value play.

You just have to pick up your cookies at one of 150 locations. Where? You can find them here.

There are four locations in Las Vegas (Henderson, downtown, Boca Park, and Arroyo), 100 (!) in Texas, 15 in So Cal and Georgia, 6 in Florida, 4 each in Arizona, Colorado, and Kansas and 8 each in North Carolina and Tennessee.

How it works:

1) Find a location you can pick up your dozen free cookies at.

2) Go to BobbyVegas.com. Order your Mobile “Frugal Video Poker Strategy Guide” e-book and “Best Video Poker on the Strip” booklet using code COOKIE for $9.88.

3) Once your VP Strategy Guide and Best VP Booklet are downloaded, go to the CookieDelivery website and choose up to two types of cookies (or order a mixed box), 6 each or 12. I’m into Double Chocolate Chip (I also like Double Bonus Poker) and Banana Nut.

Send an email to [email protected] with your name, email, the name you’ll pick up under, and your (preferred) date, time, and location for pickup.

If the location list doesn’t show the EXACT address, it’s in a Jason’s Deli.

4) Your warm cookies will be waiting for you.

Upon order confirm, we send you the address.

Limitations

LVA Subscribers only.

I have only one dozen free per day to give away, so once that day is claimed, we’ll suggest the next day available for you to confirm.

Pickups from 8:30 a.m. to 9:15 p.m. 7 days a week.

Best to order and then request delivery the next day.

Once all days are claimed, the promotion is over and we’ll announce it on LVA.

Most pick up locations are Jason’s Deli. Some are Tiff’s Treats.

Multiple orders? Yes. You can order as many days as you want ( until all days are claimed) @ $9.88 each.

If you want to get or give 6 or 12 cookies to friends, associates, or family, have at it; $10 for 12 cookies is a very good deal alone. You still get the VP Guides.

Once over, the “Frugal Video Poker Guide” and “Best Video Poker on the Strip” will still be $9.88 for subscribers (SUBSCRIBE) … just no cookies.

Enjoy!

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Will Congress Right a Wrong?

Wow, you folks must have had phones on Capitol Hill ringing off the hook. Momentum is building to repeal the gambling-tax hike cosseted within the 2025 budget bill. For a while it looked as though Rep. Dina Titus (D) was going it alone. However, her cutely named FAIR BET Act is picking up support. In addition to cosponsors Rep. Troy Nehls (R) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D), it looks to have the backing of Reps. Mark Amodei (R), Jeff Van Drew (R) and Guy Reschenthaler (R).

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DFS is SOL

Now it can be revealed ...

Any child knows that ‘daily fantasy sports’ is a fancy name for sports betting. The primary fantasy at work is the notion that it ISN’T sports wagering. If you field the 2025 Los Angeles Dodgers but swap out a measly player or two, you’re in clover. After all, the success or failure of your “team” is predicated on real-world stats as compiled by real-world athletes. It’s sports betting, plain and simple.

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Do Tariffs Affect Winning in the Casino?

Bob Dancer

I rarely write about politics. After all, whatever my political views are, it’s a safe bet that many of you have opposite views. Since part of my business model is to have some of you buy my beat-the-casinos literature, the fewer people I can alienate, the better for me.

Even though tariffs are about as political as it can get these days, what I have to say isn’t particularly political. My subject matter deals with how players take advantage of this situation.

Tariffs, basically, are a tax on imports — intended to protect the home country at the expense of foreign countries. My personal prejudice is that free trade, meaning no tariffs at all, is the better plan, but that’s neither here nor there. It is not my goal to try to convince you that my belief is best.

Consumers and business can adapt to relatively small tariffs if they’re predictable. The problem is uncertainty. If tariffs are announced, and then delayed, and then reinstated at a different rate, and then exceptions are announced, and then the courts make rulings changing the legality of tariffs — and then sometimes overturn those rulings — we have a whole lot of uncertainty. It’s hard for a small business to decide what to order for the Christmas season if that business can’t know what the prices are going to be. 

Casinos, especially the large ones with hotels, have to buy thousands of items of all sorts to supply their needs. Some of those items have been hit with tariffs, which increases their costs the same as any other business.

This is compounded with a shrinking player base. Their customers (including you and me) are facing higher costs due to the tariffs. Many of their bigger customers are small business owners, who are facing an uncertain financial environment. While there are some players who are going to continue to gamble come Hell or high water, many gamblers are cutting back for a while.

Casinos typically react to rising costs and a shrinking player base in one of two completely opposite ways. The first of these is bad for the players and should be avoided, and the second is good for the players and I, for one, am playing more at such casinos.

The first way — bad for the players — is for the casino to tighten everything. Good pay tables are eliminated, mailers cut, and promotions are reduced. The casino is attempting to ride out this economic situation by reducing costs. There are several such casinos in Las Vegas, and I’m reducing or eliminating my play at them.

The second way that casinos deal with this economic situation is to bribe players to come in and play. They do this by having better promotions than they usually do. They reason that they will benefit from extra play as many players are fleeing from the other casinos that are tightening up. There are a few casinos that are doing this. When I find them, I patronize them and attempt to take advantage of their promotions.

This requires more scouting than usual, but for me, so far, once I figured out what to look for, it has been a successful approach. At this point, I’m not identifying the casinos I’m playing at less and the ones I’m playing at more. Maybe later. But once your eyes have been opened to what to look for, it’s not that hard to figure out which casinos have which approach to dealing with this economic situation.

Note: Let’s keep the comments, if any, on ways to beat the casino and away from politics. Whether you are in favor or opposed to Trump and his policies, or believe the courts are helping or hurting the situation, if you post such opinions in this thread, I will delete your post. Whatever your political views, there are other forums where your comments on that are welcome. My blog is not such a forum. Additional note: Since I prepared this blog and before its release date, Congress passed a law greatly penalizing gamblers tax-wise. So greatly that I, for one, am strongly considering giving up gambling at the end of 2025. At the age of 78, I’ll have to figure out what I want to do when I grow up. Richard Munchkin and I are attempting to get our tax guru, Russell Fox, to do a special episode of Gambling with an Edge. Assuming Russell Fox comes on the show, after talking to him I may find a way to continue my profession. We’ll see. As in the previous note, if you comment on this, keep it away from political diatribes. Keep it on the theme of succeeding at gambling.

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Bally’s Stripped for Parts

Big, beautiful Bally’s Chicago (above) looks more and more like the altar upon which Bally’s Corp. will be sacrificed. Company Chairman Soo Kim continues to chop up his company into kindling into order to fuel the money pyre that is the $1.7 billion Chicago megaresort. In part to raise the $450 million he needs in Windy City completion money, Kim cut a deal with Intralot to sell them Gamesys for $3.2 billion. Actually, only $1.7 billion (funny figure, that) is in cash. The remainder is equity in a joint Bally’s/Intralot Internet venture.

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A Couple of Advantage Plays

Bob Dancer

Not so long ago, Huntington Press published Michael Kaplan’s Advantage Players, and I was given a review copy so Richard Munchkin and I could interview Kaplan on one of our irregularly scheduled episodes of Gambling With an Edge.   

I took the book along to an out-of-town casino promotion to read during the plane rides and some other downtime. After reading about how many different gamblers and others use their wits to increase the odds in their favor, I came up with my own — on the spot.

We were on the right side of variance this weekend and were leaving our hotel room at 6:30 in the morning in order to catch a shuttle to the airport. I had just under six figures of cash and unredeemed slot tickets packed away. 

As it turned out, there was a body building competition in the same hotel that weekend, and approaching Bonnie and me were two huge guys — both well over six feet tall — possibly 280 pounds of ripped muscles stretching their form-fitting T shirts. I don’t know why, but these guys didn’t look happy.

I’m 78 years old, pushing a walker, with my right hand in a splint (actually a “spica”) due to recent thumb surgery. Bonnie is older than me by a few years, and time has bent her posture some. It was like we were wearing signs saying “Easy Targets,” or maybe “Easy Pickin’s,” and I was carrying way more money than I wished to part with.

I gave a grim smile at the guys and said, “Good morning. I hope the casino is nicer to you than it was to us.” The guys laughed and let us pass easily — apparently sizing us up as two losers who were down on our luck. Not worth messing with. Which was definitely some more positive variance from my point of view.

Were we ever in danger from these guys? Probably not. (Obviously, to me at least, I was giving up everything if they demanded. We had no relevant defense, and resisting could get us hurt – or worse.) Logically speaking, these guys had spent multiple years and thousands of hours of hard work to create their “perfect” bodies, and beating up old folks would be stupidly putting that at risk. But I couldn’t know that for sure until it was too late, and something was irritating them. So, I acted preemptively. And it worked.

Most AP plays work only some of the time. Most of them shift the odds a bit – say from 49-51 against you to 51-49 in your favor. Still, plenty of room to miss any particular time, but if you constantly work with such an edge, you very likely will prosper. (If you don’t go broke first. There are definitely bankroll issues here that we’re avoiding talking about at the moment.)

One of the parts of the book that reminded me of my own past was in a section about Phil Ivey — who is certainly in the conversation for being the greatest poker player of all time. Phil grew up in a lower-middle class neighborhood, and experienced going broke more than once when he had to sleep outside under bridges because he couldn’t afford anything better.

Paraphrasing, Ivey maintains he learned to play with an advantage because he had to win. He had no safe landing spot. In a sense it’s like being a cornered dog — hyper-alert and ready to pounce on any opportunity. While he is quite well-off financially these days, he remembers when that wasn’t true. While he doesn’t need that extra edge today for survival, he has those skills to fall back on — which takes him to the next level.

For me, it was similar, but not identical. My family wasn’t rich, but I did get help going through college (the undergraduate years, anyway), and so I had solid educational degrees and some job skills when I went broke playing backgammon in 1980. Had I not succeeded at the time, there was some family money I could access, probably. There would have been recriminations and a whole lot of being forced to eat humble pie — which I really wanted to avoid if I could, but that strikes me as a lot less onerous than being forced to live outside under bridges.

For me, it was the fear of going broke that drove me — not the actuality of being broke. I got very nervous when I didn’t have sufficient dollars in the bank, “in case.” I knew the machines gave and they took away and I didn’t have the knowledge or tools to properly calculate bankroll. I usually could figure out if I had the advantage, but I never knew if that advantage was enough.

So, when I moved to Vegas in 1993, I was obtaining and consuming $10-for-$5, $7-for-$5, and even $3-for-$2 table game coupons by the hundreds each month. They were a lot more plentiful back then and $200-$300 per month came from those. I would drive ten miles to pick up $10 in free play and thirty miles across town to pick up $25. I specialized in finding ways to double up on promotions — sometimes day of the week, sometimes time of day, sometimes two or more drawings, miles apart, in the same night. Sometimes partnering up with others — you pick up my free play at here and here and I’ll pick up yours at there and there.

One casino (the Sahara) had a “slot club” where if you bought so many red racks of dollar tokens you would get a free meal. So, I’d buy them from one change booth and sell them at another. (One poster a few weeks ago said he did a similar thing at about the same time with quarters at the Gold Coast. He said it struck him as a “Dancer” thing to do. He was right, although the Gold Coast wasn’t on my radar at the time. But the Sahara was.)

I specialized in examining the rules of most promotions. Often there were loopholes — sometimes pertaining to starting and ending times — where the alert player could gain an edge. Since I had at least some computer programming background, I was able to understand do-this-and-then-do-that versus do-this-only-if-that versus do-this-only-if-two-other-things-happen-first. Understanding that sort of logic was often very effective against marketing departments who would put out a new promotion this month while only tweaking slightly the rules from last month. It was a lot of work on my part, but I was scared of going broke, so I did it.

Gambling is applied math, and the design of promotions requires being good in left brain thinking. Many casinos, fewer than before, like to hire right brain “people people” to work in their marketing departments. For me, this has always been exploitable.

Today the fear of going broke doesn’t drive my actions, but I still read rules and look for loopholes. Age has diminished some of my smarts and skills (and I never was in Phil Ivey’s league smarts-wise), but the skills I learned years ago still seem to be working.