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Wynn spits out SPAC; Penn slammed; Indiana impresses

Headlines are still being made by Wynn Resorts this week. Shockwaves continue to reverberate from CEO Matt Maddox‘s surprise retirement, nearly one year ahead of schedule. His departure comes at a delicate point in negotiations with Macao (or should we say ‘dictations’?), where Maddox has been a key player. Also, it has been revealed that he was thoroughly investigated in 2020 by the board over an anonymously filed allegation of misconduct, phoned in over an employee hotline. Had Maddox failed to divorce himself from the boys-will-be-boys culture of Steve Wynn? We’ll never know and he seems to have been cleared of the charge. But still “It’s all very curious,” as Jefferies analyst David Katz said.

In other news, Wynn Resorts’ retrenchment on the i-gaming and online sports betting front began taking concrete shape. In a curt SEC filing, Wynn let it be known that a merger of Wynn Interactive with special acquisition company Austerlitz I is kaput. “While somewhat surprising, the tea leaves were present in the days leading up to the announcement … and WYNN announced that it was pivoting its strategy in sports betting and iCasino, given the irrational customer acquisition behavior they see taking place in the market,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli. “WYNN noted that it expected 4Q21 losses from the iGaming segment to be considerable ($103 mm 3Q21 loss), and we imagine, 4Q21 losses will exceed those experienced in the 3Q21, given programming of marketing and the busier NFL season.” Santarelli concluded that termination of the JV “could be construed favorably.” Especially for Craig Billings, CEO of Wynn Interactive, who wouldn’t have much to do were he not moving up to the top job at Wynn.

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Wynn drops bombshells; Portnoy’s complaint

Wynn Resorts CEO Matt Maddox is leaving the building, effective Jan. 31. This shockeroo, which inspired a banner headline in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, was trundled out just minutes before the 3Q21 earnings call. Maddox will be succeeded by veteran CFO Craig Billings, who will have the experience and more than enough time for an orderly changeover. Given that former Encore Boston Harbor President Brian Gullbrants is now at the helm of Wynncore, one need not fear that the company will miss a step.

Maddox conceded that he got off to a “rough start” with some, inheriting his job under the cloud of the Steve Wynn sex scandal, “one of the messiest transitions in corporate history.” He didn’t impress us in the early going but proved a steady and proactive leader during the Covid-19 pandemic. Gaming analysts gave rave reviews to both Maddox and Billings, predicting a bright future for Wynn Resorts. As one penned, “barring conspiracy theories around the departure of Mr. Maddox, most notably the implications for the Macau process, of which we think there are virtually none, we expect a smooth transition.”

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New York picks winners, losers; Ohio, even Illinois flex muscles

In hopes of having online sports betting operational in time for the Super Bowl, Empire State gaming regulators announced their picks for the state’s nine OSB license applications late yesterday. Winners were BetMGM (just as Bill Hornbuckle predicted), DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook, Bally’s, Resorts World, PointsBet, WynnBet and Rush Street Interactive. Each will have to partner with a brick-and-mortar casino and pay 51% of gross gaming revenue in taxes, plus $25 million upfront, making the real winner New York State. Forbes calculates it will see a $493 million windfall by 2025. Losers were led by Barstool Sports, which missed the brass ring, a bitter pill for Penn National Gaming to swallow. Could Barstool’s brash image have been a problem? Others out in the cold are bet365 (which rashly tweeted “I will own New York”), theScore, Fanatics and FoxBet.

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New Video Poker Games at G2E

Every fall (except last one because of the pandemic), the world’s largest gaming show meets in Las Vegas for the Global Gaming Expo. All sorts of products directly or indirectly relating to gaming are on display in the exhibit hall, including new slot and video poker games, new table games, new player tracking systems, surveillance products, uniforms, chairs, legal services, architecture firms, etc. 

I specialize in video poker and other games of skill. And this always starts with IGT, which still dominates the market for video poker machines.

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DraftKings talks big, persuades few; Rancor in Richmond

DraftKings divided analysts with its 3Q21 earnings report. Credit Suisse pundit Ben Chaiken said the company was “moving the ball down the field.” That’s despite revenues of $212 million that well undershot Wall Street‘s expected $238 million, rather like a downfield pass that was picked off for an interception. Chaiken blamed the shortfall on low hold on NFL games and an upswing in marketing costs. DraftKings predicts it will bring in $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion next year, not including money from states that have yet to add sports betting. The Street’s consensus is it will be $1.8 billion inclusive of new markets. Chaiken thinks that DKNG will next try to buy or build a media component, as “the next major theme in sports betting will be the emphasis on sports media, which can be used to more efficiently acquire and retain customers.” If a deal can’t be struck with ESPN, look for a purchase of The Athletic.

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Sorry, Mattress Mack

For those who missed it, the Jack Casino was recently rebranded as a Hard Rock Casino, and its opening night featured Cincinnati’s own legend, Pete Rose (now a Vegas resident), to make the inaugural table-games bet. That was appropriate, entertaining, ironic, and sad. Like having an alcoholic make the toast at a wedding.

Now 80, Pete Rose is not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, despite having the record of 4256 career hits (shoutout to my boy, Ichiro, who is in that conversation). The reason? Because in 1989, Rose was banned from Major League Baseball for life, making him ineligible. Why was he banned from baseball? Did he drive 150+ mph on a Vegas residential street and kill someone? No!! Did he beat his girlfriend unconscious in a hotel elevator? Nooo!!!! Did he threaten to jam a tennis ball down the line judge’s f***ing throat? Not once. Did he get caught video-taping opponents? Did he get caught deflating balls (and then lie about it)? Did he jack up on steroids to boost his power hitting? Did he steal signals and implement a team-wide system to cheat his way to a World Series? As far as I know, he didn’t do any of those things.

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MGM to sell Mirage; Caesars disappoints Wall Street

At a time when the north Las Vegas Strip is finally heating up, MGM Resorts International has chosen this moment to put The Mirage on the market. Although it’s 32 years old (224 in dog years), The Mirage should fetch an attractive price—albeit short of the 14X cash flow that Jim Murren used to shop it around at, back in the Great Recession. Best case scenario, MGM disposes of a geographically isolated asset at a handsome markup (look what happened with The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas). It’s a seller’s market and MGM chose its moment wisely. The only drawback for a potential buyer is that only the operational half of The Mirage is for sale, not the underlying real estate. You’d have to settle for being a Vici Properties tenant.

On the upside, you get a lot of real estate to play with: 77 acres, much of it underdeveloped, according to CEO Bill Hornbuckle. He was in altruistic mood, saying “I’m excited for somebody to come in and make it their marquee property.” As for his own company, “we have enough of Las Vegas … We think there is an opportune time, and we think this might be it to sell an asset in Las Vegas. So it, for us, became the obvious one.” No potential buyer or buyers were tipped, although Hornbuckle’s remarks implied he’s looking for someone without a Strip presence. We’re loath to prognosticate. It would be sentimentally pleasing to see Boyd Gaming back on the Strip but …

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Urban One loses; Station thinks big; NFL gets into the slot biz

Richmond voters narrowly chose to cut off their nose to spite their face, voting 51.5% against the Urban One casino proposal. Since casinos were approved by at least 65% in four other Virginia cities in 2020, the resounding question is “Why?” True, an endorsement of Urban One by unpopular gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe (D) probably didn’t help. His victorious opponent, casino investor Glenn Youngkin (R) kept mum on the issue. Although adversaries of Urban One were outspent 10-1, they had the benefit of a wall of NIMBY sentiment at their backs. They were also accused of stoking racial animus and with Urban One polling poorly in predominantly white areas that strategy, if deliberate, may have worked. As of this morning, the casino industry—at least in the private sector—remains an all-white-ownership province.

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What’s More Important than EV?

Not long ago, I mentioned in a blogpost that if the only difference between an IGT game and a Scientific Gaming game was that straight flushes paid 250 in the former and 275 in the latter, I’d choose IGT because I like the feel and touch of IGT games better. I received some pushback for that comment. Some players said going for higher EV is ALWAYS the correct play, while some more thoughtful posters said, “Why don’t you explain, Bob, when you’re willing to give up EV for other things?” Today’s post is intended to partially address that.

The most important starting point for many players should be bankroll. Compare 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54% and a variance of 19.5) with 9/7 Triple Double Bonus (99.58% and a variance of 98.3). Last time I played at Harrah’s Lake Tahoe (pre-pandemic), both games were available on the same 25 cent Hundred Play machine. (Possibly they were only Fifty Play. It was a while ago). The EV is pretty close to the same, but the swings are much higher on the TDB game. Dealt quads on the JoB game earn you $3,125. Dealt quads on TDB range between $6,250 and $100,000. There were promotions in effect that made these games playable to me

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Chicago: Then there were five (?); LV Sands huddles with NY Mets

Or is it three? In the end, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) drew one heavyweight contender for the Windy City casino and a pair of middleweights. Two of the applicants made parlay bids, so the city could crow that it had “five” bidders for the high-tax concession. But despite Lightfoot’s stated aspiration of a Vegas-quality casino, none of the finalists has a Las Vegas return address. Obviously experiencing remorse for having sold its majority stake in Rivers Casino Des Plaines, politically connected Rush Street Gaming is back with two proposals: Rivers Chicago at McCormick and Rivers 78 Gaming. Also dibbing two sites was Bally’s Corp., while the lone heavyweight, Hard Rock International, would manage HR Chicago. None of the no-name bidders turned in paperwork, when it once looked as though they would be all Lightfoot had left.

The billion-dollar resort has yet to be sited, which will be an important factor in the selection processs. The winner also gets slot routes at the city’s two major airports. The casino will need to be a success right out of the chute, given its $160 million-$200 million annual tax liability. Two of the contenders, Rush Street and Bally, are eyeing McCormick Place, which would provide synergy with conventions and expos. Rush Street’s fallback position is a former railroad yard (blah!) in south Chicago, while Bally’s also covets the former Chicago Tribune printing plant. “It would become our flagship.” Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim said of Chi-town casino. On the other side of the coin is non-bidder Bill Hornbuckle, CEO of MGM Resorts International, who maintains, “It’s a struggle how it all adds up.”

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