Previously, we asked the question, “What is an AP?” As an example, I threw out for debate the machine player who learns a few fun facts on Twitter and then wanders around the casino picking up money as a button-pushing zombie. As kids, maybe as early as age 5, my brother and I would look in the coin returns of vending machines and pinball machines, and underneath the washers at the laundromat (those coins get yucky, no TITO!). Doesn’t every kid do that? I wouldn’t call that activity AP, and isn’t that exactly what some machine players are doing today?
It took a while but the Boardwalk is finally even with 2019 numbers. July saw a gambling gross of $277 million, flat with two years ago. Slot win was up 6% on 2% more coin-in but tables declined 14% on only 3% less wagering. Luck was not with the house. That was especially true of Borgata ($64 million), which absorbed a body blow in the form of a 21% decline, driven by a near-cataclysmic 46% plunge in table win on 27% less play. Tighter hold held Borgata slots to only a 6% dip despite 14% less coin-in. The Caesars Entertainment Cerberus was 1% up, with table win 4% higher on 7% greater wagering, while slots were flat (and much tighter) with coin-in down 2%. Individually, Caesars Atlantic City grossed $26 million, a 4.5% gain, Harrah’s Resort slipped 2% to $29 million and Tropicana Atlantic City gained 2% to $29.5 million.
Bally’s Atlantic City was down 8.5% to $16 million and Golden Nugget fell 20% to $15.5 million. At the other end of the spectrum, Ocean Casino Resort shot up 58% to $30 million and Hard Rock Atlantic City solidified its hold on second place with $48 million (+23%). Also revenue-positive was Resorts Atlantic City, up 5.5% to $18.5 million.
According to Wikipedia, “The Golden Rule is the principle of treating others as one wants to be treated. It is a maxim that is found in most religions and cultures. It can be considered an ethic of reciprocity in some religions, although different religions treat it differently.”
I’m not here to debate religion. Consider, however, the following:
A juicy promotion begins at midnight. There are only a few machines that pay well during that promotion. This means only a very few players will get to play the good machines during the promotion, and most will be shut out. You get to one of those machines at 6 p.m. and play the machine slowly. This guarantees you will get to play the desirable machine and others won’t. After midnight you play much faster.
Perhaps the same situation as above, perhaps a different one. You make a deal with another player to “take over” your machine while you sleep, and then give it back to you. Eight to ten hours later, you return the favor. This keeps the machine “in the family,” and others who want to play it, can’t.
It’s a drawing with physical tickets. You’re a proponent of the theory that folding the tickets before putting them into the barrel gives you a better-than-strictly-random chance to win. But anything that increases the odds in your favor, decreases the odds of other players.
A restaurant where you get comped meals has the policy that on your birthday, you get a free piece of Death by Chocolate cake, with forks for everybody else in your party so you can share. You claim about four birthdays a year at each restaurant that has a policy like this. This dishonesty reduces the profits of the restaurant owner for your benefit.
At one casino, playing $20,000 coin-in a month maximizes the benefits you receive. You obtain ten multiple IDs and have a player’s card in each of them. This way, you can get far more benefits from this casino than the casino had designed.
A casino ends a multiple point promotion at midnight, but so long as your card is inserted prior to midnight and remains inserted, you continue to get multiple points long after the promotion is intended to conclude.
You believe that casinos are sleazy organizations and don’t deserve to be treated honestly. So, you look for ways to cheat them.
Someone has left $20 worth of credits on a machine. You insert a $100 bill into the machine, play a few hands, and cash out for $115.
There are only a few “good” machines available on a progressive bank. You want them for your friends. So you bring out foul smelling cigars and begin to smoke them in the vicinity. When other players leave in disgust, your friends sit down, and nobody smokes anymore.
A floor supervisor taps you on the shoulder and asks if the $100 bill on the floor behind you belongs to you. In truth, you have no way of knowing. But your answer is, of course, “It must be. I pulled money out of my pocket and must have dropped that one. Thank you!”
You’re too sick to go to work and expose people you know to your illness, but not too sick to go to a casino and expose strangers.
You are dealt three aces and hold them, except you know you didn’t hold the third ace firmly. You draw the fourth ace, but the third ace “unholds.” Even though you know it’s your own fault, you call the slot supervisor over anyway and complain about stick buttons.
In this episode of my N-part series looking at Colin Jones’s
book, The 21st-Century Card Counter, I’m just going to briefly
comment on various phrases and sentences that caught my eye. This is like the “Mail
Bag” episodes of Gambling with an Edge, or the Potpourri category on
Jeopardy.
[p. 26] “I’m not going to argue whether people should or
should not gamble for entertainment (though it’s my opinion that gambling is a
very high-risk low-reward form of it).” From spending so much time in locals
casinos, I’d say that the percentage of gamblers who are problem gamblers—by virtually
any definition of the term—is much, much higher than the industry would admit. As
a resort destination, Vegas is a different animal. But locals casinos are built
on degenerate gambling. That said, I think there is a role for recreational
gambling, and CJ underestimates how enjoyable it is for some. CJ is a bit
jaded, because blackjack (and baccarat) are not inherently fun games (you
wouldn’t play them for no money), and because card counting as a living takes
the fun out of the game! One of my old friends came to Vegas with me, and afterwards
said, “You’ve ruined Las Vegas for me,” because he could never again see the
experience in the carefree, oblivious way that gamblers do. I turned it into
work.
That in essence is the question posed today by Global Gaming Business, in an excellent article by Marjorie Preston. And if GGB is querying the viability of the Nipponese casino market you know things are bad. Even normally bullish Brendan Bussman tempers his optimism with caution as regards the 30% tax on casino revenues, saying “any time you have a tax rate at that level across the board on slots and tables, it’s difficult for any operator to make the numbers make sense. You could say the same thing about Chicago, which is a 40 percent effective tax rate. That’s why everybody’s pulled out of Chicago.”
Already the heavyweights are retreating. Sample verdicts include those of Wynn Resorts CEO Matt Maddox who said he’d withdraw “if it doesn’t make financial sense.” And it didn’t. Ditto Las Vegas Sands CEO Rob Goldstein: “We’re used to writing big checks, but all that money on one [megaresort] makes you stop, pinch yourself and ask if you can get the returns your shareholders deserve.” The only megawatt operator who’s favored to cinch a spot is MGM Resorts International, which will have to invest $9 billion for the privilege. Elsewhere, cities have chosen to go with obscure Canadian private equity firm Clairvest (?!?!?) and Casinos Austria, which doesn’t currently run anything remotely on the scale the Japanese government wants. Sure, Melco Resorts & Entertainment and Genting Group still have a shot at Yokohama but …
Stop the presses! Illinois casinos actually outperformed 2019 last month by 4%. That’s downright miraculous. They grossed $120 million, led by Rivers Casino Des Plaines‘ $47.5 million, a 28% vault. Harrah’s Joliet was a distant second with $14.5 million (-1%), closely followed by Grand Victoria‘s $14 million (+10%). The prosperity was confined to the northern tier, with Hollywood Aurora up a point to $10 million and Empress Joliet tumbling 20% to $8.5 million. Mid-state, Par-A-Dice slipped 8.5% to $6 million, while Bally’s Corp. will have it’s hands full with Jumer’s Rock Island, which plummeted 33% to $4 million. (Bally’s execs implied on the latest earnings call that they bought it mainly to get in on the sports betting market.) In the southern tier, Harrah’s Metropolis slid 19% to $5.5 million, Argosy Belle was down 8% to $3.5 million and DraftKings Casino Queen declined 11.5% to $7 million. Having two extra weekend days obviously did no harm to the gainers in the marketplace but the losers would surely have been much worse off—though how much worse Jumer’s could get is open to speculation. It used to be one of the best performers in the Land of Lincoln but that was a long time ago.
Incidentally, we now have access to complete numbers from Ohio. To wit, it was a real horserace. Slots-only MGM Northfield Park led with $25 million of a statewide tally of $211 million, up 17% from 2019. Close behind was Hollywood Columbus with $24 million, plus 27%. Jack Cleveland also gave MGM a run for the money with $23.5 million, leaping 38%. Other top grossers were Hollywood Toledo ($21.5 million, +27%), Hard Rock Cincinnati ($21.5 million, +23%), Scioto Downs ($21 million, +34%) and Miami Valley Gaming ($19.5 million, +31%). Other racinos were all revenue-positive: Jack Thistledown ($18 million, +49%), Belterra Park ($9 million, +22%), Hollywood Dayton ($13.5 million, +38%) and Hollywood Mahoning Valley ($15 million, +37%). No, those percentage increases are not typos and we have not been drinking.
I have a 3-days-a-week gym buddy. We do 20 minutes of aerobics, another 20 minutes with weights, and call it a day. It’s not a rigorous routine, but it’s a lot better than no exercise at all, and we’re both better at keeping the schedule if the other guy is there too.
One night I got a text from him saying he took a Covid test for an upcoming trip and tested positive. He was required to quarantine for ten days so would not be at the gym for a while.
Rather than face (well-deserved) impeachment, New York State Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned in disgrace today. Which happened to coincide with the disclosure of the companies which have applied to be online sports betting provider(s) for the Empire State. Cuomo’s not-a-moment-t00-soon departure means that the contenders can hope not to be shaken down or chosen on the basis of how usuriously they are willing to be taxed (isn’t that tantamount to bribe solicitation, guv?). And Cuomo’s obvious favorite, DraftKings, now faces a level playing field. At least that is our hope. The finalists will be Bet365, Penn National Gaming/Kambi, FanDuel/BetMGM/DraftKings, TSG/FoxBet, TheScore and a jumbled combination of Kambi/Caesars Entertainment/Resorts World/PointsBet/WynnBet/Rush Street Interactive. DraftKings still has a very good chance of getting one of the plums, if for no other than reason than it’s riding the coattails of MGM and favorite son Empire City Yonkers. The second Kambi combination platter also has an edge since it contains two other New York brick-and-mortar operators, Rush Street and Resorts World.
“We expect to learn of the winning consortiums, and we believe two will be chosen, in the next 4-6 weeks. Based on the criteria put forth in the RFA, we believe there are obvious front runners from the list, and those for whom the prospects appear dim, based on their track records relative to the RFA selection criteria. That said, it’s New York and anything can happen,” wrote Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank. Yes, anything can happen. Just ask Andrew Cuomo.
Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland has jumped the shark. Her department has wisely-washily neither confirmed nor denied the controversial Seminole Tribe compact with the state of Florida, one that gives the Seminoles control over sports betting in the state. As a result, it goes into effect Oct. 15. What this means, practically speaking, is that we could drive across the Florida state line, park at the nearest rest stop, place a mobile wager from the restroom and have it be classified as ‘tribal gaming’ because all such bets are routed through servers on Seminole sovereign land. Yes, a toilet stall on the interstate could qualify as a ‘tribal gaming’ location under the terms of the compact. Haaland must have known this would be a hot potato, as the Interior Departmentsnuck the decision out under cover of darkness (“quietly and passively,” as one newspaper put it). Or rather, they dumped it on the proverbial curb on Friday, the end of the news cycle when nobody would be looking. A court challenge is inevitable and, we hope, successful.
Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli showed some skepticism of his own. He wrote, “While the initiative is likely to be legally challenged by numerous parties, and while [DraftKings] and FanDuel have partnered to get a petition signed to get on the November 2022 ballot, the way things currently stand, online mobile wagering in Florida is a monopoly, something we believed was likely to be the case, despite optimism around the skin partners. We believe that optimism should have faded once the DKNG/FanDuel effort to seek a different path got underway, as it essentially implied that both operators recognized that the hub and spoke OSB model via the Seminole Tribe wouldn’t work.”
That’s a pretty dry title for this post, about as aptly dry
as Colin Jones’s “The 21st-Century Card Counter.” But the movie
title’s better than the book’s. “Holy Rollers”—not just a play on words, but
also an oxymoron that Hollywood loves. Remember that moment when the Preacher
gunslinger swaps his clerical collar for a pistol in Pale Rider? And now
Netflix has brought us Warrior Nun. It’s very entertaining watching the
ostensible pacifist using violence to attain a righteous end.
Christians, who are presumed to have an aversion to
gambling, take on the House, trying to stick it to the Man (meaning the casino,
not the big G). The result is high drama, and subsequently a blackjack factory
at blackjackapprenticeship.com [to which I have no affiliation].
