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Which Way Is Up?

April, T.S. Eliot told us, is the cruelest month … particularly if you’re trying to make sense of the swings and roundabouts of gaming revenue. For instance, we have contradictory reports from Missouri and Indiana. Let’s start with the good news. In Missouri (as last week’s Illinois numbers hinted), casino revenue rose a hefty 8.5%, achieving $169 million. That was done off only 1.5% greater visitation, so whoever went to play was spending large.

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Something I Had Forgotten

Bob Dancer

In downtown Las Vegas there are three related casinos — Circa, D, and Golden Gate. These properties share the same slot club. Weekly free play from the mailers may be redeemed at any of the properties.

There are shared mixed-game mixed-denomination video poker progressives, mostly at bars, at all three properties — probably more that 200 individual machines. There are separate progressives for 25 cents, 50 cents, $1, $2, and $5 — although the 25-cent denomination is capped at $1,199, which is considerably less than being positive.

Although you have your choice of several games, in terms of return to the player, the best one to play is 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. At reset it is worth 98.5% or so. In early April, I noticed the $2 game at $14,000, which makes it worth 100.2% — plus mailers and other slot club benefits. I decided to go home, practice at the level of $14,500 and come back the next day and start firing.

I knew that last year the LVA Members Reward Coupon Book had coupons for at least two of the three properties where if you play 1,000 points in one 24-hour period, you get $100 in free play. I decided to check to see whether this year’s book had the same. It turns out they did for both Golden Gate and D, but not for Circa. But still, since I was planning to play many hours at this game, I figured that I could redeem both of these coupons. If the progressive went off before I reached the entire $100 in free play, I’d find something else to play.

The next day, the progressive was only at $14,080. I guess nobody figured it was a play yet. But I was there and prepared, so I went to the booth at D and redeemed my coupon. It only took an hour or so to play the 1,000 points, so I went back to the booth and received the free play. This free play was only good at the D rather than all the properties. So, I played off the free play and walked the two blocks to the Golden Gate and repeated the process.

After several hours, I needed to end for the day. The progressive was now at $14,200, but I had to let it go. The next day I was back and the progressive was still live. So, I sat down and started hammering away again. After six or so hours I again had to leave, so I did.

Same thing the next day. Eventually somebody else hit the royal at $15,800 and I was down a couple of thousand dollars — which is what happens when you play progressives and you’re not the one who hits it. No regrets.

When I was reviewing the strategy, I paid most attention to the hands with royal possibilities. Hands where you can’t get a royal, such as 99443, are played the same at all levels of the progressive, but hands like KQJ4 K, where the cards in bold italics are suited with each other, definitely change. At low levels of the progressive, you hold KK. At higher levels you hold KQJ.

Since I knew the 9/6 version of the game perfectly, I just used that strategy most of the time. I knew, for example, that in 9/6, on a hand like an unsuited KQJTT, you hold KQJT but on QJT99 you hold 99. My 8/6 strategy sheet, however, said with QJT99 you should hold QJT9. I wondered if this was an error on my strategy sheet or if this was actually a real difference between the 9/6 and 8/6 versions.

It turned out that my written 8/6 strategy was correct, and with that hand you hold 99 with 9/6 and QJT9 at 8/6. It’s a close play but the extra bit you receive from a 45-coin full house compared to a 40-coin full house is enough to make a difference on the 1-in-98 times you end up with a full house starting from 99.

I’ve played this progressive three or four times in the past, and this strategy change from 9/6 to 8/6 feels like one I would remember. But I didn’t. When I saw it on my 8/6 strategy sheet it seemed completely new to me. Since last time I played it on the $1 machine at $7,600, I just sat down and started to play when I found it. If the QJT99 hand came up that time, I probably misplayed it.

Oh well. My memory isn’t what it used to be, which is why I review before playing. While I am a pretty confident player, I think I’m fortunate that I can recognize my limitations and compensate for them. I know other players who can’t be bothered reviewing strategy because they figure they know everything. 

It sounds almost self-contradictory that I’m proud that I’m humble enough to get help when I need it, but that’s the way it is for me.

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Signs of Life; CEO Axed

Wall Street expected 2025 to be no better than flat with 2024 and so far in April it’s played according to the script. That was certainly the case in Maryland, where casinos grossed $162.5 million. What secret sauce has Caesars Entertainment been putting in the food at Horseshoe Baltimore? The hitherto-hopeless casino was up for the second straight month. Revenues ascended 6% to $15.5 million, anemic for downtown Baltimore but a huge improvement nevertheless.

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Evaluating a Promotion

Bob Dancer

I received an email from a player who told me of a promotion at a Caesars/Harrah’s/Eldorado property. He wanted to know if it was worth playing, although he didn’t say which exact property it was or even in which state it was located, although the player lived in the southeastern part of the United States so that narrows it down somewhat. It seems like for a particular day, the property was offering 5x Next Day Bounceback (NDB) cash.

More than one property in the Caesars Rewards system has daily NDB. Let’s say you’re playing that promotion on a Monday. At the casino where I’ve played it, if you play at least 100 Tier Credits between 6 a.m. Monday and 5:59 a.m. Tuesday, you’ll receive free play at noon on Tuesday. The free play is generally good for 90 days. These parameters do not have to be the same for other properties.

At most of these casinos, it takes $5 coin-in to earn one Tier Credit (TC) for slots and $10 coin-in to earn one TC at video poker. I’ve been at other properties where, for the loosest video poker, it can take $20, $25, or even $50 to earn one TC. Just staying with the standard $10 per TC at video poker, it’s obvious to those with at least a little bit of mathematical facility that it takes twice as much coin-in at video poker to earn the same number of TCs as it does at slots. Therefore, the percentage return of NDB for video poker is half as much for video poker as it is for slots.

If you would earn, say, $200 in a “normal” NDB day, at the casino where I’ve played, playing on a 2x NDB day gives you that $200, and then when you’ve played that off, gives you another $200. The second $200 expires in seven days, not 90.

Any of these parameters can be different at other properties, but at least this gives you a template of what to look for. If I were considering playing at this 5x NDB day, I would do the following:

  1. I would find out how much “regular” NDB is worth. You can do this by actually playing, keeping track of how many TCs you earn, and then see how much NDB you receive the next day. If you know some other player who has played at that casino when NDB was in effect, perhaps they’ll be willing to share the information with you.
  1. Let’s assume at this casino that the daily NDB returns 0.25% for video poker. A 5x NDB day would then be worth 1.25%. Games like 9/6 DDB and 15-9-4-4-3 Deuces Wild now become slightly positive for competent players. If the regular NDB is 0.50% for video poker, then 5x NDB would be worth 2.50% and several additional games now are worth more than 100% if you play them correctly.
  1. Normal Caesars Rewards benefits remain in effect. That is, Reward Credits (RCs) (generally earned 1-1 along with TCs) may be redeemed for comps, free play, or sports bets. Play enough and you can earn Platinum, Diamond, or Seven Stars status — each with benefit packages. Playing 500 TCs in one day earns you a 500 TC bonus. There are a number of steps topping out at a 10,000 TC bonus for 5,000 or more TCs earned in a day. If you play enough, you may well get offers in the mail with incentives to come back.
  1. I would check to see how long the NDB free play is good. If this is not a casino that I knew I’d be back to before the free play expired, I would stay at least until noon the next day and play off what I’ve earned. Although this will reduce my daily theoretical by 50% for this trip (assuming it will become a two-day trip instead of a one-day trip), generally speaking collecting the NDB I’ve earned is worth more than the reduced theoretical.
  1. I would check the entire floor to see what games are available. If there are only a few “good” machines, I might be there at 4 a.m. for a promotion that starts at 6 a.m. If I had a friend or two who were interested in playing the same machine during the same promo, I might agree on a schedule where all of us got to play our hours over the 24-hour period. I would look for friends who could be depended on to play the hours they agreed to. I would not want someone who, say, would leave early if they got down $1,000 or so. If that happened, whoever had a “shift” after that might well not have a seat available.
  1. If the best game isn’t one I knew how to play, I would learn it. I sell strategy cards and Winner’s Guides for a number of games and the Wizard of Odds website has a video poker strategy calculator that works for several games. Videopoker.com has, for a fee, an online “Pro” game where you can practice and get corrections until you have a game mastered. You can get a monthly subscription or an annual one. The more time you have between knowing which games are available and the day the 5x NDB is in effect, the more time you have to perfect your skills. There will always be players who show up on the day of the promotion and “wing it” without preparation, but that’s not the practice I recommend.
  1. If I were a big player (say, $25 machines or maybe $5 Ten Play) I’d definitely check with Caesars Rewards if there’s a limit on how much I can earn in a day. If the 5x NDB were worth 2%, for example, playing 9/6 Double Double Bonus perfectly is worth about 101% until I reach the daily limit but only about 99% thereafter. That would certainly affect how many hours I wanted to attack the machines.
  1. Assuming profit maximization is my goal, with the NDB, with or without a multiplier, it can be better to play a lesser game EV-wise at higher stakes than a higher game EV-wise at lower stakes. For example, let’s assume for $1 stakes you can play 8-5 Bonus worth 99.17% and for $5 stakes 9/6 DDB, worth 98.98% is available. If you can play $4,000 coin-in per hour on the dollar game and $20,000 coin-in per hour on the $5 game, with most NDB amounts the DDB game has a higher dollar EV. Keep in mind that even though playing DDB has a higher dollar EV, the variance is much higher than that of BP and it’s possible to lose MUCH more than what you’ll get back from NDB. If you have the financial and psychological bankroll for this, go for it! But it’s not my fault if it doesn’t turn out well for you this particular time. As in all gambling, if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen!
  1. There are properties where even with 2% bounce back, there are no games I would consider playing. Since I don’t know which casino we’re talking about, I can’t give a definite recommendation to play. But if I lived relatively close and was going to be available on the day of the 5x event, I’d definitely check it out.
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Bobby Vegas: Give ‘Em Good Gamble

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

Not too long ago, I was feted by a “mid- to high roller” who took me to dinner at Le Cirque at Bellagio. Though we weren’t next to the window with a direct view of the Fountains, it was a very nice corner table. The waiters, sommeliers, and staff all fawned over us. We chose the basic four-course meal and each had one drink. My buddy told me the folks at the next able were drinking a Champagne that was $180 per glass.

The meal was fine—elegant and tasteful. I thought they were a bit stingy on the bread, which wasn’t warm. My guy had a $500 comp and the bill came to more than $750.

Was this better than a meal at Rainbow’s Triple B Diner where just about everything is homemade, entrees are under $12, and I paid with points at half-price using an LVA MRB coupon?

Well, not $740 better, not for me, no. And frankly, I’m a bit uncomfortable with all the fawning and obsequiousness. I’d rather “rock the block” on Fremont, play FP VP and stop in for a slice at Pizza Rock. Or a great prime rib.

Look, it’s Vegas. You can have any fantasy you want. ANY FANTASY — if you’re willing to pay. My fantasy is the one where I pay as little as possible. As my Carolina friends would say, “I got no truck with you doing what you do. It just ain’t what I want to do.” You want to live the high life? It’s your money. For my money, I’d rather stay at the Rio for four nights for $107 total. Walk right into the Pinky Ring. Get a smokin’ bingo deal at the Plaza.

As Jack Black said in School of Rock: “ Stickin’ it to the man.” THAT’S what I love.

Writing this blog today, I’ve had an epiphany. More than an advantage player, I’m a value player. While the casinos work to extract everything they can from us, I work to extract as much as I can from them. Smart. Legal. Well thought out. And then I get to share it with you, what Malcolm Gladwell in The Tipping Point calls an “information maven.”

And maybe now, as the hold on the Strip continues to drop, they’re starting to reconsider hosing everybody on resort fees, parking fees, etc. fees, etc. Okay, maybe not Caesars or MGM at least right away, but I believe we are starting to see cracks in their greed.

Most of us will be coming back and most of us understand it ain’t for free. Exactly like taxes, I’m willing to pay, but I want to pay as little as is legally allowed. And if we give our hard earned shekels to the Plazas, Downtown Grands, Four Queens, and others giving us good gamble, then the give-good-gamble houses will prosper. We “give-us-good-gamble gamblers” will keep coming back again and again.

So if dropping $750 on dinner rocks your world, go for it. As for us, we do our best to have a good time, get a good deal, and as Benny Binion would say, get a good gamble.

Because we love Vegas.

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Let Them Eat Stock Options

You see this guy? That’s the dude who’s pissing on your head and telling you it’s just mild precipitation. He’s better known as Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg and, earlier this week, he made pronouncements that landed somewhere between insensitive and clueless. Both Caesars and MGM Resorts International, as well as their landlord, Vici Properties, sent their CEOs out to declare Everything Is Better Than Ever. Never mind that, on the Las Vegas Strip (where all three companies are bunched), gambling revenue has been down two months in a row—and seven of the last eight. Nope, it’s all copacetic, they say. Then again, these are the guys who brought you the biblical pestilence known as Formula One Weekend, so take that into account.

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