Downtown Grand CEO Seth Schorr is nobody’s idea of a stoner. We’ve met him a few times and never observed Schorr to sport Rastafarian dreadlocks nor light up a spliff. But the Downtown Grand boss would rather be blowing smoke than (as his casino is currently doing) sucking wind. Nobody wants to buy the place, even though it’s been on the market for aeons. Nor do they want to go there. If you want some peace and quiet in Las Vegas, try the Grand’s gaming floor.
Continue reading Up in Smoke
I received a strange email from a reader. I’m not 100% positive what I’m telling him is correct, but it’s what makes sense to me. Here it is:
I play slots and get weekly free play from MGM Grand and related properties in Las Vegas. If I redeem the free play at the MGM itself, it’s $100. If I redeem it at Park MGM, Aria, or any other MGM property on the west side of Las Vegas Boulevard, it’s $125. What gives?
The most likely explanation for this, in my opinion, is that the MGM Grand itself has looser slots than the other MGM properties. Assuming you’re going to play $20,000 or so through the machine when you come in (in order to keep getting the mailer), they’d rather you do it at the casinos with the tighter slots — so they reward you for doing so.
If you know about beating slots, shade your strike numbers depending on which side of the street you’re playing on. That is, if there was a game where you normally look for the minor being at least 17 before you play, use that number at the MGM Grand and 18 or 19 across the street.
Depending on how much you value your time, it’s probably best if you cash your free play on the west side of the Strip and do the vast majority of your playing at the MGM Grand itself. Even though the properties are right across the street from each other, the casinos are so large it can be a 10- or 15-minute walk to get from one to the other.
So Long to an Old Friend
At the South Point, I’ve played 9/6 Jacks or Better on the Five Play Multi Strike machines for years. Denominated in quarters, it was a 100-coin game, so it took $25 to fully load. It was a 99.8% game. In early April they downgraded these machines to 9/5 Jacks or Better, which makes them too tight to be interesting to me.
Even when they had the good pay schedules, they had nickel and dime games on the same boxes that were much tighter, and even the quarter games other than Jacks or Better were pretty tight.
There are plenty of other games to play at South Point, but I’m sorry to see these particular ones go.
So Long to Another Old Friend
At the Four Queens in downtown Las Vegas, the dollar 10-7 Double Bonus machines are now gone. They’ve been a fixture at this casino for at least 30 years. Playing 50 cent 9/6 Jacks single line may be the best video poker alternative. It’s still slightly positive with the slot club, mailers, and promotions.
A Seven Stars Perk
One of the benefits of being Seven Stars in the Caesars/Harrah’s/Eldorado system, at least if you’re in Nevada, is that you get a monthly $150 free bet from Caesars Sports Book when you bet $100 or more. You used to be able to use Reward Credits to qualify for this free bet, but no longer.
The free bet is set up so regardless if you win or lose, you do not get the initial wager back. That is, if you bet at -200, which means you should win two-thirds of the time (not counting for the vig), you’ll collect a total of $75 for that $150 free bet. If you only collect that bet two-thirds of the time, that means your free bet is worth $50.
If you bet at +200, which means you should win one-third of the time (not counting for the vig), you’ll collect $300. Collecting $300 one-third of the time means your free bet is worth $100. Much better! And it’s easy to conclude that betting underdogs using free bets is better than betting favorites. I generally find a bet between +250 and +350 for my free bet.
For my initial bet, I find a bet around -200. I’m not sure why, but a sports bettor I respect told me I give up the least vig that way.
Since these bets are a relatively small part of my monthly betting budget, I can use these quick rules of thumb without knowing a lot about successful sports betting. These markets are efficient enough that, so long as I get the bonus bet, it’s basically a certainty that I’ll profit over time. While I did learn a little about successful sports betting from co-hosting the podcast where we interviewed a number of successful sports bettors, my “expertise” is limited and the rules of thumb presented here are satisfactory enough for me.
If they stop giving away the bonus bet, I’ll continue using RCs to bet. Since I get to bet the RCs at face value, even if I’m only playing a 94% game at the sports book, that’s much better than playing a 50% game by redeeming the RCs for free play.
When I stay at a Caesars property, which I do when I’m out of town, the hosts must use my accumulated RCs before they are allowed to comp anything. Since I play enough to merit being comped, I zero out my RCs at the sports book before I leave because the RCs would disappear if I didn’t. Some of the bets will win, so I’m virtually guaranteed to profit over time if I do this.
An NSU Puzzler
You’re playing NSU Deuces Wild, and the first four cards dealt on a hand are a deuce, a four, a five, and a king —- all spades. Of the 48 equally likely cards that could be dealt as the fifth card, how many are there where the correct hold is deuce, four, five?
Rather than give you the answer immediately, I’ll spend an entire column on this puzzler soon.
And then there were nine. Take a good look at that rendering. You won’t see it again. Yesterday, Wynn Resorts pulled in its horns and announced it was decamping from New York City‘s casino derby. The stated reason? “Political opposition.” For those who oppose casinos on the grounds that they appeal to the lowest common denominator, this event is ironic. Wynn’s casino, if approved, would easily have been the most high-end in the Five Boroughs.
Continue reading The NIMBYs Are Winning
This week Anthony and Andrew give a quick update which includes the announcement of Huntington Press’ newest book, Advantage Players.
April, T.S. Eliot told us, is the cruelest month … particularly if you’re trying to make sense of the swings and roundabouts of gaming revenue. For instance, we have contradictory reports from Missouri and Indiana. Let’s start with the good news. In Missouri (as last week’s Illinois numbers hinted), casino revenue rose a hefty 8.5%, achieving $169 million. That was done off only 1.5% greater visitation, so whoever went to play was spending large.
Continue reading Which Way Is Up?
In downtown Las Vegas there are three related casinos — Circa, D, and Golden Gate. These properties share the same slot club. Weekly free play from the mailers may be redeemed at any of the properties.
There are shared mixed-game mixed-denomination video poker progressives, mostly at bars, at all three properties — probably more that 200 individual machines. There are separate progressives for 25 cents, 50 cents, $1, $2, and $5 — although the 25-cent denomination is capped at $1,199, which is considerably less than being positive.
Although you have your choice of several games, in terms of return to the player, the best one to play is 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. At reset it is worth 98.5% or so. In early April, I noticed the $2 game at $14,000, which makes it worth 100.2% — plus mailers and other slot club benefits. I decided to go home, practice at the level of $14,500 and come back the next day and start firing.
I knew that last year the LVA Members Reward Coupon Book had coupons for at least two of the three properties where if you play 1,000 points in one 24-hour period, you get $100 in free play. I decided to check to see whether this year’s book had the same. It turns out they did for both Golden Gate and D, but not for Circa. But still, since I was planning to play many hours at this game, I figured that I could redeem both of these coupons. If the progressive went off before I reached the entire $100 in free play, I’d find something else to play.
The next day, the progressive was only at $14,080. I guess nobody figured it was a play yet. But I was there and prepared, so I went to the booth at D and redeemed my coupon. It only took an hour or so to play the 1,000 points, so I went back to the booth and received the free play. This free play was only good at the D rather than all the properties. So, I played off the free play and walked the two blocks to the Golden Gate and repeated the process.
After several hours, I needed to end for the day. The progressive was now at $14,200, but I had to let it go. The next day I was back and the progressive was still live. So, I sat down and started hammering away again. After six or so hours I again had to leave, so I did.
Same thing the next day. Eventually somebody else hit the royal at $15,800 and I was down a couple of thousand dollars — which is what happens when you play progressives and you’re not the one who hits it. No regrets.
When I was reviewing the strategy, I paid most attention to the hands with royal possibilities. Hands where you can’t get a royal, such as 99443, are played the same at all levels of the progressive, but hands like KQJ4 K, where the cards in bold italics are suited with each other, definitely change. At low levels of the progressive, you hold KK. At higher levels you hold KQJ.
Since I knew the 9/6 version of the game perfectly, I just used that strategy most of the time. I knew, for example, that in 9/6, on a hand like an unsuited KQJTT, you hold KQJT but on QJT99 you hold 99. My 8/6 strategy sheet, however, said with QJT99 you should hold QJT9. I wondered if this was an error on my strategy sheet or if this was actually a real difference between the 9/6 and 8/6 versions.
It turned out that my written 8/6 strategy was correct, and with that hand you hold 99 with 9/6 and QJT9 at 8/6. It’s a close play but the extra bit you receive from a 45-coin full house compared to a 40-coin full house is enough to make a difference on the 1-in-98 times you end up with a full house starting from 99.
I’ve played this progressive three or four times in the past, and this strategy change from 9/6 to 8/6 feels like one I would remember. But I didn’t. When I saw it on my 8/6 strategy sheet it seemed completely new to me. Since last time I played it on the $1 machine at $7,600, I just sat down and started to play when I found it. If the QJT99 hand came up that time, I probably misplayed it.
Oh well. My memory isn’t what it used to be, which is why I review before playing. While I am a pretty confident player, I think I’m fortunate that I can recognize my limitations and compensate for them. I know other players who can’t be bothered reviewing strategy because they figure they know everything.
It sounds almost self-contradictory that I’m proud that I’m humble enough to get help when I need it, but that’s the way it is for me.
My guest on this episode is Nigel Eccles, co-founder of Fan Duel.
It’s our fourth jackpot show and this week Anthony and Andrew talk about the biggest jackpots ever hit, a 1 in 649,740 Royal Flush, a couple LVA jackpots, and more.
Wall Street expected 2025 to be no better than flat with 2024 and so far in April it’s played according to the script. That was certainly the case in Maryland, where casinos grossed $162.5 million. What secret sauce has Caesars Entertainment been putting in the food at Horseshoe Baltimore? The hitherto-hopeless casino was up for the second straight month. Revenues ascended 6% to $15.5 million, anemic for downtown Baltimore but a huge improvement nevertheless.
Continue reading Signs of Life; CEO Axed
The VGK dispatched of the Minnesota Wild in 6 games, and it’s on to Round 2 vs the Edmonton Oilers. Eddie & Chris break down all the series in Round 1, make predictions for Round 2, and offer an in-depth analysis of what it will take for the VGK to move on to the Western Conference Finals.
