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Evaluating a Promotion

Bob Dancer

I received an email from a player who told me of a promotion at a Caesars/Harrah’s/Eldorado property. He wanted to know if it was worth playing, although he didn’t say which exact property it was or even in which state it was located, although the player lived in the southeastern part of the United States so that narrows it down somewhat. It seems like for a particular day, the property was offering 5x Next Day Bounceback (NDB) cash.

More than one property in the Caesars Rewards system has daily NDB. Let’s say you’re playing that promotion on a Monday. At the casino where I’ve played it, if you play at least 100 Tier Credits between 6 a.m. Monday and 5:59 a.m. Tuesday, you’ll receive free play at noon on Tuesday. The free play is generally good for 90 days. These parameters do not have to be the same for other properties.

At most of these casinos, it takes $5 coin-in to earn one Tier Credit (TC) for slots and $10 coin-in to earn one TC at video poker. I’ve been at other properties where, for the loosest video poker, it can take $20, $25, or even $50 to earn one TC. Just staying with the standard $10 per TC at video poker, it’s obvious to those with at least a little bit of mathematical facility that it takes twice as much coin-in at video poker to earn the same number of TCs as it does at slots. Therefore, the percentage return of NDB for video poker is half as much for video poker as it is for slots.

If you would earn, say, $200 in a “normal” NDB day, at the casino where I’ve played, playing on a 2x NDB day gives you that $200, and then when you’ve played that off, gives you another $200. The second $200 expires in seven days, not 90.

Any of these parameters can be different at other properties, but at least this gives you a template of what to look for. If I were considering playing at this 5x NDB day, I would do the following:

  1. I would find out how much “regular” NDB is worth. You can do this by actually playing, keeping track of how many TCs you earn, and then see how much NDB you receive the next day. If you know some other player who has played at that casino when NDB was in effect, perhaps they’ll be willing to share the information with you.
  1. Let’s assume at this casino that the daily NDB returns 0.25% for video poker. A 5x NDB day would then be worth 1.25%. Games like 9/6 DDB and 15-9-4-4-3 Deuces Wild now become slightly positive for competent players. If the regular NDB is 0.50% for video poker, then 5x NDB would be worth 2.50% and several additional games now are worth more than 100% if you play them correctly.
  1. Normal Caesars Rewards benefits remain in effect. That is, Reward Credits (RCs) (generally earned 1-1 along with TCs) may be redeemed for comps, free play, or sports bets. Play enough and you can earn Platinum, Diamond, or Seven Stars status — each with benefit packages. Playing 500 TCs in one day earns you a 500 TC bonus. There are a number of steps topping out at a 10,000 TC bonus for 5,000 or more TCs earned in a day. If you play enough, you may well get offers in the mail with incentives to come back.
  1. I would check to see how long the NDB free play is good. If this is not a casino that I knew I’d be back to before the free play expired, I would stay at least until noon the next day and play off what I’ve earned. Although this will reduce my daily theoretical by 50% for this trip (assuming it will become a two-day trip instead of a one-day trip), generally speaking collecting the NDB I’ve earned is worth more than the reduced theoretical.
  1. I would check the entire floor to see what games are available. If there are only a few “good” machines, I might be there at 4 a.m. for a promotion that starts at 6 a.m. If I had a friend or two who were interested in playing the same machine during the same promo, I might agree on a schedule where all of us got to play our hours over the 24-hour period. I would look for friends who could be depended on to play the hours they agreed to. I would not want someone who, say, would leave early if they got down $1,000 or so. If that happened, whoever had a “shift” after that might well not have a seat available.
  1. If the best game isn’t one I knew how to play, I would learn it. I sell strategy cards and Winner’s Guides for a number of games and the Wizard of Odds website has a video poker strategy calculator that works for several games. Videopoker.com has, for a fee, an online “Pro” game where you can practice and get corrections until you have a game mastered. You can get a monthly subscription or an annual one. The more time you have between knowing which games are available and the day the 5x NDB is in effect, the more time you have to perfect your skills. There will always be players who show up on the day of the promotion and “wing it” without preparation, but that’s not the practice I recommend.
  1. If I were a big player (say, $25 machines or maybe $5 Ten Play) I’d definitely check with Caesars Rewards if there’s a limit on how much I can earn in a day. If the 5x NDB were worth 2%, for example, playing 9/6 Double Double Bonus perfectly is worth about 101% until I reach the daily limit but only about 99% thereafter. That would certainly affect how many hours I wanted to attack the machines.
  1. Assuming profit maximization is my goal, with the NDB, with or without a multiplier, it can be better to play a lesser game EV-wise at higher stakes than a higher game EV-wise at lower stakes. For example, let’s assume for $1 stakes you can play 8-5 Bonus worth 99.17% and for $5 stakes 9/6 DDB, worth 98.98% is available. If you can play $4,000 coin-in per hour on the dollar game and $20,000 coin-in per hour on the $5 game, with most NDB amounts the DDB game has a higher dollar EV. Keep in mind that even though playing DDB has a higher dollar EV, the variance is much higher than that of BP and it’s possible to lose MUCH more than what you’ll get back from NDB. If you have the financial and psychological bankroll for this, go for it! But it’s not my fault if it doesn’t turn out well for you this particular time. As in all gambling, if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen!
  1. There are properties where even with 2% bounce back, there are no games I would consider playing. Since I don’t know which casino we’re talking about, I can’t give a definite recommendation to play. But if I lived relatively close and was going to be available on the day of the 5x event, I’d definitely check it out.
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Bobby Vegas: Give ‘Em Good Gamble

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

Not too long ago, I was feted by a “mid- to high roller” who took me to dinner at Le Cirque at Bellagio. Though we weren’t next to the window with a direct view of the Fountains, it was a very nice corner table. The waiters, sommeliers, and staff all fawned over us. We chose the basic four-course meal and each had one drink. My buddy told me the folks at the next able were drinking a Champagne that was $180 per glass.

The meal was fine—elegant and tasteful. I thought they were a bit stingy on the bread, which wasn’t warm. My guy had a $500 comp and the bill came to more than $750.

Was this better than a meal at Rainbow’s Triple B Diner where just about everything is homemade, entrees are under $12, and I paid with points at half-price using an LVA MRB coupon?

Well, not $740 better, not for me, no. And frankly, I’m a bit uncomfortable with all the fawning and obsequiousness. I’d rather “rock the block” on Fremont, play FP VP and stop in for a slice at Pizza Rock. Or a great prime rib.

Look, it’s Vegas. You can have any fantasy you want. ANY FANTASY — if you’re willing to pay. My fantasy is the one where I pay as little as possible. As my Carolina friends would say, “I got no truck with you doing what you do. It just ain’t what I want to do.” You want to live the high life? It’s your money. For my money, I’d rather stay at the Rio for four nights for $107 total. Walk right into the Pinky Ring. Get a smokin’ bingo deal at the Plaza.

As Jack Black said in School of Rock: “ Stickin’ it to the man.” THAT’S what I love.

Writing this blog today, I’ve had an epiphany. More than an advantage player, I’m a value player. While the casinos work to extract everything they can from us, I work to extract as much as I can from them. Smart. Legal. Well thought out. And then I get to share it with you, what Malcolm Gladwell in The Tipping Point calls an “information maven.”

And maybe now, as the hold on the Strip continues to drop, they’re starting to reconsider hosing everybody on resort fees, parking fees, etc. fees, etc. Okay, maybe not Caesars or MGM at least right away, but I believe we are starting to see cracks in their greed.

Most of us will be coming back and most of us understand it ain’t for free. Exactly like taxes, I’m willing to pay, but I want to pay as little as is legally allowed. And if we give our hard earned shekels to the Plazas, Downtown Grands, Four Queens, and others giving us good gamble, then the give-good-gamble houses will prosper. We “give-us-good-gamble gamblers” will keep coming back again and again.

So if dropping $750 on dinner rocks your world, go for it. As for us, we do our best to have a good time, get a good deal, and as Benny Binion would say, get a good gamble.

Because we love Vegas.

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Let Them Eat Stock Options

You see this guy? That’s the dude who’s pissing on your head and telling you it’s just mild precipitation. He’s better known as Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg and, earlier this week, he made pronouncements that landed somewhere between insensitive and clueless. Both Caesars and MGM Resorts International, as well as their landlord, Vici Properties, sent their CEOs out to declare Everything Is Better Than Ever. Never mind that, on the Las Vegas Strip (where all three companies are bunched), gambling revenue has been down two months in a row—and seven of the last eight. Nope, it’s all copacetic, they say. Then again, these are the guys who brought you the biblical pestilence known as Formula One Weekend, so take that into account.

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Khoury’s Mediterranean Restaurant

Mediterranean food, particularly Middle Eastern, is one of the “in” culinary trends of late, but all the new restaurants have some work to do to catch up to Khoury’s, which has been operating since 1966 (not to be confused with Khoury’s Fine Win & Spirits, a wine shop on the east side). What sets Khoury’s apart from other Mediterranean restaurants in Las Vegas is that it’s Lebanese, which is a different style from Greek, Iranian, or any of the others that serve Mediterranean cuisine.

Off the Strip

Khoury’s is located at 9340 W. Sahara, which is a bit of a drive, about 11 miles from the Strip. The easiest route is to go straight up Sahara and it’s in a shopping mall at the corner of Sahara and Ft. Apache. We’ve eaten here with Lebanese friends who confirm that this is the real deal, so you’ll find it worth the trip. Khoury’s is open seven days a week from 11 am to 9 pm (10 pm weekends).

The Food

All the Lebanese favorites are here: hummus; baba ghanoush; loubieh (green beens); bamieh (okra); olives; pickles; grape leaves; falafel; six different kabobs; schwarma and gyro sandwiches; lentil or beef and rice tomato soup; and salads of all kinds made with tomatoes, cucumbers, beans, spinach, onions, mint, lemon juice, even some with lettuce, and we rate the tabbouleh as the best in town. Chicken livers are $17.95, Farooj (whole baked chicken in spices) $23.95, and lamb chops $32.95. Good stuff, but we go for the kibbi-naya ($34.95), ground raw lamb mixed with cracked wheat and spices. Scoop it with the pita that’s baked fresh in brick ovens and brought to the table hot and risen.

The Mediterranean Feast

You want to get a taste of lots of things here, so you can go for the house mezza ($35.95) or mini-house mezza ($21.95). There’s also a “dinner for two” option ($54.95) that gives you a choice of several options. If you want to go nuts, the Mediterranean Feast is available for parties of six or more for $32.95 per person. It’s a whole lotta grub. We did it, but probably wouldn’t again, as some of the meat dishes were dry and there are just too many other good things on the menu to go for rather than the MF that’s bound to have some things you don’t necessarily want.

The Verdict

Khoury’s is our top pick of all of Las Vegas’ Middle Eastern options. Our play is the kibbi-naya and tabbouleh, which is easily enough for two, for $50. If raw lamb isn’t your thing, there are the options listed here and more. Top it off with an Almaza Lebanese beer.

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Oyster Bar (Red Rock Resort)

More good things from Station Casinos? We can hardly stand it, but we also can’t ignore it. It doesn’t get anywhere the buzz that the Oyster Bar at Palace Station gets, but we’ll take the Oyster Bar at Red Rock Resort anytime. It runs specials Mon.-Fri.; we tried the Tuesday Buck A Shuck and Thursday lobster rolls. 

Buck A Shuck

Strange as it may sound, there are people who don’t like raw oysters but do like raw clams. No problem, both are available for $1 per on Tuesdays (there actually is a discernable difference). This is the only place we know of in town that does the clams. Two of us ordered a dozen of each and split, both favoring the oysters. You can order in any quantity. Hard to beat.

oysters
clams

Lobster Rolls

Really, two lobster rolls for $10? Yes, and two different kinds at that (you can’t mix the two in the same order). The difference is typically that Maine is served cold and Connecticut hot. We tried the Connecticut and it’s good, but we’ll go Maine on future visits. It looks spectacular, but it’s more roll than lobster. To illustrate, this is what ours looked like before and after (from a waiter: “I see a lot of plates that look like that.”). Still, for ten bucks, no complaints.

Chowders

The RR Oyster Bar has both Boston (white) and Manhattan (red) clam chowder. We tried both over our two visits. They’re big servings that are loaded with clams for $11.99. Pictured here is the Manhattan, but we preferred the Boston.

Cool Place

Whereas you’ll almost certainly have to wait in line at the Palace Station Oyster Bar (we still don’t understand its popularity), there were plenty of seats available on both of our visits. The bar is sparkling clean. TVs are tuned to sports. The cooks, who work in the open kitchen behind the bar talk with the customers. The customers talk with the customers. It’s open-air onto the casino floor. Excellent setting.

Check the Jackpots

If you park in the garage, check out the scrolling jackpots screen when you get off the elevator. You see versions of this on chalkboards in bars, but not in casinos. We discuss it at length on our YouTube “Jackpots” show.

The Verdict

If you haven’t figured it out by now, we really like this place. It’s a trek from the Strip, but well worth it if you’re hankerin’ for any of these specials. And by all means, combine it with a bowl of chowder. We rate this the best oyster bar in Vegas. Look for us on a Tuesday coming soon.

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Strip Catches a Cold

Yesterday, Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg continued to insist that Everything Is Fine, despite serious indicators to the contrary. March was supposed to be the month in which gambling grosses ‘normalized.’ In Sin City they did nothing of the sort. Statewide, they were only 1% off last year’s pace, which can probably be shrugged away. But on the Las Vegas Strip they sagged 5%. Given the comebacks manifested by Downtown and the Boulder Strip, we would suggest that A) maybe things aren’t so fine on the Strip as Reeg imagines and B) consumers are looking for bargains elsewhere.

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Buffet Update – May 2025

Caesars Palace – Bacchanal Buffet: All buffet prices went up by $7. Weekday Dinner is Mon – Thur, 3:30 p.m.-10 p.m. is now $86.99. Friday Dinner is 3:30 p.m.-10 p.m. is now $91.99. Weekend Dinner is Sat & Sun, 3 p.m.-10 p.m. is now $91.99. Weekend Crab Brunch is Sat & Sun, 9 a.m.-3 p.m. is now $86.99.

Circus Circus – Circus Buffet: This week’s breakfast buffet is Fri-Sun, 8 a.m.-12 p.m. is $32.95. Then their dinner buffet is Fri&Sat, 4:30 p.m.-10 p.m. is $41.95.

Luxor – The Buffet at Luxor: Officially closed March 30.

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Musings About Being an AP

Bob Dancer

I was having dinner with two winning slot/video poker players when one of them, “Al,” asked, “What was the first AP movie you watched?” I knew he said AP to mean “Advantage Player,” but I wasn’t exactly sure what kind of movie he meant? “Do you mean like ‘Rounders?’” This 1998 movie starred Matt Damon and Edward Norton.

That was exactly what Al was talking about, and that particular movie was the first AP movie he saw. I’m almost 35 years older than he is and remember the 1965 Steve McQueen, Edgar G. Robinson movie, “The Cincinnati Kid,” which Al had never heard about. The third player, “Bo,” played pool in his youth and remembered seeing “The Hustler,” the Paul Newman, Jackie Gleason movie that came out in 1961. 

A number of other movies were mentioned, and eventually I mentioned “The Sting,” the 1973 movie starring Paul Newman and Robert Redford. “Absolutely not!” declared Al. “That movie centers around a con, and there are a number of dishonest activities portrayed. Being an AP means you win by your wits without cheating!” 

I wasn’t particularly surprised by Al’s point of view. Al is a deeply religious man who lives his life with integrity. If he thinks an action is even a little bit sketchy, he’ll avoid it. While I don’t agree with all of his decisions, I highly respect them. 

For me, I consider myself an honorable person, but I do take some “shortcuts” along the way. One of the problems with the idea of avoiding cheating is that the definition of cheating is vague. It’s a bit like what Supreme Court Justice Potter wrote in 1964 about a very dissimilar situation, “I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.” Except what you conclude and I conclude can be different. Some matters haven’t been decided by the courts. Sometimes good lawyers can convince the courts that something is legal while the casinos wish it had been decided the other way.

For example: I play many games. While I have most of them mastered, I have many of the “semi-memorized.” On my cell phone, I have a Word document that lists the correct strategies for these games. I sometimes look at this strategy during play. Officially, in Nevada, this just may break the device law, while looking at the same strategy written on a piece of paper does not. This doesn’t make sense to me, but it might be the law. I use the argument, “Casinos aren’t likely to prosecute this,” to give me license to do it. Is this cheating? Not to me, but others disagree. Bob Nersesian, the best-known attorney for player-casino disputes has said if I did this and the casino took action against me, he would refuse to defend me. “The law is clear about this,” he has said. 

Assume a casino allowed its players in the top tier to have one day a month of 5x points, where the player got to choose which day was most convenient for her. Also assume a husband-and-wife team were both members of this tier. On one day a month they’d both play on his card, and on another day that month they’d both play on her card. To me, this is a smart, AP move. It certainly isn’t what the casino intended. Is it actually cheating? Al would probably think so, but I’m not sure. He is an unmarried 40-year-old (he can’t find a woman he likes who is as spiritual as himself, and this is his number one criterion). He’s played right next to me when I’ve hit a jackpot on Bonnie’s card, and he heard me explain the situation to the slot attendant. (Usually it’s no problem, but if a casino tells me not to do that in the future, I obey.) Al has never said a reproving word to me about this and he still considers me a good friend.

Now look at the players who have cards from 30 different players and basically live in that casino, playing with 5x points on a different card every day. To me this is clearly cheating. What’s the exact line between doing it on a spouse’s card and doing it on cards from “business partners?” I can’t tell you, but it’s something I feel strongly about.

Let’s say I have $1,000 in free play to pick up at a casino, but I won’t be in town during the time period the free play is active. I have a trusted friend who would be happy to play quarter video poker for an hour to redeem this in exchange for a $100 fee. Even if the casino has no better than 6/5 Bonus Poker (worth about 96.9%), the cost of playing $1,000 through is only a little more than $30 in expected value which is dwarfed by the size of the bonus. Before discussing whether I would do this or not, also consider a second case where it’s the same situation but this time I have $5 in free play to pick up. Also assume the casino would not be happy if it discovered somebody else was playing on my card.

Morally speaking, it makes no difference whether it’s $1,000 or $5 we’re talking about. It’s breaking the casino’s rules. Al would avoid this in both cases. For $5, though, I’d give that up without a qualm and for $1,000 I’d at least think about it pretty hard. Historically I have sometimes hired people to collect free play for me. Not always, but more than once.

My thoughts on this general subject have evolved over the years. Since I’ve been publishing my thoughts for close to 30 years, someone interested in proving that what I’m saying now conflicts with something I said a number of years ago could find evidence to support his view. I’m more interested in telling it like it is for me now than worrying about always being consistent with every thought I’ve had in the past.

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Hockey Knights in Vegas Episode 108: It’s Playoff Time

Hockey Knights in Vegas is BACK!

Ten days into the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the first-round series are starting to take shape. Eddie & Chris offer a complete rundown of all eight series in a way only they can.

Which teams are playing to form? Which are on upset watch? Which are already dead and don’t know it?

If you’re a fan of impressions, Eddie offers up a couple of classics sure to get a laugh!

All that and an in-depth analysis of the VGK-Wild series on Episode 108 of Hockey Knights in Vegas!

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Bobby Vegas: A Break in the Blog Dam

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

I’ve been having severe medical problems over the last 9 months. After six trips to the ER/Triage, three surgeries and one under emergency conditions, and two months of catheters, I’ve lost 38 pounds. At several points in the process, my crew was very very concerned. So was I.

But I’m a tough old bird (it takes a lot to kill me), and though I’m not exactly bouncing back, I am up and grumbling.

I haven’t been publishing my blog every couple of weeks, which is another indication of how severe it’s all been. Writing this blog is an honor and a joy for this unrepentant old Vegas scuffler.

And now … sigh … my issues are exacerbated by flying, so I won’t be back in Vegas for at least another three months. I’ve got plenty to write about, but I’ll be pining for video poker, the dance floor at the Pinky Ring, comped meals, and scoping out the latest “shews,” as Ed Sullivan used to say.

I can’t get to Vegas unless I drive. And I live in North Carolina. Before you ask, no, Harrah’s Cherokee just doesn’t do it for me.

In short, life has slowed me down in a way I’ve not seen in nearly seven decades.

Please bear with me. I apologize that I may be slow in responding to comments on my blog. Our system doesn’t alert me when a comment posts, so unless I sign in I don’t see them, some time for weeks. You can also reach me at bobbyvegas.com

Luckily, I still have plenty to write about. I continue to see deals getting better (eternal optimist that I am). I get offers from over a dozen casinos, including juicy mailers from the Rainbow. Treasure Island, Fontainebleau, and Plaza are sending creative deals, such as no resort fee, free parking, and in the case of the Plaza, all-inclusive packages starting at $125 night that come with two meals a day (Hash House a Go Go included) , unlimited drinks, and access to all the resort-fee amenities including free parking, pool, exercise access, and more. The Bingo deal is even better.

Is this a sign of prices stabilizing and deals getting better? Are you seeing good deals? If so, tell us about them, please.

Finally, last year I cut a deal with Anthony to create a downloadable-app phone version of Jean Scott’s fantastic Video Poker Scouting Guide, which I’ve cheered on in my blogs as it’s led me to literally thousands of dollars in video poker wins. We expect it to be up and running in May. Stay tuned.

And please, keep me in your thoughts and prayers.