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Advantage Evangelist—On Turning a Strip Slot Player to VP

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

I met Sean at the Pinky Ring when he asked if I wanted a drink from the $300 bottle of wine he wasn’t going to finish and wasn’t even close to hitting his minimum tab. I politely declined the wine, sat down, and ordered two Perriers.

Sean works in tech, lives in San Jose, and is a Vegas regular. At 45, he’s ready to retire.

Hopping on SW flights, he frequents Strip casinos, is often comped, likes slots and roulette, cigars, good food, and high-end fashion. He always brings a low-four-figure bankroll. High-limit $25-$50 slots and roulette or other high edge games are just fine with him.

Sean is, of course, the casino’s sweet spot.

Being an Advantage Evangelist, I fervently believed I could change that. “Have you ever played video poker?:

“No. I never bothered to learn.”

I liked Sean. And I knew advantage player revelations would turn him.

We started out with roulette. “I like playing my numbers.”

Okay. I wasn’t going to discuss the 18-month study and 45-page paper I’d written on non-linear recurrence theory in roulette or the work I’d done with the wheel-bias king Laurence Scott.

I started by steering him away from triple zero’s almost 8% house edge. “On that $50 game you were playing at Wynn, Sean? That’s almost $4 per spin you’re handing the house.”

“Really? Wow. But I got this really cute girl’s number while playing.”

Sigh. Cost of dating, I guess.

Later, we started searching out single zero. Yes, it’s still roulette, but at least the edge is 2.6% not 5+% or 8%.

I also discussed the concept of advantage play slots, but it was clear he didn’t want to work that hard to learn. So we went back to near positive-expectation video poker and strategy cards. Sean wasn’t intimidated and was willing to learn, even if his first reviews of strategy cards left him feeling like a fish out of water.

I kept it simple, 9/6 Jacks or Better hold-the-pairs simple. I also steered him away from Deuces Wild as I figured the high volatility would scare him off. And I felt like the lone monk in the jungles of Vegas, bringing just one soul out of the slot darkness — and into the fold of the Church of the Lower Edge of Advantage Play.

Revelations: “Prosperity is yours, my son! Read your strategy card! Learn what VPFree2 and the LVA gods have given you!”

And he started winning. Hitting his first $450 full house changed everything.

“So Sean, what about slots?”

“Slots?! Are you kidding? I’m never going back to slots!”

Praise Jean Scott and cash those TITO tickets, baby. I’ve found my mission.

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Leaving After Hitting a Jackpot

Bob Dancer

A friend of mine, “Sam,” plays advantage slots. He was describing a recent experience on a Buffalo game. There are literally dozens of varieties of Buffalo games — some beatable by knowledgeable players — some not. It’s not my purpose today to discuss which ones are beatable — and how. I understand that this upsets some of my readers who want me to tell them more about beating slots, but that’s not what I want to write about.

One feature of most of these games is that, in addition to the “regular” way of winning, if you’re dealt three gold coins, you get eight free spins. While those spins are being played, you can earn an additional five or eight free spins by being dealt two or three gold coins, respectively. Sometimes you can accumulate 40 or more free spins during this process. 

During these free spins, the wild card symbols get multipliers. Your biggest scores come when you get one or more buffalos in the first column, wild cards with multipliers in the second, third, and fourth columns — and if you’re really lucky, more buffalos in the fifth column. The wild card multipliers work on other symbols in addition to buffalos, but usually it’s the multiplied buffalo symbols that provide the biggest wins.

It was one of these free spin situations that prompted Sam to talk to me. He was playing less than $1.50 per hand and after 56 free spins that started with three gold coins, ended up with an $1,800 jackpot. While other numbers in the game screamed “Play!” to the knowledgeable player, Sam decided to quit. After all, he argued, a jackpot this size is rare on games played for stakes this size. Hitting two or more such jackpots close together is rarer still. So, he decided to lock up his win and quit. 

He asked my opinion on his decision.

I told him I would have continued to play. While these machines return a certain amount over time, “time” is measured in the hundreds of thousands (or more) hands. His recent jackpot has nothing to do with the short-term expectation on the machine. Since the indicators said to play, I would play. I walk all over casinos looking for such opportunities.

Sam also plays video poker. On several occasions, he has hit a royal flush, four aces, or other sizeable jackpot and continued to play. He accepts that in video poker one hand doesn’t influence what is coming next, but somehow, he thinks it’s different in slots.

Video poker is a game of skill, he correctly argues. There is skill in identifying the pay schedule and in playing every single hand. Slots, argues Sam correctly, are largely luck. Although there is skill in determining if various progressives on a slot machine make the game worth playing, and leaving the game after certain things happen, the basic playing of the game requires no skill at all. You hit the button and take what you get.

While most slot pros quit playing a slot machine when one or more progressives on the game are reset, hitting one of these free spin bonus rounds doesn’t count as a progressive being reset. These free play bonus rounds simply give you ammunition to continue playing. 

Sometimes a jackpot is hit during the free spins, and in those cases, you usually should quit playing after the free plays are finished. At a minimum, you should re-evaluate and see if conditions remain ripe for continuing.

I never thought of this as a particularly subtle point, but Sam is a knowledgeable, winning player and he had it wrong. So, I decided that some of my readers could benefit from a discussion.

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Back to business …

But first, a quickie Oscar update. A major upset appears to be brewing in Hollywood. Last night, Conclave took Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Why is this significant? Because this award has foretold four of the last five Best Picture winners at the Academy Awards (Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Oppenheimer). So we’re pushing our chips to the middle of the table and saying put them on Conclave (+225). Also, I’m Still Here has pulled (decisively?) ahead of Emilia Perez for Best International Feature, -140 to +110. Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming …

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Panino

In August, Yelp issued a list of the Best Sandwich Shops in All 50 States and Nevada’s was Panino, an Italian deli on S. Decatur and Sunset Road. We have to admit, the selection abashed us a bit, since we’d never even heard of it! Then again, we’re not familiar with every little mom-and-pop eatery in town and this is definitely one of those.

Of course, it went on our list. We got there a couple of months later and now we know why it earned the lofty distinction over such Vegas favorites as the Goodwich, Capriotti’s, All’Antico Vinaio, Earl of Sandwich, and plenty of others.

Panino (“Sandwich” in Italian) is a flagship of a small local fleet of eateries owned and operated by an Italian-Argentine and his wife; the Zucchiatis have lived in the U.S. for 20 years and in Las Vegas since 2017. Food-industry veterans, they know exactly what makes a great sandwich. First and foremost, the bread. Here, Italian hard rolls, French-style baguettes, and marble rye are baked fresh every morning and Panino smells like it, along with the distinct aroma of a great deli, which hits you when you enter. Second, the meats, cheeses, veggies, and sauces are top-notch and third, the bread and ingredients all work together in perfect harmony.

Panino being an Italian deli, we were compelled to try the classic meatball sub, the first item on the extensive menu. The meatballs came in thin slices and there was just enough marinara to make it tasty; it wasn’t sloppy or hard to eat. The toasted roll was crisp and crunchy on the outside, but not too hard, pillow soft on the inside, and held up well to the marinara. Exceptional chew! And here’s the clincher: Half the sandwich was plenty for us, but we kept eating till we finished. We couldn’t stop!

It was also the least expensive sandwich on the menu at $15.95. The most expensive is the Philly cheesesteak at $18.50. Even the pastrami melt, which comes with a pound of meat, plus cheese, peppers, onions, lettuce, tomato, pickles, and garlic sauce, is only $16.50. Other interesting combos include the chicken pesto, chimichurri-drenched steak, pulled pork, French dip, spicy Italian, and turkey, cranberry, and cream cheese.

Panino also serves soups and salads (Caesar, Cobb, Greek, antipasto, wedge) for $15-$19, pastas (ravioli, tortellini, gnocchi, lasagna) for $14-$16, 10 flavors of housemade gelato, plus cannolis, tiramisu, and Napoleans. Of course, stuffed to the gills from the sandwich, we’ll have to return to try any of the other offerings.

The storefront is casual, cluttered, and busy; while we ate at one of the seven tables, a steady stream of mostly working guys arrived for a hearty and affordable lunch.

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Codfather

This fish & chips joint (a.k.a. “chippy”) opened in July 2020 out in Henderson during the dark days of the pandemic. It flew beneath our radar until it made a little news by closing last July due to problems with the building it was leasing, then reopening in October in a larger space in the same shopping center.

Our go-to spot for fish & chips is, of course, Crown & Anchor, so we thought we’d compare the Codfather’s with our tried and true.

Owned and operated by a native of Sheffield (in the north of England around 40 miles south of Leeds), the Codfather serves a limited menu of Brit faves that are nothing if not authentic. You have your choice of breaded (gluten-free available) and deep-fried cod, catfish, and vegan ($14.95) or haddock ($16.50) with hand-cut chips (fries). These are big fat juicy and tasty pieces of white fish. Get a side of gravy for your chips or curry sauce for your fish, along with cole slaw and the classic British side dish, mushy peas ($2.75). Codfather also offers clam chowder ($4.95/$6.95), mushy pea fritters ($4.95), poutine, cod butty (sandwich), and the Kevin (vegetarian pot pie), all around $10.

mushy pea fritters
cod and chips

We sampled the cod and chips and mushy pea fritters and all we can say is, “In Cod We Trust!” Everything, including the fries, was as good as we’d hoped. We thought one of the individual condiment packages that came with it was ketchup, but it turned out to be malt vinegar and that was even better. The Codfather’s wares definitely stack right up there with Crown & Anchor’s.

Our bill came to $21.57 with tax and that fed two of us for lunch. Though it’s a trek out to the location on Green Valley Parkway near Sunset, we weren’t sorry we made the effort.

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Fearless Oscar forecast

If you feared an Emilia Perez sweep after its staggering 13 Academy Award nominations, fret not. This year’s Oscars looks like it’s going to be one of those years where there’s a little something for everybody, unlike last year’s Oppenheimer juggernaut. Indeed, Emilia Perez has gone into a spectacular odds eclipse and will be hard-pressed to take home more than one or two little gold men. Instead, in a moment of head-shaking WTF, the odds-on favorite for Best Picture is …

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Atlantic City warms up

OK, so sports betting got walloped. Other than that, Atlantic City had nothing to complain about last month. January casino revenues hit $210 million, 2% better than the year before and 18.5% higher than in 2019. Evidently Covid-19 sharpened gamblers’ appreciation for the Boardwalk. iGaming actually outstripped brick-and-mortar casinos with $221.5 million. Are we starting to see a day when iGaming will be so ubiquitous and prosperous that land-based casinos become glorious (expensive) anachronisms? We sure hope not … but take nothing for granted.

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Change in Point Structure

Bob Dancer

The ROW casinos, the Caesars Rewards properties in Reno, recently changed their point structure. For some of the machines that contain the loosest video poker, Tier Credits (TCs) and Reward Credits (RCs) are now earned at one point per $20 coin-in versus the former $10 coin-in. Although the ROW consists of the Eldorado, Silver Legacy, and Circus Circus equally, for practical purposes this new rule only affects the Eldorado because that’s where the loosest video poker machines are. 

They did a similar change about two years ago. Many players boycotted these casinos because of the change and after two or three months, the former $10-per-RC system was reinstated. It’s possible this will happen again, I suppose. We’ll see. These casinos seem to struggle to attract players. Tightening the slot club can’t possibly be the way to attract more players.

Although this specific change only affects one property, and most of my readers are not players at this particular location, similar downgrades happen at other casinos all the time. The question becomes: How does a player evaluate whether to continue playing there or not?

The Caesars Rewards system is complicated — and each property has slightly different rules than its sister properties. The difference between RCs and TCs is not quickly grasped by many players. In many cases they are earned at the same rate, but they aren’t the same. RCs may be redeemed for comps, sports bets, or, at a two-for-one rate, free play. TCs can’t be redeemed, but determine whether you are Platinum, Seven Stars, or any of the other tier levels. 

The old $10-per-point system made RCs earned by playing video poker worth 0.1% in comps. Cutting that in half means that they are now worth 0.05% in comps. That’s not a big change. If you normally play $20,000 in coin-in in a day, the $20 in comps you previously earned now becomes worth $10. If you redeemed the RCs for free play, the $10 in free play you used to get now becomes worth $5. Other than being ticked off that it’s not as big as before, that’s not enough of a difference to cause most players to quit playing.

But what about if they had 5x or 10x points? Well, that could be different. This casino used to have Mystery RC multipliers every Monday, with a limit of 30,000 RCs. Whatever multiplier you receive, it will now take twice as much play to earn that limit. Time will tell if that is going to be cut back on this promotion or not. 

There are TC multiplier promotions as well. In addition, there are daily TC bonuses. Players earning 1,000 TCs in a day get a 1,000 TC bonus. Players earning 5,000 TCs in a day get a 10,000 TC bonus. That’s the biggest daily bonus offered. Whereas it used to take $50,000 coin-in in video poker to earn the maximum daily bonus, it now takes $100,000. For most players, this is out of the question.

If you play enough to earn a lot of TCs, for every 250,000 you earn, you receive one Seven Stars Experience Credit. There are a number of things you can redeem these for. The most attractive to me is $450 in free play at properties in Las Vegas or Cherokee. For the same play, Reno video poker players will end up with fewer Seven Stars Experience Credits in 2025 than they earned in 2024.

The basic Seven Stars target of 150,000 is harder to get. I find it valuable. The major benefits are five $100 food credits, one $1,200 travel to any other Caesars property including $500 in resort credit, and a highly discounted 7-day cruise for two on Norwegian Cruise Lines. Most properties have some sort of a daily benefit if you have Seven Stars status. 

These properties all have monthly mailers giving you free play, rooms, and resort credits (which are not the same as Reward Credits.) These are generally based on your average daily theoretical. If $1,000 worth of play gives you the same ADT as it did before (even though it gives you half as many RCs and TCs), then the mailers shouldn’t change. We’ll see.

The bottom line, for me anyway, is not the number of dollars coin-in required to get a RC. It’s the promotions and the mailers. If the promotions and mailers stay the same, I’ll continue to play at the ROW, at least sometimes. If they get slashed as well, I won’t. 

The change in the rate of RC and TC being earned is a much smaller change than reducing the pay schedule by one unit. I’ll put up with NSU Deuces Wild with the lesser rate, but if they cut that game by 0.8% to the pNSU game, I’ll likely stop playing there.

It’s the package of benefits (the game, the slot club, the promotions, the mailers) that matters to me, not the individual components of it. Any reduction in benefits is unwelcome, but small reductions are not necessarily showstoppers.