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State of the Union

Casinos in the Midwest are showing some resilience. In Illinois, they were up 1.5% in August, That’s impressive but the real headline is that they did 8% less on a same-store basis, showing that all the new gambling capacity has not yet been absorbed. Pictured above is the new design for Bally’s Chicago. It’s that thing in the lower middle that looks like a computer printer. Its progenitor, Bally’s Casino in downtown Chicago, did $10.5 million last month, not overwhelming but good enough for fourth place in the state. Or is that good?

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Sometimes You Have to Guesstimate

Bob Dancer

The big key to winning at video poker and other gambling games is to only play when you have an advantage. Sometimes, though, it’s hard to know whether you have the advantage or not — or even how to measure that advantage.

Casino drawings provide one example. The casino agrees to give away such and such prizes. If you knew how many tickets were going to be in the drum, how many tickets you were going to end up having, and the value of the prizes, you could figure out what your EV was in the drawing. Factoring in how much coin-in it cost you to earn that many tickets and you can figure out your percentage return. Even if you could calculate it at 0.2%, it comes with a high variance. Usually, you don’t get drawn. Occasionally you do.

But you don’t usually know how many tickets are going to be in the drum, nor the exact number of tickets you’re going to end up with. And sometimes you don’t even know how much the prize is worth. Cash or free play is pretty straightforward. But what about if the prize is a car? Sometimes there’s a cash option, at 75% or 80% of retail, but not always. It might be a specific vehicle, or it may be a voucher for $25,000 (or any other amount) at such and such dealership.

What if it’s a Chevrolet dealership and you hate Chevies? Or if it’s a Toyota dealership and you practice a “Buying American” philosophy? Hard to put a number on these things.

What about comps? Some casinos offer you a certain amount of comp dollars, but these are hard to value as well. There are usually a limited number of outlets at which you can spend your comp dollars. If you get $100 to spend at the gift shop, if there is nothing there you want or what is there is greatly overpriced compared to what you can buy it for elsewhere, that comp is hardly worth $100.

You may earn enough comps to eat at one of the gourmet rooms, but what if this isn’t the kind of food you enjoy or is on your diet? Even if it is food you enjoy, if you have $200 to spend (eat it or lose it), you’ll probably use most of it up even if your typical dinner costs far less than that. You might decide a $40 tip is warranted on this meal while your typical dinner with tip might be $50. Is this comp worth $200 or $10?

The South Point casino regularly runs promotions where you play a certain amount and earn one or more spins where each spin is worth between $5 and $100. (The exact rules vary each time, but are often similar to this.) If you don’t know how much average spin is, how are you going to put a value on the promotion?

For me, since I play approximately a breakeven game at the South Point (99.7%+ games and a 0.3% slot club) before the promotion and mailers, any additional free play is welcome, but not needed to justify playing. I’ll come in on the days you can get the spins (if I’m in town) and collect the extra money, but the promotions aren’t sufficient for me to play extra. Whereas unlimited double points just might be.

I do not put a value on room comps, although I definitely use them when out of town. If I weren’t there, I wouldn’t need a room, and I can’t “cash in” the value of the room. (Or, rather, I don’t. Years ago, I sometimes sold room nights, but not anymore.) A suite is appreciated over a regular room, but if the game isn’t more than 100% without the suite, I stay away.

In Vegas and many other cities, there are professional sports teams and some casinos offer you tickets to the events — often premium seats with amenities. Were I someone who would buy tickets to these events, this is a comp worth money and I would conceivably play a slightly-under 100% game to score the tickets. Since I basically have a “I’ll take the tickets if they are offered, but I wouldn’t go out and buy them” attitude, I don’t factor this into whether a game is playable.

Sometimes there is a jewelry or some other giveaway that attracts Bonnie’s eye. I’ll play extra for that. I don’t put an exact value on “keeping Bonnie happy,” but it is definitely something worth investing in. So I do.

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Rotten to the Wynncore

Uncle Sam just came down like a ton of bricks on Wynn Resorts. Making history in a way it would prefer not to, Wynn has agreed to pay the largest fine ever leveled on a casino company. It will have to cough up $130,131,645 to settle an extensive money-laundering case that brought together the Department of Homeland Security, the IRS and the DEA. Amazingly, the federal probe flew completely under the radar until early this morning, perhaps because we were all distracted by the ongoing scandal at Resorts World Las Vegas. Whatever the case, Wynn got clotheslined hard for its risk-friendly business stratagems.

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Boyd to the rescue; A.C.’s dog days

That credibility-challenged, glacially paced casino project in Norfolk suddenly has 100% more viability. This morning it was announced that Boyd Gaming was stepping in to save the Pamunkey Tribe‘s bacon. After five years of rearranging the deck chairs, the Pamunkey are no closer to breaking ground on their Virginia pleasure palace—until today. True, the city council could still queer the pitch, but what are the chances it would balk at a deal that finally gets the casino built after so much tribal hemming and hawing. As Mayor Kenny Alexander said, “Bringing in Boyd—someone with the ability and the wherewithal and experience and more importantly the financial strength to build a world-class casino resort hotel—is exactly what we need.” True that.

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End of an Era

Bob Dancer

Bonnie and I regularly fly to Reno to play at Eldorado — which, along with Silver Legacy and Circus Circus, are called the ROW. While the casinos physically remain separate, they are connected on the second level by walkways passing over the streets that run between the casinos. All three ROW casinos run the same promotions, use the same slot tickets, are considered “one place,” and are part of the Caesars Rewards system.

The game we’ve been playing at Eldorado has been $10 Triple Bonus Poker Plus (TBPP). Although this game has cleaned my clock in 2024, I hit three royals in 45 days in 2023, and overall, my score has been reasonably close to expectations. The game has a variance very similar to Double Double Bonus, and as players of that game know, that game leads to heaven or hell results. Within the past year, they also removed $1 and $5 Super Aces Bonus (SAB) poker, which has a slightly higher return and a much higher variance than TBPP.

Without going into great detail about their promotions, suffice it to say that Bonnie and I regularly got on an airplane from Las Vegas to go play there.

Although the next loosest game is NSU Deuces Wild, I don’t believe the casino removed SAB and TBPP in order to have a tighter floor. They removed the games because those particular games were only found on decades-old IGT machines. The casino decided, correctly, I believe, that they needed to upgrade their floor with newer machines. For whatever reason, IGT has decided not to have those particular pay schedules on their newer machines.

Under the video poker management at IGT, many high paying video poker games have been removed from their inventory. And when new games are created, IGT has, at times, refused to release them with pay schedules looser than 99%. At more than one Global Gaming Expo trade show, the manager of IGT video poker told me he believes that very few, if any, slot directors mind that the games are tighter now. I’ve responded to him, fruitlessly, that some casinos choose to offer loose games some of the time. IGT’s refusal to supply those games is a slap in the face to players. I’m sure he at least listened to me, but then decided not to do as I requested.

So the loosest high limit Eldorado machines are a bit tighter than they used to be. This doesn’t affect many people, but it does affect Bonnie and me. However, we’ll still go and play there. While not as good as it used to be, that casino still offers a good enough “game plus promotions” combination for us to get on an airplane to go play it. 

Comparing a game to what used to be and isn’t coming back is a fool’s game. You need to compare a game to games currently found elsewhere. And by that criterion, Reno here we come!

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Strip catches July chill, locals hot

Catastrophic baccarat results (-66.5%) put Las Vegas Strip gambling revenues on ice last month. Although $727.5 million was wagered on the volatile game, casinos won only $64 million. That’s a measly 9% hold and a big comedown from the $190 million won in July 2023. Baccarat is the house’s Achilles heel and July 2024 was an example of how big swings at the tables can help ruin a quarter. Overall, Strip casinos took home $709 million last month, a 15% plunge year/year. Other table games were actually decent, up a point at $226.5 million despite 14% less wagering. Slot machines were a wash at $419 million, but coin-in was down 4%.

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Emmitt’s Vegas


Emmitt’s is named for its founder and major partner Emmitt Smith, the National Football League’s all-time leading rusher and touchdown scorer. This restaurant was a long time coming to the Fashion Show Mall. But it finally arrived in March and ever-curious, we stopped off during “social hour” (4-6 p.m. daily) to see what it’s all about.

The main challenge is finding the place. It’s at, but not in, the Fashion Show and no signs direct you there. Located in the very front of the mall, it borders the Strip sidewalk and you have to go outside to access it. (Follow the signs to Abercrombie and Fitch; from there, follow signs to Plaza/Las Vegas Blvd., then go out the door and down the stairs. The Blue parking lot in the garage underneath is closest.)

The restaurant seats 105, with a private back room for 36 and 10 tables on the front patio. Everything revolves around the central 22-seat bar and the nearby wine fridge holds 1,000 bottles. The menu is described as “new American classics with traditional steakhouse offerings and sushi,” but it seemed to us that sushi dominates the actual menu, which is different than the virtual one online, indicating more of a steakhouse. Also, lunch was announced and offered for a while, but discontinued. Social hour is advertised as 3-6, but Emmitt’s doesn’t open till 4.

And though the reviews are uniformly laudatory, when we were there on a Wednesday evening from 5:30 to 6:30, the place was empty, except for us and three other people at the bar.

We weren’t there for dinner, which is as expensive as you’d expect from a restaurant right on the Strip, just the social hour, during which the choices are a burger and fries ($11), hanger steak and fries, and a tuna and California roll with edamame ($22); seven draft beers, including Heineken, are $4 each and wine by the glass is half-price.

We tried the burger and were allowed to substitute a Caesar salad for the fries. Gracious, especially for a happy hour. The big fat patty, cooked to perfection, comes with lettuce, tomato, pickle, and caramelized onion on a toasted brioche bun — an excellent advertisement for the food at Emmitt’s and a great deal on its own. That, the salad, and the Heineken came to all of $17.34 with tax and we walked away satisfied and impressed.

Though the scene at Emmitt’s is somewhat sparse (a number of online reviews comment on the lack of patrons) and the changing menu and hours are a bit mystifying, when this place settles down and grows into itself, it should do well —if it lasts that long. While it’s there, the social hour is definitely worth doing.